Stats or Gut Feeling

[Wpob]

When you are drafting, do you go strictly by stats, or do you listen and trust your gut?

Edited June 21, 2010 by Wpob

[Infinity]

I actually for the last 4 years create 32 spreadsheets with notes and analysis' of each team in the NFL. It is a lot of work but i put a pretty good chunk of change in the Fantasy Football each year so you gotta work hard to play hard and to win big.

 

However, gut feelings; have been known to have power over my spread sheets.

[keggerz]

Stats? Stats are for suckers

 

 

[Big John]

Stats? Stats are for suckers

 

 

As they are your fiend.

Edited June 21, 2010 by Big John

[Wpob]

The reason I ask is that I have two players I am conflicted on: Shonn Greene and Ryan Matthews.

 

I drafted Green last year in a TD Only Dynasty League and held on to him. Prior to LT signing, I was riding high. However, I feel LT will not play on all 3rd downs and goal line plays. This most likely means Green will have to score on running plays only from most likely 10 yards out and beyond. Using this theory, how can he score more than 8 TDs? I feel I might be better served moving him while his value is high.

 

Ryan Matthews is someone I did not particularly think was going to be a good pro when I saw him play in college. But now he is in an ideal place to succeed but I can't help thinking he is overvalued. I have the first pick in our rookie draft and am a little gun shiy to take him based on my gut.

 

Ugh. I wish the season started already.

[rebdog]

The reason I ask is that I have two players I am conflicted on: Shonn Greene and Ryan Matthews.

 

I drafted Green last year in a TD Only Dynasty League and held on to him. Prior to LT signing, I was riding high. However, I feel LT will not play on all 3rd downs and goal line plays. This most likely means Green will have to score on running plays only from most likely 10 yards out and beyond. Using this theory, how can he score more than 8 TDs? I feel I might be better served moving him while his value is high.

 

Ryan Matthews is someone I did not particularly think was going to be a good pro when I saw him play in college. But now he is in an ideal place to succeed but I can't help thinking he is overvalued. I have the first pick in our rookie draft and am a little gun shiy to take him based on my gut.

 

Ugh. I wish the season started already.

 

i think Greene is the safe choice. LT's a backup only i believe. Greene is built to be a short-yardage back.

i have high hopes for Mathews but the situation with VJ and McNeil could foreshadow a rocky road for us this year....at least offensively.

[Infinity]

Agreed. Greene is a great choice and even after last season, and still having the best offensive line in the NFL, and being involved in a run first offense, people are hesitant on him.

 

In addition coaches will have a much harder time replacing a Shonn Greene, as his backups are LT and then Joe McKnight

[BearBroncos]

Stats (for me at least) are vital on deciding on a player, however, I look at the events and situations for the upcoming year. A player whom had marginal stats last year, but a vastly improved offensive line this year adds value to that player. Like Wells, losing Warner jumped Wells value to me by about 50%, even with the added work load of TH.

 

So, a round about way to answer your question.... I uses stats....and my gut Mainly because it's now touching the keyboards

[Savage Beatings]

Gut. Sometimes it serves me well... sometimes.

[Chavez]

Gotta say I use both - if I have a good feeling on a player but the #s just ain't there, I'm going to have to bump him down.

 

By the same token, all the #s in the world won't convince me if I just don't like the guy. But even so, if said player falls down to where you can't pass up the value, you hold your nose and pick him.

[Bronco Billy]

This most likely means Green will have to score on running plays only from most likely 10 yards out and beyond.

 

Could you type a bit more slowly and explain this to me? Are you expecting LT to be the primary RB? If he were (and I'm not saying he will be - LT has slowed substantially in the past year or so), wouldn't Greene still be taking the short yardage/goal line work?

[buddahj]

When you are drafting, do you go strictly by stats, or do you listen and trust your gut?

A little of both. By mid-draft, I usually start using my "booze knowledge" to get me though.

[Wpob]

Could you type a bit more slowly and explain this to me? Are you expecting LT to be the primary RB? If he were (and I'm not saying he will be - LT has slowed substantially in the past year or so), wouldn't Greene still be taking the short yardage/goal line work?

 

I guess what I am saying is I feel LT will get goalline carries more so than Green. And since it is a little easier to throw fades from 5-10 yards out than running up the middle, most of Greene's scores will have to come from beyond the 10 yardline.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

Stats? Stats are for suckers

 

 

[MTSuper7]

I guess what I am saying is I feel LT will get goalline carries more so than Green. And since it is a little easier to throw fades from 5-10 yards out than running up the middle, most of Greene's scores will have to come from beyond the 10 yardline.

