I went WR/WR/WR/TE/QB...

[Henry Muto]

Holding the sixth pick in one of the five FSWA industry leagues, I was prepared to go with Andre Johnson as my first pick. And I've gone WR/WR in the past with success, so in a PPR league I was comfortable with Brandon Marshall at 2.7. In a league where you start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and a flex and Steve Smith (NYG) still on the board at 3.6, I figured why not roll with roughly 20 points per game in catches alone.

 

This is where it got interesting. A combination of not being in love with the backs still on the board and thinking some of them might slide to me in later rounds convinced me to take Antonio Gates at 4.7. And with Matt Schaub still on the board in the fifth round (and getting 4 points for a TD pass), I found myself entering R6 with zero running backs on my roster. I quite likely would have gone with Justin Forsett there instead of Schaub, but Forsett went two picks before my selection.

 

So I made a list of a half-dozen backs I still liked and crossed my fingers. As luck would have it, I wound up with the top three names on that list over the next three rounds: CJ Spiller at 6.7, Michael Bush at 7.6, and Clinton Portis at 8.7. I missed out on guys like Reggie Bush (5.10) and Arian Foster (6.4) before taking Spiller; on Jerome Harrison (6.10) and Ahmad Bradshaw (6.11) before taking Bush; and on Cadillac Williams (7.11) before taking Portis.

 

As it stands now through eight rounds, my core starters would look like this:

Schaub; MBush and Spiller; AJ, Marshall, and SSmith (NYG); Gates

 

Other teams for comparison:

Brady; Rice and Greene; Colston, Housh, and TBD; Celek

Brees; Turner and Wells; SRice, Breaston, and VJax; TBD

Rivers; Addai and RBush; RMoss, Wallace, and Wayne; TBD

TBD; DWilliams and Gore; CJohnson, Nicks, and SSmith (CAR); Finley

Favre; Charles and PThomas; Maclin, RWhite, and Welker; Witten

Romo; CJohnson and Benson; DJackson, Bowe, and Driver; ODaniels

Cutler; AP and Mendenhall; Boldin, Sims-Walker, and TBD; VDavis

PManning; Mojo and RBrown; Austin, Ocho, and TBD; Carlson

Kolb; McCoy and Grant; Fitz, Harvin, and Jennings; TBD

EManning; Mathews and Forte; Crabtree, SMoss, Burress (yes, Plax); Shiancoe

Rodgers; SJax and Stewart; Meachem, Garçon, Aromashodu; DClark

 

I think Schaub earns me at least a draw at the QB position. There are maybe a couple teams that could put up a fight against my WRs, but both RMoss/Wayne/Wallace and Fitzgerald/Jennings/Harvin still need a TE so with Gates I'll dominate them there. Obviously my backs aren't pretty, but to complement those three WRs, a top-2 TE and a top-5 QB I don't need much.

 

There are still some solid sleepers on the board at a couple spots who could help at my flex (rather than bank on Portis every week), but those are essentially the cores of each team in the league. Did I shoot myself in the foot waiting 67 picks to take a running back? Or will my trio of 100-catch wideouts and elite TE more than make up the difference?

 

2V

Good job 2V, I like to see that people are not sheep and can think of going outside the box.

 

Spiller is a great pick for PPR.

[champ48win]

I love the WR/WR/WR picks. I selected 5th in my $100 PPR league and ended up with some very quality WR's. I took A.J. in the 1st, B Marsh in the 2nd and Welker in the 3rd. I traded Welker away for Rivers and Floyd will start in my 3rd WR position. All 3 of them had 100+ receptions last year and they should provide excellent coverage for my sketchy RB's.

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

I did you one better last night in a high stakes $500 entry fee draft.

 

I took my 1st RB at pick 83 (7.11)

 

Yes folks that is correct my 1st RB in a $500 entry free league at the end of the 7th round.

 

I went

 

WR-WR-TE-TE-QB-WR

 

Will I live to tell about it ? Time will only tell.

 

That second TE makes no sense to me. Do you get bonus points for TEs or something?

