Gopher Posted August 5, 2010 Share Posted August 5, 2010 (edited) Seriously, some of you are trying way too hard to convince everyone else that this guy is legit. As far as I'm concerned, the more people that pass on Kolb the better... so I'm certainly not going to waste my time trying to convince people (many of whom I'm in competition with) that he's worth taking as a QB1. Personally, if I miss out on the top 6-7 QB's, I am perfectly content taking a chance on him... I might take a backup QB a round or two earlier than I would if I had Brees, Manning, etc., but I would do that with Ryan, Cutler, or Flacco as well. This reminds me a little bit of the Thomas Jones debate last year, in which some people were so damned sure that Greene was going to get the bulk of the work, and Jones' career was basically on a steep downhill slide. We all know how that ended up, and I wouldn't be surprised if this is all that different (meaning that, by year's end, Kolb very well may earn QB1 status). We'll see, but I can think of quite a few "top-15" QB's who I would pass on long before Kolb, with the weapons he has in place. Edited for spelling. Edited August 5, 2010 by Gopher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 5, 2010 Share Posted August 5, 2010 could you please tell me what your point is?....Where do you have Kolb ranked? I'm very curious, but I'm not sure that you're interested in offering anything worthwhile here other than badmouthing what other people think... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 5, 2010 Share Posted August 5, 2010 Seriously, some of you are trying way too hard to convince everyone else that this guy is legit. As far as I'm concerned, the more people that pass on Kolb the better... so I'm certainly not going to waste my time trying to convince people (many of whom I'm in competition with) that he's worth taking as a QB1. Personally, if I miss out on the top 6-7 QB's, I am perfectly content taking a chance on him... I might take a backup QB a round or two earlier than I would if I had Brees, Manning, etc., but I would do that with Ryan, Cutler, or Flacco as well. This reminds me a little bit of the Thomas Jones debate last year, in which some people were so damned sure that Greene was going to get the bulk of the work, and Jones' career was basically on a steep downhill slide. We all know how that ended up, and I wouldn't be surprised if this is all that different (meaning that, by year's end, Kolb very well may earn QB1 status). We'll see, but I can think of quite a few "top-15" QB's who I would pass on long before Kolb, with the weapons he has in place. Edited for spelling. how many people have said he's anything more than the 7th best Fantasy QB headed into the season?...you're saying what I said, but you're making it sound like I'm hyping him up to be top 3... the people against Kolb are trying way too hard to convince others that he's not even a top 15 QB... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 5, 2010 Share Posted August 5, 2010 (edited) how many people have said he's anything more than the 7th best Fantasy QB headed into the season?...you're saying what I said, but you're making it sound like I'm hyping him up to be top 3... the people against Kolb are trying way too hard to convince others that he's not even a top 15 QB... I think Kolb could be a solid QB, maybe even startable in a 12 team league. But to simply throw him past so many proven vets when he's starting his first full season this year simply because he's Reid's QB could very well be stretching what he may be capable of. Reid has a track record of O numbers generated by 2 QBs - Favre & McNabb. When other QBs of lesser than their stature have run his O, their numbers have been pedestrian. And I quite frankly can not fathom badmouthing McNabb when he accomplished everything he has in his career. That smacks of some really poor reasoning skills to me. Kolb is still early in his learning curve, and he isn't going to have a great running game to support him. Philly plays in a tough division and he isn't going to be seeing the KC and NO Ds every week, plus all the other teams that play Philly this year now will have had a whole offseason to build a book on him. I expect him to struggle at times like virtually all young QBs do. I also don't expect him to step right in and pick up where McNabb left off. I would think that a reasonable expectation for Kolb this year would be somewhere around a FF QB11 to QB15 finish, which would be highly respectable given the circumstances and his lack of experience. Now, we can go back to flaming each other if you'd prefer that to the alternative of a reasonable discussion... Edited August 5, 2010 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 5, 2010 Share Posted August 5, 2010 (edited) I think Kolb could be a solid QB, maybe even startable in a 12 team league. But to simply throw him past so many proven vets when he's starting his first full season this year simply because he's Reid's QB could very well be stretching what he may be capable of. Reid has a track record of O numbers generated by 2 QBs - Favre & McNabb. When other QBs of lesser than their stature have run his O, their numbers have been pedestrian. And I quite frankly can not fathom badmouthing McNabb when he accomplished everything he has in his career. That smacks of some really poor reasoning skills to me. Kolb is still early in his learning curve, and he isn't going to have a great running game to support him. Philly plays in a tough division and he isn't going to be seeing