***Official Round 2 Wagering Thread***

[kroyrunner89]

Cardinals +7 @ Saints 57

Ravens +6.5 @ Colts 44

Cowboys +2.5 @ Vikings 45.5

Jets +7.5 @ Chargers 42

 

Good luck guys!

[CowboysDiehard]

Last week I hit a four leg parlay on Saturday and Octo-plied (not a word, heh) my stake going into the weekend. Had the Pack scored on Sunday to win the game, my winnings would have been obscene. Nonetheless, I still came out of the weekend up 400%. It was total, dumb luck, I admit.

 

I have no feel whatsoever for the games this weekend, though. I'll probably hold off until Friday night or Saturday morning. My judgement on the Cowboys is obviously clouded. Also, after moving up here from TX, I've become something of a 'closet' fan of both the Cards and the Chargers. Mainly through watching them in my pre-Sunday Ticket days, and from the fact the the Chargers typically play nemesis to the hated Broncos. Yes...I like seeing the Broncs lose almost as much as I love seeing Dallas win. And, Vincent Jackson went to school here in Greeley, plus you have Norv and LT...nuff said.

 

If the Cowboys are no way involved, I like to see both of those teams win. (Disclaimer: I have never been given, bought, nor would display in my home or person a single shred of NFL gear from either the Chargers or Cards! )

 

This time, I would love to see the Cards beat the Saints on Saturday, because it would mean a home game for Dallas if they can win. Plus, the J-E-T-S are coached by Buddy Ryan's son. No self-respecting Cowboy fan should ever root for any member of the Ryan family at any time (and yes, I enjoyed watching Buddy's demise in Arizona several years ago).

 

All that said, I'm just going to sit here and have another cup of joe for now. I may not wager at all this weekend, got enough interest on the table as it is.

 

[Gopher]

Looks like we have two threads this week... Here were my thoughts posted in the other thread last night:

 

I didn't post anything here last weekend as I was too busy to spend much time around here at all, but I did go 3/3 on 6-point teasers last week (NYJ/Under, ARI/Over, and BAL/Over). Didn't necessarily think all three teams would win straight up, but I liked their chances of keeping their respective games close... Going into last weekend, I could see any of the four games going either way, really. Considering the points the dogs were getting, adding 6 in their favor was a no-brainer. Just a matter of picking the O/U's for each game, which is usually the hardest part, IMO. Got a bit lucky on the CIN/NYJ under... The Graham missed FG's saved me. Stayed away from the PHI/DAL game altogether, as the unpredictability of both teams scared me away. For this week, I may add something else later, but for now, I'm going to stick with the same theme, and go with a couple more teasers:

 

DAL +8.5 and Over 40

 

I'm a MIN fan, and as much as I want the Vikes to pull this off (I've been disappointed by this team one too many times, so I'm keeping my hopes up VERY conservatively), I see this game as a pick'em type of game. Dallas is the hotter of the two teams going into the post-season, and I'll be very surprised if Minnesota wins by more than a touchdown (far more surprised than I would be if Dallas did). On the other hand, I can't see the MN offense being held to less than about 17-20 points. Even if Dallas wins, I don't see how the total in this game isn't at least in the mid-high 40's. I don't typically bet on the Vikes unless I feel like it's a pretty safe bet, and I feel really good about this one. Plus, the "worst-case" scenario is the Vikes win by double-digits and I lose my bet. Or, I guess as a MN fan, worse than that would be Dallas winning the game, but the total being less than 40... I lose my bet and my team loses as well. I just don't see that happening. If Dallas wins, they're going to have to score some points.

 

BAL +12.5 and Under 50.5

 

If I had to pick, I guess I would say that the Colts win this game. But, like the DAL/MIN game, I look at this as a close game featuring a home favorite that has cooled ever so slightly, versus a road dog that is gaining momentum. Regardless of whether the Colts rested players or not, you never want to lose two games going into the playoffs. Add in the fact that Baltimore played them very close (lost 15-17) the first time they met this year, and I really like their chances of staying within 10 points this weekend as well. As for the Over/Under, I had to think about this one a little bit more than the game above. But, given the nature of the first matchup, I had to go with the Under... I like this to be another close battle dominated by FG's. As someone previously mentioned, it wouldn't surprise me if Stover plays a big role in how this game ends.

 

As for the other two games, I have to give them some more thought... I like the Chargers to win, but not sure if I like them to cover the -7 that I'm currently seeing. As for the NFC game, I am leaning towards ARI +7... just not sure if I would play that or pair it with the total in another teaser.

