***Official Week 11 NFL Wagering Thread***

[Gopher]

Didn't see this started yet, so here we go....

 

Week 11 Lines:

 

MIA +3 @ CAR 42.5

CLE +3.5 @ DET 38

BUF +8.5 @ JAC 42.5

PIT -10 @ KC 40

IND -1 @ BAL 44

ATL +6.5 @ NYG 46

SF +6.5 @ GB 42.5

SEA +11 @ MIN 46

WAS +11 @ DAL 41.5

NO -11 @ TB 51

ARI -9 @ STL 46.5

NYJ +10.5 @ NE 45

CIN -9.5 @ OAK 36

PHI -3 @ CHI 45

TEN +4.5 @ HOU 48

[Gopher]

DET -3.5 Cleveland's offense is terrible. Their defense is actually slightly underrated, in my opinion, and has done a good job of keeping them in some games this year, but they still can't score any points on offense. Their best player, Joshua Cribbs, spent Monday night in the hospital due to a throat/neck injury. He may still play, but it won't be enough... The Lions have all of their offensive weapons back and healthy (Stafford, Smith, Johnson), and should win this game by a touchdown or more. Detroit 20 Cleveland 10

 

6-pt teaser: TEN +10.5 and TEN/HOU Over 42 I'm not sure who is going to win this game, but I'm fairly certain it will be high-scoring, and probably within a touchdown either way. The first time these two teams met (Week 2), they put up 65 points in a back-and-forth shootout. Tennessee is playing much better as of late, mainly due to the fact that their defense is more healthy than it was 1-2 months ago. I actually like them to win this game outright, with both teams once again scoring at least into the 20's. Tennessee 27 Houston 21

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Very quite around here lately - Maybe others like myself just aren't seeing much value in the lines the last couple of weeks ?

I'm on tonight's game - Miami plus the 3 ( May also take the money line + 160 )

[nimal]

Eagles - 3

Browns +3.5(detroit shouldnt be favorites against anyone, especially against someone who has a good defense and by more then a FG)

Colts - 1

Jags - 8.5 (my favorite pick of the week)

[myhousekey]

Tampa is prety bad but I have a hard time accepting the Saints as an 11 point favorite on the road when they've failed to cover double digit spreads the last 3 weeks (vs ATL, vs CAR, @ STL); especially with the injuries to the secondary and D-line right now. That combined with the fact that Tampa has been pretty good on special teams makes me want to stay away.

 

So far this season Tampa's special teams has:

- 2 blocked extra points

- 1 onside kickoff recovery

- 1 blocked field goal

- 2 kickoff returns for a TD

- 1 deflected punt

- 1 blocked punt returned for a TD

 

I'm not saying I don't think the Saints win. I'm just weary of that spread.

Edited November 19, 2009 by myhousekey

[kroyrunner89]

Thanks for getting this started. Here's what I like tonight:

 

* Miami Dolphins +3

 

The big thing scaring people away from the Dolphins in this game is the absence of RB Ronnie Brown. He's been a huge part of their wildcat offense, and without him there is concern that it will struggle to be as effective as before. However, Ricky Williams is a very suitable replacement to Brown, as he's been running great all season, averaging over 5 yards per carry. He should continue to find success, as the Panthers' run defense is one of the worst in the NFL, giving up 4.63 yards per rush attempt. Miami's running game shouldn't have much trouble getting going in this one, opening up the passing game for Henne.

 

Miami's run defense is also a strength of the team. They've limited opponents to 3.74 yards per carry, 6th best in the NFL. Considering that the main strength of the Panthers this year is running the ball, this is a very welcome sign. Although Miami's pass defense has been abysmal so far this season, the Panthers have had major struggles in their passing game, and if Delhomme is forced to air it out we may see a turnover or two.

 

Finally, I think Miami holds the special teams advantage in this contest. They're the 5th best team in the league at kickoff and punt returns, while Carolina is 8th worst. When it comes to defending these returns, Miami is right about average, while Carolina is the worst in the league. This leads me to believe that Miami will also win the battle of field position, which should go a long way in making sure they win this game. So, with all of these factors on our side and my system backing the Dolphins, I'll take Miami and hope that they get the job done.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Very quite around here lately - Maybe others like myself just aren't seeing much value in the lines the last couple of weeks ?

