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Post things you learned to make u better for next year..


Gut Crusher
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I ironically picked 5th in the 3 leagues I played in. I ended up with players like Forte, LT, MJD, Slaton, R. Brown, McFizzle, Jennings, Calvin Johnson, D.Bowe.. To make a long story short, behind injuries/underperforming/ fumbling/ steroids, I had a mediocre year, but actually made it to week 14 in all leagues. The only players I had that performed well/over performed were R. Brown/Gates/ D. Jackson, the rest were under performers or busts..Things I learned:

 

1. Don't wait til the 9th round to pick up a Qb in a 12 team league.

2. Don't trust Kubiak....Or rb's that fumble on Kubiaks team

3. Handcuff when u can ( had Brown and didnt get R.Williams)

4. Avoid having TWO stud recievers on crap teams, i.e. C.Johnson/D.Bowe

5. Avoid being desperate and starting A.Foster over Barber, even tho Barber hadn't done poopy all year.

6. In a big money league don't go against B.Marshall week#14...And then R.White/Celek week#16, just to finally crush all my chances for 3rd place.

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Don't overthink your starting lineup. Do your research, make a judgment call based on the facts, and stick with it. it's when you get cute that you end up making a bonehead move that costs you in the playoffs (like starting Arian Foster in week 15 when LT and Snelling are on your bench).

 

Something else I've learned... Be patient. I dropped Jamaal Charles in one league when KC looked like it was going nowhere earlier this year. But someone else in my main local dropped Jermichael Finley right before he blew up vs. the Vikings in week 6. Beanie Wells owners know what I'm talking about. Getting impatient is probably the worst sin you can commit in fantasy football. You drop guys you shouldn't and you make trades you shouldn't.

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1-The Raiders will ruin the chances of the success of their RB's no matter how good they are.

2- The NFL is a pass heavy league, teams will pass no matter the weather, only strong winds are to worry about.

3- Chris Johnson may be the best athlete in the league and barring injury will be the next Allen/Dickerson/LT stud for years to come. #1 pick in any league setting.

4- Simply can't wait too long to draft QB's, yes round 5 will be too long next year, write it down, trust me.

5- Take chances on about 2-3 rookie RB's late in drafts. One will likely pan out, and be your RB2 or flex by week 12 or 13.

6- Don't put much trust on predictions, projections, or pre season player rankings.

7- Unless you make your own, cheat sheets for the most part suck.

8- Waiting on TE's is becoming a thing of the past.

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Something I knew but other folks didn't learn from posts pre-draft on the boards - NEVER touch a RB who's had >370 carries the previous year (Forte, Turner).

 

Don't get trigger happy and drop projects too soon. I dropped Sidney Rice in week 2 and traded C Benson for Santonio Holmes before week one.

 

I still say wait till the 6th round for a QB, or don't spend a ton in an auction unless it's a 2QB league.

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no matter how good you think a player is, don't draft them if they're hurt or suspended and will miss 2-3 of the season's first games. (lynch)

 

Funny, Brandon Marshall was both hurt and suspended at the start of this season. I would probably say this rule makes more sense when you are talking about running backs. Wide receiver talent is harder to replace.

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1. Don't wait til the 9th round to pick up a Qb in a 12 team league.

For at least a few years I always always waited to pick a QB with usually not great results.

This year in my biggest league (local) I took Rodgers rd 3 pick 3. Lost in the 1st round of the playoffs.

In a smaller $ local I waited and took Schaub and Palmer in rds 9 and 10. Won the league this past weekend.

 

:wacko:

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First and foremost:

 

PAY attention to the scoring system in each league. I have tended to rank players somewhat generically, and that hurt me because I did not customize my rankings accordingly enough. I did not cookie-cut all of my drafts, but I could have done a better job custonmizing my rankings in a given league. That was my biggest lesson this year.

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Funny, Brandon Marshall was both hurt and suspended at the start of this season. I would probably say this rule makes more sense when you are talking about running backs. Wide receiver talent is harder to replace.

Smitty did well after a 2 game suspension last year too

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I'm going to be a contrarian and say take a QB early. Those consistent points can really help you week-to-week (thanks Peyton). Of course my experience was in a dynasty league. Also make sure you have good backups for week 15-16 for when teams like the Colts throw in the towel. (thanks Brett) RB's who catch the ball are gold in a PPR. Of course that's nothing new to anyone.

