Explain this one to me

[BARF]

I bought the Fantasy Index yesterday and here is something I found odd while looking at it last night.

 

BFD site Louis Tranquilli is one of the "experts" ranking players

 

If you have the book open up your fantasy index to page 41

 

Take a look at Tranquilli's rankings

 

For his overall rankings he goes 1-Rodgers, 2-Brees, 3-CJ, 4-Peterson, 5-Ray Rice, 6-Andre Johnson (13-MDJ by the way)

 

In any event now turn to pages 58/59 their mock draft

 

Tranquilli has the 7th pick........he took Andre Johnson while Drew Brees will still on the board.

 

So how does he have Brees ranked #2 overall and bypasses him with the #7 pick for the #6 ranked guy on his board ?

 

How does he have Rodgers/Brees ranked 1-2 is beyond me. I am going to guess if he draws a top 2 pick in one of those high stakes leagues he plays in he is not passing up CJ, Peterson or Ray Rice for Rodgers or Brees.

 

Ok now say he really does believe that Rodgers/Brees are the top 2 players in fantasy...well if that is the case how can you pass 1 of them up at the 7th pick ?

 

Brees could easily be available in round 2, whereas Andre would not. It makes sense to me.

 

 

It makes sense to me ,, I have Alex Smith ranked as the 5th QB this year and no way in the world would I draft him this early in the year because I know he will still be there after 16 to 20 other QB's are taken. So I can grab him in the 14th round after I fill the rest of my roster.

 

UGH! Really? 5th? Is this the same Alex Smith that didn't even have a steady starting job last season?... or did Romo, Schaub, or Brady change their name(s)?

[BARF]

It makes sense to me ,, I have Alex Smith ranked as the 5th QB this year and no way in the world would I draft him this early in the year because I know he will still be there after 16 to 20 other QB's are taken. So I can grab him in the 14th round after I fill the rest of my roster.

 

Also... shouldn't your name be MustHaveBeenDrunk?... grammar fail.

[Delicious_bass]

Brees could easily be available in round 2, whereas Andre would not. It makes sense to me.

Very true. But (that being the case) Brees should not be ranked ahead of AJ in the overall rankings then.

 

Actually, let me back up a bit. I guess before we can truly discuss this we need to know exactly what the creator of the rankings is trying to accomplish with his list. Are his rankings based purely on expected points scored or does he factor in scarcity of talent/value/etc as well as flat out points scored? Are his rankings more an ordered projection summary or are they to be taken as advice on whom to draft where?

 

Now, obviously any experienced, savvy fantasy player understands the draft/auction is fluid and you need to be flexible/clever and spot value/trends/etc. That said, when it comes to listing a player #1 or #2 OVERALL, you're basically saying there are no circumstances you'd take someone else before them, IMO. Or, as others have said, the ranking really is useless.

Edited July 6, 2010 by Delicious_bass

[tazinib1]

Also... shouldn't your name be MustHaveBeenDrunk?... grammar fail.

 

 

Calling Scooby and Scooby's Hubby

[MikesVikes]

Draft strategy doesn't have to equal player rankings....heck even if you had 2 WRs ranked 24 and 25 there can be an argument for taking the 30th WR over them depending on the makeup of your team....just cause things are black and white(rankings) doesn't mean they are black and white (drafting)...

 

I know I am pretty much on an island by myself with this stance but I don't like rankings at all...I don't think you can look past the makeup of your team and if you draft strictly by rankings that is what you are doing.

 

That is a good explanation although in the first round, your team probably doesn't have any makeup yet. I have the magazine at home and didn't notice that big discrepancy in drafting and ranking for myself yet. Here is what the Fanatasy Football Index says about their mock. --> The teams assembled in our mock drafts and auctions will compete during the season in maintenance-free, best-ball leagues -- no trades, waiver pickups or other roster moves.

 

Most leagues aren't a best-ball league with no trades, waivers or other roster moves. So a ranking should exemplify most leagues and the mock is not the same as most leagues.

[Jrick35]

Which players were taken 1 - 6?

 

How many teams were drafting?

 

Did he get Brees or Rodgers in later rounds of the draft?