I'm on tonight's game - Miami plus the 3 ( May also take the money line + 160 )

 

 

nice start to week 11

 

was on Miami + 3 pretty heavy and had a decent amount on Miami money line

plus started Ricky Williams in a couple of my fantasy leagues so a very sweet start this week for me

[kroyrunner89]

Nice hit, I'm still working towards weekend plays here. Tough week in my opinion. A lot of the plays I liked early on are big public favorites, which always makes me nervous. I'm actually close to rolling with Oakland +9, I'm taking another day to think it over though to make sure I'm not insane.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

I hear you Kroy .. I don't see anything out there worth posting ,,, they all look like hit or miss to me

I can't believe I'm saying this but I think I'm just going to sit back and watch the games this weekend and parley my Thursday night winnings on next weeks games starting on Thanksgiving or maybe play a small ,, very small teaser just to have something going ? I'm not a teaser player so I will ask the Gopher what he thinks of a 5-team 7pt teaser i was looking at. it pays 3-1/2 to 1

 

Pittsburgh Steelers - 3

Indianapolis Colts + 5.5

Dallas Cowboys - 4

New England Patriots - 3.5

Philadelphia Eagles + 4

[Gopher]

I hear you Kroy .. I don't see anything out there worth posting ,,, they all look like hit or miss to me

I can't believe I'm saying this but I think I'm just going to sit back and watch the games this weekend and parley my Thursday night winnings on next weeks games starting on Thanksgiving or maybe play a small ,, very small teaser just to have something going ? I'm not a teaser player so I will ask the Gopher what he thinks of a 5-team 7pt teaser i was looking at. it pays 3-1/2 to 1

 

Pittsburgh Steelers - 3

Indianapolis Colts + 5.5

Dallas Cowboys - 4

New England Patriots - 3.5

Philadelphia Eagles + 4

Well, just because I play them a lot doesn't mean I'm an expert. Just like parlays, teasers are obviously more difficult to win as you add more components to them. In other words, I prefer 2- or 3-team teasers... they don't pay as much, but they're "safer" in that there are that many less games that could surprise you with their outcomes. Winning a 5-teamer is not as easy as it looks on paper, as the odds of one game out of the five going the exact opposite direction of what you think it would increases with each game that you add.

 

Depends on what kind of player you are, though... I know friends who bet 4-team parlays each and every week, and as long as they "hit" one every few weeks, they at least break even. I guess I'm more of the conservative type... rather than being content with "hitting" every once in a while, I try to break even or better, each and every week. In order to do that, playing a mix of straight wagers and teasers, you have to keep your teasers relatively simple, which is why I stick to mostly 2-team 6- or 6.5-point teasers. The other thing with teasers is that, if you only do two games, you most likely won't get the 7-point option... Most sites I have seen only offer 6 and 6.5 for two or more teams, and 7 points for 3+ teams.

 

As far as your five teams above, I look at it like this... Which of those games could you possibly see going the other way? I like PIT, DAL, and NE to all win by double-digits, and really don't think any of those teams are in danger of losing outright. If there is one of the three that you like less than the others, I would eliminate that team. Otherwise, stick with all three. The Colts game, despite Indy being favored by a point (or 1.5), is really a "pick'em" type of game. In that type of game, unless you have a strong feeling one way or the other, the outcome could very easily result in either team winning by a touchdown. In other words, I am leaning towards the Colts winning and covering the spread. But, am I leaning that way significantly enough that I would be surprised if Baltimore won by a touchdown? Probably not. Like I said, though, if you feel strongly that the Colts WILL win the game, then +5.5 is a pretty safe bet.

 

The Eagles, to me, are somewhat of a Jekyl and Hyde kind of team... Just when you think you've figured them out, they lay an egg (Oakland). They have also done the opposite as well... I seem to remember them coming out guns a blazin' last year on Turkey Day (evening, actually), right around the time that everyone was calling for McNabb's head on a platter. He followed up what was probably his worst performance of 2008 (Baltimore), a game in which he was benched, with what was his best game of the year (Arizona). So, I look at the Philly-Chicago game as a tough one to call... Who knows how Chicago (and Cutler) will react to their ugly loss to the Niners. With 10 days off, though, I'm not too sure they won't bounce back with a win at home, against an Eagles team that, like I said, is tough to predict.