 

Usually, it seems like when there is a playoff weekend full of surprises one week, the following week tends to be much more "predictable." The problem with that theory this year is that I'm not sure if this past weekend was the surprising one or the predictable one... Like I said, I felt that each game could have gone either way, so even though three underdogs won straight up, they weren't really big surprises to me.

 

Good luck, everyone.

[Cowboyz1]

Cardinals +7 @ Saints 57

Ravens +6.5 @ Colts 44

Cowboys +2.5 @ Vikings 45.5

Jets +7.5 @ Chargers 42

 

Good luck guys!

 

 

Cardnals are red hot on offense but after giving up 45 to a pass happy O, then having to go into N.O. with yet another prolific O in Bress and co., I don't see the Cards winning this one. N.O. is rested and has played much better D then Arz. I would roll with the Saints and be confident in the cover and the over.

 

Ravens just got a soft N.E. team in meltdown. Reed back helps the D but this game comes down to the QB and Flacco is no Manning. He will have to pass in this game despite what they did running against N.E. That won't happen against the Colts at home. Colts should cover and score 27 points by themselves. I give the Ravens around 17 so the over sounds about right with a late field goal deciding the o/u.

 

Cowboys are playing the best football of all the teams right now and I don't see that changing. The Vikings have stumbled late and Farve will have heavy heat. We match up well in coverage also so Farve will have to be very on while under pressure. AP is the key but it seems the team has leaned on Farve more then AP this year. Our front is stout on both sides of the ball and I just don't see the Vikings winning this one. I am going with Dallas to cover by 7 and move on to the Championship game.

 

Chargers are just too much for the Jets. They had a good run but Sanchez is not going to be able to make the few big plays that he didn't against Cincy and lean on the D to win this one. He will have to string drives together and they just don't have the talent at WR to beat the secondary of San Diego consistantly. San Diego wins by double digits.I like 24 to 10 so the under is my call here. The Jets will have a hard time scoring points.

[CowboysDiehard]

This guy's record last week matched his for the season. Not good. Figured I'd post it though, as he agrees with Ratteree on three out of four.

 

Pay Homage to Gamblor - Divisional Playoffs

 

From the article: "...but if the Ravens beat the Colts by only completing four passes I'll buy everyone who reads this blog a car. "

 

FIgured I'd post that just in case....if it happens, call it the CowboysDiehard Stimulus Package!

Edited January 15, 2010 by CowboysDiehard

[rattsass]

This guy's record last week matched his for the season. Not good. Figured I'd post it though, as he agrees with Ratteree on three out of four.

 

Pay Homage to Gamblor - Divisional Playoffs

 

From the article: "...but if the Ravens beat the Colts by only completing four passes I'll buy everyone who reads this blog a car. "

 

FIgured I'd post that just in case....if it happens, call it the CowboysDiehard Stimulus Package!

Gamblor? If you can't spell it, you probably aren't good at it.

 

Cowboyz - How good was the Saints defense when they blew a 17 point lead at home to the Buccaneers? And what's more, what the hell is up with scoring only 17 at home against the Buccaneers to begin with? I implore you. Keep your money in your pocket.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

best bet of the year

 

Vikings - 2.5

 

I'm not going to give all the stats that you can read or have already read all over the web just going to put it simple.

The Vikes who are undefeated at home this year only need to win by a FG

Place your bets and collect your money.

[rattsass]

Moneyline parlay with the Cards and the Ravens pays 10-1. I have to tell you, I think there is a WAY better than 10-1 chance of that happening.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

The Vikes who are undefeated at home this year only need to win by a FG

Place your bets and collect your money.

New England was unbeaten at home in the regular season too.

Edited January 16, 2010 by HowboutthemCowboys

[kroyrunner89]

Well, after a disappointing first weekend, I'm looking to bounce back with some solid plays this round. Nobody could have seen the Bengals' poor defensive play coming, however that Under I released was just awful. It's rare I feel embarrassed by a play, but that was one of those cases. So, I'm going to do what I can to right the ship this week and get us another profitable week and back up to that 67% mark. Here's what I like this round:

 

* Saints -7

 

I know a popular public play this week is Arizona +7, however I was keyed in on this play before I even knew the public percentages. Let's start by breaking down Arizona. For starters, I'm not going to read much into the offensive show they put on last week against the Packers, as the Green Bay defense was completely asleep. They were getting absolutely no pressure on Warner, and their receivers were constantly wide open. As well as Warner may have played, most quarterbacks in the NFL can succeed when they're throwing to wide open receivers. The Saints should have 10 out of 11 of their defensive starters healthy and ready to go in this one, the first time this can be said in many weeks. People read a lot into the regression of the Saints' defense since the Patriots game, but each week they've been holding out anywhere from 2-4 defensive starters due to injuries. They haven't been able to generate the same pressure on opposing QBs since then, and with the unit healthy again I expect them to get back to their strengths. Warner has shown that he's prone to turning the ball over when pressured, and with Boldin likely out, although it didn't impact the offense last week I expect it will a bit more in this one.

