Paging Rovers!

[griff321]

What kind of stats are you predicting for them? I hear that LT is not a threat at all to steal a large number of carries and I feel Shonn will be the guy to get, but is he really worth the ADP?

 

You've proven to have way more knowledge then myself regarding this team, so I eagerly await what are your thoughts are regarding how they'll pan out this season?

[Capt. Stanky]

SGreen looks like a Rudi Johnson clone to me. He doesn't have that break away speed, but has great balance and power. He also won't catch many passes much like Rudi. I think his cieling is about 1800 combined yards and 12 TD's. I agree that LT won't steal to many carries. I do see LT with upwards of 40 rec to like 20 for Green.

Edited July 1, 2010 by Capt. Stanky

[Rovers]

I am humbled!

 

Especially since I have no facts or words of wisdom on this one, just opinion. In years past, yea, I was right about C Martin and T Jones and had good solid reasons for those projections, while many disagreed, but this is a very different situation, and I don't have opinions I would defend strongly, as I have in the past.

 

Greene certainly isn't fast, but he is fast enough to break off a couple of 40-45 yard TD's this year, IF... he can stay healthy (I have my doubts, he takes a lot of hits with his running style) and get 250 carries. He will certainly be the GL RB, again, if healthy.

 

What to make of Tomlinson, and just what he has left in the tank has to be a guess in anyone's book. Tomlinson recently said he thinks he could win the starting job. I beleive at best, he might split 45-45 with Greene, but stranger things have happened. (The other 10% goes to McKnight/whomever)

 

So, based more on gut feel than anything else, Greene, if he stays healthy is the RB on the Jets to get, I think he gets about 95% of the GL carries. The splits can only be guessed at, but I'll say Greene gets about 65% on a run oriented offense, and could approach 300 carries. 250 is more realistic. So far, Greene has FAILED at demonstrating durability, and that is my big problem with him. I don't discount his short NFL injury history mostly because of his running style, he takes hits when he runs. If not for that, I'd easilly have him ranked around 10-11 RB overall, believing he will be the first and second down primary RB.

 

But, sorry, I won't stick my neck out too far on the Jets RB situation. Nor will I jump too soon for Greene or Tomlinson in a draft based on what we know now. If I did draft Greene, I would do my best to get the Tomlinson handcuff. The picture will become more clear diring TC and preseason, but the question of Greene's durability will still remain.

[Scooby's Hubby]

McKnight will get carries ... Sanchez needs LT for a safety dump on 3rd downs. Sanchez is learning and using more and more of the play book. Now he has a receiver in the backfield with LT, a TE and a WR corp that is talented and shaping up nicely. More weapons to open the field up will make 3rd conversions easier.

[Avernus]

I really believe LT has only mediocre play at best left in the tank...and probably not for more than 10 games...

 

I'm big on Greene for TD only leagues....even in my league where RB's who catch are favored, I still might take Greene in the 3rd or 4th depending on who is available...

[Rovers]

McKnight will get carries ... Sanchez needs LT for a safety dump on 3rd downs. Sanchez is learning and using more and more of the play book. Now he has a receiver in the backfield with LT, a TE and a WR corp that is talented and shaping up nicely. More weapons to open the field up will make 3rd conversions easier.

 

What makes you think McKnight will get carries? I think he'll be lucky to get even 50. I think in his rookie year, with LT and Greene there, he'll be more of a gimmick player. He needs to be developed, much the same way Leon Washington was. The Jets got LT to be that third down back, and McKnight has a long way to go before he will get significant touches. Sanchez had a reciever out of the backfield last year too, Leon Washington, until he got injured. Jones wasn't dog meat as a backfield reciever either.

 

LT has not been durable for several years now, but maybe in a more limited role he can hold up. He was also running behind a dinged up makeshift offensive line last year. He has a very outside shot of having a resuerection year. That and Greene's questionable injury history and running style makes all of these RB's risky picks if taken early. If I thought Greene could stay healthy, I'd call him a second round pick easy. I might take him in the 3rd round, but again, I'd be sure to handcuff LT in this case.

[Jackass]

I am humbled!

 

Especially since I have no facts or words of wisdom on this one, just opinion. In years past, yea, I was right about C Martin and T Jones and had good solid reasons for those projections, while many disagreed, but this is a very different situation, and I don't have opinions I would defend strongly, as I have in the past.