 

So, if it was me, I would probably stay away from 4 or 5 team teasers, and either whittle it down to 2 or 3, or split them up into two different plays. This is just my personal preference, but I sometimes try to accomplish this by just grouping my bets by time slot, so that I don't have partially completed teasers pending all weekend. In other words, if I can find 2 or 3 games that I like from the early games, I will pair those up for an early teaser, and then do the same with the late/evening games, rather than putting everything together for a less-likely win. Occasionally, I will go against this "rule" and group games from different time slots together... typically, if I feel there is a lot of value in getting that extra point (7-pt teaser instead of 6 or 6.5) in multiple games. Of course, like I said, all of this is just my personal preference... no hard data here for you to go by. I remember reading some of Dre's information last year, on the probabilities of various teaser combinations, and basically being blown away with all of the information available. So, I try to pair up some of those trends/probabilities with my personal experience (and general gut feeling), when deciding on what teasers to play. Hope that helps.

[Gopher]

I will add that I have been TERRIBLE this year at posting in these threads early enough in the weekend for anybody to really get anything out of them. Posting a few minutes before kickoff doesn't really do anybody much of any good, and I know that... So, I apologize for my general procrastination. Actually, given some of my results, maybe that's a good thing.

 

Anyway, going forward, I'm going to try to post my plays and general thoughts on Sunday's games by Saturday night... I agree that these threads have turned into a ghost town as of late. Personally, I have had a lot of things going on, outside of the football world, and haven't been able to spend as much time posting here. But, I did truly enjoy reading others' thoughts, and sharing information, last year. Hopefully, we can continue this going forward, and avoid letting this thread die out completely.

[fatstevie]

Does anyone like Pitt against the awful Chiefs. I hate to lay 10 but I can't see this being close.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

Does anyone like Pitt against the awful Chiefs. I hate to lay 10 but I can't see this being close.

:raiseshand: Pitt's gotta be fired up after losing a division game last week. KC should'nt be able to run the ball against them and their best WR just got suspended. Pitt wins big this week

[Gopher]

Does anyone like Pitt against the awful Chiefs. I hate to lay 10 but I can't see this being close.

 

 

:raiseshand: Pitt's gotta be fired up after losing a division game last week. KC should'nt be able to run the ball against them and their best WR just got suspended. Pitt wins big this week

I would tend to agree with you both... The only thing that makes me a little bit hesitant is that it appears that Polamalu won't play. We all saw earlier this season what a difference he makes to the defense... When he plays, they're arguably the most dominant defense in the league. When he doesn't, they're still better than average, but much more vulnerable. I still think they win by double digits, but without TP, it wouldn't surprise me to see a 24-16 type of game.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

For those interested here are some picks put out by a sports handicapping site , I have not followed them so not sure how they have been doing ?

 

 

PHI -3: One of the most dissapointing teams this season has been the CHI Bears. This will be the 2nd straight week that they are featured in a prime time game and think we will see the same results. When the trade of Cutler was made I wrote an article stating how over rated he was. His accuracy has been even worse this season and his decision making has been dowright terrible. The Bears have a lack of playmakers on offense that makes it even more difficult for an average QB to shine. The Eagles on the other hand have an abundance of playmakers. Jackson has been one of the better WR's in the league this year and is a threat to take it to the house on nearly every play. The Eagles have put themselves in a position where they need to finish 5-2 at a minimum and looking at their schedule this one is a must win. The Eagles defense has been exposed the last two weeks with the blitzes not finding their home very often. Good news this week is that the Bears offensive line can't protect Cutler and have been giving up a ton of sacks. This week the Eagles defense will carry the load creating a ton of to's and possibly even TD's. A double digit win by the Eagles.

 

Kyle Hunter

NFL | Nov 22

Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants Total

46 un-110 at BETUS > 20h.

The Atlanta Falcons become much more one dimensional with Michael Turner out of the lineup. Matt Ryan is having a tough time lately and the Giants defense will likely be swarming in this one. I see the Giants trying to run the football quite a bit in this one and the clock rolling while this one stays low scoring. The Giants know they need this win badly, and I think that will lead to one of the best defensive efforts we have seen from them in a while.

 

Black Widow

NFL | Nov 22

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pittsburgh Steelers

-10+100 at 5DIMES > 20h.

