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Where do you draw the line?


Grits and Shins
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Always Start Your Studs, a pretty straightforward concept and one that I think most of us have espoused over the years. Unfortunately defining each year's studs just isn't that cut and dry. Past performance isn't necessarily an indicator of future performance another common axiom that also comes into play when determining who is a stud.

 

So this year ... who are the studs that you start each week without question and without regard to match up? Are they the players you tabbed as 'tier 1' players when you were drafting? Are they players you drafted in the first two rounds?

 

QB

 

Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are some very obvious start every week studs. They have a proven performance record on teams that like to pass the ball with no reason to believe they won't perform this year.

 

Many, including myself, have included Aaron Rodgers in this group even though his track record is less proven.

 

How could you not put a healthy Tom Brady in this category?

 

Have players like Tony Romo, Matt Schaub and Philip Rivers elevated themselves to this status? Likely if you have one of these QBs then you will start them every week by virtue of the fact they are heads and shoulders above your backup QB.

 

Seems to me like you start considering things like match ups and weather when determining which of your QBs to draft if you ended up with QBs like Cutler, Favre, Flacco, Ryan, etc on your squad.

 

RB

 

AP, CJ and MJD are obvious start every week studs. Frank Gore and Ray Rice also seem to fit the definition. But when you start getting to RBs like DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner, Ryan Grant and Rashard Mendenhall ... are these also every week start your studs? At what point do you consider matchups? For instance Michael Turner has one of the worst match ups this week when he goes up against the vaulted PIT defense in their house. Do you consider benching a player like Michael Turner for a player who is clearly not a "stud" based on match up.

 

WR

In most of my leagues I start at least 3 WRs which means the list of every week starters is deeper. AJ, Moss, Wayne, White, Miles, Megatron, Fitz, Marshall, Jennings, Colston, DeSean Jackson and Steve Smith (NYG) get a start every week. Is your list that deep would you play match ups with any of those receivers? I expect that most teams have only 1 of those players, at most 2 (if you took 1 in each of the two rounds) meaning that you are probably starting them every week.

 

Carolina is said to have a tough pass defense ... would you bench a player like Steve Smith based on this match up if you could insert somebody with a favorable match up?

 

Factors like weather and match up would seem come into play when you are looking at WRs like Mike Sims-Walker versus Mike Wallace.

 

TE

I suspect in leagues that require the TE position that you only managed to draft 1 of the projected top 10 TEs and as such will start that TE every week regardless of match up.

 

Would you ever consider benching a TE like Witten for one with a better matchup?

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I tend to start the players I drafted in:

 

round 1 15.7865437 times per year

round 2 15.985432 times per year

round 3 13.5678345678923456789 times per year

round 4 12.432567893456 times per year

 

the above is for even numbered years for odd numbered years it is as follows:

 

round 1 14.7865437 times per year

round 2 15.985456 times per year

round 3 14.56678923456789 times per year

round 4 11.432567344567893456 times per year

 

I hope that helps - now every weeks there is a 3.23456734% chance that my above numbers are off by 45.61234%

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Generally speaking, WR is the FF position where I tend to deviate from the ASYS mantra if I'm going to consider sitting a stud ... in part because it is usually more difficult (for me at least) to reliably predict WR performance as opposed to QB / RB numbers, but also because WRs are more liable to be impacted by poor weather. In addition, 1 opposing "shutdown" CB can take your stud WR out of a game to a degree in terms of targets from the QB - obviously, fewer targets for your stud WR means fewer chances from FF production, if you think the WRs NFL team is going to tweak their usual game plan out of respect for that opposing CB. That does not mean I'm going to consider putting whomever the current JAX WR4 may be into my lineup at the expense of (for example) Calvin Johnson because the latter has a poor match up ... but at the same time, if I have a bench WR that would be a borderline FF starter for me anyways, and that bench WR seems to have a favorable match up - I'd at least think about making the lineup change.

