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How often does a perfect season happen?


Team Tsunami
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I'm 8-1 in one league right now: bye week got me . I did play in one league where a guy went undefeated, won the playoffs, and either made minimal WW moves or didn't make any. The commish commented on this when he posted congratulations. This guy needless to say had an awesome draft!

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If you're 9-0 now, I'm going to guess that your all play record would have some losses. Let's guess that your all-play W/L is .700 ...

 

So, if you have a 30% chance of losing any of your next four games, then your chance of losing at least one game from here on out is:

 

X = 1 - [(1-30%)^4] = 76% chance

 

...or, you have a 24% chance of going undefeated...assuming that (i) your all play record is .700 and (ii) each of your next three opponents' all-play records are exactly .500 both currently and at the time you play them.

 

If your all-play record is better/worse ... and/or your future opponents all-play records are either better or worse than this, it will impact the probability that you go undefeated.

 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Your mathematical model does nothing but predict what would happen if all teams scored as they have in the past. With all of the changing variables at work, teams will certainly perform differently (vastly so in any given week) than they have in the past.

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This goes back to the "Luck Thread". You will if your luck holds out.

 

I posted there that in three years I went 47-1, losing only the Championship game in the middle year.

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I've been playing FF for 25 years, give or take... and I never saw a team run the table. I think it is a curse going into the playoffs undefeated, not just in FF but in the NFL as well. The odds are stacked against the perfect season.

 

I think you're right, what really hurts in FFB playoffs is NFL teams saving players for their playoffs. Indy has a tendency to do this. If they remain undefeated it would be a hard call. If they lose one game I would bet that they would bench all of their good players during FFB playoffs.

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