***Official Week 10 NFL Wagering Thread***

[kroyrunner89]

Week 10 Lines:

Bears +3.5 @ 49ers 43

Jaguars +7 @ Jets 40

Broncos -3.5 @ Redskins 37

Bengals +7 @ Steelers 41.5

Bills +6.5 @ Titans 41

Lions +16.5 @ Vikings 47

Saints -13.5 @ Rams 50

Falcons -1 @ Panthers 43.5

Bucs +10 @ Dolphins 43

Chiefs +1 @ Raiders 36.5

Seahawks +9 @ Cardinals 47

Eagles +1 @ Chargers 47

Cowboys -3 @ Packers 47.5

Patriots +3 @ Colts 50

Ravens -10.5 @ Browns 40

 

Good luck everyone!

[Do Work Son]

Player Props.

 

Vernon Davis will score a TD. -110

[keggerz]

Been to busy with my weekly article to post in these threads this year but at the half way point I am very happy with my

record of 90-39 straight up and 72-57 against the spread...cant say if my % would be better or worse if I picked fewer games...hopefully next year I will be able to post some plays on over/unders with a system I am working on someone with.

Edited November 13, 2009 by keggerz

[notamomo]

...hopefully next year I will be able to post some plays on over/unders with a system I am working on someone with.

 

Why wait til next year? Let's beta test this system on the forum.

 

I ike NE getting points this week. I think they'll win outright. Still looking at others.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

The only one I'm on this week is Broncos -3.5

[nimal]

Jets -6.5

Saints -13.5

Dallas -3

Bengals +7

[CowboysDiehard]

I'm already in on the Dolphins -10. They're going to clown-stomp the Bucs.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Been to busy with my weekly article to post in these threads this year but at the half way point I am very happy with my

record of 90-39 straight up and 72-57 against the spread...cant say if my % would be better or worse if I picked fewer games...hopefully next year I will be able to post some plays on over/unders with a system I am working on someone with.

 

 

Years ago when I first started wagering on NFL games I tried to come up with all kinds of systems. One that worked very well for me was on the over/unders. It was the most simplest system in the world but as long as I was patient and didn't try to force a wager it was extremely accurate. I'm not going to say I remember the exact percentages but they were somewhere in the neighborhood of 85 to 90% So you are going to ask me if it was that good why not keep using it or how come I'm not a millionaire. Simple, I was a gambler with bad money management skills and not enough patients to limit my plays to 2 or 3 games a month. But I will share the system with you guys here and if nothing else it is a nice tool to use along with any other system you are already using. I will give you guys a couple of examples from this weeks games and then you guys can do the work for the rest of them and see if any of this weeks games rate as a system play. Fist off in order to be a system play the difference between the total the system comes up with and the total being offered to wager on needs to be greater than 3-1/2 pts. Also I always ignored injuries but weather needs to be paid attention to.

 

Jets points scored 177 scored against 134

Jags " " 157 " " 198

 

By adding all 4 then dividing by the games played ( 8ea. x 2) 16 games = 41.625 the over/under this week is 40-1/2 so no play.

 

Minn 244 174

Lions 133 237

 

Total 788 / 16 games = 49.25 the over/under this week is 47 so no play

 

Vegas must use something similar because it's rare to find their total off by more than 3-1/2 points from my simple formula but there is always a 2 or 3 games a month.

[notamomo]

DrunkSystem Plays

 

If I understand the system correctly, there are a few plays this week.

 

Bucs @ Dolphins O/U is 43. D/S (DrunkSystem) says 47.6 diff of 4.6

Seahawks @ Cardinals O/U is 47. D/S says 43.5 diff of 3.5

 

This one is hugh....

Patriots @ Colts O/U is 50. D/S says 41.5 diff of 8.5.

 

Ok, Drunk, let's talk about your system. Correct me if I'm wrong: This week's plays are:

 

Bucs/Phins- play the over

Seahawks/Cards- play the under (marginal play)

Pats/Colts- GO ALL IN ON THE UNDER?!!