 

Defensively, the Cardinals have played one of the easiest schedules in the league as far as opposing pass offenses go. In games against top notch passing units, the Cardinals have been shredded this year, and against this spectacular Saints offense I don't expect this to change. Although the offense slowed a bit in recent weeks, the return of Jeremy Shockey should help them get back on track as he really does a lot for them out there, when not catching the ball then helping offer protection for Brees. I'm convinced that the Cardinals come back down to earth this week, and the Saints offense does their thing and puts 31+ points on the board. We should have an easy double digit win for the Saints, along the lines of 38-20.

 

* Ravens/Colts OVER 44

 

The first time these teams met, there were a ton of points left on the field. My comments last week about the Ravens struggling against strong passing teams hasn't changed, last week I chalk the Patriots' struggles up to an injured Randy Moss and Wes Welker not playing. Brady didn't look great either, and played one of the worst games of his playoff career. Manning won't make the same mistakes as the Patriots did, and will be able to throw all over this questionable Baltimore secondary. Also, in the first meeting, the Colts only scored 17 points, despite throwing for over 9 yards per pass attempt. They suffered from three turnovers, and in this matchup I think that they'll take better care of the ball and put points on the board fairly easily. On the Ravens' side of the ball, although they're likely going to try to move the ball on the ground, I expect the Colts to force them into winning through the air. Baltimore had to settle for five field goals against the Colts in their first meeting, and this time around should find ways to get the ball into the endzone more frequently. I'm not sure who covers in this game, but either way I think we see a decent number of points on the board by each team, pushing this total over by about a touchdown.

 

For now, that's it. At the moment I don't have any strong reads on the Sunday games. I'll keep looking at the games into tomorrow night, but it's very possible I just keep it to these two plays this week. Good luck this weekend everyone!

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Moneyline parlay with the Cards and the Ravens pays 10-1. I have to tell you, I think there is a WAY better than 10-1 chance of that happening.

 

 

wow where you seeing those odd ???

 

the best I can find is 2-1/2 to 1

 

Baltimore Ravens +6 ½ -115 +210

 

Arizona Cardinals +7 -110 +245

 

http://www.betjm.com/viewlines.aspx?SP=Foo...001&S=10000

 

Edit to add ,,, I miss read ,, you were saying a 2-team money line parley and yes that is 9-1/2 to 1

Edited January 16, 2010 by MustOfBeenDrunk

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

New England was unbeaten at home in the regular season too.

 

 

your right and to be honest I was just trying to stir it up a little

 

you know

 

have to say a little surprised it didn't cause a little more bashing.

should be a good game and yes i do have my $$$ on the Vikes

[Do Work Son]

Well, after a disappointing first weekend, I'm looking to bounce back with some solid plays this round. Nobody could have seen the Bengals' poor defensive play coming, however that Under I released was just awful. It's rare I feel embarrassed by a play, but that was one of those cases. So, I'm going to do what I can to right the ship this week and get us another profitable week and back up to that 67% mark. Here's what I like this round:

 

* Saints -7

 

I know a popular public play this week is Arizona +7, however I was keyed in on this play before I even knew the public percentages. Let's start by breaking down Arizona. For starters, I'm not going to read much into the offensive show they put on last week against the Packers, as the Green Bay defense was completely asleep. They were getting absolutely no pressure on Warner, and their receivers were constantly wide open. As well as Warner may have played, most quarterbacks in the NFL can succeed when they're throwing to wide open receivers. The Saints should have 10 out of 11 of their defensive starters healthy and ready to go in this one, the first time this can be said in many weeks. People read a lot into the regression of the Saints' defense since the Patriots game, but each week they've been holding out anywhere from 2-4 defensive starters due to injuries. They haven't been able to generate the same pressure on opposing QBs since then, and with the unit healthy again I expect them to get back to their strengths. Warner has shown that he's prone to turning the ball over when pressured, and with Boldin likely out, although it didn't impact the offense last week I expect it will a bit more in this one.

 

Defensively, the Cardinals have played one of the easiest schedules in the league as far as opposing pass offenses go. In games against top notch passing units, the Cardinals have been shredded this year, and against this spectacular Saints offense I don't expect this to change. Although the offense slowed a bit in recent weeks, the return of Jeremy Shockey should help them get back on track as he really does a lot for them out there, when not catching the ball then helping offer protection for Brees. I'm convinced that the Cardinals come back down to earth this week, and the Saints offense does their thing and puts 31+ points on the board. We should have an easy double digit win for the Saints, along the lines of 38-20.