Widow's NFL Free Pick for Sunday:

 

1* on Pittsburgh Steelers -10

 

Off a devastating loss to the Bengals last week, the Steelers realize there is no longer any margin for error. Pittsburgh now sits 2 games behind Cincinnati in the AFC North after getting swept by the Bengals this season. We fully expect the Steelers to come into Kansas City 100% focused, which will allow them to dominate from start to finish. The Chiefs are scoring just 12.3 points/game at home this season, with their last home contest resulting in a 7-37 loss to San Diego. The Chiefs are just 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons. The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a non-losing road record. Kansas City is losing by an average of 12.5 points/game at home this season, so there is some value with Pittsburgh who is still one of the best teams in the league despite their 6-3 record. The Steelers' losses have come by 3, 3 and 6 points so they aren't far from being undefeated. We strongly feel a double-digit blowout in favor of Pittsburgh is inevitable by game's end in this one. Take the Steelers and lay the points.

 

***JAW-DROPPING 52-26 (67%) NFL Record Since 2008!*** The Widow is 45-24 in the NFL in 2009 alone, and he's the #1 Ranked NFL Handicapper in 2009 by a LANDSLIDE! Check the leaderboard and see for yourself folks! Come play with the best in Week 11 with The Widow's Sunday NFL 7-Pack for $50.00! You pay only $7.15/play which is a small price to pay for the MASSIVE PROFITS you are about to receive! As always, this Sunday NFL 7-Pack is GUARANTEED to WIN or you PLAY FOR FREE Monday!

 

Alex Grosse

NFL | Nov 22

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City Chiefs

+11-115 at SIA > 20h.

Unlocked Sports 2* Freeplay

 

The Chiefs have not been an impressive football team this season but they are in a favorable position to cover the number against the Steelers. Troy Polomalu is out and this information alone gives us the green light to play K.C. as a double digit home underdog. Polomalu's presence makes the Pittsburgh Steelers a Super Bowl Contender. Without him Pittsburgh is not much better than an average football team. The Steelers are 1-5 ATS this season in games played without Polomalu and also including the games he played but left because of injury. The Steelers are not great at covering spreads, particularly on the road as they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road contests. One thing you have to understand with Mike Tomlin is that he plays to win and couldn't care less whether his team wins by 3 touchdowns or a field goal. As a result, the Steelers are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite. That being said, expect the Steelers to win but most likely by no more than a touchdown.

 

Alex is the #1 Ranked NFL Capper over the last 60 days and #3 on the NFL Leaderboard! His last 2 5Packs were 4-1! He has another winning 5Pack which includes a 5* Platinum Selection for this coming Sunday at a very special rate of only $39.99! If Alex fails to win at least 3 out of 5 selections you will have a 3 Day Subscription ABSOLUTELY FREE!

 

Bob Wingerter

NFL | Nov 22

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Total

45 ov-104 at 5DIMES > 1d.

If the guy thought his defense was any good, he would have punted on 4th down. After the Patriots’ defense gives up yards and points to the sorry Jets and their seriously deluded rookie QB, people will start to understand. The Patriots are back in we must out- score the opponent mode. The New England Patriots are ranked 2 on offense, averaging 416.8 yards per game. The Patriots are averaging 114.1 yards rushing and 302.7 yards passing so far this season. Over is 6-0-1 in Jets last 7 games in November and 5-1 in Jets last 6 vs. AFC. Over is 4-0-1 in Patriots last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. TAKE THE OVER HERE

 

Vernon Croy

-=TOP PLAY=-

NFL | Nov 22

Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys Washington Redskins

+11+100 at 5DIMES > 20h.

1* Take the Washington Redskins ATS, This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and we are getting very good line value with the Redskins here Sunday afternoon. The Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Cowboys and the Underdog has covered in 20 of the last 27 games between these two teams. The Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of -10.5 points or more and they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against an NFC East opponent. Dallas has not beaten the Redskins by more than 5 points over their last 4 meetings and the Redskins have won 2 of the last 4 meetings with the Cowboys outright. The Redskins are coming off a big win at home against Denver and I look for them to build on that win heading to Dallas. Take the Washington Redskins as my NFL Free Play for Sunday as they keep this game close.

 

Vernon Croy's 5-1 Overall NFL Run and 12-3 Overall Sports Run continues this week so grab Vernon's picks package today!

 

Wunderdog

NFL | Nov 22

Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants Atlanta Falcons

+7-120 at BODOG > 20h.

