BillyBalata Posted November 4, 2009 Share Posted November 4, 2009 Luck plays a part regardless . . . H2H or not. Anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves. Look at all the studs with great matchups who fail to produce while some unknown pulls a Ryan Moats. Look at all the touchdowns called back for a hold, dropped endzone passes that would have pushed you over the top. Injuries that you have no control over can kill you. There are some variances, but teams that consistently score higher each week (well constructed teams) tend to beat poorly constructed teams. I enjoy H2H and would never bother with a pure number league. I find that poopy dull and devoid of personality. I'm leading my division in points and have the best record. Both are due to luck more than skill. Some weeks despite Huddle predictions, I see the league bitches knock off top dogs. I wouldn't have it any other way. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 Luck vs. Skill in FF I compare it to poker. you are looking for consistency. You can start with a pair of Aces and end up losing. While there are some elements of luck - someone who consistently plays well with end up on top end the end and of course will run across a few bad beats on the river Did you read the linked to article and just copy it? If luck weren't involved, I guess I'd win every year. Thank you, Phil "Henry Muto" Hellmuth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeachBum Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 How about this angle - in your league you draft well, but injuries suddenly start to happen to you. You can start to dig out the FAs, make a trade, work your way back into contention. In a Points only league (and probably a All-Play) you might now be out of serious contention, but in a HTH you might be 1-4, and still build back up to win, say 7 out of 9 and make the playoffs. There your newly assembled lineup, with the careful attention to weeks 15 and 16, dominates the playoffs, you win! That is not LUCK, that is the essence of FF - working your way through the system, whether the system is the draft, the scoring rules, or the rigors of HTH. The luck comes in a total points contest, where usually the least downside, like injuries, wins, not necessarily the best overall managing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfer Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 whew I was going to make the poker-FF comparison, looks like someone jumped in there. But look at it like this, sitting down at a poker table for 2 hours, or playing a 13 game season of FF, is just short-term luck. In the long run poker is 100% skill, the best players get all the money. I see this in my leagues as well, the saviest owners make more playoff appearances than the 'average' owner. In-season it's mostly luck, but over time schedules/injuries balance out and the most consistent owners win. Luck in the short run, skill in the long run. I know it feels like 100% luck when Slaton fumbles his job away, but over time your decision-making and roster management will start to win out...just don't ask me when the hell the long-run is.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 How about this angle - in your league you draft well, but injuries suddenly start to happen to you. You can start to dig out the FAs, make a trade, work your way back into contention. In a Points only league (and probably a All-Play) you might now be out of serious contention, but in a HTH you might be 1-4, and still build back up to win, say 7 out of 9 and make the playoffs. There your newly assembled lineup, with the careful attention to weeks 15 and 16, dominates the playoffs, you win! That is not LUCK, that is the essence of FF - working your way through the system, whether the system is the draft, the scoring rules, or the rigors of HTH. The luck comes in a total points contest, where usually the least downside, like injuries, wins, not necessarily the best overall managing. Not luck? If you're able to trade a collection of worse players for better players, you are not just skilled . . . you're "lucky" to be in a league with weak owners. If the guys you pick up experience no further injuries, that is luck. It is lucky when your hunches are not derailed by other unforeseeable events. You know the sorts of unanticipated team changes, etc. that turn consensus 1st Round picks into mutts and late draft fliers into stars. If you're able to guess right, you are very lucky. Nobody has a crystal ball and if you've been doing this long enough, you've messed up bad on a lot of guys and got it right on a lot of guys. All you can do with study is increase your probability of success. But to say luck/probability is not at work . . . is ridiculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twiley Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 H2H leagues are the epitomy of luck. So much of the outcome is based on scheduling. I absolutely hate H2H formats. There's always going to be some luck in fantasy with injury and such. But, yes, H2H are nothing but luck in most cases. I'm 2-6 in one league and the second highest in total points. Yeah, H2H can blow at times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borge007 Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 Breakdown record = how you stack up vs each team, each week. I think this is the most accurate way of determining a successful season. Far better indicator than H2H record or total points, imo. We keep the H2H format and 4 divisions, mostly because we all know each other and we like the week-to-week matchups and trash talking. We use breakdown record to determine the last playoff spot. (not record or points) We use H2H breakdown as a one-on-one tiebreaker if needed. (H2H breakdown=your record against one team if you played them each week of the season.) It seems to work very well. In our keeper league, there are no divisions and no H2H. Breakdown record is the only record. H2H breakdown for tie-breakers. This seems, to me, to be the "fairest" way . I'll suggest this next year in my local league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