 

Greene certainly isn't fast, but he is fast enough to break off a couple of 40-45 yard TD's this year, IF... he can stay healthy (I have my doubts, he takes a lot of hits with his running style) and get 250 carries. He will certainly be the GL RB, again, if healthy.

 

What to make of Tomlinson, and just what he has left in the tank has to be a guess in anyone's book. Tomlinson recently said he thinks he could win the starting job. I beleive at best, he might split 45-45 with Greene, but stranger things have happened. (The other 10% goes to McKnight/whomever)

 

So, based more on gut feel than anything else, Greene, if he stays healthy is the RB on the Jets to get, I think he gets about 95% of the GL carries. The splits can only be guessed at, but I'll say Greene gets about 65% on a run oriented offense, and could approach 300 carries. 250 is more realistic. So far, Greene has FAILED at demonstrating durability, and that is my big problem with him. I don't discount his short NFL injury history mostly because of his running style, he takes hits when he runs. If not for that, I'd easilly have him ranked around 10-11 RB overall, believing he will be the first and second down primary RB.

 

But, sorry, I won't stick my neck out too far on the Jets RB situation. Nor will I jump too soon for Greene or Tomlinson in a draft based on what we know now. If I did draft Greene, I would do my best to get the Tomlinson handcuff. The picture will become more clear diring TC and preseason, but the question of Greene's durability will still remain.

 

 

Couldn't LT get a fair amount of GL carries since he has a reputation for a nose for the goal line? and also just to throw him a bone as he's gotta be up there for some career TD records.

[Rovers]

Couldn't LT get a fair amount of GL carries since he has a reputation for a nose for the goal line? and also just to throw him a bone as he's gotta be up there for some career TD records.

 

Could happen, but I doubt it. Greene is a powerful inside RB. On the other hand, last year the Jets went mostly with the sure handed T Jones at the GL, a guy who rarely ever fumbled, another thing Greene struggled with at least early last year. So, not a bad thought IMO, but I think the CS will go with Greene's pure power and anhother year of being coached on ball security.

 

The bottom line is that the Jets' RB situation is dicey. It's a new mix, a QB now going into his second year, and lots of question marks about ball distribution that will only be partially answered in the preseason. I have pimped CMart and Jones in the past big time as a homer, but each time it was well founded on facts and info, and as it turned out, they were accurate projections. Ones I stood by, even took bets on it here at the Huddle. This situation.... if I had an opinion, I would not bet any more than dirty socks on it.

[griff321]

I am humbled!

 

Especially since I have no facts or words of wisdom on this one, just opinion. In years past, yea, I was right about C Martin and T Jones and had good solid reasons for those projections, while many disagreed, but this is a very different situation, and I don't have opinions I would defend strongly, as I have in the past.

 

Greene certainly isn't fast, but he is fast enough to break off a couple of 40-45 yard TD's this year, IF... he can stay healthy (I have my doubts, he takes a lot of hits with his running style) and get 250 carries. He will certainly be the GL RB, again, if healthy.

 

What to make of Tomlinson, and just what he has left in the tank has to be a guess in anyone's book. Tomlinson recently said he thinks he could win the starting job. I beleive at best, he might split 45-45 with Greene, but stranger things have happened. (The other 10% goes to McKnight/whomever)

 

So, based more on gut feel than anything else, Greene, if he stays healthy is the RB on the Jets to get, I think he gets about 95% of the GL carries. The splits can only be guessed at, but I'll say Greene gets about 65% on a run oriented offense, and could approach 300 carries. 250 is more realistic. So far, Greene has FAILED at demonstrating durability, and that is my big problem with him. I don't discount his short NFL injury history mostly because of his running style, he takes hits when he runs. If not for that, I'd easilly have him ranked around 10-11 RB overall, believing he will be the first and second down primary RB.

 

But, sorry, I won't stick my neck out too far on the Jets RB situation. Nor will I jump too soon for Greene or Tomlinson in a draft based on what we know now. If I did draft Greene, I would do my best to get the Tomlinson handcuff. The picture will become more clear diring TC and preseason, but the question of Greene's durability will still remain.

FAN EFFIN TASTIC!!!!!!!!

 

Don't sell yourself short bro! The indecision you have regarding all of them them speaks volumes! As it stands now I've seen Greene going a lot higher then his ADP, like somewhere between the late first and mid second. I really like him but, I guess I just have way too many questions at this junction.

 

I feel the same way you do regarding McKnight, a gadget player who may show some flashes in special teams but he's not going to see a significant number of touches without some major injuries. 50 carries seems almost too generous.