This game has become a pivotal one in the NFC as both of these teams sit at 5-4. The fact that the wildcard race sees four teams in the NFC at 5-4, the winner takes a leg up here while the loser could be in big trouble. The Giants opened the season with five straight wins, but have suddenly dropped four in a row. They own four of their five wins vs. teams that have a combined record of 8-28, so the jury is still out on just how good this team really is. The proof may be in the fact that this Giants team has allowed just 40 points in four games vs. losing teams (10 points per game), but they have been torched for 32.8 ppg in their five games against winning teams. New York's running game has not been as lethal this season, as in seasons' past. They are still gaining a respectable 4.37 yards per carry, but that pales in contrast to the potent land attack they had a year ago when they produced over five yards a pop. That has put QB Eli Manning in more situations of third and long. It has also shown itself in the interception department as Eli threw just 10 picks all last year and this year he has thrown eight already. The Giants No. 1 defensive ranking in yards allowed is misleading as they rank just No. 21 in the league in points allowed - worse than Atlanta. The Falcons have played their best after a straight-up loss where they are now 10-1 ATS, and I would expect their "A" game here which they have brought every time after a loss. This has been a road-dominated series over the years with the road team collecting the cash in the last seven, and that includes Atlanta getting the money in the last four played in New York. My computer matchup for this game has Atlanta keeping this one close. I agree that they will keep it close, and may even win.

 

Joseph D'Amico

NFL | Nov 22

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints

-11-105 at SPBOOK > 20h.

I recently had a tough go of it in the NFL. But as you know, YOU CAN'T KEEP A CHAMPION DOWN. I come out this week to have my best NFL week ever. I have an incredible day for you. I have my NFL LAS VEGAS STRIPMOVE GAME OF THE MONTH. My StripMove releases are 5-0 TY. This is my biggest one yet. I also have my NFL REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR. And my coveted AFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH. I have owned the AFC West this season. I will go a PERFECT 3-0 TODAY. Follow me to the cashiers window $$$$$$$$$$$.

 

 

Today's FREE WINNER is New Orleans over Tampa Bay.

 

 

The Buc's have taken alot of hits to their defense this year. Now, in the past week they have lost Safety Will Allen and LB Rod Wilson. That will just open the door even wider for the NFL's most explosive air attack. QB Drew Brees will add to his 19 TD's and 2559 YP. The successful running game of the Saint's, now makes them a double threat. Tampa's biggest losses this season were to New England 35-7, Philly 33-14, and New York 24-0. All teams that are considered passing teams. Today they must face the most feared passing team in the league. The Buc's will rely on the very inexperienced Josh Freeman at QB. The road team is 9-3 ATS their L12 meetings and the Saint's are 5-2 ATS their L7 in Tampa Bay. New Orleans is also 6-1-1 ATS their L8 road games and 11-3 ATS their L14 as a favorite. Tampa Bay is 3-8 ATS their L11 overall and 1-7 ATS their L8 at home. New Orleans lights up Tampa Bay. Thank you.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

another that stands out to me is Washington +11. Wash always plays Dallas tough ( at least IIRC). Dallas lost Colombo last week and just have'nt been playing very good football.

Double digits in an NFC East game? Seems like alot.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

It's 5:00 PST Saturday night and neither of my guys are offering the SD/Denver game yet ?

Anyone else seeing anything on this game ?

[Gopher]

It's 5:00 PST Saturday night and neither of my guys are offering the SD/Denver game yet ?

Anyone else seeing anything on this game ?

Nothing on Sportsbook. Still looking over tomorrow's games. Made a couple of small college plays today, but didn't really see much that I liked. So, even though it's somewhat out of character for me, I decided to do a monster 8-team money line parlay:

 

MTennSt -380

Missouri -600

Nebraska -800

SFlorida -550

FloridaSt -850

Iowa -500

Arkansas -450

TennesseeU -800

 

Florida State (who was favored by 17) turned out to be the only really scare out of the bunch... They held on to win 29-26. None of the others ended up within a touchdown, even though a couple were close at the half. So, I ended up with a nice payout of approximately 2.5 times my original bet.

 

Now, I just need to be careful that I don't get too crazy, going into tomorrow, since I'll be playing with house money, basically.

[SheikYerbuti]

An undefeated team only laying 1 to a 5-4 team coming off a truly unimpressive win against the worst team in the league?