posty Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 Fantasy sports = 100% luck... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 Total points can also be a very luck based system. If a team has a really bad week, the chances of making the playoffs can go down the tubes. Let's say an owner started Garrard, Slaton, K Smith and a PK who gets two PAT's this past week. That one awful week can cost the whole season. In H to H, one bad week is easy to overcome. On the flip side, another team might have an incredible point total that same week, jump ahead by 150 points and and be in the drivers seat all because of one week. In H2H, one can also plan on drafting players who have the same bye week. Take a loss that week, but have a nearly full roster for the rest of the season. Total points rewards streaky inconsistant rosters. Just a couple of monster weeks while otherwise being on the lower half of the league in scoring all year is fair? Sooner or later, the best teams rise to the top in H2H. In all my years in this hobby, it is unusual to see a worthy team not make the playoffs. I've missed out on a bye to a lesser roster, but never the playoffs. The law of averages usually wins out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isleseeya Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 I would argue that the reason we prepare and draft is that we enjoy it, not that it makes a huge difference to the outcome of the season. How many times have you seen a guy win a championship with the team he drafted other than in Emmitt or Marshall some other guys amazing years where they won it themselves? And those seasons weren't won on drafting skill, but on the draft order. I'd bet your odds of winning the championship would be exactly the same (or damn close) if everyone autodrafted as they are now. I disagree with this completely no way would outcome be the same in my main competitive money leagues if we autodraft instead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isleseeya Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 Fantasy sports = 100% luck... Good info here ... save time and stop playing FF and just buy scratch off lottery tix instead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 Not luck? If you're able to trade a collection of worse players for better players, you are not just skilled . . . you're "lucky" to be in a league with weak owners. If the guys you pick up experience no further injuries, that is luck. It is lucky when your hunches are not derailed by other unforeseeable events. You know the sorts of unanticipated team changes, etc. that turn consensus 1st Round picks into mutts and late draft fliers into stars. If you're able to guess right, you are very lucky. Nobody has a crystal ball and if you've been doing this long enough, you've messed up bad on a lot of guys and got it right on a lot of guys. All you can do with study is increase your probability of success. But to say luck/probability is not at work . . . is ridiculous. No one is saying that luck is not involved. But, with the study and some application of knowledge of the NFL and the setup of your particular league (the skill part of FF), you decrease the element of luck and increase the amount of skill involved. Your statement "All you can do is increase your probability of success" confirms that skill is an element. If it was all luck, then there would be nothing you could do to increase your element of success, and we may as well flip a coin for everything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackass Posted November 5, 2009 Author Share Posted November 5, 2009 Total points can also be a very luck based system. If a team has a really bad week, the chances of making the playoffs can go down the tubes. Let's say an owner started Garrard, Slaton, K Smith and a PK who gets two PAT's this past week. That one awful week can cost the whole season. In H to H, one bad week is easy to overcome. On the flip side, another team might have an incredible point total that same week, jump ahead by 150 points and and be in the drivers seat all because of one week. In H2H, one can also plan on drafting players who have the same bye week. Take a loss that week, but have a nearly full roster for the rest of the season. Total points rewards streaky inconsistant rosters. Just a couple of monster weeks while otherwise being on the lower half of the league in scoring all year is fair? Sooner or later, the best teams rise to the top in H2H. In all my years in this hobby, it is unusual to see a worthy team not make the playoffs. I've missed out on a bye to a lesser roster, but never the playoffs. The law of averages usually wins out. When you draft a team you're picking players based on how they do over the course of the season. So the fact that your team has monster weeks and is 'streaky and inconsistent' is completely, 100% random. That's what total points tries to mitigate - Some of the luck and randomness of the scheduling. I'm not advocating that it's a great system b/c i haven't played in it, but there is definitely less luck involved. To me, i'd rather be rewarded for skill because i find it more satisfying to win a league where skill is rewarded. I do understand that for some people, they enjoy having as much luck as possible because maybe they don't want to spend a ton of time on fantasy football or whatever the reason, and i have no problem if you want to take that approach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 When you draft a team you're picking players based on how they do over the course of the season. So the fact that your team has monster weeks and is 'streaky and inconsistent' is completely, 100% random. That's what total points tries to mitigate - Some of the luck and randomness of the scheduling. I'm not advocating that it's a great system b/c i haven't played in it, but there is definitely less luck involved. To me, i'd rather be rewarded for skill because i find it more satisfying to win a league where skill is rewarded. I do understand that for some people, they enjoy having as much luck as possible because maybe they don't want to spend a ton of time on fantasy football or whatever the reason, and i have no problem if you want to take that approach. Are you implying that thee is no skill involved in analyzing players in the preseason, considering factors such as changes in situation, past performance, injury history and everything else that goes into that, applying that study to draft the best possible team taking into consideration the players you have already taken, the players remaining, the chances of said players making it to your next pick, etc. while factoring in bye weeks and risk/reward of players etc., then taking the team that you drafted and analyzing weekly situations, trends, current performance, etc. to make the decision of which of said drafted players to place into your starting lineup each week? And this is not even taking into account the study of available players to evaluate against your current roster to determine waiver moves to strengthen your team, etc. If you truly believe there is no skill involved in this game, then you would be willing to make every pick by drafting players by pulling names out of a hat and making every starting decision by pulling names out of a hat and you would have to think that this