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Early thoughts on over/underrated players?


BeeR
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BeeR said drafts, so I was looking at a few ADP lists. Austin was around 5 or 6 (I think he can crack the top 3), but Rice was around 12 or 13. Seems low with Favre coming back.

 

Do you have any solid proof he has actually committed to returning?

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Beanie Wells=Overrated. Everyone is riding his nuts and don't remember the fact that he's fragile.

Steve Smith NYG=Underrated. The guy is a reception machine and doesnt get nearly the attention he deserves.

Steve Smith looks to be a great PPR draft selection per ADP this year. The hype on H.Nicks makes Smith a nice WR target that looks to be falling to the bottom of the 3rd, and sometimes even 4th round.

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I'm all over Beanie Wells starting at the end of the 2nd round.

If healthy, Leon Washington will win the majority of touches in Seattle and will be vastly underrated.

John Carlson won't be top 5. He isn't as talented as we all thought, and Matt stopped throwing him the ball. Also Tate, Washington and the other TE's the Seahawks have brought in should all dig into his totals a little bit.

 

DeAngelo is underrated. He'll be a top 5 back this year.

I think Miles Austin is a bit overrated. He'll get the attention of the defense this year.

Uggh its too early for me. I haven't looked at any kinds of rankings yet.

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John Carlson won't be top 5. He isn't as talented as we all thought, and Matt stopped throwing him the ball. Also Tate, Washington and the other TE's the Seahawks have brought in should all dig into his totals a little bit.

 

What TE's have they brought in that will eat into his totals. If anything, the TE's (I.E. Chris Baker) they brought in will alleviate some of the blocking assignments, freeing him up ala Gates to be a menace over the middle. Hass has already called Carlson a fantasy sleeper for 2010. Stopped throwing him the ball? Hardly. He'll be the #2 passing option for the Seahawks this year. In 2 years, he has averaged 53 catches per season and 6 TD's. With no injury history and the woe-ful WR core in Seattle, I seriously beg to differ with you.

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What TE's have they brought in that will eat into his totals. If anything, the TE's (I.E. Chris Baker) they brought in will alleviate some of the blocking assignments, freeing him up ala Gates to be a menace over the middle. Hass has already called Carlson a fantasy sleeper for 2010. Stopped throwing him the ball? Hardly. He'll be the #2 passing option for the Seahawks this year. In 2 years, he has averaged 53 catches per season and 6 TD's. With no injury history and the woe-ful WR core in Seattle, I seriously beg to differ with you.

 

Carlson produced very well in his rookie season and he only started 9 games. But the 2008 WR core was decimated, the whole depth chart was basically lost somewhere near the beginning of the season. Carlson became the #1 receiving target by default. Last year Carlson's numbers dipped in receptions and yards despite logging in a full season as a starter. His 2009 TD total could have been horrendous, if not for the last 4 weeks of the season.

 

With last year's woeful WR core in Seattle, Carlson was a distant #3 in targets and receptions behind Housh and Burleson. He would have been #4 in both categories if Branch had been healthy the first couple games. So, what has changed from last year?

 

Hawks lost Burleson and drafted Tate and TE Anthony McCoy; and don't look now but Mike Williams is supposedly in great shape and having an awesome mini camp. Also, Deon Butler has a year under his belt. If anything the WRs should be deeper and potentially better than last year. Unless Carrol increases a significant part of the passing offense towards Carlson, and even then, I think it's a stretch to assume Carlson will be the #2 passing option on the Hawks. Carlson was a borderline top 15 TE in PPR formats last year; this Seattle homer agrees with the previous homer post. Thinking Carlson is a shoe in as a borderline top 5 TE seems very optimistic to me.

Edited by bushwacked
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Carlson had the following targets over his two seasons so far.

 

2008 - 80

2009 - 83

 

His Catch % went down slightly as he caught 4 less balls in 2009 than 2008 (51 to 55 respectively) but he was able to haul in 2 more TDs.

 

Seems he is fairly consistent right?

 

 

Wrong.

 

First 8 games - 57 targets for 33 rec, 2 TD (both coming in the same game vs Rams wk 1)

Last 8 games - 26 targets for 18 rec, 5 TD

 

The Seahawk passing attack didn't just shut down either. They had their fair share of solid games yardage wise throughout the season that I don't need to recap. Carlson was simply used less in a snap sense and go-to receiver sense. Check his participation splits. Throughout the first 8 weeks, Carlson was used in over 90% of the offensive snaps 6 times. The remaining two games were at 80% or better. In the final games, he failed to crack to 90% participation mark in all but two games. So was he sent out into routes less? Somewhat but not necessarily. 293 of his 542 pass routes came in the first 8 games (54%) so the splits aren't bad.

 

So how do you explain the target discrepancy? He was simply featured less. His target per route percentage was awful in the second half of the season.

 

The upside? Of the 7 receiving TDs in the second half of the season, Carlson caught 5 of them.

The downside? He barely averaged more than 3 targets a game in the second half. And with a 67% catch percentage, you are looking at just over two recs a game.

 

I regularly get Seahawk games on TV because I live in Western Canada. If you have seen any of the games, the Seahawks just don't run Carlson up the seam or over the middle every play like many of the top TEs do. He is not a featured receiver in Seattle anymore.

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. If you have seen any of the games, the Seahawks just don't run Carlson up the seam or over the middle every play like many of the top TEs do. He is not a featured receiver in Seattle anymore.