 

Man does that look

[kroyrunner89]

We got the week off to a good start with Miami coming through for us and winning, but we still have a few plays to go that will hopefully seal out a good week. This was a tough week for me to pick as I didn't like a lot of what my system was recommending, and I felt that it was a very tight set of lines. However, I've managed to pull a couple more plays together that I think have a great chance of coming through. Here's what I've got this weekend:

 

* Chargers/Broncos UNDER 45

 

I'm liking this under for all the same reasons I liked it the first time, and we get more points this time. I'm going to have to cross my fingers that we don't see three return touchdowns again. Although Denver's defense seemed to get a bit exposed last week in Washington, I still think they're a top notch unit and just came out a bit flat last week. At home against the Chargers this week, you can be sure they'll be fired up, which is great to know given that they're the 6th best passing defense and 7th best rushing defense on the season. As far as the Chargers' defense goes, they're slightly above average in both pass and rush defense. The Eagles tore them up through the air last week, but I think with Orton out of this game we won't have to worry about too dangerous of a passing attack from the Broncos. They'll likely try to win this game on the ground, which should result in a lot of clock being run on scoring drives. I don't think we'll see another three special team touchdowns, and we shouldn't see many if any quick scores. This game should go under pretty easily, I see about 41 points being the ceiling in this one.

 

* Lions/Browns UNDER 38

 

I'm a little nervous about this one because it looks like an obvious pick. The Browns' offense has been terrible all year as everyone knows, and the Lions haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard either. There's only one way I can see this game going over, which would be if the Lions blow the Browns out. The Browns' defense is good enough to keep that from happening, and should come out fired up knowing that this is a rare opportunity for the team to win a game. I don't think the Cleveland offense will do much different than usual, trying to move the ball methodically down the field, meaning that even if they do somehow find the end zone they'll eat a lot of clock in the process. I can't imagine a likely scenario where more than 37 points are scored, so I'm going to roll with the under here and hope that the Lions can contain Cribbs.

 

That's it for this week, small week I know, but I'm going to continue picking my spots and not forcing any plays! Hopefully next weekend has a little more action for us! Good luck to everyone this week!

[Gopher]

6 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

Cowboys(Dallas) -5

SEA/MIN Over 40.5

 

Washington has traditionally played the Cowboys tough, but I think Dallas bounces back this week, from a deplorable showing last week in Green Bay. The Redskins are without their top two offensive players, Cooley and Portis, and I think they'll have a tough time keeping this game within single digits. Dallas wins 24-16. Meanwhile, Minnesota has a tendency to allow their opponents to stay in the game, even when they have no business doing so. I think the Vikings will be tough to stop, once again, but The Seahawks will score their share of points as well. Minnesota wins this one 31-21.

 

7 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

NO/TB Over 43.5

Seahawks(Seattle) +17.5

Chiefs(KansasCity) +17.5

 

As previously mentioned, I think Minnesota will give up some points to Seattle, particularly through the passing game. I like the Vikings to win... maybe even by double-digits. But, I think Seattle will keep it well within 17 points, as the Vikings have a tendency to struggle putting teams away. I'm having a hard time reading the NO/TB game... New Orleans SHOULD win this game easily, but two things make me less than certain that they will do so. First of all, they have had to come from behind to win multiple road games this year. They've got some injuries on defense, and are missing Reggie Bush as well. Meanwhile, Tampa is playing inspired football as of late... they're a FG away from a two-game winning streak. I think New Orleans will pull out another win, but I'm not entirely sure that they cover the 10.5 points. What I DO think will happen is that both teams will combine for well over 43.5 points in the game. I'm thinking NO 34-21.

 

Finally, the PIT-KC game is another one that I have gone back and forth on. The Steelers should win this game easily. Plus, Kansas City is losing at home by double-digits, on average. Sounds like a recipe for an easy two-touchdown win for Pittsburgh. But, the Steelers are once again without Troy Polamalu... I think they're a different team without their best player on the defensive side of the ball. I like them to win, but also think Kansas City will make a ball game out of it... keeping the final score within two touchdowns. Pittsburgh 27-20.

 

6.5 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

Giants(NewYork) -0.5

ATL/NYG Over 39.5

 

This one is pretty simple... I like the Giants' chances of winning a home game that they really need to win, coming off a bye-week. With Turner out, Matt Ryan is going to have to throw more than usual to give the Falcons a chance... I think this will lead to more points for both teams. Don't be surprised if the Giants defense plays well in this game, and maybe even adds a defensive touchdown to put the game out of reach late. New Yord wins 31-17.

