OK, I don't quite get it

[Bronco Billy]

Full disclosure: I have drafted Blount in 2 rookie drafts, at pick 4.14 in an O-heavy 14 team IDP dynasty league and at pick 6.11 in a 16 team balanced IDP contract league

 

What am I missing here? I know the stories about character - particularly the high profile punch when he lost his head vs BSU. He also got into it with his HC before Kelly got there and was tagged rightfully with a bad attitude, though after getting disciplined by his first HC at Oregon word was he responded well right up to the post BSU game punch.

 

But the guy - when he wasn't suspended for the punch - had a career at Oregon that was literally eye-popping. His ypc was an outrageous 7+. He isn't fast, but he has decent speed. But he is absolutely a masher between the tackles and is very difficult to bring down. He reminds me of Brandon Jacobs except that Blount runs with better pad level and doesn't have Jacobs' hands as a receiver. The guy could be a bell cow given his size, but would limit the length of his career. But more realistically, he seems absolutely ideal to match up with a lighter, faster RB to handle the tough work on short yardage/goal line situations as well as working a few first down situations and occassional series to give some rest to the lighter/faster guy.

 

He was listed among almost all scouting services as somewhere between the 8th and 10th best RB in this draft despite the well known discipline issues. That's territory where a lot of successful albeit limited RBs have resided in the past decade (Rudi Johnson, Brian Westbrook, Michael Turner, Marion Barber, Brandon Jacobs, Jerious Norwood, Leon Washington, Michael Bush, Kevin Smith, Jamaal Charles, Steve Slaton to name some) and have snared opportunity in one way or another to post solid or better FF numbers.

 

Now he lands by choice in TEN, which is a run-first team looking to add a RB who can do what they hoped LenDale White would do, and seems to be just a great counter-punch (pun intended) to Chris Johnson. I know he's an UDFA, and with reason - the character issues downright scare NFL teams. But he has hooked up with a team whose HC works well with players, and he landed on team who needs a RB exactly like him but doesn't have one on the roster.

 

Given that he's gotten love from the scouting services, and he's going in somewhere between the late 4th to late 5th round in most of the IDP drafts I've seen (in other words, a lot of people who do a lot of research think but don't have to gamble on his character with a paycheck think he can play some and may contribute) my questions are:

 

1) Do others here think he has real potential to play meaningfully at the NFL level (the consensus seems to say yes)?

2) Do others agree that his game is just about an ideal compliment to Chris Johnson's (his game and stats seem to say yes)?

3) Assuming the answers to the two questions above are positive and that he can stay out of trouble, doesn't this guy: A) Pose a real risk to reduce Johnson's touches (which is very probably a very good thing in terms of keeping Johnson healthy and strong), and B) Pose a real risk to capping Johnson's numbers (a very bad thing for FF owners)?

 

Wouldn't a "Brandon Jacobs" type running mate make people pause before selecting CJ with the 1st or 2nd pick in FF drafts?

Edited May 25, 2010 by Bronco Billy

[Azazello1313]

so wait...you're saying an undrafted free agent should make me pause before picking chris johnson.

[Bronco Billy]

so wait...you're saying an undrafted free agent should make me pause before picking chris johnson.

 

Yeah, I know how it sounds. There's a real possibility I don't know what I'm talking about also. That's why I'm looking for other opinions. Blount looked to me like he is NFL capable/competent for immediate real RB work. If he can keep his nose clean...

[CowboysDiehard]

Considering that most of my leagues are the 'keeper' variety, and that I have no shot at getting CJ onto any of my rosters....then, yeah, I hope he Blount's CJ's effectiveness.

[Azazello1313]

Yeah, I know how it sounds. There's a real possibility I don't know what I'm talking about also. That's why I'm looking for other opinions. Blount looked to me like he is NFL capable/competent for immediate real RB work. If he can keep his nose clean...

 

ok, so I see how maybe he makes sense as a risk/reward pick in dynasty leagues. what I don't see is how he gives me the slightest pause in picking CJ. every back has players behind him, who might be able to supplement the lead back's skills. assuming health and a happy contract situation (these are real concerns, IMO), the titans are going to use CJ to the hilt. period, end of story.

