Arrogance in Coaching

[detlef]

 

He wasn't giving them anything...Faulk catches the ball cleanly, game over.

 

Some facts: on 4th and 2 in Brady's career, the Pats are 76% efficient. On a short field (30 ayrds or less), Manning fails to get a TD 13% of the time.

 

Coupled, that meant there was an 89% chance the Pats win the game.

 

Had they punted, and say Indy got the ball at their own 30 with over twom minutes left, waht do you think Manning's chanced were? 40%? 50%?

 

Clearly, it wasn't the bonehead move many are making it out to be. And it certainly had nothing to do with arrogance.

 

 

Nope. Bad math there.

While the math may not be exactly right (I don't have time to do the appropriate equation) but the understanding is correct and I agree that the numbers support the decision to go for it. Assuming, of course, that swammi's base percentages are, in fact accurate (something else I don't have time to confirm).

 

The only question you need to ask is how much less likely is Manning to drive the Colts 70 yds than 30 yds. That and how likely you are to pick up the 1st. As has been mentioned, if you get the first, then it doesn't matter what Manning can do on a long vs a short field, because he never sees the ball again anyway.

 

Actually, I did the math. Assuming that swammi's 76% and 13% numbers are correct, then NE had a 79% chance of winning by doing what they did. That is, 76% of sealing it with the conversion plus 3% (the 24% chance of them failing x the 13% of managing to hold the Colts anyway).

 

So, unless Manning's chances of getting the TD with 2 minutes to go from his own 30 were less than 21%, then the numbers hold.

 

Well, that and the fact that NE couldn't stop Indy in the 4th anyway, which just makes going for it even a better idea.

Edited November 16, 2009 by detlef

[WaterMan]

 

i bet the reactions would be different in Faulk caught that ball 2 feet further up the field.

[i_am_the_swammi]

Actually, I did the math. Assuming that swammi's 76% and 13% numbers are correct, then NE had a 79% chance of winning by doing what they did. That is, 76% of sealing it with the conversion plus 3% (the 24% chance of them failing x the 13% of managing to hold the Colts anyway).

 

So, unless Manning's chances of getting the TD with 2 minutes to go from his own 30 were less than 21%, then the numbers hold.

 

Well, that and the fact that NE couldn't stop Indy in the 4th anyway, which just makes going for it even a better idea.

 

Yep, your math is correct.

 

And yes, at hat point in the game, with NE playing tired, backup defenders all over the field, I am sure Belichek felt that the only way to possibly win the game was to keep the ball out of Manning's hands.

[tonorator]

i thought it was a good call. if i'm a colts fan, i want them to punt me the ball, i don't want them to go for it. I don't want them to give the ball to tom brady to get 2 yards and close down my chances. i thought it was a bold call and a confident call, not arrogant. you take that chance to win the game vs. the chance of manning doing what he just did, take the team down the field in under 2 minutes without using any time-outs.

[WaterMan]

i thought it was a good call. if i'm a colts fan, i want them to punt me the ball, i don't want them to go for it. I don't want them to give the ball to tom brady to get 2 yards and close down my chances. i thought it was a bold call and a confident call, not arrogant. you take that chance to win the game vs. the chance of manning doing what he just did, take the team down the field in under 2 minutes without using any time-outs.

 

I agree. He had Tom Brady after all. Not some scrub at QB.

[nhoops]

I actually think it was the opposite. He knew his defense was tired and most likely wasn't going to be able to stop Manning anyway.

 

That being said I would have felt a whole lot better about the loss if Manning had drove 70 yds instead of 29 for the score.

 

He's been right on a bunch of 4th down gambles this year; but against the Colts, the time of the game, the TO situation, field position, and how momentum was going I just don't see how you make that call.

 

Great game, hopefully if we meet again in the playoffs we'll have a chance for redemption.

 

Congrats to the Colts Fans!

