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Strategerizing… what’s the new angle this year?


Thews40
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I don't know of anyone that would draft 3 RB's with their first 3 picks. :wacko:

 

Regardlesss, I pretty much NEVER go into a draft pigeonholed to a particular strategy that would have me taking a particular position with a certain pick. Drafts are way too fluid and unpredictable. You have to be flexible enough to draft one round at a time, and rework your roster as you go.

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I don't know of anyone that would draft 3 RB's with their first 3 picks. :wacko:

 

Regardlesss, I pretty much NEVER go into a draft pigeonholed to a particular strategy that would have me taking a particular position with a certain pick. Drafts are way too fluid and unpredictable. You have to be flexible enough to draft one round at a time, and rework your roster as you go.

Why not? Especially in leagues where you can start 3. Even if you can't, if you take 2 RB's with your first two picks, and there is a guy left that you feel is a stud, and my have slid because everybody else is taking other positions, take him! You'll be able to trade him for gold anytime you want.

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Why not? Especially in leagues where you can start 3. Even if you can't, if you take 2 RB's with your first two picks, and there is a guy left that you feel is a stud, and my have slid because everybody else is taking other positions, take him! You'll be able to trade him for gold anytime you want.

 

I just like staying flexible and balanced throughout the draft, and going RB that hard early forces my hand later. I want to be able grab value when I see it and not worry that I have already filled that spot.

Edited by Company of Heroes
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I just can't bring myself to subscribe to a 2 TE theory. I've always had pretty good luck taking a couple fliers on TE's late. If they don't end up working out, I trade one of my extra RB's or QB's for one. The strength of my teams is almost always at RB & QB, and I've been fortunate enough to have a fairly high success rate. TE's will have games of 3 catches for 30 yards. If you draft your TE really early, you probably lose that week. Stud QB's and RB's are a lot less likely to have a game so low.

I guess I should point out the sliding scale where TE's get 1 PPR, WR's get .75and RB's get .5. I like this rule, and when you look at the stats at the end of the year,the Gates/Clark/Witten type of guys are way ahead. Even with an even PPR at 1, the drop off at the end of the year from the top 5 vs. the bottom 5 is pretty steep. People don't like to trade stud TE's because they paid for them with a third or fourth round pick, and while there's always the TE that hits one week with 2 TD and 125 yards, most weeks he's 30 yards and a catch. In win/lose formats (vs. high points), peak games aren't as groovy as the guys that are targets on every play and get a ton of catches. The thing that you roll the dice with is shifting the draft, and if that doesn't happen you still wind up with trade bait. If Gates is your extra TE, you'll get what you need if someone did go RB/RB/RB and wound up with an extra. It's not that this is the magic draft strategy and it works every year, but IMO TE's will go higher this year than in recent years past.

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I just like staying flexible and balanced throughout the draft, and going RB that hard early forces my hand later. I want to be able grab value when I see it and not worry that I have already filled that spot.

 

 

So, you are saying that if the value pick as you see it is an RB three picks in a row, you would pass on said value merely because you have picked RB already?

 

Which is more important, focusing on getting the value as you see it, or picking from different positions to to stay "flexible and balanced"?

 

Obviusly these are not neccessarily mutually exclusive goals, but there will obviously be times where each would lead towards different picks, just curious which goal is the greater importance.

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So, you are saying that if the value pick as you see it is an RB three picks in a row, you would pass on said value merely because you have picked RB already?

 

Which is more important, focusing on getting the value as you see it, or picking from different positions to to stay "flexible and balanced"?

 

Obviusly these are not neccessarily mutually exclusive goals, but there will obviously be times where each would lead towards different picks, just curious which goal is the greater importance.

 

Didn't say I'd never go 3 RB first, just that I try to avoid it. If the RB value is worth it, I'd definitely go for it. In reality, it rarely happens.

 

But if I go 3 RBs that early, I probably won't go back to that position until rounds 8-10 so that I can address other starting needs. That really leaves me chasing at other positions.

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Obviusly these are not neccessarily mutually exclusive goals, but there will obviously be times where each would lead towards different picks, just curious which goal is the greater importance.

 

To answer your question, I probably look for value across positions to stay flexible instead of loading up at one spot. Unless the value pick is extreme.

Edited by Company of Heroes
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Didn't say I'd never go 3 RB first, just that I try to avoid it. If the RB value is worth it, I'd definitely go for it. In reality, it rarely happens.

