When did things turn around for you?

[Big John]

Who is "Brentastic"?

A Chicago huddler. Known for folk music and popping grilles.

[electricrelish]

Good advice, thanks for a great post! Wish i had done that from the beginning. Who is "Brentastic"?

 

Yeah, I have to agree. This year was the first year I ever even started keeping up with the off-season. The only reason I did was because I joined a dynasty league that had their veteran draft in February. The schedule had not even come out yet for cryin out loud. You just keep reading as much as you can about the latest news and decide whose opinion you trust. Mike Mayock has pretty good judgment about rookies. Don't listen to Peter King regarding fantasy. He will fall in love with practice fodder. I also tend to stay away from players that I got burned on in the last year. I also read these forums and after a while, I find myself changing my mind based on the some of the threads here. Lots of folks were high on Steven Jackson this year, and Seahawks21 and STL Fan helped changed my mind with their thread discussions on him as well as some other forums that I read from time to time.

 

There's really no set formula for winning - other than get the players who score the most points and play match-ups. In redraft leagues, I don't like to spend an early pick on a QB, because I've won that way, but others have won picking a QB in the first round. If you play in a PPR, then I think you need to get elite receivers (at least one). And I've always had to get lucky with an unexpected late pick or waiver wire pickup. My first year lucky waiver wire pickup was Tony Romo in the middle of the season that led me to a championship. Last year, was drafting Matt Forte who just kept consistently producing while Joseph Addai and Willie Parker were injured on my bench. Tyler Thigpen and Tashard Choice were huge pickups for me that I played in my championship game and won with. You can't be afraid to bench your stars. In the end though, I think a lot of it comes down to drafting players you like and playing players you enjoy rooting for. One year, I decided to draft loud-mouth troublemakers, so I drafted T.O. and Randy Moss. That was the year that no one wanted Moss after his horrible year in Oakland. People were making fun of me, but I thought the Patriots would be good for him. And we all know the rest of the story. He got into more trouble with that girl...but I digress. Rooting for players you like. That's what makes it fun for me.

Edited September 18, 2009 by electricrelish

[Scorcher]

C'mon guys, 31 posts and 11 from me. Tell us your secrets, or give us your best advice, what was the turnaround for you?

[electricrelish]

C'mon guys, 31 posts and 11 from me. Tell us your secrets, or give us your best advice, what was the turnaround for you?

 

 

OK, here's another obvious one. Pay attention to the weather. Now, don't get carried away. Last year, I was debating on whether to start Tyler Thigpen late in the season because everyone was yappin about how windy it was in KC. I posted here an hour before the game and got a response from a guy who lives in KC, who said that the wind really wasn't that big of a deal and to go ahead and start him. I did, and he played well, and it made a huge difference. The weather is important, but don't go overboard with it. Realize that NE is most likely not going to sling it around in heavy snow.

Edited September 18, 2009 by electricrelish

[tomfin2000]

This is my ninth season, but things turned around for me in my fifth year. I've been consistent since then. I rarely have a team with a losing record, I usually make the playoffs, and I've won at least one championship every year since 2005.

 

I think the biggest change I made is that I stopped trying to be clever early in drafts and started focusing on estabilshed players that had a proven track record or young players that were surrounded by established players with a proven track record. A put a premium on consistency which is why Reggie Wayne has been on both of my keeper league teams since the beginning of the 2006 season.

 

On the flip side, I don't want a bench filled with players that have proven themselves to be mediocre. While most of my starters are experienced veterans in the prime of their careers, most of my bench is made up of young first and second year players with upside.

 

Another intangible is that I will always value talent over opportunity. That's why you'll see me avoid guys like Julius Jones, Jamal Lewis, and Cedric Benson like the plague and snap up guys like Felix Jones and Ahmed Bradshaw. Sometimes I'm wrong like I was last year when I shunned Thomas Jones and sometimes guys like Felix Jones and Bradshaw don't pan out, but it seems to work out for me more times than not.

 

Last, but not least, I've learned not to ignore the red flags. If a player is going to be a bust, you're usually going to get a few red flags during the preseason. Sometimes it's the player's performance, sometimes it's injuries, and sometimes it's the player's team as a whole, but if you're watching carefully, the signs are usually there.

[Scorcher]

This is my ninth season, but things turned around for me in my fifth year. I've been consistent since then. I rarely have a team with a losing record, I usually make the playoffs, and I've won at least one championship every year since 2005.

