DeAngelo Williams vs. Jonathan Stewart

[MTSuper7]

It seems like every piece I read about these two is that they are in an even time share. Even the Huddle write-up about Williams mentions that the emergence of J. Stew has forced the Panthers to play the two at a 1:1 ratio. I call BS on this. I've been burned by John Fox too many times to believe a 1:1 ratio is going to happen this year. Last year, the stats only look like a 1:1 split because Williams got hurt. If you count only the games that both Stewart and Williams played, Williams had just over a 63:37 ratio edge in the split. That's only a shade under 2/3 of the carries going to Williams. I'm convinced that John Fox's love of veterans will win out once again and that DeAngelo Williams will put up elite numbers in a contract year (and facing an easier schedule this year). Everyone talks about J. Stew being the better value pick in round 4-5, but I love that Williams is slipping to the middle of the 2nd round in a lot of leagues, and he's a solid value IMO anywhere in the 2nd round. What say you about the Carolina backfield? Are you buying DeAngelo as a #1 RB with confidence or do you believe the timeshare will even out (or maybe both)?

[BeeR]

I agree that Wms is underrated and Stewart overrated - but again injuries could throw a monkey wrench into it either way. I would have nabbed Wms if he fell, but no such luck.

[euphy]

I would have gotten both, but if I had to take either of the two... I would take DWill.

[piratesownninjas]

I agree that Wms is underrated and Stewart overrated - but again injuries could throw a monkey wrench into it either way. I would have nabbed Wms if he fell, but no such luck.

Curious... are the "illia" keys of your keyboard broken?

Edited September 2, 2010 by piratesownninjas

[kpholmes]

PAGING OUR RESIDENT JSTEW NUT-HUGGER! Edited September 2, 2010 by kpholmes

[lennykravitz2004]

Williams for the first half of the season with Stewart getting around 5-8 touches per game and Williams about 25. Around mid-season, creeping towards a 50/50 as Stewart continues to show improvement from his surgery. Jus' my

[i_am_the_swammi]

While you are correct that the 2009 totals even-split was due to Stewart getting a bunch of carries at the end of the year, that doesn't tell the whoile story.

 

The part you seem to miss in your analysis is that those last few games went a long way in allowing Stewart to prove he is an exceptional candidate to be able to run the ball. They have an opportunity to keep both backs fresh, ride the hot hand, whatever you want to call it. I think some games you'll see a 75/25 split to Williams, and in other games, a 75/25 split to Stewart...whoever seems to be having the most success with their particular running style. And as we have seen, either can put up monster numbers with just a handful of carries. They are both startable, IMO, in any format under any circumstance other than injury.

 

DWill likely has a little more value, based on his history of success....but Stewart certainly wouldn't be a complete surprise as the guy with equal, or better stats, as the season ends.

[gardenthug]

It's worth noting that Stewart has yet to miss an NFL game. The same can't be said for DWill.

If one of these guys goes down, the other could very well turn into the top scoring RB for 2010.

[billay]

Dehlomme's touches had been decreasing yearly, down to 320 last year. The panthers rushed the ball 525 times last year. Any reason to think that: 1) Moore will be relied on more heavily this year than Delhomme was last? and 2) that as a result, the Panther's rushing attempts in 2010 would go down?

 

Seems as though there will plenty of RB touches to go around for either side of a 60/40 split.

[tazinib1]

[BearBroncos]

I'm no nut hugger, but I am HUGE on DWill this year. He has greater cut ability and burst over Stew, hence the monster 08 season. The numbers were split because of the injury to DWill. That is a none issue this year, but then, so is the injury to Stew.

 

I'm still predicting 1500+ yards for Dwill and 18 TD's and 900+ yards for Stew and 10+ TD's which is still pretty nice numbers for Stew.

[peepinmofo]

Curious... are the "illia" keys of your keyboard broken?

[MTSuper7]

While you are correct that the 2009 totals even-split was due to Stewart getting a bunch of carries at the end of the year, that doesn't tell the whoile story.

 

The part you seem to miss in your analysis is that those last few games went a long way in allowing Stewart to prove he is an exceptional candidate to be able to run the ball. They have an opportunity to keep both backs fresh, ride the hot hand, whatever you want to call it. I think some games you'll see a 75/25 split to Williams, and in other games, a 75/25 split to Stewart...whoever seems to be having the most success with their particular running style. And as we have seen, either can put up monster numbers with just a handful of carries. They are both startable, IMO, in any format under any circumstance other than injury.

 

DWill likely has a little more value, based on his history of success....but Stewart certainly wouldn't be a complete surprise as the guy with equal, or better stats, as the season ends.

 

See, I don't disagree with this, but for the life of me someone needs to tell John Fox. I'm telling you, I won't believe that Stewart gets an even split or consistently has more carries than DWill in a game with Fox calling the shots. Fox stuck with DeShaun Foster too long, and Stephen Davis before him. Picking Stewart thinking he has the upside for getting half the carries is flawed strategy IMO. I actually would be surprised if, assuming they both stay healthy, JStew has better stats. He will favor the veteran. He always has.

