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Luck in Fantasy Football


Jackass
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Ok, so i've been thinking a lot about luck in fantasy football. Admittedly this is because i'm 4-4 in my big money league yet i have the most points and without bragging my team has been put together with near perfection. Believe me, this doesn't happen every year, but it has so far this year and i'm not getting rewarded for it. The guy in first has the 3rd lowest point total, and quite honestly this is really pi$$ing me off. In some ways, luck playing a role does add something to some leagues because it allows people who aren't fanatics to compete. With that said it just seems that there's got to be a better way of scoring to make fantasy football better. I know there is the option of total points leagues but that takes away from the week to week matchups that are a good part of the enjoyment of watching each week. I suppose i'm just ranting to some extent and not expecting any groundbreaking thoughts because they would've been offered up already. Guess i'm just throwing this topic out for discussion.

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I had a year like that last year. I had to fire my defensive coordinator. You have to judge your success based on your career, not indiividual seasons The better fantasy players find themslves in contention more often than not and ultimately wind up ahead in their pocketbooks.

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I agree, H2H Leagues are a big part luck, and it can be maddening. That's why I did no H2H's last year, but I did cave and decide to give a H2H League a second chance this year, and it's going alright - I'm #1 in points scored, but tied for 3rd at 5-3. I'm in two points Leagues, one which awards a weekly money prize, so that keeps the season exciting week to week. But I do prefer the marathon, where the sum total of your player's success determines your finish, rather than the luck of happening to score more points in a given week against the randon team you happen to be put up against. It's a mystery to me why H2H's are so overwhelmingly more popular than points leagues.

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In my biggest $ league the guy in first place's average points against per week is 22 points lower than mine. That means on average the team I'm playing against scores 3.5 TD's more than the teams he's playing.

 

So yeah, there's a lot of luck. . . or in my case, unluck.

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...I'm just ranting to some extent and not expecting any groundbreaking thoughts because they would've been offered up already. Guess i'm just throwing this topic out for discussion....

If you prefer blondes, then date blondes; red heads, then date red heads. If it's not frustrating, then why play every week (not to mention all the off/pre season work? Maybe, you just need to add a few additional leagues, so your life doesn't crash and burn based on the results of one league. In any event, sack up and spare us.... :wacko:

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In one of my locals we changed the winnings like this a few years ago to counter that problem:

 

20% High score

10% 2nd high score

Weekly high score gets $10

 

70% gets paid out like usual - divsions winners, champion etc...Everybody is really happy with it.

12 teams, $100 entry, $3 pickups, it usually goes over $1500.

You win both, you win big.

Edited by Outshined
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H2H leagues are the epitomy of luck. So much of the outcome is based on scheduling. I absolutely hate H2H formats. There's always going to be some luck in fantasy with injury and such. But, yes, H2H are nothing but luck in most cases.
So what do you prefer, total points? I look at it the opposite way. Last i checked the NFL doesn't send teams to the playoffs based on how many points they scored in the regular season.. I think it's silly to send a team to the fantasy playoffs based on total points too.
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This year more than ever.

 

Guy in 1st is 6-2, but second to last in pnts. While I sit with 4 others at 4-4 in 6th (2 @ 5-3) but 4th in pnts. 3 out of the top 4 pnt leaders are 4-4. :wacko:

 

Last week he had the second lowest pnt total.....and of course won. The week before the 3rd lowest.

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The majority of leagues I play in reward total points as well as wins, therefore if I get enough points I will make the playoffs regardless of bad luck in scheduling. I find these types of leagues the fairest at removing "luck" from the equation. The best format in my opinion is the "value point" system, where you get 2 points for a win, 2 points for top 4 weekly score, 1 point for weekly 5-8 score. This system rarely leaves out a team that deserves to be in the playoffs.

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So what do you prefer, total points? I look at it the opposite way. Last i checked the NFL doesn't send teams to the playoffs based on how many points they scored in the regular season.. I think it's silly to send a team to the fantasy playoffs based on total points too.

