How did miles austin get so good

[rattsass]

Uhhhmm.......his ADP in big boy leagues isn't first round.

Okay, if you say so. Here are the WRs that came off the board in the first round of the draft. A.Johnson/Moss/Austin/White/Wayne/B. Marshall. Calvin Johnson went 2.1. So tell me, had I not taken Austin would I still have got him in the 2nd round?

 

I'm not telling everybody to go and draft Austin in the 1st round. I know the format I was drafting in, and when 7 WRs came off the board with the first 13 picks my strategy was validated in my mind. If you are going to play a WCOFF league and think you are getting Austin late 2nd round you better have a plan B because Plan A is likely to get blown all to hell.

[whomper]

that was a fun read and nothing much has changed even though the players have a little bit...

 

Romo has 1 playoff win under his belt as does Garrard (I think) but Romo is and has been pretty much what I said back in 2008 - a Pro-Bowl QB

 

I even made Dallas my 2010 Superbowl favorites in the NFC....about a month ago and now I'm back to the Packers

 

 

I gave up the is Romo better than garrard argument pretty early because IMO there is no comparison. My argument shifted to Romo. While he does have talent around him, the faces have changed but the numbers havent. This all without the benefit of a solid 2 wr. The dude can flat out play . He has improvements to be made still in the head as far as the choking and winning big games etc but I think last year took hugh strides. he was lethal down the stretch. He got a playoff win which was a big monkey off of the back. They got murdered by Minny. he didnt have a good game but he ran for his life for 3 quarters . The minny d beat the piss out of Dallas. Once Flozell went down and his nuts were removed from Jarad Allens forehead, it got even worse

[Bronco Billy]

Why am I getting the impression that anyone who reaches into round 1 to take Austin is going to be on the outside looking in when FF playoffs start?

 

BTW, Austin's ADP is currently 2.08 in a 12 team league.

[Avernus]

I gave up the is Romo better than garrard argument pretty early because IMO there is no comparison. My argument shifted to Romo. While he does have talent around him, the faces have changed but the numbers havent. This all without the benefit of a solid 2 wr. The dude can flat out play . He has improvements to be made still in the head as far as the choking and winning big games etc but I think last year took hugh strides. he was lethal down the stretch. He got a playoff win which was a big monkey off of the back. They got murdered by Minny. he didnt have a good game but he ran for his life for 3 quarters . The minny d beat the piss out of Dallas. Once Flozell went down and his nuts were removed from Jarad Allens forehead, it got even worse

 

 

it didn't hurt that Dallas completely owned the Eagles last year....

 

the names may have changed a little, but the talent pool is the same, if not better around Romo now than it was when the argument took place...especially if Bryant can pick up the offense by week 8...

 

but I pretty much made most of my points in that thread and it might be 2 years later, but I found myself agreeing with what I said even though I completely forgot about that discussion....

 

still a very good thread to read even two years down the line...

[rattsass]

Why am I getting the impression that anyone who reaches into round 1 to take Austin is going to be on the outside looking in when FF playoffs start?

 

BTW, Austin's ADP is currently 2.08 in a 12 team league.

 

I forget, what was Austins ADP last year?

 

And where was his ranking on a per game basis?

Edited September 2, 2010 by rattsass

[Avernus]

Why am I getting the impression that anyone who reaches into round 1 to take Austin is going to be on the outside looking in when FF playoffs start?

 

BTW, Austin's ADP is currently 2.08 in a 12 team league.

 

 

I'd feel maybe a little uneasy if I took Austin with my 1st pick because he still has not even a full year of production under his belt and this is why he isn't in Tier 1...

 

Rattsass mentioned how there were more than a handful of WR's drafted in the 1st round, then I may have ended up drafting another position as the talent pool at WR has already thinned out....the value might be at RB at this point..

[whomper]

it didn't hurt that Dallas completely owned the Eagles last year....

 

 

It didnt hurt at all. In fact, it felt great. Very Great

[Avernus]

It didnt hurt at all. In fact, it felt great. Very Great

 

 

[Bronco Billy]

I forget, what was Austins ADP last year?

 

And where was his ranking on a per game basis?

 

I wasn't aware that "big boy" leagues allow last year's stats to be used in this year's competition. Drafting must be awfully easy in those "big boy" leagues...

