BeachBum Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 Not really a WDIS any more. Tried this on the "Advice" board, and got some, but I really wanted to discuss the concept: when all the 'experts' are calling it a draw, how do YOU break the tie? My 2nd RB (used to be Ronnie Brown or Portis) is now a choice between Chris Brown, Houston, or Justin Forsett, Seattle. Both are projected to play this week, Brown "start", Forsett might start or not. Projections of several sites have them fairly even: DMD has 40 yds, 1 td for each. Other sites range from 40 to 65 yds each, usually no TDs. They play each other's team - Seattle ranks 15th in RB points given up, Houston 21st.The game is in Houston, so no weather concerns. SO how do YOU pick between equals? Toss a coin? Alphabetical order? First one to make your squad? Or just a gut feel? (Opie says "pick the one on TV"). Any thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 Not really a WDIS any more. Tried this on the "Advice" board, and got some, but I really wanted to discuss the concept: when all the 'experts' are calling it a draw, how do YOU break the tie? My 2nd RB (used to be Ronnie Brown or Portis) is now a choice between Chris Brown, Houston, or Justin Forsett, Seattle. Both are projected to play this week, Brown "start", Forsett might start or not. Projections of several sites have them fairly even: DMD has 40 yds, 1 td for each. Other sites range from 40 to 65 yds each, usually no TDs. They play each other's team - Seattle ranks 15th in RB points given up, Houston 21st.The game is in Houston, so no weather concerns. SO how do YOU pick between equals? Toss a coin? Alphabetical order? First one to make your squad? Or just a gut feel? (Opie says "pick the one on TV"). Any thoughts? I usually compare mine to DMD's and see if there is any real big difference between close players. If we're close than I'll go with my gut feeling or select the player with the better matchup. In the situation you're dealing with, I have Forsett ranked very highly this week (probably higher than most including the Huddle) and would go with him over Brown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 I usually go to NFL.com and look at defensive stats for the opposing defense. Whichever one is going against the worst relevant defense I lean in that direction. If they are close there, I look at which guy is at home. If neither are at home I look at the team fighting for a playoff spot. If they are both eliminated from the playoffs, I drink an extra beer, then make a decision on which name I recognize first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 (edited) If it is truly a toss-up, I will pick the player who plays in the later game. That way I have something more I can hope for while the rest of my team screws me over during the early games. Edited December 13, 2009 by wiegie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cliaz Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 I usually compare mine to DMD's and see if there is any real big difference between close players. If we're close than I'll go with my gut feeling or select the player with the better matchup. In the situation you're dealing with, I have Forsett ranked very highly this week (probably higher than most including the Huddle) and would go with him over Brown. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 I usually go to NFL.com and look at defensive stats for the opposing defense. Whichever one is going against the worst relevant defense I lean in that direction. If they are close there, I look at which guy is at home. If neither are at home I look at the team fighting for a playoff spot. If they are both eliminated from the playoffs, I drink an extra beer, then make a decision on which name I recognize first. I have also, just for sh!ts and giggles, asked my wife or kids who they like better out of 2 or 3 players and when I'm totally torn have actually played the one they've suggested. Anyone ever do that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Easy n Dirty Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 If all else fails, I usually go with my gut. Unfortunately, time has proven that my gut is an idiot when it comes to these choices, but I don't know of any other way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeachBum Posted December 13, 2009 Author Share Posted December 13, 2009 I have also, just for sh!ts and giggles, asked my wife or kids who they like better out of 2 or 3 players and when I'm totally torn have actually played the one they've suggested. Anyone ever do that? LOL, I used to do that at draft time, many years ago. Then I discovered my wife like the 'strange' names: I kept drafting Yancy Thigpen instead of Jerry Rice! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeachBum Posted December 13, 2009 Author Share Posted December 13, 2009 If it is truly a toss-up, I will pick the player who plays in the later game. That way I have something more I can hope for while the rest of my team screws me over during the early games. I like this! Ooops, these two guys are playing in the same game! