When did things turn around for you?

[The Wolf]

I've never done one. How do they help you?

 

Have you ever finished a draft and in evaluating once it's completed, you said "if I knew so-and-so would have been there in the 5th, I'd not have reached in the 3rd on this dude," or something to that effect? Mock drafts are like do-overs...they're practice so you can spot trends (as they change from year to year) and allow you to practice drafting from a particular spot (say, the spot you're drafting from in your local). If you have your eye on some sleepers, where did they go in the mock? You can then gain some insight on how your draft may go and where you can take certain players.

 

They're dry runs, basically. The more you take part in, the better off you can be in your decision-making.

 

Make sense?

[Ballin’ boo]

I also make a point of learning all the wonderlic scores of my competitors in each league that I'm in. I tend to make a lot of trades with those that fall into a certain scoring range. If they've never taken it before, I give it to them myself by mixing some questions in normal forum conversation posts and private messages such as the following:

 

 

• Which RB should I start?

• Paper sells for 21 cents per pad. What will 5 pads cost?

• Which WR has the most upside?

• A boy is 16 years old and his sister is twice as old. When the boy is 22 years old, what will be the age of his sister?

 

 

Leave your link and I'll answer yours.

 

Hope this helps.

 

I only know two answers and the others two I’ll have a go at:

 

 

1. Walter Payton is the running back you should start

2. The five pads of paper will run you $1.05.

3. Lynn Swann is the wide receiver with the most upside

4. The sister will be 44 when the brother is 22. My question is how old are the parents?!

[gandalas]

I only know two answers and the others two I’ll have a go at:

 

 

1. Walter Payton is the running back you should start

2. The five pads of paper will run you $1.05.

3. Lynn Swann is the wide receiver with the most upside

4. The sister will be 44 when the brother is 22. My question is how old are the parents?!

 

Not sure if you were serious on #4 or not, but the answer is actually 38 for the sister, not 44...

If the boy is 16 and the sister is twice as old, that would make her 32. When the boy is 22, that would make the sister 6 years older as well. 32 + 6 = 38 years old.

[MTSuper7]

I noticed a turn around when I started paying attention to:

 

1) Owner trends: I started looking at which owners in my leagues favored which positions / players so that I could adjust my draft strategy accordingly. Knowing the owners in your league is key, and getting a look at the last few draft results from the last few years can help give you some insight. It also gives you an idea of generally when tier 2 QBs start getting drafted, TE runs start, etc.

 

2) Team changes: This includes personnel changes, new defensive or offensive scheme changes, players moving to new teams (and how they fit), etc. to get an idea of how that team's performance will change. The player production will be directly affected by this info. It helps when looking at which players you think will be better this year and which will be worse. This alone has helped me avoid pitfalls like Braylon Edwards last year and Antonio Bryant this year (jury still out on him I guess, but not looking good so far).

 

3) How/why we tier players: I used to make it up as I went along using the cheat sheet du jour, but I would deviate enough to get value here or there when it presented itself. But I didn't win my first FF championship until the year I truly understood the reason for tiering and how to do it. I usually will use someone else's tiers to start with, then move the players how I see fit based on my feeling for what their value will be for the upcoming season. I watch enough football, read enough analysis, etc. to generally have a feel for it. But it wasn't until I started tiering players myself that I was more easily able to identify value picks falling to me during my drafts. And tiering based on each unique leagues scoring system was also an important step.

[Ballin’ boo]

Not sure if you were serious on #4 or not, but the answer is actually 38 for the sister, not 44...

If the boy is 16 and the sister is twice as old, that would make her 32. When the boy is 22, that would make the sister 6 years older as well. 32 + 6 = 38 years old.

 

Thanks nerd!

[MTSuper7]

I think FF and poker has a lot in common. I think in any one year or in any one hold em tournament luck has a lot to do with who wins. Sometimes you just can't avoid a bad beat you have AA the guy has KK and you get it all in only to see a King hit the board. Same thing if your 1st and 2nd round picks both blow out their knees before the season gets very far.

 

But over the course of several years and several tournaments skill becomes the over riding factor. Why do you think you see so many familar faces at final tables ?

 

If luck was such a big factor how in the world could have I gone 7-7 or better in all 19 years in my original league I started in 1990 and made the playoffs in 17 out of those 19 years ? Over the long haul I have been succesful but in any one year I may not have been but a .500 or better record in 19 straight years has to say something about skill vs luck.

 

In my dynasty league the same thing I have gone 7-7 or better all 12 years. I made the playoffs 11 times and won 5 titles. Seems like skill over the long haul is a big reason for success.

 

So in any one season or tournament I agree luck can be a big factor but over several years and several seasons the cream usually rises to the top.

 

I would equate the AA vs. KK analogy to the hard luck of facing coach of the week a lot during a given season. I have had average teams go 10-3 because I was lucky enough to face teams on a down week more often than not. On the flip side, I've missed or nearly missed the playoffs with stacked teams.

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

You can't change luck.