Grits and Shins Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 (edited) Every week there will be players that perform way above the general expectations. Every week there will be players that perform way below the general expectations. Every week there will be fantasy owners scrambling to pick up that week's top performer free agents. Every week tehre will be fantasy owners panicing about the sub-par performance of their studs. With just 1 week under our belts it is difficult to identify any trends. So here are my Real Deal / One Week Wonders of the week. Joe Flacco was the third highest scoring QB in my local league this week with 25.08 points. While I was impressed with Flacco's rookie campaign I just felt like there were a number of factors that would make him a somewhat pedestrian QB (fantasy wise) - I mean come on he plays for Baltimore and when have they EVER had a consistently good passing game? So after week 1 do we think Joe Flacco is the real deal ... or a one week wonder. I tend to lean toward one week wonder with more upside that I had originally thought. Peyton Manning was ranked very high in all the pre-season polls but was the 12th highest scoring QB in my local this week with 15.04 points, behind such players as Brodie Croyle and Byron Leftwich. Obviously those owners that drafted Manning probably drafted him in one of the first four rounds of their draft with much higher expectations. In years past I might have attributed this somewhat pedestrian showing by Manning to a stout Jacksonville defense combined with a stout Jacksonville run game and a week Indianapolis run defense ... but I haven't considered the Jacksonville defense to be 'stout' anymore. Now normally I would have said that this was a one week blip performance but I do have concerns about the loss of Anthony Gonzalez. We a small reservation I think this week was a one week blip. Willis McGahee was UNDRAFTED in my local league and finished with the 4th most points scored this week by a RB in my local. Obviously there was concern about a RBBC in Baltimore with further speculation that Ray Rice would be the #1 option. Digging deeper into the stats Ray Rice does appear to be the number 1 option between the twenties while McGahee will be an option at the goal line and in relief. I think McGahee is a one-week wonder. I also think he could have several more one-week wonder weeks ... except that nobody will be able to predict which weeks are the wonder weeks. I wouldn't be comfortable starting McGahee on a regular basis. LaDanian Tomlinson was taken in the first 5 picks in most leagues. This week LT was the 23rd best RB in my local. - not a high return on your top 5 draft pick. Many say he has lost a step despite his 5 YPC average in last night's game. So whether you think he has lost a step or not, one thing seems clear - all the carries from years past and his age are catching up with him making it hard for him to stay healthy. So - was it a one week blip? As an LT owner I must say that as I watched the game last night I was very concerned that LT is NOT the real deal I thought he was - largely because he can't stay healthy. Without the rolled ankle I would say 1 week blip ... but with the injury I'm going to say this will be another down year for LT. Patrick Crayton was somewhat of an unknown commodity this year. Everything down in Dallas was pointing to much more emphasis on the running game. Then the departure of TO left lots of questions around which WRs would fill the starting spots and how effective the passing game would be without a true number 1 WR. Obviously the Dallas passing game looked very healthy (in the 2nd half) on Sunday and Crayton was a big part of that success. So one-week wonder or real deal? I think Crayton is the real deal, but we shouldn't be fooled into thinking he will put up numbers like last week in every week. Terrell Owens has always had tons of talent and always excelled in his first year with a new team. In that light he was generally ranked in the top 10 to 15 WRs to be drafted. Personally I had him lower than that as I had my reservations about Edwards' ability to get him the ball. TO scored 6.6 points in my local league which ranked him at 57th best WR. So was this just a one-week blip? I must admit that Trent Edwards looked okay Monday night but I still have reservations about the Buffalo passing game. I expect that TO will generally do better than he did last night but will not perform to his ADP. Jason Witten was just about the universally ranked best TE going into this season (fantasy). Dallas threw for 300+ yards on Sunday of which Witten managed to snag 5 catches for 71 yards and no TDs (12.10 points in my local) making him the 14th best TE in my league in week 1. Can we expect Tony to continue to spread the ball around giving Witten just enough to be a tantalazing start or will Witten become the top TE that he was last year (fantasy wise)? I think Dallas is going to continue to try to use the WRs more meaning that this week's performance from Witten will likely be his average performance for the year with occassional weeks where he out performs his average. Robert Royal was sent from Buffalo to Cleveland and has to try to fill the shoes of recently departed Kellen Winslow. Royal was UNDRAFTED in my local league and scored 16 points finishing 7th amoung TEs this week. Was this just an oversight in my league or was this a one-week wonder by Royal? Royal was targeted 9 times by a team that has proven they like to throw to the TE position. Then when you consider that Quinn is essentially a rookie QB and looked to be using Royal as his safety value - I think we are looking at the real deal here. Pittsburgh was the first defense taken in all of my leagues this year, including my local. They finished as they 14th best defense in week 1. In my opinion one of the things that has made the Pittsburgh defense so strong in years past has been the ability of the offense to grind it out on the ground allowing the defense to remain fresh. Pittsburgh's inability to rush the ball combined with the loss of Troy for a couple of weeks gives me concern that this defense will not be the top defense. I wouldn't sell just yet ... but I would be having some concerns. Atlanta was mostly an after thought defense in my drafts and were undrafted in my local. They finished the week in my local as the 2nd best defense with 20 points. Was Miami that bad or was Atlanta that good ... or are we somewhere in between? As I mentioned above I believe a strong running game helps the defense by taking time off the clock allowing the defense to remain fresh. Atlanta has all the appearances of having a strong running game AND a strong passing game (something they never had with Vick) making them a more balanced and stronger overall team. I think Atlanta is the real deal. Having said that they won't score at the same pace every week as they did in the first week. There were quite a few other candidates that could have been considered ... but I limited it to two per position. Feel free to