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I think I disagree with more than I agree with of thse things learned.

 

1. Way too situationally dependent to make a blanket statement like this.

 

2. Regarding the RBs, the rule is just don;t trust RBs that fumble to keep jobs very long.

 

3. Unneeded. If you have depth, then it is irrelevant if it is in the form of a handcuff or in the form of a productive player from another team. I would argue that the latter is actually more valuable as that player can also serve as a bye week/matchup player and trade bait, whereas most handcuffs only have value if the starter gets hurt.

 

4. Bowe was performing just fine until he got suspended. I'd rather just have stud WRs that perform. Many over the years have come from horrible NFL teams.

 

5. Meh, guess it relates to the depth issue brought up in #3 (and the fumbling in #2), but, hindsight is 20/20, so as long as you made the decision using all available information and would make the same decision given the same information and not knowing the results, then there is no lesson to be learned.

 

6. Not really a lesson, so no further comment needed.

 

 

#3 and to an extent #1 are the only ones I see that could be some good offseason fodder for separate threads in the advice forum on general FF strategy.

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I'm going to be a contrarian and say take a QB early. Those consistent points can really help you week-to-week (thanks Peyton). Of course my experience was in a dynasty league. Also make sure you have good backups for week 15-16 for when teams like the Colts throw in the towel. (thanks Brett) RB's who catch the ball are gold in a PPR. Of course that's nothing new to anyone.

 

 

Depends on the QB and where you can get them at.

 

Look at this season. There are 9 QBs within 80 points of each other (based on Huddle Scoring). That's 5 points per game. Among those are the big 4 heading into the season (Rodgers, Manning, Brady and Brees), and also some of the more hyped, yet still able to get after the 6th and later guys like Schaub and Roethlisberger to name a few.

 

Conversely, there are only 4 Rbs within 80 points of the top, yet in most leagues you are required to start twice as many RBs. Three of these guys were consensus first round picks (Chris Johnson, ADP and MJD) and the other is Ray Rice, who was most definitely on the radar of Huddlers but not neccessarily the layperson, thus his ADP as the 22nd RB off the board.

 

The drops in scoring in the next tier are even more pronounced.

 

As for WRs, there are 23 WRs within 80 points of the #1 WR, with values like Miles Austin, Desean Jackson, Vincent Jackson (sorry DMD, had to do it) all within about 30 points of the #1 guy.

 

 

What I am getting at is, despite all the hype this preseason about the value of a stud WR and the need to grab a QB early, and to wait, wait wait on an RB, the stats thus far seem to indicate that it is still a lot easier to find value later on in the draft at QB and WR, while taking a higher number of shots at drafting an elite RB or 2 in the early rounds.

 

It also does indicate that taking an RB early is a risky proposition, but the payoff of getting one of those elite few early on tempered with the higher likelihood of finding QBs and WRs that perform closer to the levels of the QBs/WRs taken in the first 3 rounds, thus allowing you to spend even more picks on the few RBs with a higher likelihood of being an elite back seems to be a strategy with a much higher potential success rate than the flavor of the year of going with WRs and Qbs early and waiting much later on an RB.

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Sometimes RB handcuffs aren't handcuffs. I started (in the same league) Ricky and Ronnie together (flexed to 3 RB's) and three times I started Rice and MaGahee. Gore was my every week starter. That worked out very well. Later in the season, MaGahee got benched, and when Ronnie went down, Ricky's value went up significantly.

 

In the days of RBBC, starting 3 RB's, including 2 from the same NFL team may be a viable flex strategy. I started a thread on this subject mid-season. There are several NFL teams that this idea might work well for next year too. It's more than a handcuff strategy for a good number of NFL teams now headed into next year. Get a run oriented team with two RB's... it did work for me at least early this season.

 

The bonus is if one goes down... you get that benefit too.

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Sometimes RB handcuffs aren't handcuffs. I started (in the same league) Ricky and Ronnie together (flexed to 3 RB's) and three times I started Rice and MaGahee. Gore was my every week starter. That worked out very well. Later in the season, MaGahee got benched, and when Ronnie went down, Ricky's value went up significantly.

 

In the days of RBBC, starting 3 RB's, including 2 from the same NFL team may be a viable flex strategy. I started a thread on this subject mid-season. There are several NFL teams that this idea might work well for next year too. It's more than a handcuff strategy for a good number of NFL teams now headed into next year. Get a run oriented team with two RB's... it did work for me at least early this season.

