Brady or Romo - What say ye?

[staniels12]

Looks like these will be my QB options with my 1st round pick in a QB-heavy league. I'm a Cowboys homer, so my judgement is cloudy to say the least. Boys are +Dez and Pats might be -Wes for a minute, which in my mind pretty much evens things out. I'm assuming Rodgers, Brees and Manning are off the board when I'm up, and I'm not into spending my first pick on Schaub or Rivers. Thoughts?

[Big Country]

define

 

 

This.

 

I'm especially curious as based on the post, looks like there would be 4-5 QBs taken in the first round alone.

[telestar]

I think there is likely more to this league in terms of keepers or roster requirements than is apparent from the post, but in a vacuum I would liean towards Romo. I think there is a greater chance of a breakout in DAL, and while the NE offense should be good in general and fine in the passing game, I don't see the same sort of breakout potential from them. They will get the ball to Moss, and they will utilize Edelman/Welker significantly, but I don't see them producing big numbers of passing TDS above last year. And last year Brady had a few good games but there were many others when he had just about 200 yds and 1 or no TDS. Go with the upside is my suggestion.

[Cowboyz1]

Well since you mentioned that you are a fellow Boys fan. I have to say, WHAT ARE YOU THINKING! ROMO ROMO ROMO. Is they any question about this. Brady is Brady but he showed chinks in the armor last year. Romo however has more weapons and has shown improvement every year since being a starter. It is on thing to break Aikmans yardage record and Touchdown record but when you start breaking his Completion % record then your doing something. Romo has Bryant and a more motivated Williams + Austin. The Cowboys backfield is second to none.

 

 

IF the line gells and protects well, are at least as well as last year pre-vikings, Romo will put up another 4000 plus and 30+ TDs if not more. With Felix showing more recieving skills out of the backfield add about 3 more TD's.

[bleacher]

Well I'm NOT a cowboys homer, I just drafted Brady over Romo and in a dynasty league I traded Romo for Brady. Moss and Brady are in a contract year and I expect more than last years numbers with Brady coming in healthy. He had multiple injuries last year to slow him down. The cowboys have weapons at wr but they also have a very capable gound game while the Pats will have to continue passing. They are close but Brady is the fourth best qb while Romo is sixth or seventh depending on how much you like Rivers w/o Jackson for a while.

[staniels12]

define

Well.........here is last year's top 30 for our league. And FOR SURE the top 7 ranked QBswill be taken in the first round (16 picks).

 

1. Chris Johnson 413

2. Aaron Rodgers 403

3. Drew Brees 377

4. Peyton Manning 337

5. Tom Brady 330

6. Matt Schaub 329

7. Brett Favre 324

8. Tony Romo 320

9. Ben Roethlisberger 319

10. Phillip Rivers 312

11. Andre Johnson 306

12. Wes Welker 294

13. DeSean Jackson 291

14. Miles Austin 290

15. Randy Moss 287

16. Maurice Jones-Drew 280

17. Reggie Wayne 278

18. Dallas Clark 275

19. Ray Rice 274

20. Brandon Marshall 261

21. Frank Gore 260

22. Eli Manning 260

23. Donovan McNabb 260

24. Vernon Davis 258

25. Larry Fitzgerald 257

26. Roddy White 256

27. Adrian Peterson 250

28. Steve Smith NYG 241

29. Antonio Gates 236

30. Sidney Rice 231

 

Now last year it WAS unusual for us to have 9 out of the top 10 players end up being QBs, but that's just the kinda year it was. Usually we have about 5 QBs, 3 RBs and 2 WRs in our top 10, with a QB the top scorer 2 out of 5 years on average, a RB 2 out of 5 years, and a WR 1 out of 5 years. So more and more a top QB pays dividends in this league.

[staniels12]

We bumped up QB, WR and TE performance scoring back in the mid-90s so we wouldn't have those drafts with 11 or 12 straight RBs right off the bat. Stud RBs still go high, but the last 4 or 5 years QBs have pulled even, and just the last coupla of years maybe even pulled ahead for first round preference. Just 1 QB, 2RB, 2 WR & 1 TE each week (with K,DL, LB1, LB2, DB & Team D). Top TEs go end of the 2nd/start of the 3rd. I won the league last year with Brees at 1.4, good WRs and TEs, and spot starting of guys like Felix Jones, Beanie Wells and Jerome Harrison at RB. But I also drafted good LBs starting in Round 7 and got some top DLs and DBs (and worked the crap out of the waiver wire all season.). It's REALLY hard to dominate our draft, especially since all 16 guys have been in this league for at least 10 years. Every year our champ has to pretty much grind it out. I could always say screw it and draft Andre Johnson as the 1st WR, but QB is a good way to ensure you get a good chunk of points with your first pick.

[delusions of grandeur]

Big Country will be along with a copy-paste on why this is flawed

 

Do you start 2 QBs or do you allow a QB in the flex position? What's the drafting pattern of league mates... do they all take QBs in round one?

 

To save him the trouble, please refer to this great article about why should almost never take a QB with your first pick, or any time too early, unless extraordinary draft value presents itself.

 

P.S. I am not a KFFL supporter in the least bit, but this is exactly what BC would be telling you..

 

The bolded part of Opie's statement is also important to see how QB heavy it really is.