 

L.T. is a really hard variable for me to decipher. On one hand it hasn't been very long since we've seen a very capable RB that could fill a very important niche role a la Chester Taylor. However, one of the cardinal sins in fantasy football is allowing the past to fully dictate your action. Then I see a blog post like LaDone. Granted it is The Post and they have papers to sell, but I also know he doesn't take criticism well and it's pretty damn early for the papers to rip into him unjustly. then you have the Jets post THIS on their front page right after L.T. has an ESPN interview where he says the Jets are going to win the SB, but even more significant is the fact he states he has a slight edge in a competition for starter.(SOURCE) It's hard for me to believe the Jets just posted that article front and center just hours later by coincidence. This really has me going back and taking a strong reevaluation of L.T. and his role going forward.

 

The other variable that has me befuddled is the O-line where again my questions abound. What happens with the guard spot Fanica vacated? Is it really that significant of a loss, if even a downgrade at all? Not to mention the Brick contract situation. I've heard reports that the contract will be done by training camp and reports that they're not even close, so what kind of time does he miss? Say he only sits for training camp, so does that necessarily mean that he'll show up for week one fat and slow? Does all that missed time compound the damage to the delicate o-line chemisty that the team is incurring from assimilating one or two new guards?

 

Then of course you have all the question marks you raised with Shonn i.e. the chest injury when he was given a full load in the playoffs and the very high fumble to carry ratio, but he does have some amazing talent and I can't just outright dismiss him.

 

To be honest I'd love to dismiss the entire team outright, but we're talking about somewhere in the neighborhood of SIX-HUNDRED carries just sitting on the table waiting to be distributed. Anyway, a thousand thank yous for the fantastic insight and I hope you'll revisit this thread frequently as we move forward and the picture becomes a bit clearer.

[Scooby's Hubby]

they drafted McKnight because they need McKnight .. Just like Greene last year, you put him in and see what he can do. He does good, you keep playing him. LT can be a good mentor for any issues that may surface.

[piratesownninjas]

Couldn't LT get a fair amount of GL carries since he has a reputation for a nose for the goal line? and also just to throw him a bone as he's gotta be up there for some career TD records.

That was vintage LT. This is old man LT.

 

they drafted McKnight because they need McKnight .. Just like Greene last year, you put him in and see what he can do. He does good, you keep playing him. LT can be a good mentor for any issues that may surface.

They drafted McKnight midway through the 4th round. His build and ability is nothing like a Greene type player. He's a niche guy, and it has been said that he has a lot of learning to do. Tomlinson in my opinion is the bridge between Leon Washington to Joe McKnight. Nothing more. As far as McKnight goes, do you know what the biggest factor in a young runningback getting on the field is? Protections and blocking. He has a ways to go before they're going to throw him in and potentially put the Sanchize at risk. Trust Rovers on this. He's got the Jets info locked up.

[griff321]

Here's a solid read on the pros/cons of Shonn Greene.

 

[griff321]

I've always felt that the loss of Faneca will actually be better for the line over the course of the season. I guess I'm not the only one, ProFootballFocus.com has the Jets O-line ranked as the best overall. They have their o-line rankings with a write-up for each team and overall the article is about the best line rankings I've yet to see.

 

[Scooby's Hubby]

How long can LT last? Do you see McKnight becoming the 3rd down back next year after learning some from LT? I like the Jets recipie and believe they are plugging in the right personel to having interchangeable parts and depth. This could be a strong team for many years to come, I like this young roster and with LT you have some good veteran leadership on the offense.

[Chief Dick]

LT can be a good mentor for any issues that may surface.

 

 

He will be able to show the team how to pout on the sidelines come playoff time.

[Scooby's Hubby]

He will be able to show the team how to pout on the sidelines come playoff time.

 

you know I was kinda thinking that in the back of my mind, but I have already pissed off the Charger fans here enough ... he was injured, you know?

[Rovers]

FAN EFFIN TASTIC!!!!!!!!

 

Don't sell yourself short bro! The indecision you have regarding all of them them speaks volumes! As it stands now I've seen Greene going a lot higher then his ADP, like somewhere between the late first and mid second. I really like him but, I guess I just have way too many questions at this junction.

 

I feel the same way you do regarding McKnight, a gadget player who may show some flashes in special teams but he's not going to see a significant number of touches without some major injuries. 50 carries seems almost too generous.