 

But if I go 3 RBs that early, I probably won't go back to that position until rounds 8-10 so that I can address other starting needs. That really leaves me chasing at other positions.

 

 

To answer your question, I probably look for value across positions to stay flexible instead of loading up at one spot. Unless the value pick is extreme.

 

 

Agreed on all accounts.

 

I've just seen in the last year or two such an extreme swing towards loadfing up on WRs and taking Qbs early that the RB value is sitting there more and more often, and I have found it very tempting to swing for the fences and load up at RB in some of these leagues where you can start 3 RBs.

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Agreed on all accounts.

 

I've just seen in the last year or two such an extreme swing towards loadfing up on WRs and taking Qbs early that the RB value is sitting there more and more often, and I have found it very tempting to swing for the fences and load up at RB in some of these leagues where you can start 3 RBs.

Agreed. It seems SO many fellas have bought hard into the "do the opposite" strategy (that said to take the WR while everyone was taking RB) that you can now argue that "doing the opposite" is grabbing the RBs while the others are taking WR and (to a lesser extent) QB. I suspect this will continue to go cyclic like this as long as the majority of people playing fantasy are the types to simply follow suit when there is a run on a position and/or allow themselves to be easily influenced by short term "trends". As always, the owner that can spot the values the sheep pass by will do well.

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I don't know of anyone that would draft 3 RB's with their first 3 picks. :tup:

 

Why not?

 

 

Ok. Let me rephrase that. I don't know of anyone that would PLAN to draft 3 RB's with their first 3 picks, the way that Thews is saying that the non-elite FFers will do in order to land them apparently in 6th place. The dropoff in talent level at the RB position doesn't really support that kind of plan in most leagues. Maybe 10 years ago that would work, but it's just not very common now for obvious reason.

 

And yes, I guess if you have a league that allows you to start 3 RB's then certainly go to town. Or a league that drafts rosters of only RB's... I guess that would be an exception as well. :wacko:

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If Thews had 11 teams in my league, then I might consider drafting three RBs. :wacko:

 

I'd like to see those 11 TE filled teams.

 

Seriously, would Thews stick to his guns regardless of what the other 11 owners did? What if they all thought like Thews does? Of course nobody would draft Bo Scaife before Shonne Greene or Brandon Jacobs I would hope. But if you're absolutely committed to taking two tight ends, who knows?

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If Thews had 11 teams in my league, then I might consider drafting three RBs. :wacko:

 

I'd like to see those 11 TE filled teams.

 

Seriously, would Thews stick to his guns regardless of what the other 11 owners did? What if they all thought like Thews does? Of course nobody would draft Bo Scaife before Shonne Greene or Brandon Jacobs I would hope. But if you're absolutely committed to taking two tight ends, who knows?

Don’t be facetious damnit. One has to have a plan and be able to shift. In one QB heavy (6pts/TD) league years ago, I drafted three QB’s in the top 6. Did it work out… not really, but not too bad. My thought process at the time was to draft high QB’s when others were expecting them to be there, and then they’d pull the trigger on what was left and shift the RB’s I wanted back up. The point being, RB is the focus on most teams, and if you focus on everything else first and take what you can get at RB later, if the draft shifts it can work. Nothing is guaranteed, except for injury, and you have to roll the dice if you’re going to try something unexpected. Just look at the ADP and see how close your draft goes. It's all too predictable when compared against the ADP, but if your league rules skew the value of position, there is a valid reason to deviate from the norm… gotta have balls.. .take same heat.

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Agreed. It seems SO many fellas have bought hard into the "do the opposite" strategy (that said to take the WR while everyone was taking RB) that you can now argue that "doing the opposite" is grabbing the RBs while the others are taking WR and (to a lesser extent) QB. I suspect this will continue to go cyclic like this as long as the majority of people playing fantasy are the types to simply follow suit when there is a run on a position and/or allow themselves to be easily influenced by short term "trends". As always, the owner that can spot the values the sheep pass by will do well.

 

Breaking the run when there might be a run on one position is not just based on doing the opposite. When there is a run, the value in that position is lowered, it has to be. That means that there is better value in picking another position, a value player that has dropped 5 or 6 spots because there was a run.

 

Typically, runs follow "droughts". Owners may go on a WR run after there was an RB run. That is often because they need that WR2 and see them going off the board. They don't want to be left with two 3WR types in a start three lineup. I have both broken and continued runs. I might take a lower value player at one position if I am solid at all the others. Why draft a 3rd or 4th RB when you only have one WR?

