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***Official Round 2 Wagering Thread***


ABearWithFurniture
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I'm thinking that since sooooooo many people lost their asses last weekend, there probably won't be any wagering this weekend...but just in case some of you have a few dollars more:

 

Favorite............Line...O/U

At New Orleans. -7 ....57

At Indianapolis... -6.5 44

At Minnesota .... -3. ..45.5

At San Diego .... -7.5 42

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I didn't post anything here last weekend as I was too busy to spend much time around here at all, but I did go 3/3 on 6-point teasers last week (NYJ/Under, ARI/Over, and BAL/Over). Didn't necessarily think all three teams would win straight up, but I liked their chances of keeping their respective games close... Going into last weekend, I could see any of the four games going either way, really. Considering the points the dogs were getting, adding 6 in their favor was a no-brainer. Just a matter of picking the O/U's for each game, which is usually the hardest part, IMO. Got a bit lucky on the CIN/NYJ under... The Graham missed FG's saved me. Stayed away from the PHI/DAL game altogether, as the unpredictability of both teams scared me away. For this week, I may add something else later, but for now, I'm going to stick with the same theme, and go with a couple more teasers:

 

DAL +8.5 and Over 40

 

I'm a MIN fan, and as much as I want the Vikes to pull this off (I've been disappointed by this team one too many times, so I'm keeping my hopes up VERY conservatively), I see this game as a pick'em type of game. Dallas is the hotter of the two teams going into the post-season, and I'll be very surprised if Minnesota wins by more than a touchdown (far more surprised than I would be if Dallas did). On the other hand, I can't see the MN offense being held to less than about 17-20 points. Even if Dallas wins, I don't see how the total in this game isn't at least in the mid-high 40's. I don't typically bet on the Vikes unless I feel like it's a pretty safe bet, and I feel really good about this one. Plus, the "worst-case" scenario is the Vikes win by double-digits and I lose my bet. Or, I guess as a MN fan, worse than that would be Dallas winning the game, but the total being less than 40... I lose my bet and my team loses as well. I just don't see that happening. If Dallas wins, they're going to have to score some points.

 

BAL +12.5 and Under 50.5

 

If I had to pick, I guess I would say that the Colts win this game. But, like the DAL/MIN game, I look at this as a close game featuring a home favorite that has cooled ever so slightly, versus a road dog that is gaining momentum. Regardless of whether the Colts rested players or not, you never want to lose two games going into the playoffs. Add in the fact that Baltimore played them very close (lost 15-17) the first time they met this year, and I really like their chances of staying within 10 points this weekend as well. As for the Over/Under, I had to think about this one a little bit more than the game above. But, given the nature of the first matchup, I had to go with the Under... I like this to be another close battle dominated by FG's. As someone previously mentioned, it wouldn't surprise me if Stover plays a big role in how this game ends.

 

As for the other two games, I have to give them some more thought... I like the Chargers to win, but not sure if I like them to cover the -7 that I'm currently seeing. As for the NFC game, I am leaning towards ARI +7... just not sure if I would play that or pair it with the total in another teaser. :wacko:

 

Usually, it seems like when there is a playoff weekend full of surprises one week, the following week tends to be much more "predictable." The problem with that theory this year is that I'm not sure if this past weekend was the surprising one or the predictable one... Like I said, I felt that each game could have gone either way, so even though three underdogs won straight up, they weren't really big surprises to me.

 

Good luck, everyone. :D

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I'm adding a 3rd 6-point teaser:

 

ARI +13

SD -1

 

I'm not very confident trying to pick against the total in either of these games, so I think I'll stay away from them in that sense. I agree with ABWF in that I like Arizona's chances... this does not have the feel of a game in which either team should be favored by a TD. NOS -3.5 or -4 sounds about right to me, and even that might be too much, considering how well Arizona played last week, and how New Orleans ended their season. Plus, without looking back at the actual scores throughout the season, I feel like the Saints had far more close games than they did blowouts. Some may have been closer than the final score made them appear, and the only really impressive blowout I can recall is the Patriots game. So, I like the Cardinals to keep it close, and possibly win outright.

 

As for the NY/SD game, a touchdown seems about right, but the way the Jets play defense, I could see the final being less than a 7-point difference. I do think that, if the Jets fall behind by a TD or more, they will have trouble trying to stay in the game, given their run-heavy offensive scheme. It would not surprise me at all to see Sanchez turn the ball over a time or two if they fall behind... if that happens, things could get ugly quick. If not, and the Jets are able to stay in the game, I still like the Chargers to win, even if it ends up being somewhat low-scoring. I'll go out on a limb and actually make a prediction on this game (the only one of the four that I'm fairly confident in picking a winner):

 

SD 20

NYJ 14

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