 

L.T. is a really hard variable for me to decipher. On one hand it hasn't been very long since we've seen a very capable RB that could fill a very important niche role a la Chester Taylor. However, one of the cardinal sins in fantasy football is allowing the past to fully dictate your action. Then I see a blog post like LaDone. Granted it is The Post and they have papers to sell, but I also know he doesn't take criticism well and it's pretty damn early for the papers to rip into him unjustly. then you have the Jets post THIS on their front page right after L.T. has an ESPN interview where he says the Jets are going to win the SB, but even more significant is the fact he states he has a slight edge in a competition for starter.(SOURCE) It's hard for me to believe the Jets just posted that article front and center just hours later by coincidence. This really has me going back and taking a strong reevaluation of L.T. and his role going forward.

 

The other variable that has me befuddled is the O-line where again my questions abound. What happens with the guard spot Fanica vacated? Is it really that significant of a loss, if even a downgrade at all? Not to mention the Brick contract situation. I've heard reports that the contract will be done by training camp and reports that they're not even close, so what kind of time does he miss? Say he only sits for training camp, so does that necessarily mean that he'll show up for week one fat and slow? Does all that missed time compound the damage to the delicate o-line chemisty that the team is incurring from assimilating one or two new guards?

 

Then of course you have all the question marks you raised with Shonn i.e. the chest injury when he was given a full load in the playoffs and the very high fumble to carry ratio, but he does have some amazing talent and I can't just outright dismiss him.

 

To be honest I'd love to dismiss the entire team outright, but we're talking about somewhere in the neighborhood of SIX-HUNDRED carries just sitting on the table waiting to be distributed. Anyway, a thousand thank yous for the fantastic insight and I hope you'll revisit this thread frequently as we move forward and the picture becomes a bit clearer.

 

Some really good points made here, griff. Fanecca is gone not because his run blocking was bad, but the guy can't pass block anymore. The pass protection on the left at the guard spot can't be any worse this year, regardless of who the Jets start there, whether it's Turner or the rook, Ducasse. The run blocking is not likely to be as good on the left side, but the Jets like to run right. I'd have to downgrade the o line at least slightly with Fanecca gone as far as the run game goes. He was still pretty good at pulling too.

 

The Jets will surely remain a run oriented offense, but I do look for more balance this year.

 

The Jets have several contract problems and possible TC boycotts, notabley D'Brick at LT, Mangold at C on offense. I don't think losing time will hurt either of them. The rest of the line is intact. One of my biggest worries is depth on the o line, especially at Center. IMO, Mangold is one of the 3 most important players on the roster. If Mangold gets hurt, downgrade every RB, WR, TE and Sanchez. Combine that with Greene's injury history and the addition of LT and questions about ball distribution... I think taking any Jets offensive player carries risk this year. I have no such concerns with Jets IDP selections.

 

The homer in me would love to draft Greene, but I doubt he'll be there when I would roll the dice on him in most redrafts. He could be a beast, but the risk is IMO fairly high.

[Rovers]

An article on Greene from the NY Daily News:

 

*********

RB Shonn Greene doesn't plan on changing his battering style anytime soon »

 

By Manish Mehta

 

Shonn Greene shot me that I-know-you-didn’t-say-what-I-thought-you-said look when I broached the topic about tweaking his running style to better preserve his body.

 

The Jets have a stingy defense and a promising young quarterback, but Greene is likely the most irreplaceable piece to its championship puzzle.

 

For a run-heavy team with Super Bowl aspirations, it’s imperative that the bruising second-year running back stays healthy. So, I proposed a few hypothetical scenarios designed to avoid contact and keep Greene on the field for the duration of the season.

 

Each of my suggestions was summarily dismissed.

 

“We don’t run out of bounds,” Greene told me. “I’ve been taught that all my life…. I don’t think that’s going to help the way I play by doing that. If I just go out and do what I do, everything else will take care of itself.”

 

“That’s what I do,” he added. “I play the game of football. You can’t worry, ‘Oh, what if I do this? What if I run out of bounds?’ No, that’s not the game of football to me. Football is a hard-nosed game.”

 

The mere mention of avoiding contact may be blasphemous to Greene, but it’s no secret that the Jets middling offense from a year ago will lean on him with Thomas Jones out of the picture now. Don’t be fooled by the myriad pass catching options like Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, Dustin Keller, Jerricho Cotchery and LaDainian Tomlinson.

 

At the core, the Jets are still a run-first team.

