Rovers Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 Not that I think Portis will have a good year, but C Martin and T Jones had their career years at the age of 30 or more. It isn't common but I would not call it rare, for a 30 year old RB to have a good season either. Each RB, their teams, their situation, their injury situatioin/health and their mileage has to be considered as a whole, and not in seperate parts of the same puzzle. Martin was coming off one of his worst years before coming back and winning the rushing title. He shook off some nagging injuries, and worked harder than he ever had in that off season. I read the reports. I saw his rare itnerviews. I bought in, and when FF sites and players were chiseling his football tombstone, I predicted him having a comeback year. Guess who was right? CuMar was right. Now, Portis is not Martin. I don't look for a return to his glory days, much less a career year, but I think he is definitely draftable as RB4 material. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooknladder Posted July 22, 2010 Author Share Posted July 22, 2010 Not that I think Portis will have a good year, but C Martin and T Jones had their career years at the age of 30 or more. It isn't common but I would not call it rare, for a 30 year old RB to have a good season either. Each RB, their teams, their situation, their injury situatioin/health and their mileage has to be considered as a whole, and not in seperate parts of the same puzzle. Martin was coming off one of his worst years before coming back and winning the rushing title. He shook off some nagging injuries, and worked harder than he ever had in that off season. I read the reports. I saw his rare itnerviews. I bought in, and when FF sites and players were chiseling his football tombstone, I predicted him having a comeback year. Guess who was right? CuMar was right. Now, Portis is not Martin. I don't look for a return to his glory days, much less a career year, but I think he is definitely draftable as RB4 material. it's definitely rare. out of hundreds of back who have passed thru the NFL over the years only a handful of backs have done it. play the odds and roll with the young guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 it's definitely rare. out of hundreds of back who have passed thru the NFL over the years only a handful of backs have done it. play the odds and roll with the young guys. Follow the pack, and end up in the pack in FF. Just use any site's cheat sheets for the first 5 rounds and you won't have a bad FF team. You likely won't have a good one either, although it's possible. Some diligent research, and going on a hunch can win FF titles. For me it's about taking a T Jones late last year, or a Ray Rice in the 4th round. I think Portis is worth a shot as an RB4 taken in the late rounds, after I have my other starters on my roster. He likely won't last until the 9th round, but if he does... I don't think it's rare for an RB to have a good year at the age of 30. A comeback year, OK, that's borderline rare. Like I said earlier, it all depends on the factors I mentioned. Age is should not be the sole detertmination if a player is draftable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooknladder Posted July 22, 2010 Author Share Posted July 22, 2010 (edited) Follow the pack, and end up in the pack in FF. Just use any site's cheat sheets for the first 5 rounds and you won't have a bad FF team. You likely won't have a good one either, although it's possible. Some diligent research, and going on a hunch can win FF titles. For me it's about taking a T Jones late last year, or a Ray Rice in the 4th round. I think Portis is worth a shot as an RB4 taken in the late rounds, after I have my other starters on my roster. He likely won't last until the 9th round, but if he does... I don't think it's rare for an RB to have a good year at the age of 30. A comeback year, OK, that's borderline rare. Like I said earlier, it all depends on the factors I mentioned. Age is should not be the sole detertmination if a player is draftable. age is a good place to start. i would take every back named in this thread over Portis or LJ @ RB4. i did'nt follow the pack last year when Portis was ranked in the top 10 or 12. for me it's less about hunches and more about odds, statistics, and trends. i wonder what the plan is for you guys that take Portis in rnd 8 or 9? -will you then feel compelled to take LJ? -how about Parker? where does it end? will you be singing Hail to the Redskins every sunday, chasing an improbable comeback on a team that always seems to aquire players just after they peak? Edited July 22, 2010 by hooknladder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 age is a good place to start. i would take every back named in this thread over Portis or LJ @ RB4. i did'nt follow the pack last year when Portis was ranked in the top 10 or 12. for me it's less about hunches and more about odds, statistics, and trends. i wonder what the plan is for you guys that take Portis in rnd 8 or 9? -will you then feel compelled to take LJ? -how about Parker? where does it end? will you be singing Hail to the Redskins every sunday, chasing an improbable comeback on a team that always seems to aquire players just after they peak? It's still early, and while I won't rule out drafting Portis, I'm not saying I am committed to drafting him either. For my redraft leagues, there is still much to learn. My opinion on Portis along with another 300 players will change as TC's begin and we start to see some preseason action. I won't rule him out, you already have based on age. Let's see who gets the ball in PS game 2 and 3. That doesn't go for only the Redskins, how about Cleveland? The Jets? The Giants? Lots of questions about how is gonna get the rock. Ruling most players in or out just yety is premature. Now, for dynasty leagues, yes, get the crystal ball out and gamble on a hunch. If I could get Portis for my LB4, I just might do that now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 in all my 10 team PPR mocks, Portis is going in the double digit rounds. I'd take him there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 i know who Brown is. this is his 2nd year. i would hope all of those backs go before Portis. i don't know how to make it any more clear. i have listed backs i would take over Portis. all the guys you've named and all the guys i've named plus more i would take over Portis (or LJ). so what you're saying is you're the savviest young player drafter around?...you're like the Doc Holliday of drafting.