[Thews40]

That second TE makes no sense to me. Do you get bonus points for TEs or something?

More value was placed on TE's this year IMO as they went much higher. The dual threat TE by taking your second TE in the 5th or 6th (in my case earlier) forces a TE run. but one has to be a flex for it to work. There were more good TE's this year over last, and IMO people that lived with a Zach Miller or less last year felt the sting by having this position lacking. JMHO, but outside of the top 8 or so the week-to-week expected result isn't very good. Unlike the ability to pick up a WR3, getting a consistent TE after the draft is very difficult and hard to trade for.

 

Just a hunch: Heap will have value this year.

Edited September 8, 2010 by Thews40

[Big Country]

More value was placed on TE's this year IMO as they went much higher. The dual threat TE by taking your second TE in the 5th or 6th (in my case earlier) forces a TE run. but one has to be a flex for it to work. There were more good TE's this year over last, and IMO people that lived with a Zach Miller or less last year felt the sting by having this position lacking. JMHO, but outside of the top 8 or so the week-to-week expected result isn't very good. Unlike the ability to pick up a WR3, getting a consistent TE after the draft is very difficult and hard to trade for.

 

Just a hunch: Heap will have value this year.

 

 

Not only does one have to be a flex, but they would also have to regularly outscore the RBs and WRs available at that pick for it to make sense. And that is very league dependent. Leagues that do things like 2PPR for TEs, with all others at 1 PPR, etc. see those top 8 TEs outscoring WRs and RBs available at that pick. Leagues that are not PPR or are flat PPR, and it is a less viable strategy, as those TEs are not as likely to outscore the RBs and WRs available at the same pick.

[Thews40]

Not only does one have to be a flex, but they would also have to regularly outscore the RBs and WRs available at that pick for it to make sense. And that is very league dependent. Leagues that do things like 2PPR for TEs, with all others at 1 PPR, etc. see those top 8 TEs outscoring WRs and RBs available at that pick. Leagues that are not PPR or are flat PPR, and it is a less viable strategy, as those TEs are not as likely to outscore the RBs and WRs available at the same pick.

To your point, you have to start one TE. If your TE was picked in the 14th and your starter is Bo Scaife, this is who will earn points all year long. If you insert a guy like Witten over Scaife and pair that with a RB off the wire, which will net you more points... your better RB/WR, or the combo with the good TE every week? The point is depth at position. There are a lot of teams with depth at RB and WR, and if there's a lot of depth it came with a price at QB or TE. If you have two stud TE's and need to trade one, it's easier IMO than needing a stud TE and having a RB or WR to trade. There aren't many teams with a extra stud TE, and if a guy like LT hits, it covers the delta. It'll all come out in the end, but the stud TE draft strategy is viable... even to the RB/RB/RB guys... not that there's anything wrong with that.

[Big Country]

To your point, you have to start one TE. If your TE was picked in the 14th and your starter is Bo Scaife, this is who will earn points all year long. If you insert a guy like Witten over Scaife and pair that with a RB off the wire, which will net you more points... your better RB/WR, or the combo with the good TE every week? The point is depth at position. There are a lot of teams with depth at RB and WR, and if there's a lot of depth it came with a price at QB or TE. If you have two stud TE's and need to trade one, it's easier IMO than needing a stud TE and having a RB or WR to trade. There aren't many teams with a extra stud TE, and if a guy like LT hits, it covers the delta. It'll all come out in the end, but the stud TE draft strategy is viable... even to the RB/RB/RB guys... not that there's anything wrong with that.

 

 

I never said it wasn't a viable strategy, provided the league is set up in such a way that one can make use of it.

 

Those key things being:

 

1. A flex spot that allows a 2nd TE to be started.

 

If the 2nd TE can't be started, than you are wasting an early pick on a bench player, and pushing the round in which you do draft your other starters back by at least a round. Relying on being able to "trade" one of these guys later to make up for that requires not only both of them performing well enough to allow you to be able to deal one, but also to make one of them desireable enough for another owner to want, as well as finding a trade partner that not only needs a TE but also has assets to trade in a position that you need. That's a lot of "ifs" that need to fall into place to justify taking a 2nd TE early if you can not put them in your starting lineup.