 

This analogy always seems so dumb to me. This is not anything like a H2H matchup in the REAL NFL. It is completely random and based not on you or your teammates or coaches actually performing, it's based on a bunch of made-up numbers. In the real sport, H2H should mean everything because you actually went out there and manned up. In FANTASY sports, H2H has nothing to do with how good you are, and should have nothing to do with how successful you are.

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Solution- Add a post-season slot based on breakdown record. In my local H2H league, we added a breakdown slot for the post season very early on. It works great and adds a lot of drama to the end of the season. Most importantly, it ensures that no one gets REALLY unlucky and misses the playoffs with a very good team. Our post-season teams are: 4 Division winners (top two get a bye), the next 2 Best Record teams, and finally... One Breakdown Entry. The team with the best, season-long Breakdown Record (that is not already in the post-season based on record or a division win), gets into the postseason as the 6th (lowest) seed.

 

So, if you score well every week but you are unlucky with losses and have a bad W-L record, you still have a chance to compete in the post-season. This is probably my favorite feature of this league. Feel free to use it...

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I thought that was the whole point of H2H fantasy, that regardless of who your players or your opp players are, you had a chance to win. If the best team on paper is virtually guaranteed to win...why play?

 

H2H also takes out that freak weak or 2 where one team simply explodes in points, skyrocketing to the top in a points only league. Consistent play is how you win in the NFL...and that's how it should be in fantasy...but that's just my opinion.

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So what do you prefer, total points? I look at it the opposite way. Last i checked the NFL doesn't send teams to the playoffs based on how many points they scored in the regular season.. I think it's silly to send a team to the fantasy playoffs based on total points too.

 

 

totally agree - H2H isn't perfek but at least it gives you a matchup week to week, and it adds some excitement coming into the Sun night and Mon night games that total points scored would not do.

 

Basing of total points scored would be boring and lame, most leagues do reward you for high score.

 

I dunno, in my leagues H2H always seems to do a good job of getting the best teams into the playoffs........

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I think people are just hating H2H more this year because it seems like every week there are a handful of players that absolutely explode in points. If you started Palmer the one day that he threw for 5 TDs you are probably going to win that game. If you had him in your lineup every week you are probably below average in the QB category and playing from behind. It just seems like it's feast or famine more than normal (and I thought a few of DMD's articles said the same with statistical info). :wacko:

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The majority of leagues I play in reward total points as well as wins, therefore if I get enough points I will make the playoffs regardless of bad luck in scheduling. I find these types of leagues the fairest at removing "luck" from the equation. The best format in my opinion is the "value point" system, where you get 2 points for a win, 2 points for top 4 weekly score, 1 point for weekly 5-8 score. This system rarely leaves out a team that deserves to be in the playoffs.

 

I like this or a variation of the WCOFF format of determining league playoffs.

 

Top spot goes to highest record.

2nd spot goes to most points scored of remaining teams

3rd spot goes to best record of remaining teams

4th spot goes to most points scored of remaining teams.

 

 

Heading in to last week, in our league, this would have resulted in the top 3 teams in record and the 3rd to last team in record making the playoffs, of those, it also encompassed the top 3 scoring teams and I believe the 6th highest scoring team.

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My 14 man league has 6 teams make the playoffs with two divisions. The two division winners get byes and the division runner-ups play against the wild card teams and the winner would get to play the division leader. This year I proposed that the the division winners and runner-ups would still be the same and the two wild card winners would be the two teams with the most points... My idea was shot down...

 

And of coarse, now i am 4-4, in eigth place, and looking likely to miss the playoffs, despite having the most points in the league... :wacko:

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Breakdown record = how you stack up vs each team, each week. I think this is the most accurate way of determining a successful season. Far better indicator than H2H record or total points, imo. We keep the H2H format and 4 divisions, mostly because we all know each other and we like the week-to-week matchups and trash talking.

 

We use breakdown record to determine the last playoff spot. (not record or points)

We use H2H breakdown as a one-on-one tiebreaker if needed. (H2H breakdown=your record against one team if you played them each week of the season.)

 

It seems to work very well.

 

In our keeper league, there are no divisions and no H2H. Breakdown record is the only record. H2H breakdown for tie-breakers.

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