 

* Ravens/Colts OVER 44

 

The first time these teams met, there were a ton of points left on the field. My comments last week about the Ravens struggling against strong passing teams hasn't changed, last week I chalk the Patriots' struggles up to an injured Randy Moss and Wes Welker not playing. Brady didn't look great either, and played one of the worst games of his playoff career. Manning won't make the same mistakes as the Patriots did, and will be able to throw all over this questionable Baltimore secondary. Also, in the first meeting, the Colts only scored 17 points, despite throwing for over 9 yards per pass attempt. They suffered from three turnovers, and in this matchup I think that they'll take better care of the ball and put points on the board fairly easily. On the Ravens' side of the ball, although they're likely going to try to move the ball on the ground, I expect the Colts to force them into winning through the air. Baltimore had to settle for five field goals against the Colts in their first meeting, and this time around should find ways to get the ball into the endzone more frequently. I'm not sure who covers in this game, but either way I think we see a decent number of points on the board by each team, pushing this total over by about a touchdown.

 

For now, that's it. At the moment I don't have any strong reads on the Sunday games. I'll keep looking at the games into tomorrow night, but it's very possible I just keep it to these two plays this week. Good luck this weekend everyone!

 

Ravens/Colts OVER 44... I agree with you on this koy.....

 

Cowboys/Vikes UNDER 46....Both teams can run which will help run down the clock...Plus I think both defenses are gonna step up and keep this game under....

 

Saints/Cards OVER 57 1/2...I know you said the Saints are getting healthy on the defensive side but I cant see this game not going over......Saints are the #1 ranked passing offense in the league @ home and the Cards are #8 in the league @ passing on the road.....I expect nothing less then a shootout...Im thinking maybe a 38-28 type of game....

[Do Work Son]

Ravens/Colts OVER 44... I agree with you on this koy.....

 

Cowboys/Vikes UNDER 46....Both teams can run which will help run down the clock...Plus I think both defenses are gonna step up and keep this game under....

 

Saints/Cards OVER 57 1/2...I know you said the Saints are getting healthy on the defensive side but I cant see this game not going over......Saints are the #1 ranked passing offense in the league @ home and the Cards are #8 in the league @ passing on the road.....I expect nothing less then a shootout...Im thinking maybe a 38-28 type of game....

 

Added Saints -7 also

[MonkeyOne]

I'm betting on the Cowboys to win straight up.

[kroyrunner89]

1-1 to start the weekend, I'm not happy with how I've been picking lately. I've been solid all year ATS, but my last 8 totals plays are just 2-6, that's really dragging me down. I'm going to have to be sure I REALLY like a total from now on before releasing it. Anyways for tomorrow, I thought a bit about this one, but after some deliberation I've decided it's a solid play:

 

* Cowboys +2.5

 

Dallas has been a very underrated team all season, as they're one of just two teams to be top 8 in both yards/pass attempt and yards/rush attempt (Saints are the other team). On offense, I like how their pass offense matches up with the Vikings' passing defense. Although the Vikings have had a solid pass rush so far this year, they still find themselves ranked 19th in yards per pass attempt allowed. Not only that, but the defense has played the easiest passing schedule in the NFL, which speaks volumes given the fact that they're still a below average unit against the pass. Facing the run, it is no secret that Dallas has one of the most explosive rushing attacks in the NFL. Although the Minnesota defense could do a decent job of limiting the damage Dallas does on the ground, the Cowboys should be able to muster enough offense on the ground to keep Minnesota honest and from focusing in on their issues in the secondary.

 

On defense, the Cowboys have shown quite a bit lately as they've shut down top notch units such as the Eagles and Saints. Minnesota has lost their identity as a running team as Peterson has struggled since early in the season, and the Vikings find themselves ranked 23rd in yards/rush attempt. Dallas has the 8th best rushing defense in the NFL, and should be able to keep AP and Taylor bottled up for most of the game. If Minnesota is to win this game, they'll have to do it through the air. Favre and the Vikings enter the game 9th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt. This is not as spectacular as it appears however, as the Vikings have played the 9th easiest passing schedule in the NFL. The Dallas front 4 has been getting tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and we all know that Favre is a quarterback who can be pressured into mistakes. Having played the 7th toughest schedule against the pass in the NFL, Dallas is still an above average passing defense, and generates the 7th most sacks per game in the NFL. I expect them to have Favre frequently under pressure, and for some turnovers to put Dallas in command in this one. These are two teams headed in opposite directions, and when all is said and done we should see Dallas coming away with an outright win.