 

The bonus is if one goes down... you get that benefit too.

 

 

IMO though, it would not be a "strategy" to target it, but would rather be kind of like the QB/WR combo, it is neither something to target or avoid, so long as the player you are drafting is the player that you have as the highest rated at the position you have decided to take. In other words, I would not target a Ricky Williams over a player I have rated higher just because I have Brown on my team.

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IMO though, it would not be a "strategy" to target it, but would rather be kind of like the QB/WR combo, it is neither something to target or avoid, so long as the player you are drafting is the player that you have as the highest rated at the position you have decided to take. In other words, I would not target a Ricky Williams over a player I have rated higher just because I have Brown on my team.

 

The question is how do you rate RBBC RB's in the first place? My thinking is to get that evey week starting feature RB. That means a very early draft pick. It;s far too early to project which teams might be full blown RBBC's next year, but as the season approaches, it clears up a little bit. Those RBBC RB's fall in the draft. Yes, I think I will target a run oriented NFL team that looks like a full blown RBBC and plan of flex starting both.

 

Last year, I sort of fell into Rice and MaGahee, but I started them both and won several times. Maybe next year it's Addai and Brown. LT and Sproles. Bradshaw and Jacobs. Ricky and Ronnie again. Jones and Washington. Hightower and Wells. Dallas. New Orelans.

 

Oh, it's a strategy alright, but will it work? It's a bit like leagues where you pick a team's QB, not the QB, the player. Get both RB's. Take that team's running attack. Try to get every point a run oriented NFL team's RB's will produce. This only works in leagues with a flex. And I did not start 3 RB's every single week... sometimes I flexed to a WR based on matchups.

 

Just to play devil's advocate... what if I drafted Jacobs and Ronnie Brown? Instead of Brown and Williams or Bradshaw and Jacobs this year?

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Don't overthink your starting lineup. Do your research, make a judgment call based on the facts, and stick with it. it's when you get cute that you end up making a bonehead move that costs you in the playoffs (like starting Arian Foster in week 15 when LT and Snelling are on your bench).

 

Something else I've learned... Be patient. I dropped Jamaal Charles in one league when KC looked like it was going nowhere earlier this year. But someone else in my main local dropped Jermichael Finley right before he blew up vs. the Vikings in week 6. Beanie Wells owners know what I'm talking about. Getting impatient is probably the worst sin you can commit in fantasy football. You drop guys you shouldn't and you make trades you shouldn't.

+1 these were two of my biggest faults this year.

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It all depends on the scoring and when you draft. Drafting in the Ladder is pretty cool because it's the first draft and starts before pre-season has ironed out a lot of the question marks. IMO, the way to have a good draft is know what others are prolly gonna do and do something different.

 

1) Know your opponents. You know who the guys are that will go RB/RB/RB every year, and prolly take RB4 with the 5th pick.

2) Good players on crappy teams don't have the opportunity to score as much as teams you know will score a lot of points. Stay away from the Raiders, Lions and Redskins.

3) You can wait on your RB2 until very late. There has to be holes, so if you accept the RB2 will be weak at the expense of a better QB/WR/TE it's all the same. RB's get hurt more than any other position, which makes having a healthy stud QB worth the lowered risk.

4) Don't believe in the cheat sheets or ADP; Addai was a good example this year.

5) Gates and Clark will go in the third round next year.

6) Draft value when it's obvious. If a draft goes funky and a stud QB falls when you already have one, go for it and change the draft. Making moves you can cash in on an early trade in the first few weeks is underrated IMO.

7) Bye weeks don't mean squat... don't even look at them. You can always pick a player off the wire for a one week fill.

8) Picking at the turn is the easiest to mock if you're going to try something different.

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The question is how do you rate RBBC RB's in the first place? My thinking is to get that evey week starting feature RB. That means a very early draft pick. It;s far too early to project which teams might be full blown RBBC's next year, but as the season approaches, it clears up a little bit. Those RBBC RB's fall in the draft. Yes, I think I will target a run oriented NFL team that looks like a full blown RBBC and plan of flex starting both.

 

Last year, I sort of fell into Rice and MaGahee, but I started them both and won several times. Maybe next year it's Addai and Brown. LT and Sproles. Bradshaw and Jacobs. Ricky and Ronnie again. Jones and Washington. Hightower and Wells. Dallas. New Orelans.

