"The Huddle" really blew it on this pick LT as so-called tier-1 RB

[rai]

I thought, what the heck give the Huddle paid service a try (for a pre-season redraft), see how it is. Seems like they were way too high on LT.

 

In a PPR league they list him as RB #3 overall and so I figure giving the premium we place on RBs he would be a very good pick-6.

 

I passed on DeAngelo, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Gore (etc..) you get the picture any on a number of players that should have got first round grades.

 

I understand why Rice was not as high as he could have been, but come on why the early season love for LT? He doesn't have it and I should have picked an up-side player than him.

 

In fact, I had another paid subscription that had LT down in the 20-s and Ray Rice way higher but I went with the 'experts' at the Huddle.. needless to say, I have LT on my team who is just good enough that I can't drop him but just bad enough that I should never play him.

 

He is 40th of all RBs (total) behind the likes of Fred Jackson, Hightower, Mendenhall, Tashard Choiuce (come on man) Maroney (etc..) less than a point ahead of Kevan Faulk for gods sake.

 

He does a little better on per-game average 33rd amoung all RBs but behind Lesean Mecoy (etc.)

 

Over-all LT is 159th in total points (for example as a Flex options) Devon Bess, Avery and Kelly Washington (he's a FA for gods sake!) have more points.

 

There are a dozen Free agents in my league (WR or RB) who have more points than him... Jonnie Knox, Creighton, Coles, Meachem, Bess, Gage etc..

 

The only reason he's not a FA in most leagues is because of his past performance. The still give it to him a couple times to get stuffed at the GL and then they pass it in to score.

Edited November 10, 2009 by rai

[Robash]

so your gut said LT's a bust but you went with someone else's opinion...sucks to be you imo. Ray Rice is doing me just swell in my local

[rai]

OK I just looked he did good in one game an has 3TDs on the season, but come on with the chargers passing game he should be doing a bet better than 33rd RB average points.

[Gonkis]

We need a separate forum for topics like this, it mucks up the water.

[dirtdickens]

It is just a tool, the choice is still yours. I dont always agree with what the guys think, but for the most part they are better than the other services I have seen.

 

Other than McFadden, LT, Jennings and VJax I dont think they missed on many of the big name guys. Almost every service had those players listed in the same range.

 

I think the projections have been rough this year, but it has been a crazy year. Knowing that the info they provide is a pretty educated guess, I take it as that-a guess. I still make my own decisions.

[whomper]

LT has been an awful fantasy back this year but in fairness as far as comparing his stats he did miss

2 games. You would at least have to add 62 yards and no TDs to his totals if he didnt.

Edited November 10, 2009 by whomper

[Ed Hoyle]

That's okay. I drank the Kool-Aid too.

 

As for Ray Rice, we had one guy trade him for Heath Miller on Draft Night. He's kicking himself in the A$$ as much as I am for trading MJD and Cotchery for Addai and LT. Damn.

 

But, LT is an afterthought in their passing game. I also think Turner isn't using him as much. I Turner's defense, LT has lost a step.

[rai]

I think "the Huddle" went out on a limb, no other services had LT ranked that high. And so of course he's sitting there at #6.

 

He should have been ranked 12-ish (high) or 15th (realistic) but when he's ranked #3 that is going out on a limb for a 30 year old RB and those guys don't produce.

[Mixmasterjeff]

I drafted him #6 overall and immediately regretted it. I was lucky enough to unload him and Sproles for P Thomas a few weeks ago before he really went in the tank.

 

Trade:

LT, Sproles, Sims-Walker, & Bowe

for

P Thomas & Bolden

 

Both are going to help we win my 3rd championship in 6 years...

[lkirc]

I think "the Huddle" went out on a limb, no other services had LT ranked that high. And so of course he's sitting there at #6.

 

He should have been ranked 12-ish (high) or 15th (realistic) but when he's ranked #3 that is going out on a limb for a 30 year old RB and those guys don't produce.

 

I took him at 11 and it screwed up my whole draft, but when I want to blame someone, I just look in the mirror. Perhaps you should do the same?

[chinatown dragons]

I I passed on DeAngelo, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Gore (etc..) you get the picture any on a number of players that should have got first round grades.

 

I

 

gotta seriously question you passing on Chris Johnson, DeAngelo and Gore for LT?????

 

did you happen to see what Chris Johnson and DeAngelo did last year????

[Whiskey Pimp]

I'm not sure the point of this post. Are you upset that he was ranked that high by the guys on the huddle or that you picked him instead of someone else?

