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SB squares question


rcswildcat
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Sorry if this is the wrong forum for this, but me and a buddy (both with math backgrounds) are arguing a point. We split 12 squares on a board of 100 and are trying to figure odds to win 1 time out of 4, beer is not helping. anyway what are the odds if you had 1 square?

 

my argument

1/100 + 1/100 + 1/100 + 1/100= 4/100 = 4% chance to win 1 time out of 4 chances with 1 square

 

his argument

1/100. end of story. he claims each time is independent, which i agree, but there are 4 independent chances.

 

anyway, to translate in our terms, im saying we have a 48% chance to win 1 time(seems high) and he says 12%.

 

where better to bring in to then the huddle???

 

Thanks in advance guys and have a safe and fun superbowl!! :wacko: Go SAINTS!

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Hmm by your reasoning ,, if you guys had 50 squares you would have 50% chance x 4 = 200% chance of winning :wacko:

 

IThe 200 % means you should win twice. this is the same argument he brought up. so, if i am incorrect, what are the odds? i know they have to better than 12/100 because you have 4 different times to win. man, my head hurts

Edited by rcswildcat
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haha i can imagine this arguement

 

yall have 12 squares = 12/100 = 12%

 

4 qtrs of payouts = 12% chance 4 times

 

from here i dont know where to go..

 

not knowing yours #'s but yall got 12 of them?? i'd go with 12x4=48 , then 100-48= 52% chance of winning :wacko:

 

yall gotta have good #'s :D

 

 

not drawn yet, we gotta go to the bar and get them. we usually get alot of 9s and 5s. so realistically we have about a -75% chance!!

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i think it's something close to this:

 

.88 chance of not winning 1st quarter, and then each subsequent quarter.

 

since 4 quarter, then .88*.88*.88*.88 = .60 chance of not winning any of the quarters. So 1-.60 =.40 chance of winning 1 quarter.

 

 

Now if we do this if bought 50 squares it would be

 

.50*.50*.50*.50 = .06 chance of not winning. .94 chance of winning.

 

I may be missing on some details like chances of winning more than once for example, but i think that's on the right track.

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I may be missing on some details like chances of winning more than once for example, but i think that's on the right track.
These are the odds of winning prior to the numbers being drawn (or known). Once you know that you once again got stuck with the worst combination of numbers, Murphy's Law of Probability will greatly reduce your odds.
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