the KC and NO Ds every week, plus all the other teams that play Philly this year now will have had a whole offseason to build a book on him. I expect him to struggle at times like virtually all young QBs do. I also don't expect him to step right in and pick up where McNabb left off. I would think that a reasonable expectation for Kolb this year would be somewhere around a FF QB11 to QB15 finish, which would be highly respectable given the circumstances and his lack of experience. Now, we can go back to flaming each other if you'd prefer that to the alternative of a reasonable discussion... alright, now what you said about Kolb was true...but my reasoning isn't just Andy Reid - it's DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek, Jason Avant and LeSean McCoy all being utilized in the passing game coupled with Andy Reid's offense in which he has finally put playmakers in the system at positions other than QB and RB (aside from TO for 1.5 seasons)...if my reasoning was just Andy Reid's system with WR's like Todd Pinkston and James Thrash, then I wouldn't dare place him in the top 15, let alone top 10... Jeff Garcia and AJ Feeley didn't even have a supporting cast like this when they had to run the offense and they still managed at least pedestrian numbers for one being a lifetime backup (for a reason) and another being on his last legs and resorting to a backup role.....they still were productive with less talent at the time and less talent around them.... and as for McNabb, he produced in a very good system and when I say he's a mediocre QB, it's not to say he's a mediocre player - it's the tools that he had to work with as a QB were mediocre and his running ability/arm strength got him by...not to mention a lot of screens and dump off's to Brian Westbrook when he had to keep the defense honest... all in all, I expect Kolb to have rough outings...but he'll post numbers comparable to QB's in the late top 10 and will be able to throw the ball for big plays as this offense allows him to do.... McNabb was too involved in the teams politics and it showed as (for whatever reason) he wouldn't throw DJax the ball at times even though he would check him off in his progression, but would look elsewhere (see: the last 2 Dallas games) DeSean was running free in the Dallas secondary those last 2 games on numerous plays, but McNabb wanted someone else to make the play for some reason...a couple analysts including Brian Baldinger come to mind have mentioned this on more than one occasion....I'm not going to try and figure out why he did this, but I know a QB like Kolb who was taken in the 2nd round isn't going to not throw someone the ball when they are wide open down field... Edited August 5, 2010 by Avernus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted August 5, 2010 Share Posted August 5, 2010 how many people have said he's anything more than the 7th best Fantasy QB headed into the season?...you're saying what I said, but you're making it sound like I'm hyping him up to be top 3... the people against Kolb are trying way too hard to convince others that he's not even a top 15 QB... I never said anybody thinks he's top-three, or even top-five. I simply said that I wouldn't go out of my way to try to "convert" the Kolb non-believers. If they don't like the guy, that's fine with me... probably means I'll be able to draft him that much later. I'm pretty much agreeing with you... I can't say that I'm 100% sure he'll be in the top 7-8, or even the top 10. But, compared to the other options at QB, at that point in most drafts, I think he's worth taking a chance on. With somebody like Flacco, for example, I think you pretty much know what you're going to get. In other words, Flacco might be the "safer" pick. But, I think Kolb has more "upside" than Flacco, in the sense that nobody knows for sure what the Philly offense is going to look like this year. All we know is that they have a better-than-average set of weapons in the passing game, including a running back who is a very good receiver, and a tight end who emerged as a top 6-8 guy as well. They're running game may be very poor this year... we don't know. All of those factors tell me that Kolb's situation alone could give him the opportunity to be a top-10 fantasy QB, regardless of talent. Sure, he's a risk/reward type of pick, but taking risks is what wins championships in this hobby... making the "safe" pick every time won't. I don't have a problem with the argument you're making... I'm just asking why let the cat out of the bag? I know this is a forum for discussing all things fantasy football, but sometimes I think we all (I'm just as guilty as the next guy) try a little bit too hard to justify our position, when we feel a player is going to out-perform their ADP, rather than just leaving well enough alone. Next thing you know, somebody is going to start a five-page thread on why rookie WR ****** ********* could be a decent 3rd or 4th WR in PPR leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 5, 2010 Share Posted August 5, 2010 I never said anybody thinks he's top-three, or even top-five. I simply said that I wouldn't go out of my way to try to "convert" the Kolb non-believers. If they don't like the guy, that's fine with me... probably means I'll be able to draft him that much later. I'm pretty much agreeing with you... I can't say that I'm 100% sure he'll be in the top 7-8, or even the top 10. But, compared to the other options at QB, at that point in most drafts, I think he's worth taking a chance on. With somebody like Flacco, for