 

[WaterMan]

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=pfw-...w&type=lgns

[SpinalTapp]

Am I missing something or is the real sin committed by BB not his decision to go for the 4th and 2, but rather his absolute mismanagement of the game after they failed to get the first down? How do you not even try to extend the game by using your two time outs? You dont trust your defense to stop Manning with two minutes left from 80 yards away...but from 28 yards away you dont use your timeouts because you think your defense and the clock will stop Manning ??? Two minutes for Manning from inside the 30 yard line is like 10 minutes. Calling time outs is not helping him....it's helping you. Manning was literally buring clock off....and BB was just watching the seconds go by.

 

Speculation time - I think he was so in shock that his team actually failed and so pissed off after the officials did not give him a "booth review" on a play he believed was clearly controversial that he was mentally checked out at that point - he looked dazed. I think the play should have been reviewed as it was THE pivotal play of the game - but karma is a bitch aint it? BB lost his shizzle, his cool, his control, and ultimately, the game for his mismanagement of the action after his team failed on 4th and two...not because of the decision.

[tonorator]

Am I missing something or is the real sin committed by BB not his decision to go for the 4th and 2, but rather his absolute mismanagement of the game after they failed to get the first down? How do you not even try to extend the game by using your two time outs? You dont trust your defense to stop Manning with two minutes left from 80 yards away...but from 28 yards away you dont use your timeouts because you think your defense and the clock will stop Manning ??? Two minutes for Manning from inside the 30 yard line is like 10 minutes. Calling time outs is not helping him....it's helping you. Manning was literally buring clock off....and BB was just watching the seconds go by.

 

i thought he was out of timeouts (which was part of his mismanagement). with no timeouts, he was unable to challenge the spot.

[SpinalTapp]

i thought he was out of timeouts (which was part of his mismanagement). with no timeouts, he was unable to challenge the spot.

 

 

Nope. Clock was at 1:59 - so...he was unable to challenge as game was under two minutes. I am sure he was going nuts inside that the booth was screwing him over by not going to replay on a controversial call.

[Timmypg]

He was out of timeouts. Play started with over 2:00 so coaches must challenge.

 

The problem for me wasn't arrogance or stupidity it was the fact that in week 10 you admitted you don't trust your defense at all.

[Ursa Majoris]

Speculation time - I think he was so in shock that his team actually failed and so pissed off after the officials did not give him a "booth review" on a play he believed was clearly controversial that he was mentally checked out at that point - he looked dazed.

This is supported by seeing him completely remove his headset and wiring.

[isleseeya]

i am surprised to see alot of posts saying that they thought it was a good play and or a good call by Pats

 

in 30 years of watching football , i think it was one of the worst decisions ever made by a coach

 

Just think about the message it sends into Belichick's owen locker room ?? How else can any defensive playerfor the Pats view it as other than do Coach had no trust in us

 

Throw in the fact that if you dont make it you have not only given the Colts ridiculous field position , you just gave the colts team and crowd a huge lift

 

A punt would not have the same positive uplifting effect as stopping them cold on 4th down did for sure

 

I cant see any justification other than a punt given all the facts imho

Edited November 16, 2009 by isleseeya

[Big John]

Nope. Clock was at 1:59 - so...he was unable to challenge as game was under two minutes. I am sure he was going nuts inside that the booth was screwing him over by not going to replay on a controversial call.

Nope. He was out of timeouts, and the ref told the clock operator to reset to 2:00. Even if it was at 1:59, it would have been prior to the 2-minute warning and could challenge if he had any timeouts left, since if the 2:00 mark happens while a play was in action the rules say to run the clock until the end of the play, stop it at the end of the play and have the 2-minute warning there. And the play prior to the 2-minute warning (the pass being the case here) would be a coaches challenge.

[tonorator]

Nope. Clock was at 1:59 - so...he was unable to challenge as game was under two minutes. I am sure he was going nuts inside that the booth was screwing him over by not going to replay on a controversial call.