Edited July 21, 2010 by delusions of granduer

[staniels12]

Good article, and very good points. Just saying in this league full of sharks who all know each other VERY well, the odds are much better on hitting with bust-out RBs and WRs than QBs. I'm the first to admit we draft QBs wayyyyyy to early across the board, but that's where we are in this league right now. And this is the most proven pattern to win a championship for us. Since '92 I've waited on a QB past round 4 three times, and two of them are the only two years I've missed the playoffs. The other time I won the league, but my last (25th round) pick was Kurt Warner in 1999, so that was pretty flukey. I've won it all five times, and those years I got my QBs in rounds 1, 3, 6(Warner bail-out), 2 and 1. And the other years I've at least made the final four or title game. Usually when you target a later-round sleeper QB in this league, somebody will snake you a good bit before you can grab him. And when a promising QB slips a little (read: Kolb this year?), somebody is sure to hoard him. Yes we have QB hoarders in this league, and they are less scrupulous than Jabba the Hutt. But it is my favorite league I've ever played in, and the rivalries are off-the-charts intense.

[MASSAVE]

I'm going to agree about not taking a QB early. Even if history proves in your league it's the way go.

 

But if you are set on doing it, I think this is a very tough call. I think both should be pretty close in points. So you might want to look a bit deeper. Being a Cowboy fan, will you have more or less fun being a Cowboy fan with Romo on your team?

 

Check the schedule. I am sure you hope to make the playoffs. If the Pats are playing the Jets come week 15 or 16 and Dallas is playing Detroit, you might want to go with Brady.

 

Now - if I had to make the choice. I'd go with Brady. Based on a previous post - Dallas has a better running game inside the 10. The Pats will keep on passing all the way.

[webbnathan]

R.O.M.O

[Scooby's Hubby]

Let's see, banging a different model/actress/musician every night at will -or- Bang Giselle every night. I reluctantly go with Romo's angle.

[chamois3805]

What would Scooby say?

[Heroes2010]

Well I'm NOT a cowboys homer, I just drafted Brady over Romo and in a dynasty league I traded Romo for Brady. Moss and Brady are in a contract year and I expect more than last years numbers with Brady coming in healthy. He had multiple injuries last year to slow him down. The cowboys have weapons at wr but they also have a very capable gound game while the Pats will have to continue passing. They are close but Brady is the fourth best qb while Romo is sixth or seventh depending on how much you like Rivers w/o Jackson for a while.

 

I agree here with the contract year comment. there is no doubt that Moss performs in contract years and Brady will be pushing for a Manning-like contract. PLUS... the Pats throw more in the red zone that the 'Boys, regardless of score.

 

Now... when the stakes are getting bigger in November and December, Brady tends to be a little more consistent than Romo. I've been up against a Romo team late in the season and Romo just didn't get it done and I beat my opponent. An average game by Romo would have beaten me BUT he stunk and I got the "W".

 

I'd lean toward Brady. However... if Rodgers, Brees, or P. Manning fall to you jump on them.

 

Don't be down on Schaub (maybe a 2nd round pick). They play indoors... throw a lot.. have great receivers and an average RB group. Look at his passing stats from last year... pretty darn good. Only a small step below the big boys. Maybe take advantage of your opponents jumping on the top 4-5 QB's.. take your top WR or RB and grab Schaub in the 2nd.

[The Wolf]

I wouldn't take a QB in round one, period. However, if you are bent on doing so and want input, I lean towards Brady. NE is far and away a pass first team (who scares you on that team after taking a hand off? NO ONE) while Dallas has three RB's that can beat you. Plus, Welker was moved to the active PUP list, which means he can come off at any time. Between Moss, Welker, Holt, Faulk, etc, LOTS of options for Brady.

[MTSuper7]

I'd recommend not drafting a QB in round 1 as well... How long can you usually wait to get the bottom of the 2nd tier guys? If you can wait until rounds 6 or 7, your core RB/WR team will be quite a bit stronger than most other teams in your league. Eli and McNabb were listed at 22nd on this list, about 50 or so total points behind Rivers who was the #10 overall scorer and the 9th of 9 straight QBs at the top of the list in scoring. That amounts to like 3.5 points per game difference. To me, grabbing Romo in the first to gain, say a 70 point advantage over a guy like Eli in the 6th or 7th only amounts to 5 points per game roughly (and you can grab Big Ben as an early backup potentially, as he seems to be slipping down draft boards). If the dropoff from a top 4 RB to, say, the 12th best RB is larger than the dropoff from Romo to Eli, you're making a mistake passing on a top 4 RB for Brady or Romo (not saying you'd pass on a top 4 RB, but you could make the same case for top 3-4 WRs vs. 12th ranked WRs, as it's really all about what you would lose by waiting on any position).

 

BTW, I'd take Romo over Brady in that situation. You can't really go wrong with either per se, but when it counts (weeks 14-16), how do you feel about December weather in Chicago, New England and Buffalo vs. weather in Dallas (twice) and Arizona? That small difference is enough for me to feel like I'd rather have Romo.

[Scooby's Hubby]

What would Scooby say?

That is almost like asking 'what would Jesus do?'

[Scooby]

someone around here needs to balance out Satan

[Scorcher]

Unless it is going to snow for every Patriot game, I would go with Romo.

[BeeR]

Between Moss, Welker, Holt, Faulk, etc, LOTS of options for Brady.

I like Brady and Romo both as great QB bargains, but let's not push it. Moss is fine, but Welker is coming off a serious injury and won't be 100%, Holt is all but done and Faulk is pretty old as well. Plus no TE worth a flip. etc.

 

But again, I think both should be fine QBs that will come cheaper, allowing you to stock up elsewhere.

[bpwallace49]

I would lean towards Brady, simply due to the respective RB situations and the high probability that Brady will be passing more than Romo will.

[homebrewer]

I'd draft Brady. Romo is a little bit of a risk and Brady will be stronger this yr than last.