 

Because he was called on to block in many packages. They have solved that problem with a blocking TE.

 

This debate is going to clearly be a "show me the results" at years end. I say the lack of a great running game, the addition of solid pass/run blocking TE's and a still woeful WR core will bode very well for Carlson.

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They didn't leave Carlson in to block often. He is perhaps the worst blocking TE in the NFL. That wouldn't be much help. They tried that for a while then pretty much just left the backs in to help instead. Carlson just doesn't create separation unless the defense forgets about him. On many of his catches, he is wide open due to a blown assignment. He just isn't special. With a struggling receiving corps and running game and an offense that wanted to keep things close to the vest, you would have figured he would have had an oustanding year last year, but he just absolutely vanished. After games you would have thought something was wrong with him because you couldn't remember seeing him in the field.

 

The running game should at the least moderately improved with the additions of Baker, Okung & Hamilton and a healthy Chris Spencer to help make some lanes for Leon Washington. Also, Carlson is going to lose some specialty plays to McCoy. McCoy will have a chance to make a few plays for the offense, which you would think would take away from some of the plays they would have called for Carlson.

 

He could possibly bounce back I guess, but he was pretty much eliminated from Hasselbeck's sequences last year. I see him as trending downward, not upward. Believe me, I would love nothing more than to eat these words, but I just can't logically put that equation together.

Edited by Seahawks21
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They didn't leave Carlson in to block often. He is perhaps the worst blocking TE in the NFL. That wouldn't be much help. They tried that for a while then pretty much just left the backs in to help instead. Carlson just doesn't create separation unless the defense forgets about him. On many of his catches, he is wide open due to a blown assignment. He just isn't special. With a struggling receiving corps and running game and an offense that wanted to keep things close to the vest, you would have figured he would have had an oustanding year last year, but he just absolutely vanished. After games you would have thought something was wrong with him because you couldn't remember seeing him in the field.

 

The running game should at the least moderately improved with the additions of Baker, Okung & Hamilton and a healthy Chris Spencer to help make some lanes for Leon Washington. Also, Carlson is going to lose some specialty plays to McCoy. McCoy will have a chance to make a few plays for the offense, which you would think would take away from some of the plays they would have called for Carlson.

 

He could possibly bounce back I guess, but he was pretty much eliminated from Hasselbeck's sequences last year. I see him as trending downward, not upward. Believe me, I would love nothing more than to eat these words, but I just can't logically put that equation together.

 

Well, even if he isn't a good blocker, he was still used in the role some and he's going to be used to block less this year. So maybe that leads to an extra catch or two a game - could still make a noticeable difference in his stats.

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Because he was called on to block in many packages. They have solved that problem with a blocking TE.

 

This debate is going to clearly be a "show me the results" at years end. I say the lack of a great running game, the addition of solid pass/run blocking TE's and a still woeful WR core will bode very well for Carlson.

 

That's just simply not true. You are assuming that his targets are going down because he is blocking more but that fact is that he isn't.

 

2008: 360 routes ran, 355 blocking assignments (pass/run combined)

2009: 542 routes ran, 428 blocking assignments (pass/run combined)

 

The guy's blocking assignment % dropped from 50% to 44% and he ran 182 more routes. Yet he can't top his rookie rec numbers?

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I wish I had my handy dandy snap count page at the ready, but alas, I'm drunk and can't find it. I can almost gaurantee you that .....well I can almost assure you that his snap count did not decrease. His targets did by default because of the duties he had to absorb. Now it would be a totally different argument if any of you would have said he lacked pass catching ability. That is so far from the case.

 

I stand by my prediction of Carlson pushing the top 5 in TE overall Fantasy stats. Yep.....I'm boning up a SeaChicken. Good lord what the hell is next for me..rooting for a Patriot?

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That's just simply not true. You are assuming that his targets are going down because he is blocking more but that fact is that he isn't.

 

2008: 360 routes ran, 355 blocking assignments (pass/run combined)

2009: 542 routes ran, 428 blocking assignments (pass/run combined)

 

The guy's blocking assignment % dropped from 50% to 44% and he ran 182 more routes. Yet he can't top his rookie rec numbers?

 

For what it's worth, Jason Witten (an actual top 5 TE) ran 546 routes this year and 487 routes the year before that.

 

Those routes turned into 124 targets for 94 rec and 121 targets for 81 rec respectively for him.

 

Carlson simply doesn't get looked at enough.

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For what it's worth, Jason Witten (an actual top 5 TE) ran 546 routes this year and 487 routes the year before that.

 

Those routes turned into 124 targets for 94 rec and 121 targets for 81 rec respectively for him.

 

Carlson simply doesn't get looked at enough.

 

Again, based on the fact he was called on to block alot during the 1st half of the season.

 

I'm done. I'll let the 2010 stats speak for themselves.

Edited by tazinib1
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Again, based on the fact he was called on to block alot during the 1st half of the season.

 

I'm done. I'll let the 2010 stats speak for themselves.

 

Not sure you read the post before that. 182 more routes? 4 less catches? Block percentage down?

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Not sure you read the post before that. 182 more routes? 4 less catches? Block percentage down?

 

 

I'm not so sure that stat covers "in-line" blocking schemes. Be that as it may...I'm rocking out to some serious classic rock right now and I will diaper dirt myself happily to land Carlson as my staring TE any day of the week. I'm done......I'm not a stat-nick.

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