comment or add your own players. Edited September 15, 2009 by Grits and Shins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pope Flick Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 Willis McGahee was UNDRAFTED in my local league and finished with the 4th most points scored this week by a RB in my local. Obviously there was concern about a RBBC in Baltimore with further speculation that Ray Rice would be the #1 option. Digging deeper into the stats Ray Rice does appear to be the number 1 option between the twenties while McGahee will be an option at the goal line and in relief. I think McGahee is a one-week wonder. I also think he could have several more one-week wonder weeks ... except that nobody will be able to predict which weeks are the wonder weeks. I wouldn't be comfortable starting McGahee on a regular basis. And that would mean...he isn't a one week wonder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorcher Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 That was very helpful, and well put, thanks. I hope you will post next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkinssssss Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 how did these players do in your local? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 As far as Manning is concerned, the Colts turned the ball over on two drives deep into Jaguar territory. One was a terrible INT thrown by Peyton from the 2 yard line. The other was an Addai fumble. If the Colts had turned those into points . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDFFFreak Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 Fred Jackson is the guy I am awfully curious about. He looked very good out of the backfield for the Bills last night. It'll be interesting to see what happens when Lynch comes back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexgaddis Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 5.2615684464516 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 Fred Jackson is the guy I am awfully curious about. He looked very good out of the backfield for the Bills last night. It'll be interesting to see what happens when Lynch comes back. I always felt that Jackson was the better fantasy back between the two....but I wasn't sure how well he pass blocked which is the tipping point of a RB starting and being the backup.... but he seemed to hold up pretty well the other night... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonorator Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 dude, it would be totally aces if you started your own site with this stuff ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt770 Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 Hate to continually pimp one player, and a player on a team I root for no less, but Mario Manningham is going to continue to see a lot of targets every week for the Giants. Eli loves the kid and will be throwing it his way as often as possible. I definitely see him progressing enough this season to be a viable starting fantasy WR by mid-season. Perfect bye-week replacement, with upside to be a solid #2/3 WR come fantasy playoff time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynCrew Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 Great thread... these names are bouncing around in my head too.... I agree with adding Fred Jackson and Mike Bell to this list... how do they pan out when the 'real #1' rb's are healthy available... I tend to see TO as a decent WR #2 from this point on... You can likely count on him for 40-70yds per week, with 5-7 td's... who know, maybe more... but that's right around 900-1000yds for the season and a handful of TD's... yeah, probably not enough for where he was drafted, but decent numbers if you set expectations... I start Peyton every week without blinking... same for Witten... yeah there will be ups/downs but I'm solid on those guys. I really like Flacco this year, not to continue replicating what we just saw, but defenses cannot simply stack the run against Baltimore anymore. He's the real deal and its getting better. The Atlanta D is not that good, but the strength of their offense will help that D tremendously. It was also a decent matchup, they will have tougher weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfish247 Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 Atlanta's D will be pretty nice depending on the format. As long as Abraham stays healthy, ATL's D will rack up sacks and turnovers but cede yardage and some points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt770 Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 Hate to continually pimp one player, and a player on a team I root for no less, but Mario Manningham is going to continue to see a lot of targets every week for the Giants. Eli loves the kid and will be throwing it his way as often as possible. I definitely see him progressing enough this season to be a viable starting fantasy WR by mid-season. Perfect bye-week replacement, with upside to be a solid #2/3 WR come fantasy playoff time. Hope you Huddlers already snagged him last week or have a high waiver priority this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynCrew Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 Hope you Huddlers already snagged him last week or have a high waiver priority this week. I had Steve Smith on my bench as a backup wr, but after mulling it, I went and picked up Super Mario (dropping my bye week defense) early last week. I'm real real happy I did so. He keeps getting better, and slips tackles like a magician. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 Hope you Huddlers already snagged him last week or have a high waiver priority this week. picked him up on Friday. Unfortunately, I didn't start him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 I definitely see him progressing enough this season to be a viable starting fantasy WR by mid-season. Hope you Huddlers already snagged him last week or have a high waiver priority this week. Even you said he wouldn't be a viable fantasy contributor until midseason....why would we sign him last week (unless you have incredibly deep rosters, a hugh league, or your team is desperately thin)? He looks like he is ready for primetime right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LayLow Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 McGahee is safe to start every week until he gets hurt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steelhead Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 I picked up Robinson instead of Manningham. Oh well. Just saw this thread and like to say Thanks to Grits et al. Some good stuff here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 McGahee is safe to start every week until he gets hurt. +1 That team is built to move the ball in small steps, and if McGahee is getting the looks inside the 20, he will have a Marion Barberesque type of season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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