 

 

2. For the scoring to be set up in such a manner that the 2nd TE that you are starting at the flex would outscore the RB/WR you could have drafted at that time.

 

Looking at last year's stats, and applying the Huddle PPR scoring system, the #8 TE scored 191 points. There were 19 running backs and 23 receivers that scored above this mark. Players available much later in most cases when you are advocating using as high as a 3rd and 4th round choice for TE/TE. So, while I am grabbing likely higher scoring RBs and WRs for my starting RB and WR spots, I am able to use that 6h or 7th round pick on an RB or WR that will fill in the flex spot and score at the level of your 4th/5th round TE, while you are filling in your starting RB and WR spots with players taken 2+ rounds after I am taking them.

 

This is why I stated that scoring system is important, and in leagues that have tiered PPR or adjusted TE yardage, it makes your strategy more viable as TEs in general score more, thus that 2nd TE you take is more likely to outscore that RB or WR I take 2-3 rounds later. However, in more "standard' leagues where all positions get the same yardage and reception points, the math just does not support the strategy.

 

Obviously the caveat stands as with all things that the biggest factor is actually selecting the players that do perform to, or preferably above, their projections, ala Ray Rice and Miles Austin last year.

 

 

And before you go on your standard rant about how I must be a close minded RB/RB/RB type of guy, I actually applied the above criteria when looking at my leagues, and in BDITH, where we do have tiered PPR (2 per for TE, 1 per for WR and 0.25 per for RBs) I did take 2nd TEs quite early in all of the drafts and did target TEs in the auction portion of the league.

 

To blanketly claim that TE/TE early is a good strategy in any type of league is simply ludicrous, there are too many factors that go into it to make such a claim valid. Are there instances where it makes sense? That is a resounding yes. Are there instances where it makes no sense at all? The answer is again yes.

[Thews40]

I never said it wasn't a viable strategy, provided the league is set up in such a way that one can make use of it.

 

Those key things being:

 

1. A flex spot that allows a 2nd TE to be started.

 

If the 2nd TE can't be started, than you are wasting an early pick on a bench player, and pushing the round in which you do draft your other starters back by at least a round. Relying on being able to "trade" one of these guys later to make up for that requires not only both of them performing well enough to allow you to be able to deal one, but also to make one of them desireable enough for another owner to want, as well as finding a trade partner that not only needs a TE but also has assets to trade in a position that you need. That's a lot of "ifs" that need to fall into place to justify taking a 2nd TE early if you can not put them in your starting lineup.

Agree with this... must be able to use TE as a flex.

 

2. For the scoring to be set up in such a manner that the 2nd TE that you are starting at the flex would outscore the RB/WR you could have drafted at that time.

 

Looking at last year's stats, and applying the Huddle PPR scoring system, the #8 TE scored 191 points. There were 19 running backs and 23 receivers that scored above this mark. Players available much later in most cases when you are advocating using as high as a 3rd and 4th round choice for TE/TE. So, while I am grabbing likely higher scoring RBs and WRs for my starting RB and WR spots, I am able to use that 6h or 7th round pick on an RB or WR that will fill in the flex spot and score at the level of your 4th/5th round TE, while you are filling in your starting RB and WR spots with players taken 2+ rounds after I am taking them.

If your point is PPR only, I agree. If you want to paint the ratio of what could have been if you went WR ro RB, there's too many variables.

 

 

This is why I stated that scoring system is important, and in leagues that have tiered PPR or adjusted TE yardage, it makes your strategy more viable as TEs in general score more, thus that 2nd TE you take is more likely to outscore that RB or WR I take 2-3 rounds later. However, in more "standard' leagues where all positions get the same yardage and reception points, the math just does not support the strategy.

 

Obviously the caveat stands as with all things that the biggest factor is actually selecting the players that do perform to, or preferably above, their projections, ala Ray Rice and Miles Austin last year.

What does Rice and Miles have to do with TE drafting? Are you claiming the ability to hit every time with the sleepers?