[delusions of grandeur]

Very true. But (that being the case) Brees should not be ranked ahead of AJ in the overall rankings then.

 

Actually, let me back up a bit. I guess before we can truly discuss this we need to know exactly what the creator of the rankings is trying to accomplish with his list. Are his rankings based purely on expected points scored or does he factor in scarcity of talent/value/etc as well as flat out points scored? Are his rankings more an ordered projection summary or are they to be taken as advice on whom to draft where?

 

Now, obviously any experienced, savvy fantasy player understands the draft/auction is fluid and you need to be flexible/clever and spot value/trends/etc. That said, when it comes to listing a player #1 or #2 OVERALL, you're basically saying there are no circumstances you'd take someone else before them, IMO. Or, as others have said, the ranking really is useless.

 

True, but I think that MJD being ranked 13th speaks more about the author's credibility (or lack thereof) than it does about what he's basing his assessment on...

Edited July 6, 2010 by delusions of granduer

[keggerz]

True, but I think that MJD being ranked 13th speaks more about the author's credibility (or lack thereof) than it does about what he's basing his assessment on...

really?

[delusions of grandeur]

really?

 

At the risk of being discredited myself.... ummm.... Yes?

 

Are you disagreeing, because I cannot fathom MJD being 7 spots behind the other stud 3 down backs, top QBs and top WR.

 

Only way I see it is if the league is QB/WR heavy, with this group:

 

8.Wayne

9. Fitz

10. Moss

11. Manning

12. Gore?

 

I definitely don't think he should be that far behind the other top backs that are going at the top. Any reason why he shouldn't be drafted right in front of/behind Ray Rice?

Edited July 7, 2010 by delusions of granduer

[keggerz]

At the risk of being discredited myself.... ummm.... Yes?

 

Are you disagreeing, because I cannot fathom MJD being 7 spots behind the other stud 3 down backs, top QBs and top WR.

 

Only way I see it is if the league is QB/WR heavy, with this group:

 

8.Wayne

9. Fitz

10. Moss

11. Manning

12. Gore?

 

I definitely don't think he should be that far behind the other top backs that are going at the top. Any reason why he shouldn't be drafted right in front of/behind Ray Rice?

 

let's just say that I see certain signs with regards to MJD that has him basically as a do not draft player for me.

[tazinib1]

let's just say that I see certain signs with regards to MJD that has him basically as a do not draft player for me.

 

 

 

There is no way in hell you are getting off that easily.

[keggerz]

 

 

There is no way in hell you are getting off that easily.

I am contemplating writing an article on it so I don't want to give much away

 

but I will leave you with this:

 

1st 10 games: 21.6 point per game scored

last 6 games: 14.7 points per game scored

that is a 32% decrease in PPG

 

1st 10 games 4.8 YPC

last 6 games 3.9 YPC

that is a 19% decline in YPC

 

1st 10 games 1.3 Rushing TDs/game (13 rushing TDs for the mathematically challenged)

last 6 games .33 Rushing TDs/game (2 rushing TD for the mathematically challenged)

that is a decrease of 77% in rushing TDs/game

 

Now many may ask why the first 10 games vs the last 6 games?

Well that is because after 10 games MJD had accumulated 194 carries....

Now you ask why is that important well that is because MJDs previous career high

in rushing attempts in a season was 197(of course prior to last year)...

 

Better?

 

EDIT: and I probably should change my "do not draft" to a "draft and trade early type player"...no way

I would want to ride him to the seasons end if he is going to have to approach or eclipse the 300 carry

plateau

Edited July 7, 2010 by keggerz

[tazinib1]

I am contemplating writing an article on it so I don't want to give much away

 

but I will leave you with this:

 

1st 10 games:

21.6 point per game scored

last 6 games: 14.7 points per game scored

that is a 32% decrease in PPG

 

1st 10 games 4.8 YPC

last 6 games 3.9 YPC

that is a 19% decline in YPC

 

1st 10 games 1.3 Rushing TDs/game (13 rushing TDs for the mathematically challenged)

last 6 games .33 Rushing TDs/game (2 rushing TD for the mathematically challenged)

that is a decrease of 77% in rushing TDs/game

 

Now many may ask why the first 10 games vs the last 6 games?