 

NYJ = running team

SDC = passing team

 

That would probably push me over the edge toward Greene. Plus Greene has at least proven himself in the NFL. What has Mathews proven thus far? That being said, the best you can do is make your decision and don't look back.

 

But aside from this specific scenario, the better question is do you rely on research in general or gut feeling. Stats are just one of a number of research items that can help you determine a player's relative value. In the end, when a tough judgment call is required, you almost have to rely on your gut.

[darin3]

I go with my gut... on how the past seasons' stats reflect a player's potential for stats in the season in question.

[Wpob]

I go with my gut... on how the past seasons' stats reflect a player's potential for stats in the season in question.

 

I go by my gut. I read the magazines and the projections, but in the end, right or wrong, I go with my gut.

[Capt. Waffle]

Do my research, make a tenative gameplan, see where I fall in the draft and seewho does what as it progresses along.

[rajncajn]

I use stats, but combine them with information gathered on the player, their situation, their history and their attitude. When I still can't decide I throw darts.

[Seahawks21]

There are only a handful of players that seem to be basically immune to situation changes. Personnel and philosophies and strength of schedule change so much every year, that the stats from the last few years won't necessarily repeat themselves. I look over the stats to see if there are any players that I wasn't aware of in certain tears. For example, a young player that I basically ignored ended up having 60+ catches. I would like to know that going into the draft so I wouldn't ignore him anymore. I tend to judge a player more on talent, system and opportunity. I have probably been in the bottom 20% of almost all of the drafts I have ever been in, as far as statistical research, and have done okay.

 

Greene appears to be the safer pick. That said, it is a debate between unproven and more unproven. You won't find stats that will help you with that. That is a 100% gut decision.

[lennykravitz2004]

I realize this is going to sound like I'm sucking up... (and if I get a discount on my membership, then I am)

 

...last year was my first year here, and while I did some of my own research, when it came time for the draft, I used The Huddle's info. Created my xls and used that during the draft, filling in colors for those who got picked. Pretty much went with BPA too. For the first time in my 6 years of FF addiction, I was actually first overall in my league. Lost in 2nd round, but I FINALLY finished in the $$$. (yeah, I know... "want to join my league?") I figured, "there's a reason I'm paying for their advice". Kind of like the reason why people pay me for my advice in my job. And what I had done for myself up to that point was certainly NOT working... LOL.

 

I guess my answer is... I used my gut feeling to use The Huddle's stats.

 

Now the question is, can I get improvement on last year's results?

 

[Avernus]

If LT had anything left in the tank, he would have shown it last year when he was fighting to stay on a winning team (or not)...but not only that, he knew that he could be released and still couldn't produce any more than he did...

 

I'm not too worried about LT on the Jets and I even wonder if he can be productive over the course of the season on such a limited number of touches - I've always known him as a RB who needed his 20+ carries to really flesh out his production, except when he played certain teams that allowed him to run like a freak the entire game...

 

I guess I'm just one of the people who think LT can't stay healthy enough to be productive, or even take enough away from Greene...

 

my only question is "how good is Greene in the passing game?"

[Scooby's Hubby]

I think it is all about when you draft a player...projected stats (barring any injury) are usually close to reality. The draft will pretty much go in line with projected stats, too. But if in your gut you believe a player will come outta nowhere (like I was last year with Stv Smith NYG) then it is up to you to take him a smidge early to be sure you get him. Last year a guy in our local picked Sproles in the 5th. We looked at him like he was crazy. He was premature in his pick b/c he coulda got him even in the 6 maybe 7 round, but nevertheless he went with his gut and reaped some rewards there. Usually your gut will be more effective with rookies and new starters. Like maybe waiting on Kevin Kolb instead of paying too much for someone else.

[ajfalcone]

stats include lots of variables...........including, upcoming schedule, new co-ordinators/coahes, rookies drafted, age, injuries......blah,blah,blah so yes gut feeling always wins out.

[Slugs3511]

I have used both, but, I have used waivers to my advantage throughout the years.....Last year I was 0-3 to start the season, I picked up Mendenhall in week 1, Mike Sim-Walker in week two and in week 3 got LeSean McCoy, I ended the season on a 9 game win streak, lost in week 2 of the playoffs, but finished 3rd overall for a nice chunk of change....