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Top 12 RB for 2010


Dexter Morgan
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Thoughts on the possibility of Jamaal Charles, Moreno or Beanie Wells entering the Top 12 mix?

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Just an early look....

 

1. Chris Johnson

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Michael Turner

4. Mo Drew

5. Ray Rice

6. Frank Gore

7. DeAngelo Williams

8. Steven Jackson

9. Rashard Mendenhall

10. Cedric Benson

11. Ryan Grant

12. Thomas Jones

 

Discuss...

 

I put J Charles in there. Remember LT plays for a good chargers offense and still put up 12 rushing tds......Other players off the top of my head...L Mccoy(1st see what happens with westbrook) B Wells

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Thoughts on the possibility of Jamaal Charles, Moreno or Beanie Wells entering the Top 12 mix?

 

Definite possibilities. The top 12 is just my early look. Would love to hear what others think and their own top 12. I play in a 12 team league, that's why I chose 12. Also it's for a non-PPR league.

 

Moreno and Beanie Wells were great as rookies. Beanie really came on in the second half of the season. LeSean McCoy was also pretty good. Jamaal Charles, I think, proved that LJ is a bum. Charles was fantastic when he took over and was really under the radar.

 

I'm waiting for Thomas Jones to hit that wall where you just know they're done. Happens to all the great RB. So far he's proven me wrong. He had another great year.

 

Jon Stewart is another guy. Even though he splits with DeAngelo, Stewart is scary good. To think Carolina had such a tough schedule for RB and had no QB (Matt Moore is light years better than Delhomme, think about that, Matt Moore) and both put up good numbers yet again, that's something.

 

Then there's Ronnie Brown. If only he could stay healthy.

 

Will be interesting to see if Matt Forte bounces back. He was drafted too high this year and I think he's gonna fall quite a bit next year.

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You also have a guy like Slaton out there who will undoubtedly be drafted at a value. I also like Kevin Smith but tearing that knee ligament won't help matters. Jerome Harrison is also intriguing. We also have to see what's going to happen in Washington, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Oakland, New England, Buffalo, Chicago, San Diego, Indy, Philly and New Orleans. Lots of sharing going on in those places or veteran players who may be moving on. And we all know that some drafted rookie/s will come into the picture and perform well.

Edited by irish
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Here is mine for PPR:

 

1. Chris Johnson

2. Maurice Jones Drew

3. Adrian Peterson

4. Ray Rice

5. Steven Jackson

6. Michael Turner

7. Frank Gore

8. DeAngelo Williams

9. Jamaal Charles

10. Cedric Benson

11. Rashard Mendenhall

12. Thomas Jones

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Just an early look....

 

1. Chris Johnson

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Michael Turner

4. Mo Drew

5. Ray Rice

6. Frank Gore

7. DeAngelo Williams

8. Steven Jackson

9. Rashard Mendenhall

10. Cedric Benson

11. Ryan Grant

12. Thomas Jones

 

Discuss...

 

I wouldn't put Michael Turner so high. The guy can obviously be a stud, and he's capable of putting up monster numbers against tough D's, but the inconsistency both years has to kill his owners. Furthermore, there's the whole curse of 370, and now that he's broken down this year, you wonder if he can handle the full load year in year out. I think the same thing can/will apply to Ced-Ben-I would be leery of him for next year just b/c he had some many games this year at 32+ carries.

 

I also think Ray Rice is very close to a tier-1 guy. He faced a relatively hard schedule, and he played well above it. He killed it against Pittsburgh and Minnesota when most backs have not been able to do anything all year against them. Factor in that TD-vulture MaGheghee has been getting phased out, and Rice should at worst match this year's production.

 

I would also look at how Cleveland's schedule shapes out next year. The line they've assembled is incredible. On Football Outsiders, they have it rated as a Top-5 Line. Mangenius should really be fired for giving us such a high dose of the only back (J. Lewis) on his roster that could not hit those holes that line provided consistently. I think whether it's Jerome Harrison, James Davis, or Chris Jennings, that backfield will produce.