 

I think the biggest change I made is that I stopped trying to be clever early in drafts and started focusing on estabilshed players that had a proven track record or young players that were surrounded by established players with a proven track record. A put a premium on consistency which is why Reggie Wayne has been on both of my keeper league teams since the beginning of the 2006 season.

 

On the flip side, I don't want a bench filled with players that have proven themselves to be mediocre. While most of my starters are experienced veterans in the prime of their careers, most of my bench is made up of young first and second year players with upside.

 

Another intangible is that I will always value talent over opportunity. That's why you'll see me avoid guys like Julius Jones, Jamal Lewis, and Cedric Benson like the plague and snap up guys like Felix Jones and Ahmed Bradshaw. Sometimes I'm wrong like I was last year when I shunned Thomas Jones and sometimes guys like Felix Jones and Bradshaw don't pan out, but it seems to work out for me more times than not.

 

Last, but not least, I've learned not to ignore the red flags. If a player is going to be a bust, you're usually going to get a few red flags during the preseason. Sometimes it's the player's performance, sometimes it's injuries, and sometimes it's the player's team as a whole, but if you're watching carefully, the signs are usually there.

 

 

 

 

This is good advice, the one quote you made that really impressed me was about your bench. I have always filled my bench with people that I think are going to break out later. While they sit on my bench, I keep losing thinking I am going to have a great run at the end, but it never happens. Thank you for this input. I think this has been one of my greatest errors.

Edited September 18, 2009 by Scorcher

[BOARHOGZ]

I have notcied that over the last 2-3 years as everyone has started using "draft software" it's gotten a bit tougher. I think that the software has started to put the lazy people on par with those of us who actually devote some time to research, planning, etc.

 

Now you can plug in your scoring system, the number of teams, and have a computer draft for you...blah.

 

Im still using excel spreadsheets and highlighters and the other 11 guys have laptops.

 

Next year I resolve to sit down and learn how to use "software".

[BOARHOGZ]

maybe next year I'll toss a hamilton DMD's way and he can just draft for me. Might as well. I'm a little PO'ed I guess at the software...I'll get off my old-school soapbox. Its all about the hamiltons.

[Scorcher]

maybe next year I'll toss a hamilton DMD's way and he can just draft for me. Might as well. I'm a little PO'ed I guess at the software...I'll get off my old-school soapbox. Its all about the hamiltons.

 

 

 

Fill me in here, I can understand how you feel about software doing the job, and I honestly agree with you , it takes the hard work and special knowledge out of the game. I have to ask you one question, and I'm serious, "What are Hamiltons"? Maybe I'm just not computer savvy.

[Big John]

Fill me in here, I can understand how you feel about software doing the job, and I honestly agree with you , it takes the hard work and special knowledge out of the game. I have to ask you one question, and I'm serious, "What are Hamiltons"? Maybe I'm just not computer savvy.

A $10 bill. Has Hamilton's portrait on it.

[electricrelish]

Fill me in here, I can understand how you feel about software doing the job, and I honestly agree with you , it takes the hard work and special knowledge out of the game. I have to ask you one question, and I'm serious, "What are Hamiltons"? Maybe I'm just not computer savvy.

 

This year was the first time that I used software called Draft Dominator from footballguys.com - free with a membership. It's neat because it can import your rules from an MFL league. It's just easier for me than printing out cheatsheets. I used it help me organize, and it makes best value recommendations based on the scoring, but I don't agree with it a lot of the times. I also have thehuddle's cheatsheet and other sites up and compare all the recommendations. I wouldn't say it's necessary, as this is the first year I've ever used it, but it's a fun little toy.

[Shaman]

I think my meteoric rise in fantasy football started in 2008 when I joined the huddle forum and the comradery of all the people I talked to here really gave me that final boost into immortality that I had been lacking the first 19 years I played.

ad verecundiam

[electricrelish]

A $10 bill. Has Hamilton's portrait on it.

 

I like.

[Scorcher]

I like.

 

 

 

Don't be so hard on an old homeless person if he had said "Members Only" I would have gotten it !

Edited September 18, 2009 by Scorcher

[BeachBum]

Care for an honest reply?

 

I've learned that you need to know your league's scoring system! I hear many arguments here about which system is best, but what really matters is to pick players that fit your league's system, whatever it is.

 

If QB's are overrated, say with 6 pt TDs, pick some good QBs. If WRs get 1 pt per recpt, pick some good WRs, if TEs get 1.5 PPR or 1.5 per 10 yds, get some good TEs. If you get extra points for distance of TD, look for players who are more likely to score long TDs. If PKs get extra points for over 50 yd FG, look for the longer FG guys.

