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Top picks next year - an early guess


BeeR
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The other thread didn't seem to be speaking to this like I figured, so -

 

Some guesses offhand, top 5ish:

 

QB

Brees

Manning

Rodgers

Rivers

Shaub (who will be overpaid for)

Brady?

 

RB (this again looks dicier/harder to figure out than in years past)

Peterson

CJ

Rice

MJD

Jackson?

D Williams?

 

WR

AJ

Fitz

Marshall

Moss

Wayne

 

 

TE

Clark

Gates

Gonzo?

Witten

Davis (another overpay I think)

 

 

Y/N?

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if schaub goes 5th or 6th I cannot see how that is overpaying. He is guaranteed 10 dome/warm weather games a year in a top 10 offense, has elite skills and good weapons surrounding him (daniels returning to 100% health is icing).

 

Davis is an overpay only if taken too early in the draft. We all learned that TE have become a 'dime-a-dozen' position that can wait until later rounds. Nothing wrong with ranking him top 2-3 now though (Gates turns 30, witten doesn't score TDs, gonzo isn't the focal point).

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I think Deshaun Jackson may be worthy of some upper tier wr conversation at this point

Exactly what I was going to say.

 

Probably have to have CJ above AD at this point. Vernon Davis is the staple of that passing game and won't slide too much. He may well catch less TD's, but it won't be from lack of trying to get him the ball. A lot of things could change with player movement in the offseason as well. Some WR's could lose or gain quality QB's. I'm not sur Schaub is that overrated either, Andre is that good and Daniels will be back. Also, Benson just might get himself into the RB debate.

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All around number 1 pick, Chris Johnson, could there be anyone else?
Depends on league scoring as well as what some teams do with off season roster moves. I could see AP still going #1, especially if Favre doesn't come back.

 

I think CJ will be at the top of the list in most leagues, but not necessarily all.

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Depends on league scoring as well as what some teams do with off season roster moves. I could see AP still going #1, especially if Favre doesn't come back.

 

I think CJ will be at the top of the list in most leagues, but not necessarily all.

 

Does he get the same amount of long TD's he had this year? History would say NO.

 

I may buck the trend and take ADP over CJ actually.

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In a PPR league I think Welker has to be in the top 5. He's the most consistent WR in the league in that format. He's by far the best WR this year in PPG. I think CJ has to top the RB list. What he's doing this year is down right amazing. After CJ, AP, Rice and MJD it's anybody's guess who the next tier is.

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Depends on league scoring as well as what some teams do with off season roster moves. I could see AP still going #1, especially if Favre doesn't come back.

 

You do realize that AP has 14 Td's through 13 games this year, and he only had 10 Td's last year in 16 games?

Edited by Jackass
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Why?

 

I think I'd take him second to only Clark.

Too many ? marks and not nearly enough of a track record. Will Smith still be the QB, will that connection they have sustain or not (or be guarded better), will Smith suck or is he turning the corner, etc etc. Or even simply a regression to the norm (although it's hard to know what his "norm" really is). Sure I'd like to get him but a lot of people still can't resist chasing last year and overpay for guys because of it.

 

 

 

I think Deshaun Jackson may be worthy of some upper tier wr conversation at this point

Yep for sure. I targeted him this year in fact, but he became too trendy of a "sleeper" pick and went earlier than expected.

 

 

if schaub goes 5th or 6th I cannot see how that is overpaying. He is guaranteed 10 dome/warm weather games a year in a top 10 offense, has elite skills and good weapons surrounding him (daniels returning to 100% health is icing).

I still don't trust his health (paranoid I guess). And no way is Owens 100% next year, he may also be an overpay.

Edited by BeeR
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Too many ? marks and not nearly enough of a track record. Will Smith still be the QB, will that connection they have sustain or not (or be guarded better), will Smith suck or is he turning the corner, etc etc. Or even simply a regression to the norm (although it's hard to know what his "norm" really is). Sure I'd like to get him but a lot of people still can't resist chasing last year and overpay for guys because of it.

 

I can see those question marks and understand them...but OTOH, you could aregue that people overpay for the likes of Gonzo and Gates, since their PPG compared to the likes of Shiancoe/Celek/Miller/Daniels/etc hardly reflects their ADP of what is likely a 3-6 round premium.

 

Speaking of Celek, he's currently 5th in PPR leagues in just his 1st season starting, is only 24 and getting much much better with every game, and plays for Reid in an offense that passes the ball an average of 47 times per game. How can he not be top 5?

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I would put Brent Celek in the top tier of TEs if they do not add competition at the position.

 

Hard to imagine the Eagles wanting him on the field less, and taking up a roster spot to achieve that goal? For the same reason other top-tier TEs have no competition at their position, I seriously doubt Celek will, either.

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Hard to imagine the Eagles wanting him on the field less, and taking up a roster spot to achieve that goal? For the same reason other top-tier TEs have no competition at their position, I seriously doubt Celek will, either.

 

Oh, I agree . . . but still had to throw that out there.

 

The redskins have Chris Cooley . . but still drafted Fred Davis in the 2nd round. You never know how the NFL draft will fall . .

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Shaub (who will be overpaid for)

There's not only the injury issue but the coaching issue. Houston's coaching staff could be in flux this offseason. That probably means more to Schaub's (and AJ's) value than anything else.

 

ETA: Really the entire offense, especially Daniels, could be effected if the Texans do some overhauling of coaches. The Texans may be kind of a mess but they've quietly been a FF gold mine recently.

Edited by kingfish247
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The other thread didn't seem to be speaking to this like I figured, so -

 

Some guesses offhand, top 5ish:

 

 

RB (this again looks dicier/harder to figure out than in years past)

Peterson

CJ

Rice

MJD

Jackson?

D Williams?

Why is S. Jackson ranked in the top 10 every year when the Rams suck? Are they going to suck less next year? The only way Jackson is even considered here is if they go out and buy an offensive line.

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