 

Jamal Charles? What can you say about him? Tough schedule, no blockers, and the man just produced. I hope coaches like Haley and Mangini just allow these guys to play. They must see it in practice, the whole team must know who's hitting these holes; but these guys just refuse to give way to their antiquated notion of what an NFL tailback looks like. Even, if they didn't believe in Charles or Harrison; there is no reason whatsoever that they shouldn't have at least had a big share of the carries. To be toting out L. Johnson and J. Lewis for 3/4 of the season at 30 carries per is criminal to those fan bases.

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In PPR, Rice seems a bit low on some lists here.

 

My opinion on T Jones for this year is... let's just say well documented in this forum.

 

Jones for next year I am not quite so certain about. He is a much more iffy prospect for 2010. The Jets won't cut him, he'll get his 3 mil in March, but there are question marks. Can Greene stop fumbling and stay healthy? I suspect Leon Washington may get PUP'd for the first six games, IF he re-signs with the Jets.

 

I can see Jones having a very good first 8 games, and then slow down. I'm not sure he can hold a top 15 spot by year's end. I might draft him and trade him mid-season. Although for his age, his carries are low, he is still getting up there. The last two years he has a boatload of touches. Sooner or later...

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I wouldn't put Michael Turner so high. The guy can obviously be a stud, and he's capable of putting up monster numbers against tough D's, but the inconsistency both years has to kill his owners. Furthermore, there's the whole curse of 370, and now that he's broken down this year, you wonder if he can handle the full load year in year out. I think the same thing can/will apply to Ced-Ben-I would be leery of him for next year just b/c he had some many games this year at 32+ carries.

 

I also think Ray Rice is very close to a tier-1 guy. He faced a relatively hard schedule, and he played well above it. He killed it against Pittsburgh and Minnesota when most backs have not been able to do anything all year against them. Factor in that TD-vulture MaGheghee has been getting phased out, and Rice should at worst match this year's production.

 

I would also look at how Cleveland's schedule shapes out next year. The line they've assembled is incredible. On Football Outsiders, they have it rated as a Top-5 Line. Mangenius should really be fired for giving us such a high dose of the only back (J. Lewis) on his roster that could not hit those holes that line provided consistently. I think whether it's Jerome Harrison, James Davis, or Chris Jennings, that backfield will produce.

 

Jamal Charles? What can you say about him? Tough schedule, no blockers, and the man just produced. I hope coaches like Haley and Mangini just allow these guys to play. They must see it in practice, the whole team must know who's hitting these holes; but these guys just refuse to give way to their antiquated notion of what an NFL tailback looks like. Even, if they didn't believe in Charles or Harrison; there is no reason whatsoever that they shouldn't have at least had a big share of the carries. To be toting out L. Johnson and J. Lewis for 3/4 of the season at 30 carries per is criminal to those fan bases.

 

 

Turner had an ankle sprain. That's got nothing to do with how many carries he had in 2008 and i wouldn't say that is breaking down. He was averaging nearly a td a game before he was injured. I wouldn't rank him lower than 4 or 5.

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Turner had an ankle sprain. That's got nothing to do with how many carries he had in 2008 and i wouldn't say that is breaking down. He was averaging nearly a td a game before he was injured. I wouldn't rank him lower than 4 or 5.

 

From a rational-logical POV, I tend to agree; the 370 curse is overrated; I thinkAD had like 363 the previous year and looks as great as ever. However, seeing the evidence that for whatever reason, backs don't produce after such a heavy workload does make me reconsider (this year it was Turner and Forte). My biggest concern with Turner anyway, is his inconsistency, which is one reason I tend to shy away (from a personal preference I do that with the Randy Moss/Ochocinco types as well). Turner did start really slow this year (vs. a slightly easy schedule) but then did go on a monstrous tear in the middle of the season.

 

Besides from this fluctuation in production, I also have concern with how he was used by his staff (rushed back twice for no apparent reason) as well as that they have capable backups with Snelling and Norwood that may make the Atlanta staff consider more of a RBBC. There is no doubt that Turner will produce, when you're talking Top 5 though, I want to be absolutely sure with the cream of the crop. I think he is right there, but I would prefer rolling with CJ, AD, MJD, Rice, and then probably DeAngelo Williams or Steven Jackson, although from a preference standpoint I can see how people would value Turner around 4.

