Square Posted February 2, 2010 Share Posted February 2, 2010 I didn't see any threads on the topic. Not sure what happened to Kroyrunner and Steeletown Dre is busy running Sharp Football SO we might as well start the discussion. Who does everybody like? Bodog had the colts favored by 6 yesterday and I haven't really looked at any of the prop bets. Any ideas? Sounds like Freeney is going to be playing hurt at best. That may be a major factor in slowing down Brees. The over under was around 56 if I remember correctly. I kind of like both teams this year so I think I have to put a bet down so that I have a team to cheer for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABearWithFurniture Posted February 2, 2010 Share Posted February 2, 2010 Not sure what happened to Kroyrunner... Judging by some of his last posts about betting the playoffs I'd have to think he's spending most of his time these days in bankruptcy court... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted February 2, 2010 Share Posted February 2, 2010 (edited) Drunk made a thread of betting lines Edited February 2, 2010 by Big John Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted February 2, 2010 Share Posted February 2, 2010 Judging by some of his last posts about betting the playoffs I'd have to think he's spending most of his time these days in bankruptcy court... just wondering,why over the last month or so do you seem to get enjoyment out of others losing a bet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted February 3, 2010 Share Posted February 3, 2010 (edited) just wondering,why over the last month or so do you seem to get enjoyment out of others losing a bet? Maybe not enjoyment, but enjoying pointing it out. Look, most people who bet lose. That is the way it is set up. We have run a wagering thread and all contributed our thoughts with the best intentions of helping each other (at least I think that is what we are doing) so past-tense prodding over personal loss I agree is in bad taste. I am straight up even predicting games in these playoffs and still managed to lose money like a dumb-ass. That is called the vig. And it is what eats every gambler. Well, that and greed. Like betting parlays. No vig with the parlay. They don't need one. In any case, this looks like a horrible game to bet in my opinion. Popular opinion has people laying the 6 with the Colts. My opinion is that I got my ass kicked betting against the Saints, then I got my ass kicked betting on the Saints. They are responsible for my financial loss in the playoffs to this point and I'm not wild about playing this game either way. Logic tells me that the Saints will be able to go blow to blow offensively with the Colts, so my inclination is to take the Saints plus the points and the over. But I have a real hard tIme doing that because deep down I know the Colts aren't going to gack this one away, and I hate to bet on teams that I don't think will win no matter how many points I am getting. Bottom line is that the trend for SB games has been of the closer scoring variety, rather than the "blow-out" variety that was popular for so many years. Yeah, either team could come out and crap themselves, but does either really have the hammer to put it away at any point? The Vikings sure didn't. And they outplayed the Saints. Tough game to bet in my opinion. At the risk of being called out by "BEARS" I'll tell you the safest bet in my opinion is the sissy bet- teaser Saints and over. Or teaser Colts and over. Or both. Edited February 3, 2010 by rattsass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted February 3, 2010 Author Share Posted February 3, 2010 Maybe not enjoyment, but enjoying pointing it out. Look, most people who bet lose. That is the way it is set up. We have run a wagering thread and all contributed our thoughts with the best intentions of helping each other (at least I think that is what we are doing) so past-tense prodding over personal loss I agree is in bad taste. I am straight up even predicting games in these playoffs and still managed to lose money like a dumb-ass. That is called the vig. And it is what eats every gambler. Well, that and greed. Like betting parlays. No vig with the parlay. They don't need one. In any case, this looks like a horrible game to bet in my opinion. Popular opinion has people laying the 6 with the Colts. My opinion is that I got my ass kicked betting against the Saints, then I got my ass kicked betting on the Saints. They are responsible for my financial loss in the playoffs to this point and I'm not wild about playing this game either way. Logic tells me that the Saints will be able to go blow to blow offensively with the Colts, so my inclination is to take the Saints plus the points and the over. But I have a real hard tIme doing that because deep down I know the Colts aren't going to gack this one away, and I hate to bet on teams that I don't think will win no matter how many points I am getting. Bottom line is that the trend for SB games has been of the closer scoring variety, rather than the "blow-out" variety that was popular for so many years. Yeah, either team could come out and crap themselves, but does either really have the hammer to put it away at any point? The Vikings sure didn't. And they outplayed the Saints. Tough game to bet in my opinion. At the risk of being called out by "BEARS" I'll tell you the safest bet in my opinion is the sissy bet- teaser Saints and over. Or teaser Colts and over. Or both. Well I appreciate hearing your take. I'm struggling because I like both teams. I don't gamble very often and it definitely doesn't seem obvious to me on which way to go. My gut right now says the Colts and the over. If they can score 30 against the Jets D, why couldn't Peyton work similar magic against the Saints. The saints have a powerful offense but they aren't the kind of team that typically puts together several