[isleseeya]

I'm not sure the point of this post. Are you upset that he was ranked that high by the guys on the huddle or that you picked him instead of someone else?

 

sounds like both

 

but in life the view in the rear window always looks clearer than the view through the windshield

Edited November 10, 2009 by isleseeya

[jordanzs]

Not to plug another company's cheatsheets (I pay for both Fantasy Index & The Huddle), but our draft was on August 31st, so here's the August 27th RB rankings from Fantasy Index that I used for my draft:

 

1 CAR 4 Williams C 15 101 .85 15.2

2 MIN 9 Peterson 14 110 .83 16.0

3 ATL 4 Turner 15 95 .85 14.6

4 JAC 7 Jones-Drew 14 108 .80 15.6

5 CHI 5 Forte 15 100 .73 14.3

6 STL 9 S.Jackson 14 112 .73 15.6

7 HOU10 Slaton 14 97 .67 13.7

8 SF 6 Gore 14 98 .64 13.6

9 PHI 4 Westbrook 13 99 .79 14.7

10 NYG10 Jacobs C 14 91 .80 13.9

11 SD 5 Tomlinson C 14 93 .70 13.5

12 TEN 7 C.Johnson C 15 94 .47 12.3

13 DAL 6 Barber C 14 88 .76 13.3

14 GB 5 Grant 14 88 .66 12.8

15 CIN 8 Benson 15 87 .58 12.2

16 WAS 8 Portis 14 88 .58 12.3

17 BAL 7 Rice C 14 88 .50 11.8

18 DET 7 K.Smith 15 79 .51 11.0

19 OAK 9 McFadden C 15 81 .48 10.8

20 PIT 8 Parker C 14 82 .50 11.2

21 KC 8 L.Johnson 15 79 .47 10.7

22 IND 6 Addai C 14 72 .57 10.6

23 MIA 6 Brown C 15 71 .52 10.1

24 DEN 7 Moreno 14 76 .50 10.6

25 NO 5 Thomas C 16 60 .50 9.0

26 ARI 4 Hightower C 16 60 .49 9.0

27 BUF 9 Lynch 12 87 .54 11.9

28 SEA 7 J.Jones C 16 63 .43 8.9

29 NO 5 Bush C 13 74 .54 10.7

30 NYG10 Bradshaw C 2 94 .60 13.0

 

These rankings guided me to:

 

Take SJax in round 2 ahead of Gore (good choice)

 

Take Grant in round 4 (good value pick)

 

Take Ray Rice in round 7 (great choice!! Yahoo default rankings had him ranked in the 30's)

 

Take Benson in round 11 (great choice!! Yahoo also had him ranked in the 30's).

 

Tomlinson & Westbrook were ranked lower here than most other places, so that meant that LT & Westy flew off the draft board before I would've considered them.

 

Of course on the flip side, look how low they were (at the time) on Chris Johnson. I could've taken him at #10, but I went with the cheatsheets & took Moss instead. And I'm definitely not complaining!

Edited November 10, 2009 by jordanzs

[cre8tiff]

It is just a tool, the choice is still yours. I dont always agree with what the guys think, but for the most part they are better than the other services I have seen.

 

Other than McFadden, LT, Jennings and VJax I dont think they missed on many of the big name guys. Almost every service had those players listed in the same range.

 

I think the projections have been rough this year, but it has been a crazy year. Knowing that the info they provide is a pretty educated guess, I take it as that-a guess. I still make my own decisions.

 

The tool in this thread ain't the Huddle.

[kpholmes]

This is why I don't play re-drafts anymore.

[BigMikeinNY]

I am STILL waiting for a weekly write-up on the main page titled "Tonight's POWERBALL numbers before they happen"

Edited November 10, 2009 by BigMikeinNY

[keggerz]

I think "the Huddle" went out on a limb, no other services had LT ranked that high. And so of course he's sitting there at #6.

 

He should have been ranked 12-ish (high) or 15th (realistic) but when he's ranked #3 that is going out on a limb for a 30 year old RB and those guys don't produce.

Quick google search

 

3rd

4th

5th

5th

[myhousekey]

On the bright side those 91 rushing attempts and 9 receptions should have him fresh for the 2nd half.

[wolfer]

ya the other sites didnt have LT at #3.

 

They had Matt Forte there.

 

Everyone blames the huddle for LT and Vjax, noone thanks them for ranking Forte 8th. Or Ocho in the top ten. and so on and so forth.

