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Drafting a Guy Coming Off a Career Year


ced1001
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Do you have hesitations drafting a guy after his career year?

 

Last year I grabbed CJ at 5 and he carried me to the promised land. This year I landed the first overall pick - the problem is, I almost never take a guy coming of a career year (whether I had previously owned him or not). After cracking 2000, I feel like expectations are simply too high relative to AD and others, and that defenses will be highly focused on stopping CJ at all costs (although they likely were last year). I made a similar decision not to draft Tom Brady after his record setting year and, well, you know how that ended.

 

I am interested to hear people thoughts on this...

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Common mistake ie people chasing last year. When Manning put up his 49 TDs, people paid laughable prices for him the next year (auction) - same for LT after his monster year. Love it, helps me every time. Still, even tho he isn't sniffing last year's numbers, CJ should have another great year, esp since he can catch and they don't have much else going for them, not unlike the Barry Sanders years (tho I'm not saying he's Sanders). And top guys are typically still top guys, just remember the "regression to the norm" thing.

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Something to consider though is that you're not picking a player expecting a repeat of the previous season, you are picking him based on what you think he will do this season and what level of risk he has of accomplishing expectations. A guy like Johnson will almost certainly fall but the question is how much? Manning was overpaid for the year after he had 49 TDs but then again - he always has 4000+ yards and always has 28 TDs or more. Yes, he fell but he was still a stud. Certainly coming off freakish career highs is a red flag but particularly in a position like RB where there is an ever declining amount of high production / low risk players, you certainly cannot fault anyone for taking CJ or Peterson.

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I think this will be Ray Rice's year to shine as the most productive back in the game. That offense this year is going to be real good. That O-line is nasty, They added Boldin, Flacco is no joke, the Ravens LOVE to run, run, run.. What more can you ask for?

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I think this will be Ray Rice's year to shine as the most productive back in the game. That offense this year is going to be real good. That O-line is nasty, They added Boldin, Flacco is no joke, the Ravens LOVE to run, run, run.. What more can you ask for?

 

Someone who you know will get goal line carries and has more than a 1 season track record? :wacko:

 

ETA: I have Ray Rice ranked high,and think he could be the #1 RB this year, but it's not like he doesn't have some questions potentially effecting his value.

Edited by bushwacked
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Common mistake ie people chasing last year. When Manning put up his 49 TDs, people paid laughable prices for him the next year (auction) - same for LT after his monster year. Love it, helps me every time. Still, even tho he isn't sniffing last year's numbers, CJ should have another great year, esp since he can catch and they don't have much else going for them, not unlike the Barry Sanders years (tho I'm not saying he's Sanders). And top guys are typically still top guys, just remember the "regression to the norm" thing.

 

So your saying LT after his monster year wasn't worth the #1 pick ?

 

He had 1949 combined yards, 18 TD's and 60 receptions

 

Seems worth it to me.

 

If CJ comes thru with those numbers I will be ok taking him at #1

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Perhaps I should have elaborated more, but the flip side to the equation is that I also like to try to target players who are poised to have their career year.

 

Ray Rice is the perfect example. In my PPR league, I might take him first overall, or try to trade down to second overall and grab him there. I agree the conditions a ripe for an unreal season. The Balt passing offense should provide a bit more room for RR to roam underneath. This change, combined with the fact that Willis is a year older, makes me feel like RR is poised for his monster year.

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I had CJ last year and the year before and with the 2nd pick this year I may be able to get him again. Not sure if I'm going to. Leaning towards Rice. All that being said, people are worried about CJ's work load last year. I admit I'm one of those people, but he did miss his sophomore season at Easten Carolina due to a broken leg. Why does this matter? Well he actually has one less year of wear and tear than players his same age. Important fact, probably not but food for thought. :wacko:

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Something to consider though is that you're not picking a player expecting a repeat of the previous season, you are picking him based on what you think he will do this season and what level of risk he has of accomplishing expectations. A guy like Johnson will almost certainly fall but the question is how much? Manning was overpaid for the year after he had 49 TDs but then again - he always has 4000+ yards
You mean like the year after that 49 TDs? Try 3700 yds and only 28 TDs. :wacko:

 

My point is an amazing # of people expect a player will do close to what they did in an obvious career year. I guarantee a bunch of people are out there right now going "sure CJ could get 2000+ again why not?" - and go on to explain why he could/will get that or get very close to it. Or even surpass it. :forehead slap:

Edited by BeeR
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Someone who you know will get goal line carries and has more than a 1 season track record?

...and isn't about to sniff 78 catches again this year? Exactly.

 

PS he should be fine and is high on my list too, but a perfect example. Look at people predicting even bigger things after he cracked 2000 total yds and 78 catches last year. Good luck w/that.

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Not a really good example because he had career years in 03, 04, and 05. Each year got better,

True but the year he went all world with 2000 yards and and 27 TDS and was everyones 1st or 2nd pick in the draft the next year what happens? 800 yards and 7 tds just a year removed from his "career year" or the best year of his career if you will... Just sayin

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...and isn't about to sniff 78 catches again this year? Exactly.

 

PS he should be fine and is high on my list too, but a perfect example. Look at people predicting even bigger things after he cracked 2000 total yds and 78 catches last year. Good luck w/that.

 

You guys make excellent points. Sometimes my gut tells me things and my gut is telling me that Rice will have a big year. My gut fails me from time to time though.. Mainly when I am trying to pick up women.

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