[hooknladder]

i'm a chris johnson owner. your post was interesting. i don't think blount will have a HUGH impact. you compare him to jacobs with less hands, but jacobs only had about 60 catches over 5 years. so that leaves blount with short-work and goaline. absolute worst case scenario 750yds + 8TD's.

he could effect johnson's numbers somewhat, but still leaves johnson a solid starting ff back.

[Bronco Billy]

i'm a chris johnson owner. your post was interesting. i don't think blount will have a HUGH impact. you compare him to jacobs with less hands, but jacobs only had about 60 catches over 5 years. so that leaves blount with short-work and goaline. absolute worst case scenario 750yds + 8TD's.

he could effect johnson's numbers somewhat, but still leaves johnson a solid starting ff back.

 

I agree with that. It doesn't affect CJ as anything other than a RB1. I'm just wondering if this tempers his production to midlevel.

 

Hell - Blount may not even make the roster - but before the punching incident he was considered very highly. The talent is there to be CJ's alter ego, IMO.

[lackey]

If I have one of the first two picks in a redraft, CJ is my pick. I won't worry too much about anybody behind him as the Titans would be dumb not to use CJ. A few carries by Blount (or anybody else) might be a good thing.

[Gopher]

Two ways to look at it... He could take work away from Johnson, which I don't believe would be so significant that it would affect Johnson's value drastically. Or, he could get just enough work to keep the Titans from wearing Johnson into the ground. Johnson may be the biggest homerun threat in all of the NFL, in terms of a player who can break one at any time in the game. With that in mind, the Titans are going to keep him on the field as much as possible. Having a solid compliment to him in the backfield doesn't so much hurt his value, IMO, as it makes it less likely that he'll be forced to stay on the field for every play. To me, that's a plus... players are not only less effective when fatigue becomes a factor, they're also more likely to get hurt. If Johnson can get a short rest, now and then, he's that much more likely to break one when he DOES touch the ball.

 

Sure, if Blount really is effective, he might "steal" a few goalline carries... But, if I remember correctly, not too many of CJ's touchdowns last year were goalline situations. If he's somewhat rested, he's going to score long before they get to 1st and goal from the 1 yardline, more often than not.

Edited May 25, 2010 by Gopher

[Ditka's Moustache]

I do think Blount can have a meaningful career in the NFL, his body type and 2008 Oregon stats support the potential there.

 

I do believe his game style can compliment CJ, big body, power runner good nose for the goal line ( if 2008 is any indication )

 

Do I think he poses a threat to CJ in terms of reduced carries and numbers, here I am not so sure. To me it all comes down to scheme and coaching. Fisher and company had an established and accomplished power runner in LenDale White. The Titans didn't use White all that much 64 carries for 222 yards and 2 TDs, opting for the home run threat of Johnson even around the goal line. The previous year White rumbled in for 15 TDs so was it scheme, playing at 225 pounds after a summer without Patron? Who knows. I think the same fate will befall Blount where his talents as a power/goal line monster may not be fully realized until CJ gets hurt or moves on. Much also depends on the mind set Blount employs did the almost season long suspension at Oregon and the embarrassment of dropping out of the draft motivate him or just make him more of an angry young man??

 

The kid could be a beast if the opportunity and work ethic are there. Fourth round of a rookie draft seems like a bargain place to get him.

[HutOne]

The only effect I see him having on CJ is on goal line and short yardage situations. I really don,t see him having much of an impact on CJ ' s numbers.

[Bronco Billy]

Good points. Johnson does strike from distance. I also agree that lessening the load a bit on Johnson may lessen his touches but increase his yds/touch. Could very well even out.

 

Good thoughts so far, guys.

[hooknladder]

I agree with that. It doesn't affect CJ as anything other than a RB1. I'm just wondering if this tempers his production to midlevel.

 

Hell - Blount may not even make the roster - but before the punching incident he was considered very highly. The talent is there to be CJ's alter ego, IMO.