 

How's everyone doing with Matt Forte? Winning your league?

[nuke'em ttg]

i came up with a LT for Bob Sanders trade all on my own

[Rovers]

By and large, LT was over ranked by most sites. R Rice and T Jones were very under ranked. Kudos to the sites that had Benson on the radar, I surely did not. Rice was a stretch because he had never been a "stud" before. Same for Benson. Jones was just silly the way he was under ranked. Jones was different, coming off a career year, with a rookie QB and a new HC that wanted to run the ball. Why everyone thought he would fall of a cliff is a real head scratcher. LT was clearly in decline. Use rankings for info, but make your own rankings.

 

Some RB's I never bought into for this year:

S Jackson

Forte

L white

R Bush

any Denver RB

any NE RB

 

My misses:

Slaton

Ward

Jacobs

K Smith

 

You use rankings for info, not for creating rankings. Make your own rankings. You drafted LT, that's on you. The signs of his decline were evident.

[chester]

They're PREDICTIONS. Sometimes wrong, more often right here. More often then me, anyway. Trust yourself next time!

[DMD]

I always enjoy sniping the picks that go badly.

 

First off comparing players right now at midseason has problems and also preseason rankings do not predict injuries which happened.

 

Here is the Huddle PPR picks against the average draft for RBs

 

HUD vs ADP

2 - 2 Maurice Jones-Drew

21 - 27 Ray Rice

6 - 8 Chris Johnson

1 - 1 Adrian Peterson

9 - 6 DeAngelo Williams

4 - 4 Michael Turner

22 - 21 Joseph Addai

12 - 10 Steve Slaton

27 - 33 Cedric Benson

49 - 39 Tim Hightower

7 - 7 Steven Jackson

32 - 23 Thomas Jones

43 - 50+ Ricky Williams

8 - 9 Frank Gore

15 - 15 Ronnie Brown

5 - 3 Matt Forte

14 - 16 Ryan Grant

16 - 17 Kevin Smith

18 - 18 Pierre Thomas

28 - 36 Julius Jones

44 - 42 Rashard Mendenhall

54 - 41 Ahmad Bradshaw

29 - 19 Reggie Bush

13 - 12 Brandon Jacobs

55+ - 35 Darren Sproles

36 - 43 Fred Jackson

39 - 31 Jonathan Stewart

11 - 13 Marion Barber

55+ - 50+ Carnell Williams

37 - 40 LeSean McCoy

24 - 25 Knowshon Moreno

46 - 45 Willis McGahee

42 - 50+ Correll Buckhalter

10 - 14 Clinton Portis

17 - 11 Brian Westbrook

3 - 5 LaDainian Tomlinson

31 - 24 Larry Johnson

 

 

The LT pick that some have pointed at since he was hurt in the first game. He has been injured and underperformed now that he is back to health. One of the other people mentioned VJax as a miss that I readily admit and these two players are related in that LT is not used as a receiver almost at all. VJax has gone from being a longball player living and dying by catching the long pass to being used everywhere. I cannot tell you how rare it is for him to do what he has done (or rather how Rivers has used him now).

 

As I referred to in the write up of LT, he was by all accounts healthy entering the season and Turner had every intention of using him for 320 carries. Recall too that everyone was all over Sproles as the split carry guy that I did not buy into and that never happened. He got some stats when LT was injured but not much since. My biggest surprise is the lack of receptions by LT. He has also faced defenses of @PIT, DEN and @NYG. He is a disappointment but to not consider his injury in week one or the slate of games he has played since returning gives a false picture.

 

I have no problem with what I projected this summer and the SD situation is what I mostly got wrong because of LT's injury, the emergence of VJax underneath and so on.

 

The season is only half over and things will change. I have no problem with what the projections and the explanations I gave for every ranking this summer. I would love to get them perfectly right and spend all my time trying, but I can only give what research and analysis suggests as most likely and that is before injuries and other unforseen dynamics come into play. Plus I explain my rationale on everything.

[rai]

ya the other sites didnt have LT at #3.

 

They had Matt Forte there.

 

Everyone blames the huddle for LT and Vjax, noone thanks them for ranking Forte 8th. Or Ocho in the top ten. and so on and so forth.

 

How's everyone doing with Matt Forte? Winning your league?

Forte still has 2x more points than LT he has 5 more points per game than LT.

 

5 points is a lot of course he was gone by 6 but still he's more solid than LT this year.