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 age is a good place to start. i would take every back named in this thread over Portis or LJ @ RB4. i did'nt follow the pack last year when Portis was ranked in the top 10 or 12. for me it's less about hunches and more about odds, statistics, and trends. i wonder what the plan is for you guys that take Portis in rnd 8 or 9? -will you then feel compelled to take LJ? -how about Parker? where does it end? will you be singing Hail to the Redskins every sunday, chasing an improbable comeback on a team that always seems to aquire players just after they peak? I go by mileage over age... think Priest Holmes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 in all my 10 team PPR mocks, Portis is going in the double digit rounds. I'd take him there. in a PPR....Portis value goes down I think.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 I pray to God that Portis has an amazing year, for no other reason to watch BEM and hooknladder try to spin it in a negative light. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Ernie McCracken Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 (edited) I pray to God that Portis has an amazing year, for no other reason to watch BEM and hooknladder try to spin it in a negative light. The difference between this year and last year is the same huddle vets who considered Portis a late first rounder or early second rounder (including you) have began to understand that over the hill running backs don't make good early draft picks. I'm a Redskin fan and a Portis fan, but it was obvious that many vets with apparent vast football acumen had massively overestimated his value and even after it became completely apparent they had done so, most refused to admit they were very, very, very, wrong. Maybe you should show your belief in Portis by drafting him in the first couple rounds again this year. or Maybe you should poll all the people who followed your advice by drafting Portis as an RB1 last season and see how that worked out or Maybe you should pray for a clearer thought process instead, because your obsessive man-love for Portis may be a cry for help. Edited July 22, 2010 by Big Ernie McCracken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 The difference between this year and last year is the same huddle vets who considered Portis a late first rounder or early second rounder (including you) have began to understand that over the hill running backs don't make good early draft picks. I'm a Redskin fan and a Portis fan, but it was obvious that many vets with apparent vast football acumen had massively overestimated his value and even after it became completely apparent they had done so, most refused to admit they were very, very, very, wrong. Maybe you should show your belief in Portis by drafting him in the first couple rounds again this year. or Maybe you should poll all the people who followed your advice by drafting Portis as an RB1 last season and see how that worked out or Maybe you should pray for a clearer thought process instead, because your obsessive man-love for Portis may be a cry for help. Please post where I said Portis was a first round pick . . . I dare you. I dont give a crap about Portis one way or the other. I just think watching you try to spin in circles if he DOES have a good year would be high comedy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Ernie McCracken Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 I dont give a crap about Portis one way or the other. For someone who doesn't give a crap, you sure seem pretty interested in this thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Ernie McCracken Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 (edited) I just think watching you try to spin in circles if he DOES have a good year would be high comedy. Just like you said last year and we know how that turned out Edited July 22, 2010 by Big Ernie McCracken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 Just like you said last year and we know how that turned out Still waiting for you to show where I said Portis was a first round pick . . . g'ahead . . take your time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flemingd Posted July 23, 2010 Share Posted July 23, 2010 you don't get it. old is old. LJ only played 1 full season (he was 25y/o). relying on LJ to fill any role on your fantasy team is a recipe for disaster. it's not impossible, you do get a back here and there enjoying a little comeback, (the real special ones), but the vast majority do not rebound. the protocol is to consistently draft young backs for perennial success . Thomas Jones, Ricky Williams, and Warrick Dunn of '04-'06 might disagree. I'd love to cite more examples, but it's not often that RB's with sufficient talent level aren't burned well past the 2k carries mark before age 28. Chester Taylor (30, 1028) might be an interesting one to watch if given the chance. LJ has (had?) the talent and is relatively low-mileage, especially compared to Portis. I'm not abdicating LJ as anything more than a flier here. I'm simply saying he's a better flier candidate than Portis because he has taken a significantly lower amount of abuse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 23, 2010 Share Posted July 23, 2010 Thomas Jones, Ricky Williams, and Warrick Dunn of '04-'06 might disagree. I'd love to cite more examples, but it's not often that RB's with sufficient talent level aren't burned well past the 2k carries mark before age 28. Chester Taylor (30, 1028) might be an interesting one to watch if given the chance. LJ has (had?) the talent and is relatively low-mileage, especially compared to Portis. I'm not abdicating LJ as anything more than a flier here. I'm simply saying he's a better flier candidate than Portis because he has taken a significantly lower amount of abuse. +1...and that can allow production by an older back....Chester Taylor is another one.