 

Oh, it's a strategy alright, but will it work? It's a bit like leagues where you pick a team's QB, not the QB, the player. Get both RB's. Take that team's running attack. Try to get every point a run oriented NFL team's RB's will produce. This only works in leagues with a flex. And I did not start 3 RB's every single week... sometimes I flexed to a WR based on matchups.

 

Just to play devil's advocate... what if I drafted Jacobs and Ronnie Brown? Instead of Brown and Williams or Bradshaw and Jacobs this year?

 

 

In league;s where you pick a Team Qb, you are still using one roster spot to lock up the entire position. In this case, you are having to use up not just two or more roster spots to lock up said position, but also two or more starting positions. It comes down to how you rate players. If when you do ratings you rate two parts of a full blown RBBC fairly high, and they are the ones available to you at your picks where you decide to take an RB, then by all means, I would take both. But, I would not target, or adjust my ranking of players simply because I drafted the other part of the committee earlier on. Who you have on your fantasy team has no impact on their actual production, so to use that to adjust your player rankings is a fallacious strategy.

 

As for your example, you could use any example you want, but how did you rank the players at the time you drafted, as obviously with the knowledge of how these particular players production turned out, the choices are clear, but hindsight is 20/20 and if we could all accurately predict the future and how players will perform, we wouldn't be able to play the game. So, what I am getting at is if heading into your draft, you had Bradshaw ranked ahead of Williams, but took Williams over Bradshaw because you had previously drafted Brown, you have made a strategic error.

 

Now, I will grant some level of value for "insurance", but that is a very minor consideration, especially since we are discussing the drafting of a starting spot still.

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In league;s where you pick a Team Qb, you are still using one roster spot to lock up the entire position. In this case, you are having to use up not just two or more roster spots to lock up said position, but also two or more starting positions. It comes down to how you rate players. If when you do ratings you rate two parts of a full blown RBBC fairly high, and they are the ones available to you at your picks where you decide to take an RB, then by all means, I would take both. But, I would not target, or adjust my ranking of players simply because I drafted the other part of the committee earlier on. Who you have on your fantasy team has no impact on their actual production, so to use that to adjust your player rankings is a fallacious strategy.

 

As for your example, you could use any example you want, but how did you rank the players at the time you drafted, as obviously with the knowledge of how these particular players production turned out, the choices are clear, but hindsight is 20/20 and if we could all accurately predict the future and how players will perform, we wouldn't be able to play the game. So, what I am getting at is if heading into your draft, you had Bradshaw ranked ahead of Williams, but took Williams over Bradshaw because you had previously drafted Brown, you have made a strategic error.

 

Now, I will grant some level of value for "insurance", but that is a very minor consideration, especially since we are discussing the drafting of a starting spot still.

 

I said it was a "bit" like leagues that allow one to draft a team QB. I understand it takes another roster spot.

 

As teams that use RBBC's becomes a bit more clear at draft time, I might load up on stud WR's in rounds 2 thru 4 and then go after two RB's from the same NFL team in round 5 and 8, say. Your comment about predictions has little meaning, because that is what we do every time we draft. What I am suggesting here is projecting an NFL TEAM's total RB points shared between 2 RB's.

 

This approach would be more difficult in offensive player only leagues, but it's doable in full IDP leagues, where RB's drop even more. It also requires that a flex is allowed. How high will Hightower and Wells go next year? Not a bad duo to flex. You can draft them late, and basically have the AZ RB's for the year. If one goes down, you have the additional benefit of the handcuff.

 

I went this way in an IDP redrfat league and won it. Gore early, Rice in the 4th, MaGahee in like the 10th, and R Bown in the third (took Wayne in the second), R Williams around the 10th. It was golden. This was not my strategy going in, but given the way it worked out, I beleive that in some leagues, it is a viable strategy. I think it would be much more difficult to make work in offensive player only leagues. That 2nd RB might not drop far enough to make it work.

 

My point is, is it better to have two RB's from different NFL teams that are in a full blown RBBC or is it better to have both RB's from the same team in a full blown RBBC? In a flex league, where you can start 3 RB's? This doesn't mean you have to start both RB's every week... but if the matchup is right, and they two RB's face a very poor run D... you start both. You can flex to a WR on a bad matchup week as well.

 

RBBC is taking over the NFL, and I think a little outside the box thinking is in order now.

Edited by Rovers
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