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 I try to play the games out in my head after I learn about the factors of the game. I take into account recent injuries, trends, etc. Then just play the game out a few times until I come up with the way I think it is really going to go down. I had a mediocre success rate for the last few years until last year. I stopped looking at projections altogether. I just get to know the teams pretty well, the history of the two teams against each other, and play the games out in my head. Hopefully on my way to my first back-to-back championship seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeachBum Posted December 13, 2009 Author Share Posted December 13, 2009 I try to play the games out in my head after I learn about the factors of the game. I take into account recent injuries, trends, etc. Then just play the game out a few times until I come up with the way I think it is really going to go down. I had a mediocre success rate for the last few years until last year. I stopped looking at projections altogether. I just get to know the teams pretty well, the history of the two teams against each other, and play the games out in my head. Hopefully on my way to my first back-to-back championship seasons. I try that, then during the second quarter, I forget who's playing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 In the all things being equal world, I would usually break ties between players considering: 1. Risk - who has the better track record and is more likely to hit the mark? 2. Risk II - who is playing the toughest defense? 3. Risk III - Which player is at home? 4. Upside - which has the best chance of exceeding the mark? Mostly from their past record. Hard numbers have their place in the decision making process but so do the risk and upside angles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocknrobn26 Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 I usually ask the wife what color spamshirts are best. She usually says Blue over Green....Any color over Black...Silver sucks and Brown is ick!! Seriously though... I look more to match-ups. A great receiver against a dominant "D" has to be 2nd vs a decent receiver vs a a bad "D". Am I playing you this week??? Good luck regardless, Double B! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargerz Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 (edited) When there are two players with equal projections I usually ask my son-in-law for advice. He's pretty smart. ETA: On a more serious note, I will also look at the weather report. If one of the players is playing in cold, rainy, and/or windy conditions I will usually not start him. Edited December 13, 2009 by Chargerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfer Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 Before you call 2 people equals, do you have all the latest info? Mora seems pretty excited to have forsett at 100% health this week. Also, Kubiak wants Arian Foster to have 5 touches and 'give me a reason to give him 10 touches'. Nothing like a good challenge! Once the coaches and injury reports have given you insight, get the latest weather reports. A guy actually dressed big ben in one of my leagues wed. morning without checking conditions thursday. Disaster. Don't be that guy! If you have the best info possible on 2 equals, now you have to decide on who likely wins the game and how they go about winning said game. Not easy and ultimately consulting your gut is what most people do. Or wives, or my 2-year old daughter. You know, impartial bystanders :p My .02, forsett will excel as a receiver. He'd be my ppr choice. Standard? um...ya, uh, where's my trusty coin... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satelliteoflovegm Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 If your desperate, check the birthdays for the players, I once started Irving Fryar cause it was his birthday and it paid off nicely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 (edited) -1 This is the most brilliant one character post ever. Edited December 13, 2009 by MikesVikes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 Menudo's kid. Works like a charm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pig devilz Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 GAWD!...I can't believe you guys! It's simple! Start whoever Henry Muto is starting!....sheesh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 This is the most brilliant one character post ever. That looks like 2 characters to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddahj Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 GAWD!...I can't believe you guys! It's simple! Start whoever Henry Muto is starting!....sheesh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeachBum Posted December 13, 2009 Author Share Posted December 13, 2009 OK based on all of this I'm sitting tham both and starting Rex Hudler, I mean Sex Hustler, uh Lex Hilliard. Hmmm, DMD, how about Rex Hudler - a pretty good name for a writer or spokesman for this site? With just a minor correction to the spelling of hiss last name. I know he's available cause the Angels just fired him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 if all aspects point to an even matchup then I will probably play the guy i want to see do better or his team win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
42zero Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 Forsett Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeachBum Posted December 13, 2009 Author Share Posted December 13, 2009 I usually ask the wife what color spamshirts are best.She usually says Blue over Green....Any color over Black...Silver sucks and Brown is ick!! Seriously though... I look more to match-ups. A great receiver against a dominant "D" has to be 2nd vs a decent receiver vs a a bad "D". Am I playing you this week??? Good luck regardless, Double B! Nah, it's JoJo the Drug Lord! And thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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