 

This is how I've done well in local leagues since 1995. In BOTH leagues, as we keep moving scoring systems to all be the same, and we all get the same data to analyze, it becomes more of a crap shoot. In most, some do better than others, but we mostly center around a norm, with luck (OK, picking the right sleeper who actually ends up starting, or not picking the stud who gets hurt in week 3), playing a big part in who actually wins.

 

Yeah, pick the players who will score the most points - in YOUR LEAGUE's scoring system!

[electricrelish]

One of my secrets that I feel that gives me an edge over my competitors is my inside knowledge on the NFL player's wonderlic scores. I have a source who has been able to provide this information to me, as well as the baseball 2003 steroid list, and some great Cuban cigars. Surprisingly, you don't want to draft the players who have really high wonderlic scores like Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who scored a 48 out of 50. This isn't the chess club that you're drafting for. You need guys who are smart enough to read a defensive coverage, but also dumb enough to stay in the pocket and take a hit every so often. Steve Young scored a 33, which is above average, but not too smart that you couldn't have a beer with him after the game and just hang out and shoot the sh@#t. You don't want your QB to have too low of a score either. Vince Young scored a 6. Need I say more?

 

According to Sports Illustrated scribe Paul Zimmerman, here are the average scores for each position that you should shoot for.

 

* Offensive tackle - 26

* Center - 25

* Quarterback - 24

* Guard - 23

* Tight end - 22

* Safety - 19

* Linebacker - 19

* Cornerback - 18

* Wide receiver - 17

* Fullback - 17

* Halfback - 16

 

I also make a point of learning all the wonderlic scores of my competitors in each league that I'm in. I tend to make a lot of trades with those that fall into a certain scoring range. If they've never taken it before, I give it to them myself by mixing some questions in normal forum conversation posts and private messages such as the following:

 

 

• Which RB should I start?
  
• Paper sells for 21 cents per pad. What will 5 pads cost?
  
• Which WR has the most upside?
  
• A boy is 16 years old and his sister is twice as old. When the boy is 22 years old, what will be the age of his sister?
  

 

 

Leave your link and I'll answer yours.

 

Hope this helps.

Edited September 18, 2009 by electricrelish

[Scorcher]

Care for an honest reply?

 

I've learned that you need to know your league's scoring system! I hear many arguments here about which system is best, but what really matters is to pick players that fit your league's system, whatever it is.

 

If QB's are overrated, say with 6 pt TDs, pick some good QBs. If WRs get 1 pt per recpt, pick some good WRs, if TEs get 1.5 PPR or 1.5 per 10 yds, get some good TEs. If you get extra points for distance of TD, look for players who are more likely to score long TDs. If PKs get extra points for over 50 yd FG, look for the longer FG guys.

 

This is how I've done well in local leagues since 1995. In BOTH leagues, as we keep moving scoring systems to all be the same, and we all get the same data to analyze, it becomes more of a crap shoot. In most, some do better than others, but we mostly center around a norm, with luck (OK, picking the right sleeper who actually ends up starting, or not picking the stud who gets hurt in week 3), playing a big part in who actually wins.

 

Yeah, pick the players who will score the most points - in YOUR LEAGUE's scoring system!

 

 

Good point, a lot of times people look for the studs overall with out looking at the scoring system. Thanks for a good reply, and mostly thanks for answering.

[Double Agent]

I started having a lot more fun with FF when I realized it was more dumb luck than skill.

[The Mucca]

One of my secrets that I feel that gives me an edge over my competitors is my inside knowledge on the NFL player's wonderlic scores. I have a source who has been able to provide this information to me, as well as the baseball 2003 steroid list, and some great Cuban cigars. Surprisingly, you don't want to draft the players who have really high wonderlic scores like Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who scored a 48 out of 50. This isn't the chess club that you're drafting for. You need guys who are smart enough to read a defensive coverage, but also dumb enough to stay in the pocket and take a hit every so often. Steve Young scored a 33, which is above average, but not too smart that you couldn't have a beer with him after the game and just hang out and shoot the sh@#t. You don't want your QB to have too low of a score either. Vince Young scored a 6. Need I say more?

 

According to Sports Illustrated scribe Paul Zimmerman, here are the average scores for each position that you should shoot for.

 

* Offensive tackle - 26

* Center - 25

* Quarterback - 24

* Guard - 23

* Tight end - 22

* Safety - 19

* Linebacker - 19

* Cornerback - 18

* Wide receiver - 17

* Fullback - 17

* Halfback - 16

 

I also make a point of learning all the wonderlic scores of my competitors in each league that I'm in. I tend to make a lot of trades with those that fall into a certain scoring range. If they've never taken it before, I give it to them myself by mixing some questions in normal forum conversation posts and private messages such as the following:

 

 

• Which RB should I start?