 

Thoughts?

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

DrunkSystem Plays

 

If I understand the system correctly, there are a few plays this week.

 

Bucs @ Dolphins O/U is 43. D/S (DrunkSystem) says 47.6 diff of 4.6

Seahawks @ Cardinals O/U is 47. D/S says 43.5 diff of 3.5

 

This one is hugh....

Patriots @ Colts O/U is 50. D/S says 41.5 diff of 8.5.

 

Ok, Drunk, let's talk about your system. Correct me if I'm wrong: This week's plays are:

 

Bucs/Phins- play the over This would be a play (remember to check weather)

Seahawks/Cards- play the under (marginal play) 3.5 is not a play but if you were already leaning in that direction this system helps double check yourself

Pats/Colts- GO ALL IN ON THE UNDER?!! This would be a play and I have only seen greater than a 8pt difference once or twice.

 

Thoughts?

 

Now about you comment of going all in ,,,,, use this system to confirm your own thoughts. Not to make a decisions for you.

FYI - like I said in my origional post ,, this was something I used when i first started wagering on the NFL

that was 30 years ago when all we had was a news paper to tell us how other teams outside of our area were doing.

It worked back then but I haven't used it in a long time and just thought I would throw it out there when i read keggerz post about introducing a system he has been working on.

[notamomo]

Good stuff, Drunk. I'm not going all in, by the way, but thanks for the warning. I just thought that difference was major. I've used a similar system for NCAAB with Sagarin ratings, but there have been fewer plays each year for the past 3 tourneys. Thanks for the info here. It's worth watching, at the very least.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Good stuff, Drunk. I'm not going all in, by the way, but thanks for the warning. I just thought that difference was major. I've used a similar system for NCAAB with Sagarin ratings, but there have been fewer plays each year for the past 3 tourneys. Thanks for the info here. It's worth watching, at the very least.

 

 

Just the fact that there is two plays the 1st week tells me that maybe the point differential I use to use may need to be modified.

Like you say ,,, something to watch and maybe moving from 3.5 to 4 or 5 just to CYA might be the way to go.

It will be fun to see how many plays it shows next week.

[keggerz]

Why wait til next year? Let's beta test this system on the forum.

 

I ike NE getting points this week. I think they'll win outright. Still looking at others.

it isn't ready to be tested yet....have 25 years worth of data and taking step by step with another huddler(who is handling the programing end) to get tot he point that I can analyze the data it is going to give me....at this point I have no idea if the data is going to tell me what I expect it to but from all my previous research I do think it will match what I am expecting...also I will actually be able to do a reverse beta of sorts in that I will be able to apply the "system" to all the previous games from the past 25 years or so to see how it fares against those known results...the funny thing is that I do NOT bet on games ...most i do is play in pay FF leagues...outside of that no gambling for me....but when I was doing some research on a player and his dropoff in performance I saw a trend that made me go hmmm...have been working on this now for almost 3 years I think...but another huddler just started helping me with the programing and data manipulation earlier this year....I think there are like 12,000 rows and 122 columns of data in excel that we are using so the access data base is HUGH

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

I went back and spot checked a couple of weeks and by simply moving one point from 3.5 to 4.5 the system is still accurate.

It's amazing how simple of a system it is to turn out plays better than 80% of the time. This week that would still give us two plays but common sense would tell us that one of the plays NE / Colts should be a high scoring game. I was listening to our local sports radio yesterday and they have a handicapper from Betwin.com on every week who gives out a couple free picks each week. Yesterday he gave the over in the NE/Colts game as one of his better free picks he has given out. i'm going to play the under anyway along with the play in the TB/ Phins game.

