Hype vs. Hope

[DMD]

In the two drafts I have been in, I have been surprised to see how early rookie wideouts have been taken.

 

How optimistic are you about rookie WRs?

 

Consider the poll quesions if you are starting 3 WR in a league with reception points and 12 teams. The five wideouts are the most common ones I have seen drafted.

 

Did I miss any?

[alexgaddis]

Did I miss any?

yes...Golden Tate for one

 

ps - please dont ban me

Edited May 19, 2010 by alexgaddis

[DMD]

I have not seen Tate or LaFell drafted yet but I can see the chance for at least opportunity for both.

[Seahawks21]

I'm fairly certain Golden Tate will be the #2 in Seattle instantly. I know Seattle isn't considered part of the continental United States, but for a team that is going to have to pass a ton, I would think he would figure to outperform most of the guys on the list, if not all of them. Bryant is most certainly a better talent, as is Thomas most likely, but I'm not sure their opportunities are as good as Tate's.

[polksalet]

Thomas or Mccluster in the last round. No way I'm touching Bryant.

[gilthorp]

Meh

WR3

Meh

Meh

High

[kpholmes]

No way I'm touching Bryant.

Yup.

When Jerrah tries to force the ball to his favorites, it never ends well.

[bushwacked]

What about Damien Williams at Tennessee and Reinfeldt's statements about him possibly being the #1 WR as a rookie? I've read reports his skill set should translate quickly into the NFL and he has Britt and 2 journeymen (Gage and Washington) to battle for playing time.

[Gopher]

Thomas - I like the fact that there's obviously going to be an opportunity for playing time in Denver, with Marshall gone, Decker recovering from injury, Royal coming off of a sophomore slump, and nobody else of significant merit on the roster. Still, I'm not sure I would be confident with him as my #3, unless I had two absolute lock/studs ahead of him. Borderline WR3 or WR4 (backup).

 

Bryant - MAY be more talented than Thomas, but obviously has better players around him in Dallas. In a redraft, I see this guy as nothing more than a WR4.

 

Benn - A similar situation to Thomas in Denver... roster is wide open at the WR position. Another borderline WR3/4 at best.

 

Williams - I like Benn's chances of making a splash better than that of Williams... This guy quit his team in college, which makes me question how he'll handle losing a lot this year. Not saying he doesn't have a bright future, but I don't think it will happen right away.

 

McCluster - I actually like this guy's chances quite a bit... to at the very least see playing time and get touches. Probably due to the fact that he's not your typical WR... he can be used in a variety of packages, maybe somewhat similar to Harvin last year. Would definitely take a chance on him as a WR4 in deeper leagues, but not a fantasy starter... yet.

 

In a redraft, I would rank them this way:

 

Thomas - Top two talent, and most opportunity.

Bryant - Less opportunity than 3-4 others on the list, but he's talented, has Romo, and Austin/Witten are still going to draw coverage.

McCluster - Most versatile, and on a team that needs a play-maker.

Benn - Opportunity is there.

Tate - Ditto.

Decker - Potentially the best "possession" WR candidate in this draft, but that's coming from a homer.

Williams (TB) - Has opportunity... but I like Benn better.

Williams (TEN) - Is it me, or does Tennessee seem like a black hole of mediocrity for WR's?

Gilyard - Might be worth a flier, as a WR5.

 

Others I probably wouldn't touch unless it was my 5th or 6th WR, in a deep league: Shipley (too crowded in CIN), Sanders (PIT), Roberts (ARI), Easley (BUF).

[The Irish Doggy]

In redrafts, I just don't care about rookie WRs. Historically, not enough of them pan out in year one, and I've never bet on the right guy other than by dumb luck. So, that's a whole lot of "meh" for me.

[Bronco Billy]

Love Benn's match of ability/skills to the opportunity available in TB. Benn is pretty much pro-ready because he is such a superior athlete and he has the size/mass/strength to counter the mistakes his inexperience will inevitably cause. In other words, he may be a bit sloppy in a route or run the route 2 yds off where he is supposed to be, but with his size, strength, and athleticism he'll be able to go get the ball regardless of being somewhat out of position, and he'll be able to outfight DBs for the ball - which he has the attitiude to do. The guy had to save Juice Williams from himself countless times, and now he has Freeman throwing to him. That's a gigantic swing in Benn's favor.

 

There is no WR on TB's roster who can keep Benn out of the starting lineup. So Benn gets to start immediately and has a QB with a lively arm looking for a security blanket. This has all the earmarks of a Boldin/Colston type beginning, and Benn is good enough to take advanatge of it. It's a perfect storm that no other WR in this class can come close to having.

 

Bryant is going to have to fight for targets, and with Roy Williams' sudden resurgence there is a chance that Bryant will be given the chance to learn the position like he ought to. Bryant may be a better overall athlete than Benn, but he doesn't have the immediate opportunity Benn does - and that may benefit him in the long run. Someone will draft him before I would - and they may be rewarded because Bryant can be that good - but my hunch is that he just won't quite get the targets he needs to be a big impact guy in year 1. That could change quickly with a critical injury.