example, I think you pretty much know what you're going to get. In other words, Flacco might be the "safer" pick. But, I think Kolb has more "upside" than Flacco, in the sense that nobody knows for sure what the Philly offense is going to look like this year. All we know is that they have a better-than-average set of weapons in the passing game, including a running back who is a very good receiver, and a tight end who emerged as a top 6-8 guy as well. They're running game may be very poor this year... we don't know. All of those factors tell me that Kolb's situation alone could give him the opportunity to be a top-10 fantasy QB, regardless of talent. Sure, he's a risk/reward type of pick, but taking risks is what wins championships in this hobby... making the "safe" pick every time won't. I don't have a problem with the argument you're making... I'm just asking why let the cat out of the bag? I know this is a forum for discussing all things fantasy football, but sometimes I think we all (I'm just as guilty as the next guy) try a little bit too hard to justify our position, when we feel a player is going to out-perform their ADP, rather than just leaving well enough alone. Next thing you know, somebody is going to start a five-page thread on why rookie WR ****** ********* could be a decent 3rd or 4th WR in PPR leagues. the point was that BB came on rather strong with his disbelief, if he just simply said he disagreed...but he went a little overboard which required me to reply and then all hell broke loose.... if he just simply disagreed and gave reasoning, then that would be fine....it's pretty much how he went about it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted August 5, 2010 Share Posted August 5, 2010 I think he's going to be solid for a number of reasons: 1. I don't beleive the hype about Philly's defense being "Top 5". They were exposed in some ugly ways at various times last year by the better teams in the league (see Dallas, New Orleans). With this year's schedule, including games against solid offenses such as GB, MIN, IND, HOU, DAL twice, ATL & SF, I could see them in some shootouts, and at more frequent times, playing from behind. That bodes well for those looking at the Eagles to need to thrown even more than usual while in catch-up mode. 2. The WRs. With Jackson in his magical 3rd year, and with Maclin having a year's experience under his belt, this might be the best set of starting WRs the Eagles have had in decades. The WCO is predicated on short timing passes, and WRs with speed to turn short passes into long gains. Both these WRs have that ability, and I see no let up in the big-plays that this offense generated last year. The ball just won't travel 40 yards in the air. 3. The running game, or lack thereof. The unproven McCoy will not be relied on to generate 15-20 carries per week. Reid never ran that much with Westbrook, and certainly won't with McCoy. With no other tru tailback to take carries from McCoy, this offense will still be around a 70/30 mix of run to pass. 30-35 attempts per game will be the norm, and if they fall behind, you can expect some 45-50 passes, as was the case several times last season. 4. Red zone. The Birds have been historically terrible inside the 10-yard line in terms of rushing the ball into the endzone, and made a point to address it with the addition of Mike Bell. It remains to be seen how effective they'll be, and whether they'll truly change their current mentality, but if history is any indication, they'll continue to throw the ball into the endzone as they have done in past years, rather than run it in. That translates into 5-7 more TD passes than a QB with a running game that gets it accross the stripe (see Eli, Ryan, etc.). The Packers suffer the same enigma, and Rodgers gets more than his fair share of rushing TDs. I expect Kolb to have 3-5 rushing TDs himself, generated out of broken plays forcing him to tuck it and run it it. Comparing Kolb to performers such as Feely and Garcia is a moot point, if for no other reason than the defense was stellar under Jim Johnson, and was always able to keep the team in games. The simply didn't have to throw the ball a ton, and could stay with a reasonable run/pass mix without exposing their mediocre QBs. That won't be the case this year. And obviously, the comparison between Thrash/Pinkston and Jackson/Maclin is not even worth addressing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 5, 2010 Share Posted August 5, 2010 I agree with almost everything swammi said except the JJ defense... for a little while there, they had the bend, but don't break defense....the Garcia/Feeley 'comparisons' were made to show that QB's with less talent have got it done in this system...the same system that predicated itself on throwing the ball most of the time and running not so much.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted August 6, 2010 Share Posted August 6, 2010 (edited) A big reason I have some confidence is that Kolb has been in the league long enough to be able to jump in and be effective. Granted I'm not comparing him to Aaron Rodgers, but one of the reasons Rodgers was able to step in and play well pretty quickly is that he had a few years to learn the system before being thrust into the limelight. Kolb has had that luxury as well. I'd feel differently if he was entering his second year. ETA - Eagles team scrimmage on NFL Network right now... Edited August 6, 2010 by MTSuper7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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