Well that is because after 10 games MJD had accumulated 194 carries....

Now you ask why is that important well that is because MJDs previous career high

in rushing attempts in a season was 197(of course prior to last year)...

 

Better?

 

Better but it still doesn't warrant a 10 foot pole tag.

[keggerz]

Better but it still doesn't warrant a 10 foot pole tag.

to each his own

[MikesVikes]

Better but it still doesn't warrant a 10 foot pole tag.

 

Looks like he needs a toe tag.

 

I didn't like it when he was so highly valued last year. He would've disappointed all drafters that took him with a first round selection. The Jags aren't a good team right now and MJD needs to score some tds to have value.

[BARF]

I am contemplating writing an article on it so I don't want to give much away

 

but I will leave you with this:

 

1st 10 games: 21.6 point per game scored

last 6 games: 14.7 points per game scored

that is a 32% decrease in PPG

 

1st 10 games 4.8 YPC

last 6 games 3.9 YPC

that is a 19% decline in YPC

 

1st 10 games 1.3 Rushing TDs/game (13 rushing TDs for the mathematically challenged)

last 6 games .33 Rushing TDs/game (2 rushing TD for the mathematically challenged)

that is a decrease of 77% in rushing TDs/game

 

Now many may ask why the first 10 games vs the last 6 games?

Well that is because after 10 games MJD had accumulated 194 carries....

Now you ask why is that important well that is because MJDs previous career high

in rushing attempts in a season was 197(of course prior to last year)...

 

Better?

 

EDIT: and I probably should change my "do not draft" to a "draft and trade early type player"...no way

I would want to ride him to the seasons end if he is going to have to approach or eclipse the 300 carry

plateau

 

Let me first get out the fact that I'm not an MJD fan.

 

Secondly, although I applaud your research and math... you're basing this off of one season, correct? How 'bout you do the same thing for the last 3 seasons then I may be swayed.

[keggerz]

Let me first get out the fact that I'm not an MJD fan.

 

Secondly, although I applaud your research and math... you're basing this off of one season, correct? How 'bout you do the same thing for the last 3 seasons then I may be swayed.

well that is just it...last year there were many (me included) that were worried about the fact that MJD NEVER had to shoulder the entire load before...and actually the most carries he ever had in his career (college and pros...not sure about HS) was in 2008 when he logged 197 carries....with that now in mind there were those skeptics like me that thought MJD would struggle...while some will say he didnt the truth of the matter is that he did sorta hit a wall...couple that with the fact that the average career length for a NFL RB is 2.6 years(read that earlier this year but cant remember where) and knowing just how difficult it is for a RB to reproduce top 10 RB type numbers you can color me skeptical about MJD again.

 

 

EDIT: and if you had been around a while here you would realize that if there were 3 yrs to use I surely would have....however, sometimes if you wait for 3 years of data you will end up talking about what happened and how you got caught holding the bag vs taking some key stats....sometimes it is better to be ahead of the data.....oh and if you want 3 yrs of previous data just look at MJDs YPC the previous 3 years and thru the 1st 10 games vs the last 6 games...like I said in an earlier post...I am looking at writing an article on this so I still have some other stats and such that I am going to hold back for a bit until I decide on what I am going to do.

Edited July 7, 2010 by keggerz

[BARF]

well that is just it...last year there were many (me included) that were worried about the fact that MJD NEVER had to shoulder the entire load before...and actually the most carries he ever had in his career (college and pros...not sure about HS) was in 2008 when he logged 197 carries....with that now in mind there were those skeptics like me that thought MJD would struggle...while some will say he didnt the truth of the matter is that he did sorta hit a wall...couple that with the fact that the average career length for a NFL RB is 2.6 years(read that earlier this year but cant remember where) and knowing just how difficult it is for a RB to reproduce top 10 RB type numbers you can color me skeptical about MJD again.

 

Well put. Point made.

[MikesVikes]

Let me first get out the fact that I'm not an MJD fan.

 

Secondly, although I applaud your research and math... you're basing this off of one season, correct? How 'bout you do the same thing for the last 3 seasons then I may be swayed.