 

i'm glad you are not managing a team because you are completely wrong. the play happened before the 2 minute warning hit, which meant that bill could challenge, IF he had any timeouts, WHICH HE DIDN'T. should it have happened after the 2 minute warning, it would have definitely been reviewed by the officials.

[SpinalTapp]

Nope. He was out of timeouts, and the ref told the clock operator to reset to 2:00. Even if it was at 1:59, it would have been prior to the 2-minute warning and could challenge if he had any timeouts left, since if the 2:00 mark happens while a play was in action the rules say to run the clock until the end of the play, stop it at the end of the play and have the 2-minute warning there. And the play prior to the 2-minute warning (the pass being the case here) would be a coaches challenge.

 

 

my bad - here I am slamming BB and did not do my own homework properly (went off memory). He was out of TOs. Everyone please look into my neuralizer while I put on my black sunglasses - perhaps you will forget I ever posted this.

 

Sorry guys.....

[tonorator]

Just think about the message it sends into Belichick's owen locker room ?? How else can any defensive playerfor the Pats view it as other than do Coach had no trust in us

 

the message it sends is that he believed his offense could get 2 yards.

 

it's already been shared that the pats are over 75% on 4th and 2 historically. it's not like this was some 20% shot of winning a game or something. add to that the fact that they had racked up 450 yards against the colts and you could see why they were confident in their offense.

 

as far as the D, they should have already been questioning themselves because they let peyton go down the field for a TD in under 2 minutes on the previous drive. why would you put them right back in that scenario, with a timeout?

 

as stated, if you want to get mad at NE or BB, be mad because he didn't keep at least a timeout so he could challenge a play if necessary.

[detlef]

What seems to be getting lost by all those outraged by the logic in this move is how much easier it is to move the ball between the 30s than it is from the 30 in. So, essentially, you're conceding the easy yards on the drive for the chance to basically put the game away. I mean, look at how easily they moved from the 30 to the 1. They complete 3 out patterns from their own 30 and they're right back at the NE 30. anyway.

[isleseeya]

the message it sends is that he believed his offense could get 2 yards.

 

it's already been shared that the pats are over 75% on 4th and 2 historically. it's not like this was some 20% shot of winning a game or something. add to that the fact that they had racked up 450 yards against the colts and you could see why they were confident in their offense.

 

as far as the D, they should have already been questioning themselves because they let peyton go down the field for a TD in under 2 minutes on the previous drive. why would you put them right back in that scenario, with a timeout?

 

as stated, if you want to get mad at NE or BB, be mad because he didn't keep at least a timeout so he could challenge a play if necessary.

 

it was there OWN 28 yard line ... there is no need to believe in your offense in a situation like this ..no need to put them in that position

 

The trust has to be with your punter and defense ....

 

this decision to go for it on 4fh and 2 from your own 28 yard line is not benefitted by the amount of offense they gained through out the game ... all those yards cant be used in order to get the last 2 yards you need

 

You have to make the other team earn it ...thats what a punt would do imho

[Cowboyz1]

What seems to be getting lost by all those outraged by the logic in this move is how much easier it is to move the ball between the 30s than it is from the 30 in. So, essentially, you're conceding the easy yards on the drive for the chance to basically put the game away. I mean, look at how easily they moved from the 30 to the 1. They complete 3 out patterns from their own 30 and they're right back at the NE 30. anyway.

 

 

Look, to all of you justifing the call the bottom line is simple. The object of the game at that point is to make the other team have to make more plays even if it is one more period. The smart, no brainer call was to punt the ball and make Manning drive the field in under 2 minutes. He has thown 2 picks already and the ball was fluttering out of his hands a few times. You DON'T take a chance of giving him the ball at your own 28 with Huge momentum. He took all the stress away from Indy. If they punt the O line has to worry about protection, they have to worry about executing flawlessly for 70 to 80 yards and they don't have the excitement of just stopping the 4th down play. This game is about momentum and enery. BB gave both an infusion of enery, momentum while sucking it all out of his team and telling his D he has no confidence in them while putting them in a horrible spot. Stop 2 or 3 plays instead of 8 to 10.