 

 

And before you go on your standard rant about how I must be a close minded RB/RB/RB type of guy, I actually applied the above criteria when looking at my leagues, and in BDITH, where we do have tiered PPR (2 per for TE, 1 per for WR and 0.25 per for RBs) I did take 2nd TEs quite early in all of the drafts and did target TEs in the auction portion of the league.

You will be justly rewarded.

 

To blanketly claim that TE/TE early is a good strategy in any type of league is simply ludicrous, there are too many factors that go into it to make such a claim valid. Are there instances where it makes sense? That is a resounding yes. Are there instances where it makes no sense at all? The answer is again yes.

The end of the year will tell the tale, but you always have an out with a trade. None of this is iron clad nor is any of it ludicrous as you assert. It takes a flex and PPR and is as valid as the stud RB stratergizing.

[cre8tiff]

Holding the sixth pick in one of the five FSWA industry leagues, I was prepared to go with Andre Johnson as my first pick. And I've gone WR/WR in the past with success, so in a PPR league I was comfortable with Brandon Marshall at 2.7. In a league where you start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and a flex and Steve Smith (NYG) still on the board at 3.6, I figured why not roll with roughly 20 points per game in catches alone.

 

This is where it got interesting. A combination of not being in love with the backs still on the board and thinking some of them might slide to me in later rounds convinced me to take Antonio Gates at 4.7. And with Matt Schaub still on the board in the fifth round (and getting 4 points for a TD pass), I found myself entering R6 with zero running backs on my roster. I quite likely would have gone with Justin Forsett there instead of Schaub, but Forsett went two picks before my selection.

 

So I made a list of a half-dozen backs I still liked and crossed my fingers. As luck would have it, I wound up with the top three names on that list over the next three rounds: CJ Spiller at 6.7, Michael Bush at 7.6, and Clinton Portis at 8.7. I missed out on guys like Reggie Bush (5.10) and Arian Foster (6.4) before taking Spiller; on Jerome Harrison (6.10) and Ahmad Bradshaw (6.11) before taking Bush; and on Cadillac Williams (7.11) before taking Portis.

 

As it stands now through eight rounds, my core starters would look like this:

Schaub; MBush and Spiller; AJ, Marshall, and SSmith (NYG); Gates

 

Other teams for comparison:

Brady; Rice and Greene; Colston, Housh, and TBD; Celek

Brees; Turner and Wells; SRice, Breaston, and VJax; TBD

Rivers; Addai and RBush; RMoss, Wallace, and Wayne; TBD

TBD; DWilliams and Gore; CJohnson, Nicks, and SSmith (CAR); Finley

Favre; Charles and PThomas; Maclin, RWhite, and Welker; Witten

Romo; CJohnson and Benson; DJackson, Bowe, and Driver; ODaniels

Cutler; AP and Mendenhall; Boldin, Sims-Walker, and TBD; VDavis

PManning; Mojo and RBrown; Austin, Ocho, and TBD; Carlson

Kolb; McCoy and Grant; Fitz, Harvin, and Jennings; TBD

EManning; Mathews and Forte; Crabtree, SMoss, Burress (yes, Plax); Shiancoe

Rodgers; SJax and Stewart; Meachem, Garçon, Aromashodu; DClark

 

I think Schaub earns me at least a draw at the QB position. There are maybe a couple teams that could put up a fight against my WRs, but both RMoss/Wayne/Wallace and Fitzgerald/Jennings/Harvin still need a TE so with Gates I'll dominate them there. Obviously my backs aren't pretty, but to complement those three WRs, a top-2 TE and a top-5 QB I don't need much.

 

There are still some solid sleepers on the board at a couple spots who could help at my flex (rather than bank on Portis every week), but those are essentially the cores of each team in the league. Did I shoot myself in the foot waiting 67 picks to take a running back? Or will my trio of 100-catch wideouts and elite TE more than make up the difference?

 

2V

Schaub was still around in round FIVE?!?!

 

Though maybe not so shocking with only 4 points on passing TDs.

 

Who is your backup QB?