• Paper sells for 21 cents per pad. What will 5 pads cost?

• Which WR has the most upside?

• A boy is 16 years old and his sister is twice as old. When the boy is 22 years old, what will be the age of his sister?

 

 

Hope this helps.

 

 

Isn't he a Mormon? Not sure if he drinks Beer or shoots Sh@t.

[Brentastic]

Pay very little if any attention to all the posts in here from July-August.

 

For redrafts, a week of prep work is enough.

 

Reading posts from people just looking to make a post about a training camp injury, didn't look good in practice, etc....worthless.

 

If Brentastic likes a running back as much as he loved Maroney last year, stay far away.

 

Draft and don't sweat it. As far as which players will rise to the top.....SWSWSWN.

 

In fairness, I didn't draft Maroney in any leagues and was more or less sucked into an argument which made me harden my stance. I was also high on DeAngelo Williams and DID draft him in every league, FWIW

[electricrelish]

Isn't he a Mormon? Not sure if he drinks Beer or shoots Sh@t.

 

That's why I never trade with you. You're too informed.

[Brentastic]

I started having a lot more fun with FF when I realized it was more dumb luck than skill.

This is definitely NOT true. I place in the money pretty much every year in every league I'm in, that is not luck. Just like good poker players are not lucky. There is definitely a skill on knowing what to look for to increase your probability on drafting the right players. Is there some luck? Of course, but not as much as some like to think.

[Double Agent]

This is definitely NOT true. I place in the money pretty much every year in every league I'm in, that is not luck. Just like good poker players are not lucky. There is definitely a skill on knowing what to look for to increase your probability on drafting the right players. Is there some luck? Of course, but not as much as some like to think.

 

Of course there is a skill. And maybe I shouldn't have typed "more than." But this is a game of probabilities. The skill is research and plugging in the players that have a better chance of scoring. But ultimately no one knows how the game will go...including the players that have studied game film.

[Valhalla]

Started doing research in June or July. I focused on offensive lines a lot more in addition to talent, because I truly believe it affects players more than you think. I developed a good draft strategy based on the 10 and 12 man leagues I'm in. Nothing can combat players getting hurt other than being proactive on the waiver wires.

 

I don't have time to watch college football - life is just too busy. What I will do with all the young RB's when scouting them for a rookie keeper league I'm in is watch their Youtube highlights. By doing this last year I knew that Forte was going to be good in Chicago's scheme, which helped me win a few ESPN leagues as well. I got him late in almost every one.

 

I also dumped another pay site for this one. I'm not trying to kiss ass, I just think the advice is way better over here.

 

I still swing and miss on a few players from time to time, but it is MUCH improved than about 5 to 6 years ago when I didn't do any research and just based my drafting on years past.

[matt770]

Agree with Valhalla on o-lines, that is often overlooked. Some strategies I use:

 

I pay close attention to training camp and read everything I can get my hands on. I want to understand every team and develop a solid informed opinion about every player, not just what I've heard, but what I think each player will do that year. That is key. When I do my rankings I start with Rhino's sheet and move players up and down accordingly. I tend to devalue players with a history of injuries more than most, and players with attitude issues or brushes with the law (Marshall is a classic example).

 

For each league I'm in, I tier all the players based on that league's scoring and compare how different positions are worth more than others, and how scarce the top performers at each position are. That helps me determine when to take a QB or a defense, for example. For roughly the first half of the draft, I go after players I expect to receive the most carries/targets/opportunity and be consistent performers, then in the later rounds I roll the dice on the upside guys.

 

As I've gained more experience I've learned to visualize how I expect a player's season to unfold by looking at his supporting cast, his history, coaching staff, scheme, and schedule. In some cases it is glaringly obvious that a player is ranked way too high or too low by the masses, and those are the times when FF gets that addictive quality for me. Outsmarting 11 other guys is a great feeling. Occasionally a tidbit of info on the Huddle has come up big (Colston ).

 

During the season I evaluate my team every week, against the players available on the WW. I try to resist the urge to pick up too many players early unless I have a glaring weakness or injury, or if I know the guy I'm picking up will be money. This is so I can move up the WW and be the first to pounce when the stud RBs get injured. I've seen a lot of leagues won by teams who whiffed in the draft but worked the WW aggressively and picked up 1-3 key players who came out of nowhere. In a few cases that team was mine.