 

Again, scoring and lineup rules dictate strategy. I have loaded up on one position because of value before, but it's risky. you take a gamble that you will be able to trade from that strength and shore up a weaker position. It doesn't always work. you need someone willing to trade. Some owners see you have a surplus at RB and figure they can lowball you.

 

I prefer to have my starters drafted as early as possible, and worry about trading later on. I look for some balance across all positions first and foremost. Then, I hope I guess right on a later pick, eg; Ray Rice, S Smith, V Davis last year. Loading up on one position makes very little sense to me. I would NEVER draft 3 RB's in the first 3 rounds. Even if I could start all 3.

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I don't know of anyone that would draft 3 RB's with their first 3 picks. :wacko:

 

Regardlesss, I pretty much NEVER go into a draft pigeonholed to a particular strategy that would have me taking a particular position with a certain pick. Drafts are way too fluid and unpredictable. You have to be flexible enough to draft one round at a time, and rework your roster as you go.

 

 

I went RB/RB/RB once and it worked out extremely well....

 

you would have to be there to see it...and I wouldn't encourage anyone else to do this, but the scenario called for it since there was too much value left on the board with the 3rd round pick....

 

I ended up having 3 stud RB's and then I Muto'd the rest of my draft...

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I went WR WR RB/QB the last two years and won championships. This year is a little different and I am looking to draft early and get a RB. The past few years I was able to grab two top teir WRs and that is the only reason it worked. There is a thread about it, Brentastic had an amazing stat on 3 WRs scoring on avg with the top 10 RBs in PPR leagues over the last 3years. Fitz, Moss and Wayne. I was always able to get two of those guys and surprisingly at first it worked just as he said.

 

This year aside from AJ I dont see a real consistent guy, maybe Wayne again? Even the Elite guys have huge question marks and that goes against what made that theory work so well-consistency.

 

I figure go after Rice/Gore and then grab a WR in the second.

 

if i have pick 1-5 in my ppr league i will grab, peterson, johnsom, mjd, gore, or rice. they are great ppr backs that are gonna get over 200 carries. andre johnson is definately the number one ppr wr. though i expect to see moss step it up this year because he is in a contract year. one thing i will do different this year is if i can get rodgers, p. manning, or brees in the second round, i won't hesitate. don't forget brady is in a contract year along with his reciever. my stratagy this year is get one of the above mentioned runningbacks, toss in an elite quarterback, then pick and choose out of the rest of the even playing field and cruise to a championship. don't forget, the number one tightend will have more touchdowns than most of the top 10 receivers this year.

Edited by eags
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if i have pick 1-5 in my ppr league i will grab, peterson, johnsom, mjd, gore, or rice. they are great ppr backs that are gonna get over 200 carries. andre johnson is definately the number one ppr wr. though i expect to see moss step it up this year because he is in a contract year. one thing i will do different this year is if i can get rodgers, p. manning, or brees in the second round, i won't hesitate. don't forget brady is in a contract year along with his reciever. my stratagy this year is get one of the above mentioned runningbacks, toss in an elite quarterback, then pick and choose out of the rest of the even playing field and cruise to a championship. don't forget, the number one tightend will have more touchdowns than most of the top 10 receivers this year.

 

I think the 5 you mentioned are gonna be the 5 taken in 98% of top 5 picks in ppr leagues.

Edited by dirtdickens
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I went RB/RB/RB once and it worked out extremely well....

 

you would have to be there to see it...and I wouldn't encourage anyone else to do this, but the scenario called for it since there was too much value left on the board with the 3rd round pick....

 

I ended up having 3 stud RB's and then I Muto'd the rest of my draft...

 

 

Did you win that league that year?

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Did you win that league that year?

 

actually I did....I kinda cruised...

 

it's the last time I won that league...it was 2007....it was the 2nd time in a row that i won that league and 3x out of the 4 years starting from that point, so I am extremely lucky in this league..

 

it was my local....

 

as I said, I wouldn't encourage anyone to do that, but I ended up with Clinton Portis as a #3 and then made a trade before the season to acquire a couple of players which landed me my 3rd stud RB...I'm going to go check the records live ::suspense::

 

the only thing I know is that I ended up trading that 3rd RB for an upgrade at WR and Selvin Young down the stretch...