[electricrelish]

Years ago we had a David garrard thread that I could never seem to find again. I think h8 started it (big john ? ) In that thread it was said by many that Garrard was better than Romo and the only reason Romo had better numbers was because Romo had T.O and better weapons and that Jac was a run driven team. I agree with the fact that Jac relies more on the run. So T.O leaves and Romo I guess just got lucky again and found Miles Austin. I think Austin is very talented. I think the jury is still somewhat out and I would like to see him have a year like last year or close to it before I completely drown in the kool aid. I will say this though. He is a product of a system that allows a # 1 wr to thrive and he has a QB that can flat out make a star out of you because he knows how to make a big play and throws a nice deep ball. Im not talking about Romo choking and all of that. I am just talking about a guy that makes his weapons better. It is undenyable. Avernus fought me to the death that it was T.O and not Romo that accounted for those stats. Now the faces have changed but the stats remain the same...or better

 

Well said. People forget how inept the Cowboys offense was before Romo took the reigns. Romo does not get the credit he deserves.

[Avernus]

Well said. People forget how inept the Cowboys offense was before Romo took the reigns. Romo does not get the credit he deserves.

 

 

yeah, it's not like Bledsoe was playing terribly...all Romo did was hit the open receiver while he was protected more than adequately....which is something Bledsoe failed to do while standing back there almost as long as McNabb does...

 

the only thing is that McNabb was able to run - something Bledsoe was incapable of...

[rattsass]

I wasn't aware that "big boy" leagues allow last year's stats to be used in this year's competition. Drafting must be awfully easy in those "big boy" leagues...

Okay now we are sidetracked. Back to point. Here is the last WCOFF draft from MDC:

 

R1 P1 Colonel Angus Johnson, Chris RB TEN 59s

R1 P2 red right 88 Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 55s

R1 P3 The Terry Tate Experience Rice, Ray RB BAL AutoSelect

R1 P4 Hurry up! Johnson, Andre WR HOU 28s

R1 P5 FT Gore, Frank RB SF 59s

R1 P6 Forearm Shiver Turner, Michael RB ATL 18s

R1 P7 Lambada Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAX 16s

R1 P8 vegas Moss, Randy WR NE 19s

R1 P9 Man likes to play chess...lets get him rocks Austin, Miles WR DAL 59s

R1 P10 T-BAGS Johnson, Calvin WR DET 9s

R1 P11 Blackshirts Rodgers, Aaron QB GB 11s

R1 P12 CAN'T DO IT White, Roddy WR ATL 6s

 

And the one before that:

 

R1 P1 running w/ scissors Johnson, Chris RB TEN 9s

R1 P2 special edward Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 5s

R1 P3 Helmut's Helmets Rice, Ray RB BAL AutoSelect

R1 P4 Albino midget wrestling squad Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAX AutoSelect

R1 P5 Green Machine Johnson, Andre WR HOU 8s

R1 P6 pokin' fun Gore, Frank RB SF AutoSelect

R1 P7 No offseason for me Jackson, Steven RB STL AutoSelect

R1 P8 drafting hungover Turner, Michael RB ATL 13s

R1 P9 Better than u Moss, Randy WR NE AutoSelect

R1 P10 Matt Millen's Fantasy Team Rodgers, Aaron QB GB AutoSelect

R1 P11 doughboys Manning, Peyton QB IND 20s

R1 P12 Wingless Airplane Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI AutoSelect

 

R2 P1 Wingless Airplane Brees, Drew QB NO AutoSelect

R2 P2 doughboys Wayne, Reggie WR IND 19s

R2 P3 Matt Millen's Fantasy Team Johnson, Calvin WR DET AutoSelect

R2 P4 Better than u Austin, Miles WR DAL AutoSelect

 

I'm surprised an experienced and knowledgable player like yourself actually BELIEVES that ADPs are the same as ACTUAL DRAFTS. I'm just trying to warn people that regard the ADPs as gospel. Austin probably won't make it to the late 2nd round. Just an FYI -take it or leave it.

[bushwacked]

Okay, if you say so. Here are the WRs that came off the board in the first round of the draft. A.Johnson/Moss/Austin/White/Wayne/B. Marshall. Calvin Johnson went 2.1. So tell me, had I not taken Austin would I still have got him in the 2nd round?

 

I'm not telling everybody to go and draft Austin in the 1st round. I know the format I was drafting in, and when 7 WRs came off the board with the first 13 picks my strategy was validated in my mind. If you are going to play a WCOFF league and think you are getting Austin late 2nd round you better have a plan B because Plan A is likely to get blown all to hell.

 

I'm high on Ausitn. I also didn't say you should count on getting him late in the 2nd. Mock Draft Central currently has a WCOFF specific scoring ADP consisting fo 208 drafts and 2,496 drafters over the last 2 weeks, Austin is going as follows.

