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Week One Suicide Pick?


ChampSampson
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I'm confused by your "best line out there" comment... Are you looking for a "lock" to win straight up this week, or to actually cover? For a survivor pool, as much as I think the Pack will probably win this week, I'd stay away from that game. There are certainly better "lock" games to choose from... New Orleans at home against a rookie QB and the Lions, for one. Might be a shootout, but NOS should win easily. There are several other good choices in BAL vs. KC, NEP vs. BUF, or SDC @ OAK (although I tend to stay away from road games if possible for survivor contests... anything can happen when you're in the other team's back yard).

 

Of course, you also want to take a look at those teams' schedules, and see which teams you're least likely to have to pick down the road. I wouldn't look too far ahead (I try to take contests like this one week at a time, taking the best choice each week), but it's a good way to decide between 2-3 teams with fairly even odds. I've been burned a few times by passing on a sure winner to "save them for later" and taking a lesser favorite, so I would advise not to get too caught up in looking at schedules... just use it as a way to "break a tie," so to speak.

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For what it's worth, here are this week's current odds to win:

 

Bengals(Cincinnati) -230

Vikings(Minnesota) -220

Texans(Houston) -230

Colts(Indianapolis) -320

Saints(NewOrleans) -850

Cowboys(Dallas) -260

Falcons(Atlanta) -210

Ravens(Baltimore) -800

Eagles(Philadelphia) -140

Giants(NewYork) -290

Seahawks(Seattle) -370

Cardinals(Arizona) -260

Packers(GreenBay) -220

Patriots(NewEngland) -700

Chargers(SanDiego) -500

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I took the Saints for week one.......last 2 years I have gone one and done.....but i feel pretty good about that pick in the dome!

 

Let me play devils' advocate here...I realize this is the Lions we are talking about but every week there's at least one trap game in Survivor leagues. This is the one that scares me the most as on the surface it looks like a blowout...but with the Saints you've got a D that gave up a lot of points to teams last year and was extremely inconsistent, granted the O bailed them out on numerous occasion...but that O is coming into the year with quite a few question marks...off-season injuries/surgery/rehab to Bush, Pierre, Colston, Moore and Shockey. Their starting OLT (Drew's blindside) Brown is out this game with a hernia and will be replaced with 3rd stringer Bushrod, and they lost FB Sobomehin for the year (they did get FB Heath Evans from NE so that's some consolation) . TE Billy Miller is on IR which means that should Shockey get hurt, they'll have to rely on newly acquired TE David Thomas, who looks to be even more fragile than Jeremy if that's possible as he's pretty much set out the last 2 season with injuries. And most importantly is Mike Bell being expected to carry at least half the rushing load, that guy is likely to sprain his ankle or knee during warm-ups...

 

The defense could be without starting DEs Smith and Grant if their suspension holds up...

 

Detroit on the other hand has no where to go but up from last year...there's really no game film on Stafford except for college games and some pre-season so who knows what he'll look like. NO better hope he doesn't resemble Ryan or Flacco from last year. Kevin Smith looks good as does Calvin Johnson...I think if the Lions (can't believe I am saying this) get fired up and play above themselves it could be a closer game than a lot of people believe...

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Your news is from Tuesday the 8th...this is from ESPN yesterday...

 

Minnesota suspensions lifted doesn't hold for Saints players...

That was the second part that they would play tomorrow, but be suspended after that.

 

From the link:

 

Although Minnesota’s Kevin and Pat Williams had a victory Friday in their lingering battle to avoid suspensions, it doesn’t sound like that’s going to help New Orleans defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant.

 

A federal appeals court ruled the two Vikings can ask a state court to overturn four-game NFL suspensions by claiming a violation of Minnesota drug-testing laws. Grant and Smith have been cleared to play in Sunday’s opener against Detroit, but the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports the judges upheld a previous ruling that the NFL didn’t violate any federal laws with the suspensions.

 

That could clear the way for Grant and Smith to be suspended early next week.

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That was the second part that they would play tomorrow, but be suspended after that.

 

From the link:

 

K...thanks for the clarification :wacko:

 

Still, it's a defense that gave up almost 400 points last year and the Lions players have had all off-season to hear how bad they were last year...I just wouldn't be surprised if they showed up pissed off for this one...

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FWIW- The league we run at work so far (55 entries)

 

1- ARZ, ATL, INDY, NYG, PIT, SEA

2- Cincy

3- MIN

4- NE

6- SD

14- BAL

20- New Orleans

 

We allow Sunday/ Monday "rebuys" as well so we'll get a few for SD and NE tomorrow I suspect

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Thanks for the replies. I was away from my computer to respond...but I was able to read everyone's feedback via mobile viewer!

 

Despite the NOR love, my pool plays ATS, that meaty of a line always scares me (even if its Detroit). I did go with GBP over the CHI, and got a good sweat. GG Jennings! Better yet...GG Jay Cutler....lulz.

 

 

 

See everyone week 2!

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