 

More specifically ... this week I'm, sitting Grant in 1 (PPR) league to use A. Foster instead ... probably a bit of a gamble, but I think I may need to take a chance on getting a big game from Foster in order to win my FF game in that league; so, I guess that means I'm either not considering Grant to be a stud, or I'm deviating from the ASYS standard in order to use Foster. At the moment, I don't forsee any circumstances where I'd sit my #1 QB (Schaub) in order to start my backup (A. Smith) in this same league.

 

As an aside, I don't always believe that ASYS comes into play when we get down to the FF playoffs / last couple of weeks of the NFL regular season. Consider last year - in the 1 FF super bowl game I made it to last year, I sat R. Wayne & started D. Mason, based on the Colts penchant for sitting their stars late in the season once they have clinched their division ... that decision making factor clearly won't come into play for most of the year, or for all NFL players on all NFL teams even near the end of the NFL regular season ... but it certainly comes into play at times when making that ASYS / don't ASYS decision.

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Generally speaking, WR is the FF position where I tend to deviate from the ASYS mantra if I'm going to consider sitting a stud ... in part because it is usually more difficult (for me at least) to reliably predict WR performance as opposed to QB / RB numbers, but also because WRs are more liable to be impacted by poor weather. In addition, 1 opposing "shutdown" CB can take your stud WR out of a game to a degree in terms of targets from the QB - obviously, fewer targets for your stud WR means fewer chances from FF production, if you think the WRs NFL team is going to tweak their usual game plan out of respect for that opposing CB. That does not mean I'm going to consider putting whomever the current JAX WR4 may be into my lineup at the expense of (for example) Calvin Johnson because the latter has a poor match up ... but at the same time, if I have a bench WR that would be a borderline FF starter for me anyways, and that bench WR seems to have a favorable match up - I'd at least think about making the lineup change.

 

More specifically ... this week I'm, sitting Grant in 1 (PPR) league to use A. Foster instead ... probably a bit of a gamble, but I think I may need to take a chance on getting a big game from Foster in order to win my FF game in that league; so, I guess that means I'm either not considering Grant to be a stud, or I'm deviating from the ASYS standard in order to use Foster. At the moment, I don't forsee any circumstances where I'd sit my #1 QB (Schaub) in order to start my backup (A. Smith) in this same league.

 

As an aside, I don't always believe that ASYS comes into play when we get down to the FF playoffs / last couple of weeks of the NFL regular season. Consider last year - in the 1 FF super bowl game I made it to last year, I sat R. Wayne & started D. Mason, based on the Colts penchant for sitting their stars late in the season once they have clinched their division ... that decision making factor clearly won't come into play for most of the year, or for all NFL players on all NFL teams even near the end of the NFL regular season ... but it certainly comes into play at times when making that ASYS / don't ASYS decision.

 

LOL ... I have Schaub in two leagues - he will be my every week starter as my backup QBs are Anderson in one league, Freeman and Big Ben in the other league. In the league that I have Grant he will be an every week starter for me, no so much because he's a stud but more because of my options (Jacobs or McGahee).

 

I think I'm hearing you say that you are more likely to play match ups with your WR2 on down ... surely if you have AJ you don't ever bench him?

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I think I'm hearing you say that you are more likely to play match ups with your WR2 on down ... surely if you have AJ you don't ever bench him?

 

If & when the Texans emulate the Colts - meaning if they have clinched the division & have shown a tendency to sit their starters (or have stated they will) in what may be a meaningless NFL game that has FF implications for me - I would absolutely consider benching AJ if I owned him, and the circumstances seemed favorable for me to do so - as I did with Wayne & Mason last year, mentioned above. In more "normal" circumstances however, no I don't see myself benching a healthy AJ based only on a presumed poor match up.

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I will start Turner every single week. I also don't expect to bench Addai unless Brown starts stealing a lot of snaps. Addai is near stud status being on the Colts offense as long as he doesn't lose touches, especially in PPR.

 

I'll bench Boldin this week though, in favor of TO based on the matchup. Boldin has 3 strikes against him... first game with a new team, bad matchup and Revis. I otherwise expect to start Boldin every week too.