 

 

exactly. i still say RB1, even in small leagues....after all LeNdale White is no slouch.

 

if anything Blounts presence may get CJ into camp.

Edited May 25, 2010 by hooknladder

[Hugh B Tool]

He has a world of talent and could be a viable NFL back.......... if the nickelhead can stay out of trouble....... which he won't. A lot of trouble he got into at Eugene was swept under the rug because of his talent. He will be on his own in the Show and will be another could've been would've been, sooner rather than later. I wouldn't touch him with your pick

[Randall]

Yeah, I know how it sounds. There's a real possibility I don't know what I'm talking about also. That's why I'm looking for other opinions. Blount looked to me like he is NFL capable/competent for immediate real RB work. If he can keep his nose clean...

 

 

He looked that way to me too. I took him in the 4th of a 12 team rookie draft. Still he is behind a top RB.

 

 

He has a world of talent and could be a viable NFL back.......... if the nickelhead can stay out of trouble....... which he won't. A lot of trouble he got into at Eugene was swept under the rug because of his talent. He will be on his own in the Show and will be another could've been would've been, sooner rather than later. I wouldn't touch him with your pick

 

 

 

 

I'm not sure he'll be on his own. If the Titans are smart they will team him with someone who can guide him. Even then it may fail.

 

At least he was taken as high as Lawrence Phillips.

[Hugh B Tool]

He's a timebomb waiting to explode. Stafon Johnson is a decent flyer if he can stay on the field. Again, Blount is a talent, though he's already 240, is NOT a workout wonder and could Jamarcus himself with chicken, waffles and spleefs even before he shows up late to a meeting, practice or weightroom session. Not sayin' but I'm just sayin' up here in the NW his reputation is Hugh the wrong way

[Square]

At least he wasn't taken as high as Lawrence Phillips.

It's too bad that much talent was wasted on that d-bag.

[flemingd]

1 - yes

2 - yes

3 - yes

so wait...you're saying an undrafted free agent should make me pause before picking chris johnson.

and yes

 

The only reason this guy fell in (out of) the draft is the absolute terror Goodell is raining down on "character" guys - and it happened all across the Draft. First thing I thought when it was over was "Kiper is going to summarize this draft as the Character Draft in his first draft summary column", and I'm still surprised he didn't. The list is peppered with guys that got drafted "below" what their talent level indicates. The draft is enough of a crapshoot without factoring in that the prospects might not even be able to keep themselves in the league due to their own behavior and/or work habits.

 

Blount poses significantly more risk to CJ than Lendale did. He's much more physically talented and runs with a ton more power - Lendale runs like a sissy. He was thought of as a power back because he weighed X but really all that weight was was lard Even two years ago when he got double-digit TD's he looked more like an overweight Joseph Addai than a true power runner Blount will flat out pummel people much like Jacobs. He'll be more effective in short yardage/goal line and thus will snipe more of those opportunities. CJ's numbers were truly special, he won me a trophy, and I have him #1 overall on my list - but Blount still poses significant risk here. Titans aren't stupid, and they will do what they can to protect CJ within reason. Riding him hard is the nature of the league, and they will do that, but giving him the ball on 3rd an 1 or inside the 5 is unnecessary punishment when they have a true hammer available. They didn't with Fatdale.

[Bronco Billy]

Trying to figure out what group Blount falls into. I figure that there are 4 types of "problem children" that come out of college and into the NFL. I group them like this:

 

1) The Never-Grew-Up

 

This guy was the privledged child starting from very early on. Even in Pop Warner football they got away with a lot more because they were given a long leash due to their extraordinary talent. They never had to mature and learn discipline, self-dicipline or otherwise, because no one ever made an effort at setting boundaries for fear of losing their incredible physical ability on the field. Mommy & Daddy simply looked the other way because taking junior to task was either too bothersome or cutting into their own party time. This type of guy will always be getting themselves into messes because they haven't matured enough to act like an adult, and even if the maturing process starts in the NFL it will take years for them to develop and catch up. Cutler & Roethlisberger seem to fall into this category.