slow time consuming drives. Then my second thought is that maybe the over is the sucker bet with two high powered offensive teams. It just seems too obvious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted February 3, 2010 Share Posted February 3, 2010 my second thought is that maybe the over is the sucker bet with two high powered offensive teams. It just seems too obvious. Bingo. The betting public loves betting the over, and pretty much everyone is rooting for a high-scoring game, jsut so it will be fun to watch. Vegas knows this, and is licking their chops. Go the other way. This games stays way under. Tease either team to the spread, since I think it will indeed be a close game...but go under the total. Colts 24, Saints 20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted February 3, 2010 Share Posted February 3, 2010 Bingo. The betting public loves betting the over, and pretty much everyone is rooting for a high-scoring game, jsut so it will be fun to watch. Vegas knows this, and is licking their chops. Go the other way. This games stays way under. Tease either team to the spread, since I think it will indeed be a close game...but go under the total. Colts 24, Saints 20 Most Superbowls (since the blowout era) have been lower scoring so the safest play may be going teaser under which gives you 62.5 points to work with. Under over is tricky on this one. We know these teams are easily capable. But it just never seems to work out like that. Of course I pinned my hopes on a 65-0 betting trend with the Saints v.Vikings, so jus assuming that Vegas is setting a trap with the U/O might be foolhardy. How about this - let's all concede that Vegas has this one nailed and go Colts/over Saints/Under teasers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABearWithFurniture Posted February 3, 2010 Share Posted February 3, 2010 just wondering,why over the last month or so do you seem to get enjoyment out of others losing a bet? No enjoyment at all...just watching/commenting on people tossing their money away in harrowing economic times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted February 3, 2010 Share Posted February 3, 2010 No enjoyment at all...just watching/commenting on people tossing their money away in harrowing economic times. same comment can be made by outsiders who don't play fantasy football (assuming you aren't in a free league) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexgaddis Posted February 3, 2010 Share Posted February 3, 2010 Colts and the under... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheikYerbuti Posted February 3, 2010 Share Posted February 3, 2010 Colts and the under... So funny, I just teased it to Saints +11 and OVER 50.5. We'll see. . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted February 3, 2010 Share Posted February 3, 2010 No enjoyment at all...just watching/commenting on people tossing their money away in harrowing economic times. same comment can be made by outsiders who don't play fantasy football (assuming you aren't in a free league) the drunk nailed it. I bust ass for my money, I'll spend it where I want thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kroyrunner89 Posted February 3, 2010 Share Posted February 3, 2010 Judging by some of his last posts about betting the playoffs I'd have to think he's spending most of his time these days in bankruptcy court... Seriously? A 4-5 stretch puts me in bankruptcy court? Hahaha I know how to manage my money thank god, and considering I'm still 54-30 on the season I've got a pretty nice profit in my pocket! Anyways, I like Saints +4.5 in this one, I think they have an outstanding shot at winning outright Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddahj Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 Since I'm probably going to take the Saints +4.5...I'd suggest that everyone take the Colts. I've been very consistent this year in picking the wrong teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 Guys - sorry I'm not around this season. Been very busy lately. I was emailed a link to this thread. Unfortunately there doesn't appear any way for me to attach a pdf file to this post. If there is, let me know. I am more than glad to provide my side selection writeup on the game to any huddler. Other items on my card are 5 props, looking to add a few more. Maybe a total, maybe a teaser. But I have a pretty detailed writeup on my side selection that I released on Monday morning, before all the news on Freeney and such became so public and dropped the number in some spots by a full point. So as it is, email me and I'll respond w/ the PDF. Just write in the subject that you are from the huddle and your huddle name. And I'll reply w/ the pdf. Might not get to it right away because I am so busy but I'll get it to you. Good luck guys and hope you end the season on a high note. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big F'n Dave Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 I've got the Saints -5 1/2 and Under 55 1/2. Saints 28 Colts 20. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocknrobn26 Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 I got 17-1 $20 on Indy last May. Hope to go 2 in a row, as last year I had Pitt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 I've got the Saints -5 1/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big F'n Dave Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 Oops. +5 1/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slugs3511 Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 The last two Superbowls, the dogs have covered.... 2007: Colts -7.5 and the over.... 2008: Giants +11and the under 2009: Cardinals....+7.5 and the over 2010: Colts -5.5 and the under..