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted July 23, 2010 Share Posted July 23, 2010 Portis is the definition of downside. tons of treadwear.i don't know what round your saying we're in where Spiller is gone and Poris is there .... but the names don't matter, the premise is the same. call it Blount, Tate and Dwyer -they all have more upside than Portis or LJ....-one of them could be the next elite feature back, -we already know Portis and LJ are not. i don't care if Portis bumps up his numbers a little this year and manages more than 1 touchdown or 500yds, the ceiling is much lower for him(Portis), than the talented young backs in their 1st or 2nd year where the sky is the limit. And again, you couldn't be more wrong. Portis is one year removed from 1500/9 and has a long history as a top back. All the guys you mentioned haven't proven squat and could just as easily do 500/1 or less and not have injuries as an excuse. Meanwhile, the odds of Portis not getting at least close to 1000 are IMO small. Or am I the only one who noticed that he still averaged 4.0 YPC last year and now has a better QB? I agree Portis is long in the tooth and on the edge of retirement, but you put way, way too much emphasis on youth. You have to look at ALL factors for a player. Oh and saying guys like Blount and Dwyer have more upside is nothing short of laughable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted July 24, 2010 Share Posted July 24, 2010 Portis is the definition of downside. tons of treadwear.i don't know what round your saying we're in where Spiller is gone and Poris is there shrug.gif .... but the names don't matter, the premise is the same. call it Blount, Tate and Dwyer -they all have more upside than Portis or LJ....-one of them could be the next elite feature back, -we already know Portis and LJ are not. i don't care if Portis bumps up his numbers a little this year and manages more than 1 touchdown or 500yds, the ceiling is much lower for him(Portis), than the talented young backs in their 1st or 2nd year where the sky is the limit. And again, you couldn't be more wrong. I agree Portis is long in the tooth and on the edge of retirement, but as Rovers said, you put way too much on only one factor (age). Portis is one year removed from 1500/9 and has a long history as a top back, while all the guys you mentioned haven't proven squat and could just as easily do 500/1 or less and not have injuries as an excuse (some agree that is also unlikely though). PS: Portis still averaged 4.0 YPC last year and now has a better QB, and Cooley is back (etc). it's definitely rare. out of hundreds of back who have passed thru the NFL over the years only a handful of backs have done it. play the odds and roll with the young guys.Poor analogy. Extremely few of those had the talent/production Portis had/has.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooknladder Posted July 24, 2010 Author Share Posted July 24, 2010 And again, you couldn't be more wrong. I agree Portis is long in the tooth and on the edge of retirement, but as Rovers said, you put way too much on only one factor (age). Portis is one year removed from 1500/9 and has a long history as a top back, while all the guys you mentioned haven't proven squat and could just as easily do 500/1 or less and not have injuries as an excuse (some agree that is also unlikely though). PS: Portis still averaged 4.0 YPC last year and now has a better QB, and Cooley is back (etc). Poor analogy. Extremely few of those had the talent/production Portis had/has.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooknladder Posted July 24, 2010 Author Share Posted July 24, 2010 And again, you couldn't be more wrong. Portis is one year removed from 1500/9 and has a long history as a top back. All the guys you mentioned haven't proven squat and could just as easily do 500/1 or less and not have injuries as an excuse. Meanwhile, the odds of Portis not getting at least close to 1000 are IMO small. Or am I the only one who noticed that he still averaged 4.0 YPC last year and now has a better QB? I agree Portis is long in the tooth and on the edge of retirement, but you put way, way too much emphasis on youth. You have to look at ALL factors for a player. Oh and saying guys like Blount and Dwyer have more upside is nothing short of laughable. ....so Portis is a lock for close to 1000yds....and ALL the guys i have mentioned, that have'nt proven "squat" (rookies, new feature backs((who happen to be young )), could EASILY go <500yds/1..... .....last call for the better-late-than-never Portis bandwagon... ...-now boarding, BeeR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electricrelish Posted July 24, 2010 Share Posted July 24, 2010 This evening II took Portis as a RB4 at 11.07. I kind of regret it now. The reason is I don't know if anyone would have drafted him that high. I probably could have waited. I do think he's worth the risk at that late stage. Training camp will tell us a lot, and whether I end up dropping him right away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooknladder Posted July 26, 2010 Author Share Posted July 26, 2010 ....so Portis is a lock for close to 1000yds....and ALL the guys i have mentioned, that have'nt proven "squat" (rookies, new feature backs((who happen to be young )), could EASILY go <500yds/1..... .....last call for the better-late-than-never Portis bandwagon... ...-now boarding, BeeR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted July 26, 2010 Share Posted July 26, 2010 This evening II took Portis as a RB4 at 11.07. I kind of regret it now. The reason is I don't know if anyone would have drafted him that high. I probably could have waited. I do think he's worth the risk at that late stage. Training camp will tell us a lot, and whether I end up dropping him right away. Late to this thread but how many starting NFL running backs go un-drafted? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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