 

Pick 9: 1.9%

Pick 10: 3.8%

Pick 11: 3.8%

Pick 12: 2.9%

Pick 13: 5.3%

Pick 14: 19.7%

Pick 15: 8.2%

Pick 16: 7.7%

Pick 17: 1.9%

Pick 18: 2.4%

Pick 19: 1.9%

Pick 20: 2.4%

Pick 21: 1.4%

Pick 22: 2.4%

Pick 23: 2.4%

Pick 24: 1.0%

Pick 25: 2.4%

Pick 26: 13.5%

Pick 27: 11.1%

Pick 28: 3.8%

 

Austin is available in these Mocks at roughly 50% of the time at 2.6 or later; and can be picked at 3.1 through 3.3 generally 30% of the time.

 

I got Austin at 2.12 in a live all Huddle BOTH league last Sunday.

I play in big boy leagues. Austin is not lasting until late 2 or early 3 in those leagues. Never.

 

is not an accurate statement.

[rattsass]

Bushwacked- Yes but those totals are for all drafts. Half of those drafts are chock full of auto selects. Once the auto selects grab hold of the stats it is hard to move them. There are so few quality drafts with real people you just can't put so much stock in those numbers. Here is another WCOFF mock from AUG 30.

 

R1 P1 Colonel Angus Johnson, Chris RB TEN 58s

R1 P2 PS Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 9s

R1 P3 # 3 Rice, Ray RB BAL 8s

R1 P4 man-ram Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAX 44s

R1 P5 Ladies man Johnson, Andre WR HOU AutoSelect

R1 P6 Mil Mascaras Gore, Frank RB SF 16s

R1 P7 T-BONE Turner, Michael RB ATL 5s

R1 P8 Higgins Beach Bums Austin, Miles WR DAL 32s

R1 P9 Man likes to play chess...lets get him rocks Moss, Randy WR NE 15s

R1 P10 my team sux Rodgers, Aaron QB GB 12s

R1 P11 Blackshirts Wayne, Reggie WR IND 17s

R1 P12 CAN'T DO IT Marshall, Brandon WR MIA 4s

 

Only one auto select in this group.

 

BTW- Was the BOTH draft WCOFF rules and roster req.?

Edited September 2, 2010 by rattsass

[SheikYerbuti]

Okay now we are sidetracked. Back to point. Here is the last WCOFF draft from MDC:

 

R1 P1 Colonel Angus Johnson, Chris RB TEN 59s

R1 P2 red right 88 Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 55s

R1 P3 The Terry Tate Experience Rice, Ray RB BAL AutoSelect

R1 P4 Hurry up! Johnson, Andre WR HOU 28s

R1 P5 FT Gore, Frank RB SF 59s

R1 P6 Forearm Shiver Turner, Michael RB ATL 18s

R1 P7 Lambada Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAX 16s

R1 P8 vegas Moss, Randy WR NE 19s

R1 P9 Man likes to play chess...lets get him rocks Austin, Miles WR DAL 59s

R1 P10 T-BAGS Johnson, Calvin WR DET 9s

R1 P11 Blackshirts Rodgers, Aaron QB GB 11s

R1 P12 CAN'T DO IT White, Roddy WR ATL 6s

 

Even in a league with no PPR and 4 point passing TD's, Miles being drafted before both Rodgers and Brees seems. . .well. . .

[bushwacked]

Bushwacked- Yes but those totals are for all drafts. Half of those drafts are chock full of auto selects.

 

I didnt' know that. The whole reason I like MDC is they claim they only put qualifying drafts in their database and they claim to have stringent requirements on human participation Can you link me link me to the evidence of half of the draft being chock full of auto selects?

 

I guess the Huddlers I drafted with last Sunday were on auto-pilot also?

[electricrelish]

I gave up the is Romo better than garrard argument pretty early because IMO there is no comparison. My argument shifted to Romo. While he does have talent around him, the faces have changed but the numbers havent. This all without the benefit of a solid 2 wr. The dude can flat out play . He has improvements to be made still in the head as far as the choking and winning big games etc but I think last year took hugh strides. he was lethal down the stretch. He got a playoff win which was a big monkey off of the back. They got murdered by Minny. he didnt have a good game but he ran for his life for 3 quarters . The minny d beat the piss out of Dallas. Once Flozell went down and his nuts were removed from Jarad Allens forehead, it got even worse

 

Once again, very well said. And I'm not a Cowboys fan, but there's no denying that Romo is a truly talented and skilled QB. Folks will always blame Romo if the team doesn't achieve because, well, he's the QB, and that comes with the job. Sure he makes mistakes, but I think people lose sight of how talented Romo is. Last year, he was not a highly coveted QB, but he was my choice over Rivers and Cutler who were drafted ahead of him in most of my drafts.