 

That was the worst call in history of the game and will have ramification for the rest of the season.

[detlef]

Look, to all of you justifing the call the bottom line is simple. The object of the game at that point is to make the other team have to make more plays even if it is one more period. The smart, no brainer call was to punt the ball and make Manning drive the field in under 2 minutes. He has thown 2 picks already and the ball was fluttering out of his hands a few times. You DON'T take a chance of giving him the ball at your own 28 with Huge momentum. He took all the stress away from Indy. If they punt the O line has to worry about protection, they have to worry about executing flawlessly for 70 to 80 yards and they don't have the excitement of just stopping the 4th down play. This game is about momentum and enery. BB gave both an infusion of enery, momentum while sucking it all out of his team and telling his D he has no confidence in them while putting them in a horrible spot. Stop 2 or 3 plays instead of 8 to 10.

 

That was the worst call in history of the game and will have ramification for the rest of the season.

Well, regardless of whether you think it was a wise call or not, it was certainly not that. Your own Cowboys made a worse version when they did the same thing with the other team needing only a FG to win it. Essentially handing them the ball already in range and 10 yards away from a very easy FG. The difference between that and giving a team a 28 yd field to work with, in which they actually had to punch it in, not merely get close, is vast. And that's the deal. Since 2001, the Colts are the 2nd most efficient Red Zone team in the league. Yet they only manage to score a TD 59% of the time. So, even if the Pats fail to convert something that they've done 76% of the time for the last 8 years, it's not like they've completely handed the game to the Colts, they've handed them a slightly better than 50/50 chance of winning the game. Again, and that's only if they fail to convert. Oh, and those stats are based on inside the 20, not the 30.

 

You guys make it seem like it's a foregone conclusion that, every time a team is inside the 30, you might as well give 'em six.

 

As for momentum, did you see the Colts flying all over the field after they stopped the Pats on 3rd, assuming they were going to get the ball back? I'd say they were rather pumped already. And for those who say the D felt deflated after the coach showed so little respect. Screw 'em. Their pros and all you ever hear is how mentally tough the Pats are. Go earn your freaking check.

Edited November 16, 2009 by detlef

[pig devilz]

nothing to do with arrogance...that's just hatred of BB talking. be honest.

 

the call actually showed the utmost respect to Brady to make the play

and the utmost respect to Manning to not want to give him the ball

[keggerz]

people are using stats(and not just here) but those stats arent really telling the entire story.....so what if they are 70+% on 4th downs...how many of those were on 4th and 2 on the road...and even in a dome (louder)...what is the % that the Pats convert on 3rd and 2? Bet it is high but guess what they didnt convert on the previous 3rd and 2.....another stat that should be looked at...how many CONSECUTIVE times in a 4th quarter has ANY team (let alone a division leading team) given up 3 consecutive drives of 70+ yards for TDs in the 4th quarter...if i had the access to those numbers I would gladly run them but sadly I dont

[Tega]

Arrogance was part of that call and part of calling that last timeout. It was like he was saying, "We're not going to need that last timeout." It was an awful call. I said it out loud before they didn't even get the 1st down. Now, if Brady was going to try to draw the Colts defense off-sides then that would be fine. The timeout should have been saved to call "Time" if the playclock got down to 2 seconds and the Colts didn't jump.

 

At least if they had a timeout left, they could have called time after the Colts were stopped at the 2 yd line. It would have given them a little bit more time to get in field goal position once they received the kickoff.

 

just awful coaching.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

nothing to do with arrogance...that's just hatred of BB talking. be honest.

 

the call actually showed the utmost respect to Brady to make the play

and the utmost respect to Manning to not want to give him the ball

bull s hit. If Wade Phillips makes that call and they lose everyonr in the country's calling for his head today. You punt the ball in that situation. End of story.