Edited September 2, 2010 by MTSuper7

[electricrelish]

See, I don't disagree with this, but for the life of me someone needs to tell John Fox. I'm telling you, I won't believe that Stewart gets an even split or consistently has more carries than DWill in a game with Fox calling the shots. Fox stuck with DeShaun Foster too long, and Stephen Davis before him. Picking Stewart thinking he has the upside for getting half the carries is flawed strategy IMO. I actually would be surprised if, assuming they both stay healthy, JStew has better stats. He will favor the veteran. He always has.

 

You're absolutely correct on this one. DeAngelo Williams showed more burst and had a better YPC when DeShaun Foster was the starter, but the carries did not go up for Williams until Foster was no longer on the roster. In most of my drafts, folks are passing up RB1's to grab Stewart. That's a good move if it's a start-up dynasty since Stewart is only 23 years old. For redraft, it's a mistake to reach for Stewart early. Williams is still the guy.

[Thews40]

Are you buying DeAngelo as a #1 RB with confidence or do you believe the timeshare will even out (or maybe both)?

He's a #1RB, even if they split, but if they both stay healthy they split carries... that's the new NFL RBBC format to make them both last longer. Winning games is the objective and having them both take the load helps win games.

[i_am_the_swammi]

He's a #1RB, even if they split, but if they both stay healthy they split carries... that's the new NFL RBBC format to make them both last longer. Winning games is the objective and having them both take the load helps win games.

 

What interest does Carolina have in making Williams last longer, since they probably lose him after this year to free agency?

 

I think they split for one simple reason...both are worthy. It may come down to Williams getting more of the work in the first half of the year, with Stewart taking on more of a role once Williams gets dinged (which he will if he gets 20-25 touches per game over the first 8 games).

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

i drafted dwill at 4 overall last year...his injury kinda cost me a shot at winning the league...not only did losing my 1st round pick and rb hurt....but the team i was tied for first with(with 4 weeks to go) had stewart on his bench....and had the golden opporunity to insert him and he went off....and i tumbled to 3rd place finish.....

 

that being said...i hold no grudge...i still like the guy...if hes sitting in the right spot im on him....if gross and otah can stay healthy(and dwill himself) dwill could be a huge value in the 2nd round

[BearBroncos]

That's the risk we all have to deal with. Having Manning is awesome until playoff time. Do you start him and take the chance he will cost you a championship or do you take a chance on your #2 QB, A. Smith against Minneasota defense in getting you a title?

 

I sat Dwill even though he was listed to play much of the later part of the season. He didn't look right and I had a little depth. It also cost me not playing him, but I made it further than if I would have played him. He is healthy this year. He is a stud. However, it's a judgement call which makes great owners.

Edited September 2, 2010 by BearBroncos

[Brentastic]

This thread is nearly identical to my thread from 2008. I layed it out back then (and was right about DWill).

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...t=0&start=0

 

Don't doubt DeAngelo Williams - he's a stud.

[MTSuper7]

This thread is nearly identical to my thread from 2008. I layed it out back then (and was right about DWill).

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...t=0&start=0

 

Don't doubt DeAngelo Williams - he's a stud.

 

And you were right about John Fox. All the evidence in the world that Stewart is a better fit, more talented, etc. wouldn't matter. I get the feeling we'll be having a JStew vs. Mike Goodson thread next year or the year after.

[MikesVikes]

I have selected either Williams or Stewart in each of my three drafts so far so I must believe that both will handle some of the workload.

 

I've taken D Will with a 2.01 pick as the 7th RB to be picked. He's ranked 6th in the scoring format of this league.

 

I've taken Stewart in two leagues. Got him as the 21st RB selected, factoring in keepers, while he's the 17th ranked RB in that scoring format.

I've taken Stewart with a 5.07 pick in another league. The 20th RB selected in the draft where he was the 21st ranked RB in that scoring format.

Edited September 2, 2010 by MikesVikes

[BearBroncos]

I have selected either Williams or Stewart in each of my three drafts so far so I must believe that both will handle some of the workload.

 

I've taken D Will with a 2.01 pick as the 7th RB to be picked. He's ranked 6th in the scoring format of this league.

 

I've taken Stewart in two leagues. Got him as the 21st RB selected, factoring in keepers, while he's the 17th ranked RB in that scoring format.

I've taken Stewart with a 5.07 pick in another league. The 20th RB selected in the draft where he was the 21st ranked RB in that scoring format.

 

I suspect I'll be able to get Stewart in week 4 or 5 on the cheap when he's gotten a mere 20 points while Dwill has kicked booty. And then, hopefully get the payoff at the end of the season on him.

 

I'll then look at Stew on my keeper list for next year. He is a stud, just won't be behind another stud named Williams.

[tazinib1]

And you were right about John Fox. All the evidence in the world that Stewart is a better fit, more talented, etc. wouldn't matter. I get the feeling we'll be having a JStew vs. Mike Goodson thread next year or the year after.

 

Never say that again mister. Goodson being compared to Stew? Blasphemy!!

[Brentastic]

Never say that again mister. Goodson being compared to Stew? Blasphemy!!

You should go back and read that thread I posted from 2008 and eat some crow.

[tazinib1]

You should go back and read that thread I posted from 2008 and eat some crow.

 

I did eat crow in 08. Are you prepared to eat crow in 2010?