 

Now, I'm not sure on the particulars, but it didn't sound good to me when they got rid of T.O., so Romo could develop more as the leader. I was disappointed in Romo, and thought that he may have been avoiding confrontation, but I really don't know. Maybe, I was expecting too much of him, and maybe Owens didn't want to be led. I've always been a T.O. fan, and I still am. I didn't like it when Dallas management let go of T.O., but I have to admit that it looks like it worked out for the best for everyone. Without that huge egotistical shadow, it allowed room for both Romo and Austin to step up. Romo has developed into a better leader. Even T.O. seems to have evolved. Now, that Owens is in Cincinnati, he's recaptured his love for the game.

[rattsass]

I didnt' know that. The whole reason I like MDC is they claim they only put qualifying drafts in their database and they claim to have stringent requirements on human participation Can you link me link me to the evidence of half of the draft being chock full of auto selects?

 

I guess the Huddlers I drafted with last Sunday were on auto-pilot also?

I ask again. Was the BOTH draft a league with WCOFF rules and roster requirements? Because otherwise it is apples and oranges.

[rattsass]

Oh, and as far as the MDC numbers? Go there, and punch in all WCOFF drafts from the last week and find me more than a handful that had all human beings drafting in them. That is the only evidence I have.

[bushwacked]

I ask again. Was the BOTH draft a league with WCOFF rules and roster requirements? Because otherwise it is apples and oranges.

 

Why don't you come up with the evidence to support your claim that MDC's is falsely and I'd imagin illegally (since you have to pay for some of the info) reporting qualifying drafts into their database and I'll see if I can scour up the league rules I drafted in last Sunday. Deal?

[Bronco Billy]

I'm surprised an experienced and knowledgable player like yourself actually BELIEVES that ADPs are the same as ACTUAL DRAFTS. I'm just trying to warn people that regard the ADPs as gospel. Austin probably won't make it to the late 2nd round. Just an FYI -take it or leave it.

 

And so we enjoin.

 

So you are saying that two WCOFF draft results have much higher credibility than mfl.com ADPs generated in at least 60% of drafts that occurred after August 25th? Because that's where I got my information. And I'd question 95% of the people spending such an enormous amount of money on FF as those engaged in WCOFF, thinking they can actually walk away as winners.

[Brentastic]

After skimming some of the comments, I'll add my $0.02:

 

Romo is a near-elite QB fantasty-wise, has been since he started. Miles Austin should be drafted as top 7 WR this year - a stud in every sense of the word. If you wait until he 'proves it another season', you will be behind the curve.

 

The Cowboys have one of the easiest passing schedules this year and unless their O-line completely fails (not out of the question) both Romo and Austin should produce elite numbers this year for their fantasy owners. The only risk here is the O-line. The players themselves are not risky becuase in my mind they have both proven their talent is legit. I realize Austin only proved it one season but he took over games. I've seen enough football to know that Austin is legit and he should be drafted as such.

[rattsass]

And so we enjoin.

 

So you are saying that two WCOFF draft results have much higher credibility than mfl.com ADPs generated in at least 60% of drafts that occurred after August 25th? Because that's where I got my information. And I'd question 95% of the people spending such an enormous amount of money on FF as those engaged in WCOFF, thinking they can actually walk away as winners.

No, I am not saying that. Unless that 60% you speak of are not the same rules and roster requirements I am talking about. Then I am saying that. Because we draft differently in different formats. Right?

[rattsass]

This one must be a doozy..wait for it...

[Avernus]

After skimming some of the comments, I'll add my $0.02:

 

Romo is a near-elite QB fantasty-wise, has been since he started. Miles Austin should be drafted as top 7 WR this year - a stud in every sense of the word. If you wait until he 'proves it another season', you will be behind the curve.

 

The Cowboys have one of the easiest passing schedules this year and unless their O-line completely fails (not out of the question) both Romo and Austin should produce elite numbers this year for their fantasy owners. The only risk here is the O-line. The players themselves are not risky becuase in my mind they have both proven their talent is legit. I realize Austin only proved it one season but he took over games. I've seen enough football to know that Austin is legit and he should be drafted as such.

 

 

exactly...the only problem with Austin is that drafting him doesn't feel as comforting as drafting R Moss or AJ....but I still have him one below those two...