 

2) The Narcissist

 

The guy is in love with everything about themselves. They think they are so special that the rest of the world ought to worship anything and everything they say and do. They will go to extraordinary lengths to put themselves in the spotlight, even if that means things that impact them negatively. They simply can't stand the thought of someone else getting more attention than them, or placing themselves on the same level with their much less extraordinary team mates. They usually are more of a pain in the ass prima donna than a real troublemaker - unless someone steals their thunder. Chad Ochocinco Johnson is this kind of guy.

 

3) The Ready-to-Worker

 

This guy only went to college because he had to follow the rules to get to the NFL. He hated school and everything academic, but he had no choice but to participate in the college scene, because that is a required hurdle for getting to the NFL. This guy is different from the other 3 in that they got in a ton of trouble in college because they hated everything about it, but generally won't find trouble in the NFL because they have finally gotten the job they wanted all along and are satisfied to make their living. They are where they belong, they are ready to work, and will accept discipline and sacrifice as a way of maintaining their vocation - they won't do anything to jeopardize that and are willing to do whatever it takes to stay there. These guys change from the troublesome college catepillar to the great team player NFL moth.

 

4) The Sociopath

 

Not much explanation needed. This guy is the bad seed. He loves football because it allows him to legally participate in violence and mayhem, and has every intention of inflicting as much pain and trouble as he can for as long as he can stay in the league - because he enjoys it. This is the guy who has a very, very short career followed by a long stint in jail when he goes off in public after he is run out of the league. This is Lawrence Phillips.

 

 

I have a sneaking suspicion that Blount falls into the 3rd category, but worry that there is a possibility of some #4 in him. He seemed generally contrite when he got suspended at OSU, and changed his behavior significantly right up to throwing that punch when the BSU player dissed him after the game.

Edited May 26, 2010 by Bronco Billy

[Big Ernie McCracken]

I'd imagine Blount will show up very hungry for camp in hopes of making the roster. For a man of his size he has amazing lateral quickness and seems to find the crease between the tackles well but can still get to the edge when he needs to. His top end speed is lacking, but so is everyone in the worlds compared to C.Johnson. Blount could make for a truly punishing change of pace in what would be a diabolical and often unfair combination of blinding speed and agility in CJ and sheer brute force in the form of a 250 pound angry behemoth out to make a point to every team and GM and the league that he belongs in the NFL. I'm curious to see how badly he wants it in camp and preseason because his skill set fits the NFL game and had he played last year without incident or injury, I'd imagine he wouldn't have made it past the 3rd round in April. As far as the effect on CJ's value, if Fisher chooses to preserve CJ in short yardage or goal line duty and Blount shows a capacity to perform in that role, then he could effect CJ's value much in the same way that L.White was supposed to last season, and we all saw how that turned out

[bpwallace49]

His talent is obvious.

 

His personality and temper is what will determine his success or failure.

[Capt. Stanky]

I'm kind of surprised that this much is being made out of an undrafted rookie FA. He's got to get past Ringer on the depth chart before he can challenge CJ for touches. Yes, Blount fits the role of a power back/change of pace back to CJ than Ringer, but don't discount Ringer so quickly. At 5' 9" & 210 lbs. Ringer is an underrated between the tackles runner. Don't fall in love with Blount so fast.

Edited May 26, 2010 by Capt. Stanky

[hooknladder]

I'm kind of surprised that this much is being made out of an undrafted rookie FA. He's got to get past Ringer on the depth chart before he can challenge CJ for touches. Yes, Blount fits the role of a power back/change of pace back to CJ than Ringer, but don't discount Ringer so quickly. At 5' 9" & 210 lbs. Ringer is an underrated between the tackles runner. Don't fall in love with Blount so fast.

agreed. Ringer is good.

[Seahawks21]

Blount won't last three years in the league. The vast majority of undrafted players don't make a team. He isn't a guy that has a spot to lose, he has to act right and play himself onto the team. I don't think he has the makeup to do it.

[piratesownninjas]

I know it's crazy, but I have MJD and Rice as my 1 and 2 this year with Johnson behind that.