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From a rational-logical POV, I tend to agree; the 370 curse is overrated; I thinkAD had like 363 the previous year and looks as great as ever. However, seeing the evidence that for whatever reason, backs don't produce after such a heavy workload does make me reconsider (this year it was Turner and Forte). My biggest concern with Turner anyway, is his inconsistency, which is one reason I tend to shy away (from a personal preference I do that with the Randy Moss/Ochocinco types as well). Turner did start really slow this year (vs. a slightly easy schedule) but then did go on a monstrous tear in the middle of the season.

 

Besides from this fluctuation in production, I also have concern with how he was used by his staff (rushed back twice for no apparent reason) as well as that they have capable backups with Snelling and Norwood that may make the Atlanta staff consider more of a RBBC. There is no doubt that Turner will produce, when you're talking Top 5 though, I want to be absolutely sure with the cream of the crop. I think he is right there, but I would prefer rolling with CJ, AD, MJD, Rice, and then probably DeAngelo Williams or Steven Jackson, although from a preference standpoint I can see how people would value Turner around 4.

 

This doesn't look inconsistent to me at all.

 

1 09/13/09 MIA 22 65 0

2 09/20/09 CAR 28 105 1

3 09/27/09 @NE 15 56 1

4 BYE - - - - - -

5 10/11/09 @SF 22 97 3

6 10/18/09 CHI 13 30 1

7 10/25/09 @DAL 18 50 1

8 11/02/09 @NO 20 151 1

9 11/08/09 WAS 18 166 2

10 11/15/09 @CAR 9 111 0

 

 

In regards to RBBC, Snelling and Norwood couldn't carry Turner's jockstrap. That's why they got minimal if any carries while he was healthy.

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Don't have enough info to speculate.

 

Too many coaching changes ... too many free agency moves ... too many draft picks to make ...

 

...that said...

 

Guys who have a legitimate potential to be the #1 FF running back in 2010 (in no certain order):

Adrian Peterson

Chris Johnson

Ray Rice

DeAngelo Williams

Jonathan Stewart

Michael Turner

Steven Jackson

Ronnie Brown

Frank Gore

MJD

 

Other guys who have a legitimate chance to be a top 5 FF running back in 2010 (in no certain order):

Jamaal Charles

Ryan Grant

Fred Jackson

Michael Bush

Matt Forte

Steve Slaton

Cedric Benson

Rashard Mendenhall

Beanie Wells

Knowshon Moreno

Pierre Thomas

Cadillac Williams

Thomas Jones

Brian Westbrook

 

Other guys who'd be playing out of their gourd to be a top 10 FF RB in 2010 (in no certain order):

Darren McFadden

Jerome Harrison

LaDanian Tomlinson

Marion Barber

Reggie Bush

Ricky Williams

Laurance Moroney

Fred Taylor

Lesean McCoy

Brandon Jacobs

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This doesn't look inconsistent to me at all.

 

1 09/13/09 MIA 22 65 0

2 09/20/09 CAR 28 105 1

3 09/27/09 @NE 15 56 1

4 BYE - - - - - -

5 10/11/09 @SF 22 97 3

6 10/18/09 CHI 13 30 1

7 10/25/09 @DAL 18 50 1

8 11/02/09 @NO 20 151 1

9 11/08/09 WAS 18 166 2

10 11/15/09 @CAR 9 111 0

The four bolded games are what would concern me. Every RB has off games, but that's 4 subpar yardage games for Turner out of 9...not too good a percentage, and of those 4-games, only the Cowboys are in the top-10 in rushing yardage allowed (they are currently 5th, allowing 94.1 yards a game). His fantasy numbers stayed solid 3 of those 4 weeks because he scored TDs, but TDs are more unpredictable than yardage. When you consider the fact that Turner is a complete non-factor in the passing game, I don't think I'd put him in my top-5 next season, PPR or otherwise. Top-10, sure, just not top-5 IMO.

 

I also might consider dropping D'Angelo Williams out of the top-10. As good as he can be, Jonathan Stewart vultured a lot of carries and TDs from him this season, and based on his performances when Williams was out of the lineup, I would expect Stewart to get another uptick in carries next year compared to this year, making Williams even more of a boom or bust candidate from week to week.

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This doesn't look inconsistent to me at all.