 

my RB's were:

 

SJax - traded for before the season

AD - drafted

Lenwhale - drafted

SYoung - traded for at the deadline

Norwood - drafted

 

my starters/reserves for my lineup finished like this (2007) 12 team advanced performance scoring PPR league...

 

Roethlisberger

AD

SJax

Marshall

Ocho

Engram

Cooley

Bironas

TB Def

 

reserves:

 

Chris Henry RB TEN

LenWhale

SYoung

Norwood

Chris Henry Cin WR

Branch

D Lee GB TE

MIN Def

SEA Def

Edited by Avernus
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  • 1 month later...

12 team league, performance scoring, 1 PPR (1.5 for TE), start 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB or WR or TE).

 

I have the 4th pick and assume I'll be grabbing whichever is left of AP, CJ, MJD, Rice so that gives me a top RB already, great. Now here is what I am considering at the 2.09 and 3.04, TE and TE. I'm not a huge fan of the WR's that are typically left here and won't be grabbing a QB yet and the RB's here are not all that much more solid then say what's around later on considering I already have a top one.

 

Obviously I'll be flexible at the draft and not have this stuck in my head as a must do but if all 3 top TE's (Clark, Gates and Davis) are there I'm 90% going to give it a try. In our league last year only 6 WR scored above these TE's and the chance of me getting one of those 6 probably won't be there at 2.09.

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Big money league we start - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR,1TE, 1PK, 1DEF - no flex option

PPR scoring where TEs get double yardage points (0.2).

 

I won my league last year drafting like this:

WR-WR-WR-RB-TE-QB which resulted in - Fitz, Moss, Vjax, Ray Rice, Olsen, Mcnabb/E. Manning...

 

My strategy every year is draft low-risk players in the first 3 rounds (usually WR because I think RB carry higher injury risk). Then I go for explosive and/or young RBs in later rounds - if I hit on 1 I'm good (Rice last year). I always grab who I think will be a top 5 TE, sometimes I start the TE run, others I grab as soon as the run starts. Basically, I grab the best player on the board most of the time.

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A "good" TE may be nice, but two stud TE's kick ass if you can start both. Think of it this way... what do you expect out of your #3 WR? What do you expect out of Gates or Clark? When you have two and they hit, they are both a golden goose that another team will always want and command a big name in trade. If you have an injury that tilts your team, you can always trade one of the stud TE's to balance it. Last year Witten didn't really hit as big as he should have, but his trade value was always high... that's my point... yes, I'm sure of it... stud TE's are money.

It must be fun to play in a league with all other owners having an IQ under 40.

 

Gotta plan ahead. Go ahead a draft RB/RB/RB/WR/QB again and finish 6th.

 

Sooo, if I don't draft two TEs right away my only other choice is 3 RBs?

 

you have to be right with both picks AND find an acceptable trading partner with an acceptable deal. Seems like a lot of hoops to jump through.

 

Couldn't agree more. I can't imagine spending earlier draft picks on trade bait. If the other owners don't realize that I'm sitting on two TEs and missing a key position somewhere else and they don' t hold me hostage and offer dirt I wouldn't respect them on Tuesday morning. I've been in leagues where owners don't really trade much and other leagues where owners don't value a TE enough to trade for one. They figure most TEs will score around the same most weeks and would rather hold key players at other positions on their bench as insurance.

 

Aristotle said it is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. Maybe you need to step away and "entertain" that overloading on TEs is not as great an idea as you think and stop selling it so hard.

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It must be fun to play in a league with all other owners having an IQ under 40.

Why... so you could finally be the smart one?

 

Sooo, if I don't draft two TEs right away my only other choice is 3 RBs?

It's too complicated for you to understand, but to get the top two you have to go up a round and be in the right place without someone falling you can't pass up.

 

Couldn't agree more. I can't imagine spending earlier draft picks on trade bait. If the other owners don't realize that I'm sitting on two TEs and missing a key position somewhere else and they don' t hold me hostage and offer dirt I wouldn't respect them on Tuesday morning. I've been in leagues where owners don't really trade much and other leagues where owners don't value a TE enough to trade for one. They figure most TEs will score around the same most weeks and would rather hold key players at other positions on their bench as insurance.

 

Aristotle said it is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. Maybe you need to step away and "entertain" that overloading on TEs is not as great an idea as you think and stop selling it so hard.

This is a discussion board moran. Tell us your brilliant strategy... lemme guess... +/- 3 picks from the ADP and you wind up 7th again?

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