Keeping position flexibility?

[Coach1310]

I have always been a BPA(Best Player Available)guy. I mean, I have some thoughts going in, but when push comes to shove, I just take the best player..... HOWEVER, I have found myself ending up with 2 RBs or 2WRs in the first two rounds, only to stare at a real VALUE in the 3rd at a position I don't have much need. How much, if any, does keeping a flexible roster affect your draft in the early rounds??

[Big Country]

It's certainly a consideration, but a true BPA/value based draft takes into consideration estimates of what the best players available will be at the next round (or 2 rounds) and based on that best estimate, adjust picks accordingly. SO, it is possible that you are not going to take who you truly have as your current BPA because you believe you will come out ahead even more by say taking that lesser RB in the 2nd because better WRs will still be there in the 3rd, whereas RB will be even further depleted.

 

Not the easiest thing in the world to nail down, but it does help out for sure.

[MTSuper7]

Being flexible has to factor in... there's no question. For example, say you draft at 1.04, take Ray Rice in the 1st round, get good value at RB in the 2nd when DeAngelo Williams is there (say there was a big WR run as well as Rodgers and Brees going before your pick), and then your 3.04 pick comes around and there's Jamaal Charles staring you in the face...

 

To me, it all depends on the extent of the value as it relates to other positions. In the above situation, if I have Jamaal Charles as the #9 overall RB on my cheat sheet, but all of the tier one QBs and WRs are gone as well as the top 10 WRs on my cheat sheet, I'd have a hard time not picking him there unless I could only start two RBs (taking a bench player that early would be a mistake IMO). Of course, the lines are much blurrier than that sometimes, and you have to trust your gut in the end. But as long as you aren't drafting a bench player because of the tremendous value, BPA usually makes the most sense (unless you know league trends will dictate that your BPA will likely still be there in the next round or something). And even sometimes, it might make sense to draft a bench player if the value is just too good to pass up (though that's usually more in the mid rounds and not as early as the 3rd or 4th).

Edited July 25, 2010 by MTSuper7

[BeeR]

This is also a question for auctions, but a very different dynamic IMO, as auctions allow tons more flexibility...so basically if the value is good enough, I won't hesitate to jump on a player where I'm already deep.

[Scorcher]

Being flexible has to factor in... there's no question. For example, say you draft at 1.04, take Ray Rice in the 1st round, get good value at RB in the 2nd when DeAngelo Williams is there (say there was a big WR run as well as Rodgers and Brees going before your pick), and then your 3.04 pick comes around and there's Jamaal Charles staring you in the face...

 

To me, it all depends on the extent of the value as it relates to other positions. In the above situation, if I have Jamaal Charles as the #9 overall RB on my cheat sheet, but all of the tier one QBs and WRs are gone as well as the top 10 WRs on my cheat sheet, I'd have a hard time not picking him there unless I could only start two RBs (taking a bench player that early would be a mistake IMO). Of course, the lines are much blurrier than that sometimes, and you have to trust your gut in the end. But as long as you aren't drafting a bench player because of the tremendous value, BPA usually makes the most sense (unless you know league trends will dictate that your BPA will likely still be there in the next round or something). And even sometimes, it might make sense to draft a bench player if the value is just too good to pass up (though that's usually more in the mid rounds and not as early as the 3rd or 4th).

 

Good advice, and something I have never considered.

[dirtdickens]

this is ppr only

I have been messing around with some mock draft sites and this has been a huge problem in almost all of them. I thought picking 1-5 was the way to go but when you come around in the second there are some WRs I am not comfortable with and some decent RBs left. Take the RB and coming around in 3 you are looking at some complete poop WRs as your #1. I guess in the second you really have to take a DJax as your number 1 and pass on the Jamal Charles, DWill that is there. Add to that you gotta handcuff your stud and those guys are going in the rounds where you could really pick up some value.

 

The last two I did I made it a point to take WR/WR and just settle for taking the "other half" of a couple of RBBC teams. I actually like it more than taking Gore or Rice and scrounging for WR help.

 

EX: picking #9 in a PPR snake. RB looks weak, but with guys like Thomas Jones, Hightower, Mike Bush hanging around till the 8th-10th rounds. I think I found the way I intend to go. Not copletely happy with Moss, but at that point he is just as likely to score double digit TDs as the backs going in that range.

QB Rivers

WR RMoss

WR RWhite

WR/TE SSmith NYG

RB Addai

RB Hightower

WR/RB MBush

TE Gonzo

 

Bench

CTaylor

DMason

Collie

ZMiller

AFoster

JDwyer

[Rovers]

Being flexible has to factor in... there's no question. For example, say you draft at 1.04, take Ray Rice in the 1st round, get good value at RB in the 2nd when DeAngelo Williams is there (say there was a big WR run as well as Rodgers and Brees going before your pick), and then your 3.04 pick comes around and there's Jamaal Charles staring you in the face...