would give you just as likely a chance at success as the owner who does his research and applies it to his league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 Again, ditching the more fun version of FF where you get to compete against an opponent week to week in favor of the way that perhaps more fairly rewards the guy who put in the most work is the first sign that you're taking it way too seriously. It's a game, not a test of greatness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 Again, ditching the more fun version of FF where you get to compete against an opponent week to week in favor of the way that perhaps more fairly rewards the guy who put in the most work is the first sign that you're taking it way too seriously. It's a game, not a test of greatness. I must take this way too seriously then. When money is on the line, it is no longer a game, it is an investment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 (edited) I must take this way too seriously then. When money is on the line, it is no longer a game, it is an investment. That's silly. You want an investment? Find a $10 an hour job and spend as much time at that as you do playing FF. I can almost assure you you'll come out with way more scratch than even a FF player who usually wins. Edited November 5, 2009 by detlef Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 That's silly. You want an investment? Find a $10 an hour job and spend as much time at that as you do playing FF. I can almost assure you you'll come out with way more scratch than even a FF player who usually wins. It's an investment that I also enjoy very much. I come out ahead every year in fantasy - I don't win every league each year but on the whole I win money every year for as long as I can remember. Sure, I could probably make more with a side job, but ff is way more fun. It's like investing in stocks - a lot of work and research is involved but it's fun work that I can do while drinking beer and laying on my couch. No job could replicate that. AND theres a satisfaction of being the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 I must take this way too seriously then. When money is on the line, it is no longer a game, it is an investment. Henry Muto doesn't have chit on Btastic!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Fan Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 Henry Muto doesn't have chit on Btastic!! ZZZIIIIING! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackass Posted November 5, 2009 Author Share Posted November 5, 2009 Are you implying that thee is no skill involved in analyzing players in the preseason, considering factors such as changes in situation, past performance, injury history and everything else that goes into that, applying that study to draft the best possible team taking into consideration the players you have already taken, the players remaining, the chances of said players making it to your next pick, etc. while factoring in bye weeks and risk/reward of players etc., then taking the team that you drafted and analyzing weekly situations, trends, current performance, etc. to make the decision of which of said drafted players to place into your starting lineup each week? And this is not even taking into account the study of available players to evaluate against your current roster to determine waiver moves to strengthen your team, etc. If you truly believe there is no skill involved in this game, then you would be willing to make every pick by drafting players by pulling names out of a hat and making every starting decision by pulling names out of a hat and you would have to think that this would give you just as likely a chance at success as the owner who does his research and applies it to his league. No. That's not at all what i was getting at. I must've done a poor job explaining my point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 When you draft a team you're picking players based on how they do over the course of the season. So the fact that your team has monster weeks and is 'streaky and inconsistent' is completely, 100% random. That's what total points tries to mitigate - Some of the luck and randomness of the scheduling. I'm not advocating that it's a great system b/c i haven't played in it, but there is definitely less luck involved. To me, i'd rather be rewarded for skill because i find it more satisfying to win a league where skill is rewarded. I do understand that for some people, they enjoy having as much luck as possible because maybe they don't want to spend a ton of time on fantasy football or whatever the reason, and i have no problem if you want to take that approach. I disagree that there is "less luck" in a TP scoring system. Injuries and benchings occur in any format. Those things have much more to do with the luck factor. When I draft a team, I draft to win in whatever format the league uses. TP mitigates squat. In a H2H league, a Wes Welker is very consistant on a weekly basis. A Lee Evans (in previous years) might put up big points in bunches and disappear for a month. If you were an NFL GM, which player do you want? The guy that helps you win every week, or an inconsistant WR that disappears for weeks at a time? Like it or not, accept it or not, FF is all about pretending to be an NFL GM/Coach. H2H play, divisions and getting consistant players on your roster is what that is all about. You draft a starting QB and a backup. You don't draft a Garrard to be your starter. A lesson JAX has not yet gotten a handle on. In FF, you get a solid consistant QB, not another streaky player. Then you go off the deep end. You imply that people who prefer H2H do so because they don't put any time into the hobby? They prefer a more luck based system because they suck at drafting or roster management? Sorry, but that is just a flat out ridiculously stupid conclussion. Your belief that H2H play does not reward skill is absolutely preposterous. Draft a good roster, with players who consistantly perform is what the NFL tries to do. That is what FF is all about too. Now, if you want to play in a league that does all it can to lack any similarity to the NFL at all, total points is fine. I have no problem with that. I just would not participate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 I play FF so I can hang out here with all of you winners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 I play FF so I can hang out here with all of you winners. Royals, Chiefs... yeah, you gotta get your fill of winners somehow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Royals, Chiefs... yeah, you gotta get your fill of winners somehow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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