 

1 09/13/09 MIA 22 65 0

2 09/20/09 CAR 28 105 1

3 09/27/09 @NE 15 56 1

4 BYE - - - - - -

5 10/11/09 @SF 22 97 3

6 10/18/09 CHI 13 30 1

7 10/25/09 @DAL 18 50 1

8 11/02/09 @NO 20 151 1

9 11/08/09 WAS 18 166 2

10 11/15/09 @CAR 9 111 0

 

 

In regards to RBBC, Snelling and Norwood couldn't carry Turner's jockstrap. That's why they got minimal if any carries while he was healthy.

 

Those early efforts where he he's under 70 yds don't concern you? Once you start to depend on a guy to get a TD for points you're getting into Marion Barber territory... I guess it's a matter of preference, but I saw those games, and he simply did not look good. Through the first 7 a lot of the Atlanta talk was "what's wrong with Michael Turner>" That being said, he's perfectly capable of then ripping several 140+ yd games in row, against quality D's even, so he'll be near the top of fantasy pts at the end of the year. Being how most leagues are H2H, though, like I previously said, it's just not how I like the stats for my elite guys to be spread through the season.

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The four bolded games are what would concern me. Every RB has off games, but that's 4 subpar yardage games for Turner out of 9...not too good a percentage, and of those 4-games, only the Cowboys are in the top-10 in rushing yardage allowed (they are currently 5th, allowing 94.1 yards a game). His fantasy numbers stayed solid 3 of those 4 weeks because he scored TDs, but TDs are more unpredictable than yardage. When you consider the fact that Turner is a complete non-factor in the passing game, I don't think I'd put him in my top-5 next season, PPR or otherwise. Top-10, sure, just not top-5 IMO.

 

I also might consider dropping D'Angelo Williams out of the top-10. As good as he can be, Jonathan Stewart vultured a lot of carries and TDs from him this season, and based on his performances when Williams was out of the lineup, I would expect Stewart to get another uptick in carries next year compared to this year, making Williams even more of a boom or bust candidate from week to week.

 

I have some concern with D'Angelo too, but like it has been pointed out, Carolina faced a brutal rushing schedule this year. Think about everything that went wrong with Carolina this year... injuries to tackles, the brutal schedule, Delhomme killing drives time after time, an early lack of commitment to the run from John Fox... and both D'Angelo and Stewart ended with 1000 yrds nonetheless!! I think this merits looking into the feel and the preseason reps by next year, but it isn't that inconceivable that both guys could be top 15 guys. If one guy ends up being traded away, I think the easier schedule, *hopefully better stability at QB, and continuity with the OL should project very favorably and would likely make the back remaining a Top 3 talent.

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I wouldn't put Michael Turner so high. The guy can obviously be a stud, and he's capable of putting up monster numbers against tough D's, but the inconsistency both years has to kill his owners. Furthermore, there's the whole curse of 370, and now that he's broken down this year, you wonder if he can handle the full load year in year out. I think the same thing can/will apply to Ced-Ben-I would be leery of him for next year just b/c he had some many games this year at 32+ carries.

 

I also think Ray Rice is very close to a tier-1 guy. He faced a relatively hard schedule, and he played well above it. He killed it against Pittsburgh and Minnesota when most backs have not been able to do anything all year against them. Factor in that TD-vulture MaGheghee has been getting phased out, and Rice should at worst match this year's production.

 

I would also look at how Cleveland's schedule shapes out next year. The line they've assembled is incredible. On Football Outsiders, they have it rated as a Top-5 Line. Mangenius should really be fired for giving us such a high dose of the only back (J. Lewis) on his roster that could not hit those holes that line provided consistently. I think whether it's Jerome Harrison, James Davis, or Chris Jennings, that backfield will produce.

 

Jamal Charles? What can you say about him? Tough schedule, no blockers, and the man just produced. I hope coaches like Haley and Mangini just allow these guys to play. They must see it in practice, the whole team must know who's hitting these holes; but these guys just refuse to give way to their antiquated notion of what an NFL tailback looks like. Even, if they didn't believe in Charles or Harrison; there is no reason whatsoever that they shouldn't have at least had a big share of the carries. To be toting out L. Johnson and J. Lewis for 3/4 of the season at 30 carries per is criminal to those fan bases.

