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Interesting article on QB success in the NFL


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John Lopez at SI and the Rule of 26-27-60

 

Interesting. Maybe not 100% predictive, but interesting none the less.

 

...

 

Call it the Rule of 26-27-60.

 

Here is the gist of it: If an NFL prospect scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there's a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level.

 

There are, of course, exceptions. If NFL general managers always could measure heart, determination and other intangibles, then Tom Brady would not have been drafted in the sixth round.

 

But short of breaking down tape, conducting personal interviews and analyzing every number and every snap of every game, remember the Rule of 26-27-60 the next time a hotshot prospect comes down the pike.

 

Since 1998, these are some of the NFL quarterbacks who aced all three parts of the Rule of 26-27-60: Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb, Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Stafford.

 

....

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I took these numbers and threw out Ryan Fitzpatrick (he's only in there b/c of his perfect Wonderlic score), looking at them in two different ways, resulting in an X Score and a Y Score for each player:

 

X Score = [(Starts x 4) * (Comp % / 100)] ^ (Wonderlic / 48)

Y Score = average ((Wonderlic - 26) / 26 , (Starts - 27) / 27 , (Comp % - 60) * 10 / 27)

 

*****************

 

Logic behind the X Score --- live game experience is more important than completion %; intelligence is not a linear function; converting starts into quarters played

Logic behind the Y Score --- standardize Wonderlic, Starts and Comp % across sample size (vs. authors' targets for each statistic), with an adjustment for completion % vs. the other two

 

*****************

 

The scores are intended to be direction oriented, and not magnitude oriented.

 

*****************

 

Steps to Ranking:

1) Normalize X Scores

2) Normalize Y Scores

3) Multiply Normalized X and Normalized Y Scores

4) Rank

 

******************

 

Ranking:

 

0.72 Eli Manning

0.55 Tony Romo

0.46 Philip Rivers

0.41 Matt Schaub

0.26 Peyton Manning

0.24 Kevin Kolb

0.14 Matt Ryan

0.14 Ben Roethlisberger

0.13 Drew Brees

0.08 Kyle Orton

0.07 Joe Flacco

0.06 Jay Cutler

0.04 Tim Couch

0.04 JaMarcus Russell

0.04 David Carr

0.03 Joey Harrington

0.02 Duante Culpepper

0.01 Akili Smith

0.00 Michael Vick

0.00 Ryan Leaf

0.00 Vince Young

 

******************

 

Analysis of Ranking:

 

Guys scoring above 0.10 are pretty decent bets.

Guys scoring below 0.05 are pretty lousy bets.

 

Again, the scores are direction oriented, rather than magnitude oriented (i.e., Eli Manning is not nearly 3x the QB that Peyton is).

Edited by muck
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I took these numbers and threw out Ryan Fitzpatrick (he's only in there b/c of his perfect Wonderlic score), looking at them in two different ways, resulting in an X Score and a Y Score for each player:

 

X Score = [(Starts x 4) * (Comp % / 100)] ^ (Wonderlic / 48)

Y Score = average ((Wonderlic - 26) / 26 , (Starts - 27) / 27 , (Comp % - 60) * 10 / 27)

 

*****************

 

Logic behind the X Score --- live game experience is more important than completion %; intelligence is not a linear function; converting starts into quarters played

Logic behind the Y Score --- standardize Wonderlic, Starts and Comp % across sample size (vs. authors' targets for each statistic), with an adjustment for completion % vs. the other two

 

*****************

 

The scores are intended to be direction oriented, and not magnitude oriented.

 

*****************

 

Steps to Ranking:

1) Normalize X Scores

2) Normalize Y Scores

3) Multiply Normalized X and Normalized Y Scores

4) Rank

 

******************

 

Ranking:

 

0.72 Eli Manning

0.55 Tony Romo

0.46 Philip Rivers

0.41 Matt Schaub

0.26 Peyton Manning

0.24 Kevin Kolb

0.14 Matt Ryan

0.14 Ben Roethlisberger

0.13 Drew Brees

0.08 Kyle Orton

0.07 Joe Flacco

0.06 Jay Cutler

0.04 Tim Couch

0.04 JaMarcus Russell

0.04 David Carr

0.03 Joey Harrington

0.02 Duante Culpepper

0.01 Akili Smith

0.00 Michael Vick

0.00 Ryan Leaf

0.00 Vince Young

 

******************

 

Analysis of Ranking:

 

Guys scoring above 0.10 are pretty decent bets.

Guys scoring below 0.05 are pretty lousy bets.

 

Again, the scores are direction oriented, rather than magnitude oriented (i.e., Eli Manning is not nearly 3x the QB that Peyton is).

 

So do you like Eli Manning better than Kevin Kolb? Sorry to ask an advice question, but it'd a logical follow-up question.

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The authors built upon previous closely related topics.

 

I think Fantasy Outsiders did it with starts and completion percentages. Pretty sure Bill Parcell's rules for QBs were along the lines of starts, completion percentage, and few other things too.

 

Always fun to read more research projects.

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As a quick aside, if anyone has these three stats (wonderlic, college starts, college completion %), that'd be great. Also, if you have # of passes thrown in college, that'd be great too.

 

Anyhow, if anyone has that info and emails it to me, I'll run some analysis and post it here. It'd be interesting to see how guys like John Elway, Joe Montana and Dan Marino stack up against,say, Matt Stafford, Tom Brady and Matt Cassell.

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