 

You have a point but it looks like you might miss out on a few waiver wires transaction in your league if the only thing you're looking at is three years of information. I'm guessing that with this logic that eleven people in your league would be in a position to pick up a Jamaal Charles off the waiver wire before you would even consider it.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Also... shouldn't your name be MustHaveBeenDrunk?... grammar fail.

 

 

NO !!

that would be the way a sober man would say it ,, hence the name

why do I always need too explain this to the noobs ?

[MTSuper7]

You have a point but it looks like you might miss out on a few waiver wires transaction in your league if the only thing you're looking at is three years of information. I'm guessing that with this logic that eleven people in your league would be in a position to pick up a Jamaal Charles off the waiver wire before you would even consider it.

 

Flawed analogy IMO, because there is a lot more risk involved with who you pick in the first round of the draft vs. taking a flyer on a waiver wire hero like Charles

[MTSuper7]

After reading Keg's post, I checked MJD's schedule last season just to see if there was some sort of anomaly (i.e. he was scheduled overly difficult matchups those six weeks). But it doesn't look that way at all. He had games vs. HOU and CLE in there and didn't do much vs. either.

[MikesVikes]

Flawed analogy IMO, because there is a lot more risk involved with who you pick in the first round of the draft vs. taking a flyer on a waiver wire hero like Charles

 

Not having three years of information as sufficient evidence to make a decision is flawed, imo. That goes for drafting or roster decisions.

Edited July 7, 2010 by MikesVikes

[delusions of grandeur]

well that is just it...last year there were many (me included) that were worried about the fact that MJD NEVER had to shoulder the entire load before...and actually the most carries he ever had in his career (college and pros...not sure about HS) was in 2008 when he logged 197 carries....with that now in mind there were those skeptics like me that thought MJD would struggle...while some will say he didnt the truth of the matter is that he did sorta hit a wall...couple that with the fact that the average career length for a NFL RB is 2.6 years(read that earlier this year but cant remember where) and knowing just how difficult it is for a RB to reproduce top 10 RB type numbers you can color me skeptical about MJD again.

 

 

EDIT: and if you had been around a while here you would realize that if there were 3 yrs to use I surely would have....however, sometimes if you wait for 3 years of data you will end up talking about what happened and how you got caught holding the bag vs taking some key stats....sometimes it is better to be ahead of the data.....oh and if you want 3 yrs of previous data just look at MJDs YPC the previous 3 years and thru the 1st 10 games vs the last 6 games...like I said in an earlier post...I am looking at writing an article on this so I still have some other stats and such that I am going to hold back for a bit until I decide on what I am going to do.

 

As an owner of MJD the last 2 seasons, I really haven't seen the durability concerns or dropoff that you're referring to.. What I've seen is a guy who is not big or shifty enough to be "matchup-proof", particularly not if defenses key in on him and Garrard's poor play causes them to do it even more... Looking at his individual game totals, it seems to show a consistently inconsistent year, and to me it raises other red flags besides durability concerns.

 

Although some of those teams might be ones that he should be able to run well against, any team can shut you down if they're looking for the run, and like I said, MJD's skillset is not such that he can just run over/around everyone all the time... I also wonder if his bad final stretch was partly a response to what he did in the first ten weeks.

 

Now if you're talking some kind of performance league, such as one with 100 yard bonuses, then yes, he might be a boom-or-bust player; but in PPR he gets a bump nearly every week, is a consistent TD scorer, and his big games tend to outweigh the occasional mediocre ones (at least to me anyway).... So could it maybe simply be a matter of pairing him with other more consistent skill players on your squad?

 

But as for his durability, MJD's in-season conditioning is impeccable, and to me it's shown. I don't remember any reports of MJD being banged up last season... He simply got outplayed some weeks on an offense where he bears the target on his chest, IMO.

 

 

To me the serious concern is the offense surrounding him, as I watch Garrard kill drives with INTs and bad passes. If that improves, then I think MJD becomes a surer thing, and justifies him being drafted ahead of Rice and Gore. If not, then I fear you're right that we might have seen MJD's upside peak at week 10 last year. JMO though.

Edited July 7, 2010 by delusions of granduer

[BARF]

NO !!

that would be the way a sober man would say it ,, hence the name

why do I always need too explain this to the noobs ?

 

Riiiiiiight.