rcswildcat Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 Sorry if this is the wrong forum for this, but me and a buddy (both with math backgrounds) are arguing a point. We split 12 squares on a board of 100 and are trying to figure odds to win 1 time out of 4, beer is not helping. anyway what are the odds if you had 1 square? my argument 1/100 + 1/100 + 1/100 + 1/100= 4/100 = 4% chance to win 1 time out of 4 chances with 1 square his argument 1/100. end of story. he claims each time is independent, which i agree, but there are 4 independent chances. anyway, to translate in our terms, im saying we have a 48% chance to win 1 time(seems high) and he says 12%. where better to bring in to then the huddle??? Thanks in advance guys and have a safe and fun superbowl!! Go SAINTS! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 (edited) Hmm by your reasoning ,, if you guys had 50 squares you would have 50% chance x 4 = 200% chance of winning Edited February 7, 2010 by MustOfBeenDrunk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 you would have a 200% chance of winning because you, in theory, should win 2 times out of 4 chances and 2 out of 4 = 50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 rcswildcat ,, why did you delete your post ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcswildcat Posted February 7, 2010 Author Share Posted February 7, 2010 (edited) Hmm by your reasoning ,, if you guys had 50 squares you would have 50% chance x 4 = 200% chance of winning IThe 200 % means you should win twice. this is the same argument he brought up. so, if i am incorrect, what are the odds? i know they have to better than 12/100 because you have 4 different times to win. man, my head hurts Edited February 7, 2010 by rcswildcat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcswildcat Posted February 7, 2010 Author Share Posted February 7, 2010 rcswildcat ,, why did you delete your post ?? because your post man sense, and my rebuttle didnt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRU SOLDJA 22 Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 haha i can imagine this arguement yall have 12 squares = 12/100 = 12% 4 qtrs of payouts = 12% chance 4 times from here i dont know where to go.. not knowing yours #'s but yall got 12 of them?? i'd go with 12x4=48 , then 100-48= 52% chance of winning yall gotta have good #'s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcswildcat Posted February 7, 2010 Author Share Posted February 7, 2010 haha i can imagine this arguement yall have 12 squares = 12/100 = 12% 4 qtrs of payouts = 12% chance 4 times from here i dont know where to go.. not knowing yours #'s but yall got 12 of them?? i'd go with 12x4=48 , then 100-48= 52% chance of winning yall gotta have good #'s not drawn yet, we gotta go to the bar and get them. we usually get alot of 9s and 5s. so realistically we have about a -75% chance!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackass Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 i think it's something close to this: .88 chance of not winning 1st quarter, and then each subsequent quarter. since 4 quarter, then .88*.88*.88*.88 = .60 chance of not winning any of the quarters. So 1-.60 =.40 chance of winning 1 quarter. Now if we do this if bought 50 squares it would be .50*.50*.50*.50 = .06 chance of not winning. .94 chance of winning. I may be missing on some details like chances of winning more than once for example, but i think that's on the right track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 Big John in 5,4,3,2..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ts Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 FWIW: http://www.docsports.com/current/super-bow...robability.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 Big John in 5,4,3,2..... to confirm that Jackass has the right answer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdrudge Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 I may be missing on some details like chances of winning more than once for example, but i think that's on the right track.These are the odds of winning prior to the numbers being drawn (or known). Once you know that you once again got stuck with the worst combination of numbers, Murphy's Law of Probability will greatly reduce your odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcswildcat Posted February 8, 2010 Author Share Posted February 8, 2010 We won the final score!!!! First time in years!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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