 

6 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

Packers(GreenBay) -0.5

Ravens(Baltimore) +7.5

 

I like the way GB's defense played last week. I think they are primed and ready to force Alex Smith into at least 2-3 turnovers on Sunday. As much as I would like to say the Niners (who I predicted to win the West) will win this game, I just don't see them going into Green Bay and winning, considering how bad the Packers made Dallas look last week. If they can shut Romo and company down, I think they'll do enough to beat SF at home as well. GB 20-14. The Indy-Baltimore game is one that I could see going either way. The Colts are undefeated, while Baltimore is 5-4, and coming off of a very weak win against the lowly Cleveland Browns. At first glance, this smells like another win for Peyton Manning. I'm just not so sure that will happen... The Colts still haven't played anybody, particularly on the road. Of their nine victories, two have been against teams with winning records... Both of those came at home, by a combined total of FOUR points. In other words, they need to win a road game against a quality opponent before they'll have me convinced that they can cover as a road favorite, no matter how small the line is. I'm also not sure that last Monday night's showing by the Ravens has as much to do with their offense struggling, as it does the Browns having a better-than-advertised defense. Indy's secondary is beat up, and Flacco should be able to throw the ball effectively against them... at least enough to keep the ball out of Manning's hands at times. I'm not convinced Baltimore will beat the Colts straight up, but I think they've got a really good chance of keeping it close... at least closer than a TD. I'm predicting 19-16, and I'm not even sure who wins.

 

6 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

Jaguars(Jacksonville) -2.5

Under 48.5

 

6 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

Bills(Buffalo) +14.5

BUF/JAC Over 36.5

 

What can I say... Call me crazy, but I think I've got this game pegged. Jacksonville isn't good enough to be giving anybody more than a touchdown, in my opinion. On the other hand, I really can't see Buffalo beating the Jaguars, considering how poorly they play on the road, combined with the fact that they are missing multiple key players on defense. Maurice Jones-Drew should have another big game this week... I like Jacksonville to win the game, but if Buffalo can keep it within two TD's, I might win both teasers. Worst case scenario is that I win neither... Either a Jacksonville blowout or a low-scoring close game would make that happen. I'm playing this one both ways, and hoping for a 27-17 win for the Jags.

 

Lions(Detroit) -3.5

 

I already mentioned this earlier in the week... As bad as Detroit is (and I think they are not playing nearly as well as they were two months ago), I still like their chances to beat the Browns by at least a TD. Cleveland is by far the worst offense in the NFL... They have a better chance of scoring on defense/special teams than they do with Quinn at the helm on offense. Detroit has Stafford, Smith, and Johnson back... and relatively healthy. I think Detroit wins this one 20-10.

 

6 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

Titans(Tennessee) +10.5

TEN/HOU Over 42

 

Should be another high-scoring affair between two teams that like to score points against each other. Tennessee's defense is healthy, though, and playing better than they were in week 2. I like them to possibly win straight up, but will stick with this teaser to play it safe.

 

I'll let you all know my thoughts on the late games tomorrow, sometime tomorrow morning.

[rattsass]

This looks like a brutal week. Spreads are mostly huge, and the ones that aren't don't look so easy. I'm going with a small cajones play:

 

NE -.5

Dal-1

Cin +1 on a 10 point teaser.

 

The game that is the most interesting is the Colts/Ravens. Spread now at Colts -2. Every serious gamber in the world is convinced that Baltimore is THE play this week. They have seen that scenario too many times. A seemingly low number against an undefeated team at home. It is almost like Vegas is begging you to take the Colts. But after watching the Ravens muck around on Monday night against the Browns, it is hard to imagine how they are going to take down Peyton and company. It may be the wrong play, but I am already locked in with Colts -1.

[Gopher]

Adding a 5-team money line parlay for today:

 

Patriots (NewEngland) -620

Cowboys (Dallas) -550

Saints (NewOrleans) -525

Vikings (Minnesota) -550

Steelers (Pittsburgh) -600

 

Good luck, everyone!

[1stand10]

Week 11

Lions -3.5

Giants -6.5

Jags -9

Redskins +11

Vikes -11

GB -6.5

Colts -1

Chargers -5

Bengals -9.5

Eagles -3

[Do Work Son]

GB/SF Over 42

 

Saints -11 Bucs come back to reality