[kroyrunner89]

With two winning weeks in a row, it seems that we're starting to get things rolling in the right direction again. We've managed to go 6-3 ATS over that time span, despite the fact that my system has had such a slow start (5-6 ATS). I'm scratching my head a bit over why it's started so badly, but I trust it'll turn itself around sooner or later. So far, system plays that I have not made official plays are 0-3 ATS. Unless some of these system plays that I'm not upgrading start winning, I see no reason to keep posting them up. What good does it good for me to show system plays that just turn out to be losers? I'll monitor it for a week or two more, but I may be making a change in the coming weeks. Without further ado, here are my plays for Week 10:

 

 

* Colts/Patriots UNDER 50

I emailed out this play earlier in the week because of how much it jumped off the page at me. The Colts and Patriots have had astounding defenses so far, with Indianapolis having the best scoring efficiency defense in the league, and New England's ranking third best. As I explained a bit last week, I still do not think that Tom Brady is fully back, as the Patriots' red zone struggles continue. I expect this to be yet another week where they have to settle for a lot of field goals. On the Colts' offense side of the ball, this is a one dimensional offense that cannot run the ball very effectively. Teams in the NFL are starting to figure this out, which could be part of the reason Manning only has one touchdown pass over his last two games. I expect this game to stay a bit lower scoring, not turning into the shootout that a lot of people are expecting.

 

 

* Green Bay Packers +3

* Cowboys/Packers OVER 47.5

This feels like a letdown game for the Cowboys in my opinion. They're coming off of a huge win on the road against a division rival, and now go on the road again to face a Packers team that I really don't think is as bad as it looks. Despite all of the sacks (with that yardage factored in), Green Bay is still the 8th best team in the league in yards per pass attempt, which I find remarkable. Their run defense is currently doing a great job as well, as they're ranked second in the league in yards per rush attempt allowed. I think they can limit this Cowboys' rushing attack, turning this into a battle through the air, something which would be very helpful to the over. In the end, I think we're going to see a bit of a stinker out of Romo as he has a couple costly turnovers, and the Packers should capitalize and win this game outright in a high scoring affair.

 

 

* Dolphins/Bucs OVER 43

Miami's passing offense has been awful as of late, but luckily for them they're going against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Miami's wildcat offense should see plenty of success against the third worst rushing defense in the NFL, and the passing game should wake up a bit as well. Considering that the Dolphins are the fourth best team in the league at scoring efficiency, I expect them to put up a good number of points. I don't think we'll need more than 14 points out of the Bucs to push this total over, and they should be capable of providing us with that.

 

 

* Eagles/Chargers OVER 47

As seen in last week's Giants game, all the Chargers are capable of doing is throwing the ball. They had some costly drops to kill some drives, but I don't think that will be an issue this week. The Eagles may have one of the better defenses in the NFL, but I think they'll struggle a bit against the passing attack of the Chargers. The Eagles also have one of the more explosive offenses in the NFL, but the Chargers' defense isn't nearly as good as the Eagles'. Both teams will be able to put up their fair share of points, this feels like a 24-27 type of game, possibly higher.

 

ATS System Plays (3-4):

 

 

* Packers +3

* Chiefs +1

* Seahawks +9

* Saints -13.5

 

Totals System Plays (2-2):

 

 

* Packers/Cowboys OVER 47.5

* Colts/Patriots UNDER 50

* Chiefs/Raiders UNDER 36.5

* Dolphins/Bucs OVER 43

* Eagles/Chargers OVER 47

 

As always, good luck to everyone this week!

[Gopher]

DAL/GB Over 48

 

PHI/SD Over 47

 

KC/OAK Under 36.5

 

TB/MIA Over 43.5

 

6 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

Panthers(Carolina) +7.5

ATL/CAR Over 37.5

 

6 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

Titans(Tennessee) -1.5

BUF/TEN Under 47

 

6 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

Steelers(Pittsburgh) -0.5

CIN/PIT Over 35.5

 

6 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

Jets(NewYork) -0.5

JAC/NYJ Over 35

 

6 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

Packers(GreenBay) +9

DAL/GB Over 42

[Gopher]

A couple of late/evening game additions:

 

Chargers(SanDiego) PICK'EM

 

6 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

Patriots(NewEngland) +7.5

Cardinals(Arizona) -2.5