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Gaming the waiver wire


Brentastic
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So, I'm gaming our waiver wire this week in my 'friend' league. Our ww is setup where once you make a pick, you drop to the bottom of the priority list - in other words, once the order is set for week 1, it never resets, the only way to get a top pick is to not make a ww move until eventually you are at the top. So, I am finally first in the order (haven't made a ww pick all year) and just in time to grab Forsett, thankfully, because I also have Julius Jones. But wait, since Forsett won't be my starter, I also want the GB defense - both players will undoubtedly get picked in tonight's waiver wire being a 14 team league.

 

So here's what I'm going to do so I can get both - I made a post on the league message board welcoming Justin Forsett to my team, essentially making it known that I will be using the 1st ww pick to get Forsett. Instead, I have selected GB with my 1st round ww pickup, meanwhile, everyone else will be using their 1st round pick on someone other than Forsett and I will then be able to obtain Forsett in the 2nd round of waivers!

 

That's how you do it, folks. Game theory at work.

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Pretty clever, but with 14 teams I'm sure someone will still put a claim in on him - just in case..

 

I know I would regardless of what another manager posted.. Just my 2 cents.. :wacko:

And if I may add - sometimes people don't read the posts.. I know I've missed a few in my league..

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So, I'm gaming our waiver wire this week in my 'friend' league. Our ww is setup where once you make a pick, you drop to the bottom of the priority list - in other words, once the order is set for week 1, it never resets, the only way to get a top pick is to not make a ww move until eventually you are at the top. So, I am finally first in the order (haven't made a ww pick all year) and just in time to grab Forsett, thankfully, because I also have Julius Jones. But wait, since Forsett won't be my starter, I also want the GB defense - both players will undoubtedly get picked in tonight's waiver wire being a 14 team league.

 

So here's what I'm going to do so I can get both - I made a post on the league message board welcoming Justin Forsett to my team, essentially making it known that I will be using the 1st ww pick to get Forsett. Instead, I have selected GB with my 1st round ww pickup, meanwhile, everyone else will be using their 1st round pick on someone other than Forsett and I will then be able to obtain Forsett in the 2nd round of waivers!

 

That's how you do it, folks. Game theory at work.

 

Is the gamble on losing Forsett worth the reward of the GB D? What would BB do? :wacko:

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You all bring up a valid concern and one that I have thought of. This league is pretty active on the message boards, we're all very close friends so a lot of trash talking goes on. However, there is a small chance that someone will still put in a move for him. There is a small part of me that wants to play it safe and select Forsett in the first, but the arrogant prick in me wants to pull the wool over their eyes. RB is my weakest part of my team, so the risk of losing Forsett is not worth the gain in GB, but Forsett is playing MIN this week and it's very possible that JJ is back in week 12. I guess I'm still on the fence on what to do. Thanks a lot huddle :wacko:

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Add Forsett with the first round claim and then worry about a defense as that's not as big of a concern. I really think someone else will scoop him up if you don't claim him as I know I'd have a claim in for him regardless of what you said. And besides, do you really want to wait all year for the #1 WW slot and select a defense?

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Here's my question: when you put your waivers in, do you put in a list of people you want or are you allowed only one pick and if that guy's gone, you don't get anyone? If it's the former, this is a bad idea. If it's the latter, this may work but is still a big risk.

 

Good luck.

It's on MFL, so you can select numerous players by round.

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+1

 

Dumb move if you don't look to grab Forsett with your first selection and then look for a defense after.

Well, it's either GB or Donnie Avery. Regardless, it's more about getting 2 for 1 than about getting a defense 1st. Obviously I wouldn't normally do it that way, but I think I have set the league up for this move. However, after hearing from you guys, I will probably play it safe because it only takes 1 owner to put Forsett in their que - not worth the risk. If I wasn't so weak at RB I'd take the risk but I think you guys have talked me out of it. Thanks a lot huddle :wacko:

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Well, it's either GB or Donnie Avery. Regardless, it's more about getting 2 for 1 than about getting a defense 1st. Obviously I wouldn't normally do it that way, but I think I have set the league up for this move. However, after hearing from you guys, I will probably play it safe because it only takes 1 owner to put Forsett in their que - not worth the risk. If I wasn't so weak at RB I'd take the risk but I think you guys have talked me out of it. Thanks a lot huddle :wacko:

 

Damn, I was really curious to see if your ploy was gonna work. Now we'll never know...

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Well, it's either GB or Donnie Avery. Regardless, it's more about getting 2 for 1 than about getting a defense 1st. Obviously I wouldn't normally do it that way, but I think I have set the league up for this move. However, after hearing from you guys, I will probably play it safe because it only takes 1 owner to put Forsett in their que - not worth the risk. If I wasn't so weak at RB I'd take the risk but I think you guys have talked me out of it. Thanks a lot huddle :wacko:

 

And there's the key factor in all this. If you were stacked at RB, it's worth taking a shot on but in your case play it safe and you'll still be fine with whatever defense you get. Maybe you'll be surprised and be able to get the GB defense in the end anyhow.

Edited by irish
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Damn, I was really curious to see if your ploy was gonna work. Now we'll never know...

Trust me, man, I so want to do this just to see if I can pull it off. It's almost worth the attempt but I don't think I can do it. The commish even made a comment about me ruining the uncertainty of the ww, it just feels like I will get burned if I try it. I dunno, I could try it and give you guys the link to my homepage so you can see if I get it. Every part of me wants to.

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I can only speak for myself, but I always put in a list of waiver claims beginning with the top guys that I want, even if I'm virtually certain not to get my top pick(s) because my waiver priority is too low. This is because every now and then you catch people sleeping, or someone is on vacation with limited computer access, forgets there's a Thursday night game, etc., and you end up with a pleasant surprise and a player that you thought you had no chance of landing. I suspect there's at least one guy like me in your league, and if it's a competitive league at all, I'd wager there's almost no chance Forsett goes unclaimed and falls to you in the second round of waivers. JMO, but there's no way I'd take that chance if I was weak at RB, just in order to land the Packer defense.

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