 

“When it comes down to it, everybody knows the New York Jets are a ground and pound football team,” Greene said. “That’s what Coach (Rex Ryan) always talks about. We got all these pretty guys on the outside now that can help us. But when it gets down to it, we are a running team.”

 

So, it’s crucial that Greene remains on the field after getting nicked up with rib and ankle injuries during his rookie season. To be fair, Greene’s battering running style had nothing to do with the ankle injury suffered during training camp -- he hurt it during a pass protection drill -- but his hard-charging ways could be cause for concern.

 

“You have to teach him when to avoid, when to go down and when not to take on three people just so he can get through a season,” running backs coach Anthony Lynn told me. “That’s an education process.”

 

In many ways, Lynn wants to tread lightly to ensure that Greene doesn’t sacrifice his aggressive style for the sake of preserving himself.

 

“He hasn’t changed very much at all,” Lynn said. “I like his style. I don’t want him to change very much at all. He’s going to take some shots, but he also gave a lot of shots. So, I like that attitude he has running the football. He has great body lean -- the guy’s always falling forward for extra yards. But there are a couple times when you have to take a guy on the edge and maybe not so much down the middle because I do want to get him through 16 games.”

 

Lynn admitted he won’t belabor the point.

 

“You just make him aware of it,” Lynn said. “As guys play and run in this league, they get wiser and more aware. It’s something that they learn over time.”

 

Greene’s value to the team was evident by the end of his rookie season.

There were also few surprises with Greene last season. When he was in the game (regular season and postseason), he touched the ball 65.6 percent of the time.

 

Reduced to simplest terms, Greene needs to stay healthy for the Jets to reach its lofty expectations. To that end, LaDainian Tomlinson plans to give Greene some sagely advice in the near future.

 

“That takes time,” Tomlinson told me. “He’s a young guy. That stuff happens with experience as he sees how things are going with his body. You always make sure you pass along knowledge to a guy like Shonn. Sometimes if you don’t have another guy, you do learn on your own. But that’s what I’m here for… to talk to him about things like that.”

 

Maybe so, but will Greene heed his advice?

 

The Jets’ Super Bowl hopes may depend on it.

 

 

NOTE: Greene's weight is a non-issue as far as the coaching staff is concerned. He gained 11 pounds after the season, but has come back down to 233 pounds. He was 232 during last year's playoffs.

***********

At least Greene has people talking to him about learning to avoid avoidable punishment. As stated in the article, will he listen?

[BearBroncos]

At least Greene has people talking to him about learning to avoid avoidable punishment. As stated in the article, will he listen?

 

 

He will... eventually. Hopefully not before a major injury. I like his tough nose running style. That's what football used to be, but, that also makes for a short career in this day and age. Playing smart is key whilst be able to take a hard hit. Look at AP in his style. I honestly think if Greene studies the game and listens, he absolutely could be as good, if not better than an AP.

[Rovers]

He will... eventually. Hopefully not before a major injury. I like his tough nose running style. That's what football used to be, but, that also makes for a short career in this day and age. Playing smart is key whilst be able to take a hard hit. Look at AP in his style. I honestly think if Greene studies the game and listens, he absolutely could be as good, if not better than an AP.

 

Greene has nowhere near AP's speed or elusiveness. He probably has more power, and is more difficult to bring down, but I don't see Greene's upside getting into the elite category. If he stays healthy, top ten really ought to be a lock on a run oriented offense. Top five, maybe, but elite? No. He isn't a real good outside runner, but is fast enough for the odd 50 yard TD. TD's like that are most likely to come on short yardage situations were the D plays up and gets beat. He just will never be as explosive as an AP is.

 

Personally, I have always favored the tough to bring down north south RB type, which Greene is, but that is from a team standpoint, not a FF viewpoint. Greene is a nice match for the Jets' power blocking schemes. He'd not be near as good behind a zone blocking O line. Honestly, I think he is a one dimensional RB, but very good at the dimension he can flourish in.

[darin3]

Don't have the time to read all the posts here in this thread, but just wanted to mention that I'm kinda diggin' LT as a value pick this season. I fancy LT as a guy who has a ton of pride and works hard in the off-season to get his body (and mind) in the optimum position to play football. Rex Ryan and his coaching cohorts will use LT if he's in the condition to help the team win. No knock on Shonn Greene, since he looks like a solid NFL RB, but there's something deep down inside me that thinks that LT has something left, and he might just be a surprise.