? about Ryan Matthews and OchoCinco

[phelle]

I am in a 12 team PPR league with standard scoring (6-points for QB TD). I had the #9 pick. Frank Gore dropped to me in the first round, and I happily took him. When my second pick came around, Aaron Rodgers was sitting there, and I had to have him. Where it got interesting was that Ryan Matthews dropped all the way down to me with the 3.09 pick. Am I missing something or did I just get a really big steal? Again, the 6.04 pick came around. Let me preface that I was not very high on him at the start of the draft, but Ochocinco was still around for me at in the 6th. Is this another really good pick up for me, or is he just not nearly as valuable this year?

 

Would love any feedback.

[Bronco Billy]

While I think you got good value, I don't know if you stole Matthews. ChadOchoCincoJohnson on the other hand looks like a steal to me.

 

People are figuring Matthews to be the bell cow in SD, but I see Sproles with an increased role, as has been the case in each of the 4 years that he has been in the league. That doesn't mean he's going to touch the ball a ton, but 120 carries and 60 catches feels about right, especially given his incremental progression in SD. That's 15 touches a game, which is probably about right given his stature and that he'll be returning punts and kicks.

 

There's some downside to Matthews beyond losing touches to Sproles. SD doesn't have the run dominant blocking they used to, and now with the rift with Jackson there isn't a WR on the team that scares anyone. That means aside from accounting for Gates, other teams can focus on playing a balanced D. SD has also gone progressively away from running the ball over the past 4 years, averaging incrementally fewer carries each year, every year for the top 2 RBs.

 

That probably leaves somewhere around about 250 carries and 22 catches for Matthews. That's a pretty solid work load for the rookie, and would fall pretty much in line with what SD wants to feed its RBs now that they have morphed into a passing team. That ought to be enough to get Matthews to about 1250 total yds. Throw in 8 total Tds and you're probably in RB14 range somehere. That's a very good RB2, but not the RB1 you thought you stole.

 

COCJ on the other hand is a steal in the 6th round. The guy has proven himself to be almost a lock to be a FF WR1, but there is the presence of TO to steal some workload. That means COCJ morphs into a great WR2 with some room for upside - and TO could actually help COCJ's value in that other teams can't simply game plan him out by relentless double teaming, especially since Shipley has emerged. What does limit his upside is that CIN has gone to a smash-mouth run first team. But the guy has proven himself to simply be too much for almost all pro DBs to handle and there's no reason to think you won't get his solid reliable performance.

 

You've got the nucleus for a very nice team there.

[Gilm]

Mathews is a great 2 - Ocho is a solid 2 but not great. If Ocho is your 1 then I'd keep an eye on a couple sleepers at WR....

[phelle]

I also have Steve Smith of Carolina and Pierre Garcon. That leaves Derrick Mason and Mohamed Massaquoi on my bench as back-ups.

[Rovers]

Gore was a steal for sure, but I think Mathews was too. His ADP is 20 @RB10. I think that might be high, especially the 20 ranking, but I can't drop him past RB12 to 13 in any case, so he is at worst, a stellar RB2. SD has a fairly rough SOS as Oakland's rush D is improved and Denver is tough to run on, but he is one of the few RB's that should get 300 touches, even with Sproles hanging around. He's played well in preseason, something I DO pay attention to when it comes to rookies.

 

I'm not a big Ocho fan (although I likes his whole tweet thing he has goin on) but how the heck did he fall to the 6th?

 

Never get too cocky, but how much you win for first?

 

PS: Just saw your other WR's, and I'm not nuts about that corp. I don't like Smith's QB, Garrard just sucks roots on the road, and Manning has too many targets for my liking. You may find Mason to be more consistant than either of them.

Edited August 30, 2010 by Rovers

[Avernus]

While I think you got good value, I don't know if you stole Matthews. ChadOchoCincoJohnson on the other hand looks like a steal to me.

 

People are figuring Matthews to be the bell cow in SD, but I see Sproles with an increased role, as has been the case in each of the 4 years that he has been in the league. That doesn't mean he's going to touch the ball a ton, but 120 carries and 60 catches feels about right, especially given his incremental progression in SD. That's 15 touches a game, which is probably about right given his stature and that he'll be returning punts and kicks.

 

There's some downside to Matthews beyond losing touches to Sproles. SD doesn't have the run dominant blocking they used to, and now with the rift with Jackson there isn't a WR on the team that scares anyone. That means aside from accounting for Gates, other teams can focus on playing a balanced D. SD has also gone progressively away from running the ball over the past 4 years, averaging incrementally fewer carries each year, every year for the top 2 RBs.

 

That probably leaves somewhere around about 250 carries and 22 catches for Matthews. That's a pretty solid work load for the rookie, and would fall pretty much in line with what SD wants to feed its RBs now that they have morphed into a passing team. That ought to be enough to get Matthews to about 1250 total yds. Throw in 8 total Tds and you're probably in RB14 range somehere. That's a very good RB2, but not the RB1 you thought you stole.

 

COCJ on the other hand is a steal in the 6th round. The guy has proven himself to be almost a lock to be a FF WR1, but there is the presence of TO to steal some workload. That means COCJ morphs into a great WR2 with some room for upside - and TO could actually help COCJ's value in that other teams can't simply game plan him out by relentless double teaming, especially since Shipley has emerged. What does limit his upside is that CIN has gone to a smash-mouth run first team. But the guy has proven himself to simply be too much for almost all pro DBs to handle and there's no reason to think you won't get his solid reliable performance.

 

You've got the nucleus for a very nice team there.

 

 

I thought Mathews caught the ball pretty well when he was out there...and as long as Sproles is the KR, I don't believe in him getting more than 50 receptions...

 

I can see Mathews with over 50 receptions because the OL is bad enough to make 2nd down a passing down and he'll be out there....Sproles will be more of a wildcard and sort of like what Reggie Bush was last season...