 

All valid points. Turner's injury was costly this year. He did have 1699 yds and 17 TD with Atlanta in '08, his first year as a starter.

 

I considered Ray Rice in the 4 or even 3 spot. He's awesome. I dunno what is the deal with McGahee. The first three weeks he took all the TD's away, then did absolutely nothing for the next 10 weeks, and then the last three weeks, he's back to stealing TD's.

 

Interesting point on Cleveland. Somehow Mangini will probably screw it up though.

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Those early efforts where he he's under 70 yds don't concern you? Once you start to depend on a guy to get a TD for points you're getting into Marion Barber territory... I guess it's a matter of preference, but I saw those games, and he simply did not look good. Through the first 7 a lot of the Atlanta talk was "what's wrong with Michael Turner>" That being said, he's perfectly capable of then ripping several 140+ yd games in row, against quality D's even, so he'll be near the top of fantasy pts at the end of the year. Being how most leagues are H2H, though, like I previously said, it's just not how I like the stats for my elite guys to be spread through the season.

 

They don't concern me. AP had 5 games under 70 yards (albeit, 2 were 69); MJD had 6 games under 70 yards and 2 games with 75 yards and 0 tds (both over 15 games, of course). Unless you're chris johnson, you're gonna have a handful of games like that.

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Here is mine for PPR:

 

1. Chris Johnson

2. Maurice Jones Drew

3. Adrian Peterson

4. Ray Rice

5. Steven Jackson

6. Michael Turner

7. Frank Gore

8. DeAngelo Williams

9. Jamaal Charles

10. Cedric Benson

11. Rashard Mendenhall

12. Thomas Jones

 

the ranking is almost same as mine

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I think Ronnie should be in that list too. I suspect he will bouce back from the Lisfranc just fine as thats the way things have been going with this injury and Miami is a better team this year than last and I cannot see how they won't be a better team next year than this year.

Edited by Duchess Jack
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I think Ronnie should be in that list too. I suspect he will bouce back from the Lisfranc just fine as that they way things have been going with this injury and Miami is a better team this year than last and I cannot see how they won't be a better team next year than this year.

 

I believe this too. As impressive as J. Charles is, i don't know if he's a better choice then Ronnie Brown.

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I think Ronnie should be in that list too. I suspect he will bouce back from the Lisfranc just fine as thats the way things have been going with this injury and Miami is a better team this year than last and I cannot see how they won't be a better team next year than this year.

 

Problem is he always gets hurt.

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Problem is he always gets hurt.

an ACL and Lisfranc seem like freak things more than being injury prone. Miami is also putting together a team that can block for him and perhaps give something else for defenses to talk about (this second part is a work in progress) so hopefully he'll have even less a chance to get hurt

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an ACL and Lisfranc seem like freak things more than being injury prone. Miami is also putting together a team that can block for him and perhaps give something else for defenses to talk about (this second part is a work in progress) so hopefully he'll have even less a chance to get hurt

 

My concerns for keeping Ronnie out of the Top 10: 1)*injury prone-I agree that his injuries were unrelated and were more of the freaky variety, but if I guy hasn't been able to finish out a season you still have to keep this in mind, 2) role Ricky Williams will have next year: Ricky has to be one of the youngest 32's in NFL history and the way they rotate the backs keeps him fresh/even when Ronnie was putting up monstrous performances Ricky was still vulturing away TD's, 3)Chad Henne's development: it looks like Miami now knows they have a capable prototypical NFL passer and while the majority of Ronnie's value wasn't b/c he was throwing of the wildcat, he has on the field a large % of the time b/c they were in the wildcat formation and he salvaged at least one mediocre performance this year with a Wildcat passing TD.

 

All in all, (rehab dependent) I expect Ronnie to be valued about the same as this year (12-15) with a very realistic shot at getting a Top 10 back...

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top 12 RB early in a PPR.....

 

1. Chris Johnson

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Maurice Jones-Drew

4. Ray Rice

5. Frank Gore

6. Michael Turner

7. Steven Jackson

8. DeAngelo Williams

9. Cedric Benson

10. Pierre Thomas

11. Ronnie Brown

12. Rashard Mendenhall

 

honorable mentions - Jamaal Charles, Jonathan Stewart, Ricky Williams, Ryan Grant, Thomas Jones..

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