 

To me, it all depends on the extent of the value as it relates to other positions. In the above situation, if I have Jamaal Charles as the #9 overall RB on my cheat sheet, but all of the tier one QBs and WRs are gone as well as the top 10 WRs on my cheat sheet, I'd have a hard time not picking him there unless I could only start two RBs (taking a bench player that early would be a mistake IMO). Of course, the lines are much blurrier than that sometimes, and you have to trust your gut in the end. But as long as you aren't drafting a bench player because of the tremendous value, BPA usually makes the most sense (unless you know league trends will dictate that your BPA will likely still be there in the next round or something). And even sometimes, it might make sense to draft a bench player if the value is just too good to pass up (though that's usually more in the mid rounds and not as early as the 3rd or 4th).

 

I try to avoid drafting the same position in the first 2 rounds if I can help it, although this year I am toying with the idea of WR-WR with the 1.11 and 2.02.

 

Last year I went RB early, and T Jones was sitting there in I think it was the 6th round. I already had Brown and Rice (yes, I was on the RR bandwagon big time last year). Not being able to start 3RB, I had to go elsewhere because I was almost painted into a corner. Jones was the value pick, but I was really looking at dregs for WR3 if I waited till the 7th. I ended up with SS (NYG) there, so it worked out, but in general, I try to avoid stockpiling at one position too early so I can make the value pick instead of the need pick.

 

Had I gone WR at 1.11, I would have been able to snag Jones in the sixth.

 

I have also been disappointed in having stockpiled at one position based on making th value pick only to find no trading partner willing to give value for value. Other owners see the glaring hole in my roster, and hold out for me to sell low to fill that hole.

 

Now, why am I thinking about WR-WR? Because if a value WR falls to me even in the 3rd round, he's a starter. I can still make the value pick and get another starter. If I go that route, later I can stockpile upside RB's like Bush, one of the CLE RB's, a Brandon Jacobs, a J Stewart etc. If I can draft 4 or even 5 RB's like that, I only need two of them to work out. Risky, but with 3 very good starters at WR.... it's a risk I could live with.

 

There is almost no way I can see going RB-RB this year.

[Coach1310]

Thanks for all the repsonses so far.... I have done some Mocks and it sure seems like the WR's are super valued so far. In a mock last night, 8 WRs went in Rounds 1 and 2 in a NON ppr draft?? My local is unbelievably running back heavy..... and in the last 5 years in averages about 15 RB's in the first 20 picks, so I just can't see it happening like a lot of mocks do with all these receivers... the hitch for me seems to be QB.... traditionally I won't grab a QB until mid draft unless I can get a STEAL of a value, but it looks as if a WR/Elite QB 1-2 punch seems to lay the team out more to my liking this year????

 

Is the RBBC phenomenon leading to extra value with wideouts and depleted value in RBs who aren't the only feature back??

 

I can plan all day long, but on draft day one never knows...

[Chargerz]

Is the RBBC phenomenon leading to extra value with wideouts and depleted value in RBs who aren't the only feature back??

Yes. I see this trend more this year than ever before.

[dirtdickens]

WR is certainly more valuable this year. I have a pretty decent thread about staring drafts WR/WR over the last two years no matter what. This year I thought I had to go RB in the 1st round to keep up because I didnt think there was any depth for top RBs compared to WRs.

 

Been going WR-RB-WR-WR in every singel draft because honestly in the third round it comes down to Wes Welker/ V Jax or Ronnie Brown/Brandon jacobs, I am taking the WRs everytime.

 

Going a step further. After only taking a RB in round two I have been waiting until the 6-7-8 to grab Mike Bush, Hightower and Thomas Jones.

Other halves are going at a pretty decent rate. Really happy if this keeps up going into the draft.

[Coach1310]

I did a standard scoring 10 team mock last night with the 8th pick. I like 6RBs as true #1's and all were gone so I went Andre Johnson and got Reggie Wayne on the way back. I ended up with DWilliams, McCoy in 3/4.

 

I'm starting to think if you can't get a top 6 back, WR/WR or WR/QB may be the way to go. Seems like a lot of decent backs in the 3rd-5th rounds, but WRs are pretty blah....

[dirtdickens]

I did a standard scoring 10 team mock last night with the 8th pick. I like 6RBs as true #1's and all were gone so I went Andre Johnson and got Reggie Wayne on the way back. I ended up with DWilliams, McCoy in 3/4.

 

I'm starting to think if you can't get a top 6 back, WR/WR or WR/QB may be the way to go. Seems like a lot of decent backs in the 3rd-5th rounds, but WRs are pretty blah....

 

Exactly the way I see it.

[MTSuper7]

There is almost no way I can see going RB-RB this year.

 

Funny, because if the majority of my league feels this way, I'll bet I find myself in a situation where I end up going RB-RB. It all depends on trends and who falls in the 2nd round. Usually the first round decision is more obvious (Seriously, how many mocks have you seen that go CJ, AP, MJD, RR, Gore, AJ, Turner, Moss, etc.) Those first several picks usually go the same way, but not always (someone in my main local always pulls a stunner like the year after Peyton's 49 TDs, Peyton went #3 overall).

 

Last year in my main local, I could have sworn I would start RB-WR based on where I was picking, but somehow Frank Gore slipped to 2.07. You never know.

[Coach1310]

Nope... you never do know how it goes. Each league is different. I have little doubt that at least 8RB's will go in the first of my local and then a HUGE run on WR's and probably 2 QBs in the second. RBBC sure has forced some changes in fantasy football.