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted February 4, 2010 Author Share Posted February 4, 2010 (edited) After reading Dre's breakdown, if I'm betting at all... It'll probably be the Saints. Interesting stuff. Edit: I can get an image linked but it looks like crap so it's hard to read. Not really sure how else to add his .pdf to the thread Edited February 4, 2010 by Square Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kroyrunner89 Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 * New Orleans Saints +5 I'm sure some of you aren't too surprised to see me on the Saints in this one as I've been a believer in them all season. However, I can assure you that any bias I may have towards them has been removed and I've done what I feel to be a thorough analysis on this one. I'm jumping on this line now because with it looking less and less likely that Freeney will play (or be anywhere near his normal self if he does), this line has started to drop. Regardless of how healthy he is though, the Saints would be a play for me in this spot. When I look at stats to try and analyze a game, I do my best to remove games where one team or the other was at a disadvantage due to injuries or resting players. Obviously, the Saints' defense spent most of their games after playing the Patriots banged up on defense (and offense a bit with Shockey/Bush missing time), and the Colts had to have a couple games removed due to resting players and one game against a banged up team. So, I'm sure a lot of you are combing stats too looking for an edge, know that this is why my numbers might be different than some that you are seeing. Let's start by looking at each team's passing matchups. These are two of the elite passing units in the NFL, with the Saints passing for 8.23 yards/attempt, and the Colts throwing for 7.57 yards/attempt (1st and 3rd in the NFL). Both teams played very similar quality of passing defenses, and each team's pass defense is among the elite in the NFL, the Saints allowing 5.71 yds/attempt and the Colts allowing 5.79 yds/attempt (6th and 8th in the NFL). Assuming Freeney can't go, this is obviously a knock to the Colts' defense, and should give the Saints an advantage of being able to send an extra receiver out if they don't have to double him. Also with Freeney out, it seems to me like the Saints will be able to generate more pressure on Manning then the Colts will be able to generate on Brees. Of course, as we've seen in previous weeks pressure can lead to bad decisions and turnovers. Although both of the QBs are among the best at taking care of the ball, the edge goes to the Saints here as well. Manning has averaged just over 1 interception per game, while Brees has averaged .7 interceptions per game. When you look at the defenses and their ability to generate turnovers as well, the Colts average 1.2 interceptions/game while the Saints average 1.92. Although past performance doesn't necessarily indicate future results, it can indicate which results are more probable to occur. The rushing games of each team don't have any huge edge for one side or the other, but I have to think that the Saints have a slight advantage in this category too. The Saints have run for 4.66 yards/rush attempt this season, while the Colts have struggled mightily running for just 3.65 yards/rush attempt (6th and 30th in the NFL). The Colts' rushing attack offers the most intriguing matchup here, as the Saints have struggled against the run all year. The Saints' defense has allowed 4.64 yards/rush attempt, 29th worst in the NFL. Given the mediocrity of the two units facing each other here, I'm thinking that there really isn't much of an edge for either side. The Colts' run defense has been above average this year, allowing 4.06 yards/rush attempt, 11th best in the NFL. I think that we've got a better chance of the Saints being able to assert themselves on the ground than the Colts, which should give them the advantage of having to be less one dimensional. Although there is some concern about the lack of Superbowl experience on the Saints' squad, this is a team with strong veteran leadership that I believe can overcome it. Besides, in a game where Manning will likely have to rely on young receivers such as Garcon and Collie, I don't see how you couldn't argue that they'll be impacted as well. I think this will be a great Superbowl, as neither team could be considered dead if they fall a couple scores back. I expect an exciting finish, and in my mind the worst case scenario for the Saints is a 4 point loss. Given that in my worst case scenario they still cover, I'm confident that this is the right play as is my system. Good luck to everyone with this final wager of the season, I look forward to starting all over again next year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 Geez, I hate going against both Loy and Dre, but my pick here is the Colts. They have rolled this year ATS, and continue to do so in the playoffs (2-0 thus far). The Saints are this year's feel good story, and I'd love to see them bring home a championship for the city...but my betting mind says Indy. The Saints kind of stumbled heading into the playoffs, then put up a huge number on the Cardinals (the worst playoff defense in the HISTORY of football), giving many people the incorrect feeling that they were "back". They then were very fortunate to walk away with a home win against a Viking team that turned the ball over SIX times...though they did not cover. The Colts will grind the Saints like they have not seen all season, Manning is smarter than Favre and will protect the ball much mich better. Without the advantage of several short fields, the Saints will struggle to put up more than 24 points. And in this kind of game, it won't be enough. Colts 30, Saints 20. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 Geez, I hate going against both Loy and Dre, but my pick here is the Colts. me too. and me too. Good luck guys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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