 

I don't like Thomas' chances in DEN at all in year 1. The only thing he has going for him is a HC with a gigantic ego who may put him on the field just to prove how right he was. But Thomas isn't ready or refined enough for the pro game right now, and his strength is getting deep on inferior athletes - something he won't find with NFL CBs, and his team doresn't have a starting QB who can take advantage of his downfield ability because their arms are so weak. Thomas is in no way, shape, or form ready for running the short/midrange route tree successfully at the NFL level. He's at least 2 years away from being ready to be an impact WR.

 

Williams falls into the same opportunity as Benn, but he isn't as ready as Benn and there are always lingering questions based in sound rationale about his committment/attitude. I also would have a difficult time seeing TB wanting to start 2 rookie WRs with a 2nd year emerging QB. I think the talent is there for Williams to be a solid contributor, but unless he proves himself to be superior in talent, ability, attitiude, and pro-readiness to Benn, I just don't see how he gets the chances Benn will.

 

McCluster is a wild card. There's really no way to anticipate how he'll perform in year 1. He's just so damned small, and as fast and shifty as he is he can't outrun pursuing LBs and DLs on every play as he gets turned back into hte middle of the field. I have a feeling that he's being over-rated like Bush was coming out. He'll get some touches, and he'll run out of multiple positions in odd formations, but I think his upside is limited until the rest of the O around him gets better - which means his year 1 impact may have a lower ceiling than people are anticipating.

Edited May 19, 2010 by Bronco Billy

[ABearWithFurniture]

Doesn't Roy Williams 'resurge' every year around training camp?

[flemingd]

In the two drafts I have been in, I have been surprised to see how early rookie wideouts have been taken.

 

How optimistic are you about rookie WRs?

 

Consider the poll quesions if you are starting 3 WR in a league with reception points and 12 teams. The five wideouts are the most common ones I have seen drafted.

 

Did I miss any?

Taylor Price - NEP, 3rd rounder - most likely to outplay his ADP in my opinion

Eric Decker - DEN, 3rd rounder

Emmanual Sanders - PIT, 3rd rounder

 

Generally I'm not high on rookie WR. You have to draft them in keeper/dynasty leagues, otherwise someone else will and stash them, but they are rarely productive enough to justify their draft position. For every Randy Moss or Anquan Boldin there are a dozen Troy Williamsons.

 

My general strategy is to look for under-the-radar types like those listed above and get them late, then watch as people that drafted them early realize they can't wait around for them to learn how to run routes with NFL-caliber DB's on them and NFL-caliber QB's expectations of precision.

[BeeR]

I'm almost never optimistic about rookie WRs and grab them late at most as most rooks just don't do much. Bryant might be an exception this year - I like his talent and opportunity a lot. Won't pay a ton, but will give him a look earlier than many I think.

[BearBroncos]

I'm almost never optimistic about rookie WRs and grab them late at most as most rooks just don't do much. Bryant might be an exception this year - I like his talent and opportunity a lot. Won't pay a ton, but will give him a look earlier than many I think.

 

Agreed! Rookie WR's have such a low percentage of being anything in the NFL that it's just not worth the roster spots, at times. Some of the greats were never even drafted.... Imagine that!

[TitansFan]

I want to know who Rod Smith is working with and I'll draft that kid.

 

As far as I know he's only worked with Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal and Kenny Britt, none from this draft.

[tazinib1]

LaFell? Really only cuz he's got almost not competition.

 

I know of somebody that could very well be the better rookie WR on that roster. Ya know who I'm talking about don'tcha!!!

[darin3]

I know of somebody that could very well be the better rookie WR on that roster. Ya know who I'm talking about don'tcha!!!

Man, you just LOVE those Panther reaches, don't you?

[tazinib1]

Man, you just LOVE those Panther reaches, don't you?

 

 

Somehow I knew you'd chime in.

 

We'll revisit this topic in 2-3 years.

[darin3]

 

Somehow I knew you'd chime in.

 

We'll revisit this topic in 2-3 years.

By the time the 2013 WCOFF comes around, loser buys a beer. LaFell will have more catches than Edwards.

[Seahawks21]

By the time the 2013 WCOFF comes around, loser buys a beer. LaFell will have more catches than Edwards.

Lafell is an interesting prospect. He was expected to be one of the elite WR's in college football last season, possibly battling with Dez Bryant to be considered the top prospect in this class. He got a little unlucky to get stuck with a QB who isn't much of a passer, so he got lost in the shuffle a bit. He has the measurables and could very well have the talent to match. I fully expect the Panthers to be a run-first team for the immediate future, so I'm not sure how much opportunity he'll have even if proves he can play.

[tazinib1]

By the time the 2013 WCOFF comes around, loser buys a beer. LaFell will have more catches than Edwards.

 

I'll take that bet why not. Maybe by that time I'll be able to actually go to a WCOFF and buy it for you in person.