 

In general, I almost never see any reason to bench my #1&2 RB, same for my WR's or my best TE. I've seen people talk about benching Turner this week, and I think they are nuts. Turner is a TD machine when healthy, so even if he doesn't rack up over 50 yards the chance of a score remains very good. Roddy White will never see the bench either, regardless of matchup.

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I will start Turner every single week. I also don't expect to bench Addai unless Brown starts stealing a lot of snaps. Addai is near stud status being on the Colts offense as long as he doesn't lose touches, especially in PPR.

 

I'll bench Boldin this week though, in favor of TO based on the matchup. Boldin has 3 strikes against him... first game with a new team, bad matchup and Revis. I otherwise expect to start Boldin every week too.

 

In general, I almost never see any reason to bench my #1&2 RB, same for my WR's or my best TE. I've seen people talk about benching Turner this week, and I think they are nuts. Turner is a TD machine when healthy, so even if he doesn't rack up over 50 yards the chance of a score remains very good. Roddy White will never see the bench either, regardless of matchup.

 

Pittsburgh hasn't finished worse than third in rush defense since 2003, and returns its front seven intact, in addition to a healthy Troy Polamalu ... it was the number 1 defense against the run last year. I think I read somewhere that the gave up something like only 3 TDs on the ground at home last year.

 

This doesn't concern you at all?

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If & when the Texans emulate the Colts - meaning if they have clinched the division & have shown a tendency to sit their starters (or have stated they will) in what may be a meaningless NFL game that has FF implications for me - I would absolutely consider benching AJ if I owned him, and the circumstances seemed favorable for me to do so - as I did with Wayne & Mason last year, mentioned above. In more "normal" circumstances however, no I don't see myself benching a healthy AJ based only on a presumed poor match up.

 

Yes ... I understand that when we get to playoff time and NFL teams might be resting players that this changes the dynamics. The question was more geared towards regular season when you would anticipate all players are hitting the field. Injuries will also change the dynamic.

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Right now, as I see it, these guys are studs:

 

Rodgers

Brees

Manning

Brady

Chris Johnson

Peterson

Ray Rice

Jones-Drew

A. Johnson

R. Moss

R. White

Reggie Wayne

M. Austin

Gates

V. Davis

Clark

Witten

 

With these guys borderline (lets wait a few games):

 

Gore

S. Jackson

Turner

D. Williams

Calvin Johnson

Fitzgerald

Schaub

Romo <gulp>

Rivers

Celek

 

I'm probably missing a couple. (Edit: like D. Jackson - on the border) I don't think that you can consider rookies and players without a track record (for the most part - see Austin vs. Jamaal Charles for example)

 

Of course, this list will change as the season goes on.

Edited by Furd
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Pittsburgh hasn't finished worse than third in rush defense since 2003, and returns its front seven intact, in addition to a healthy Troy Polamalu ... it was the number 1 defense against the run last year. I think I read somewhere that the gave up something like only 3 TDs on the ground at home last year.

 

This doesn't concern you at all?

 

Last year PIT averaged 90 rush yards per game against, and gave up 7 TD's on the ground. They also surrendered 324 points. That's 20 points a game. Formidable for sure, but not infallable. In addition, I would not be surprised to see Dixon turn the ball over and give ATL good field position at least once, maybe twice. Turner is pretty much going to get at least 80% of whatever yardage the Falcons can get on the ground. Can ATL rush for 100 yards today? I'll project Turner's chance at a TD at 75%.

 

It isn't a good matchup, but it isn't enough to make me bench my #1 RB, it's not even close.

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Last year PIT averaged 90 rush yards per game against, and gave up 7 TD's on the ground. They also surrendered 324 points. That's 20 points a game. Formidable for sure, but not infallable. In addition, I would not be surprised to see Dixon turn the ball over and give ATL good field position at least once, maybe twice. Turner is pretty much going to get at least 80% of whatever yardage the Falcons can get on the ground. Can ATL rush for 100 yards today? I'll project Turner's chance at a TD at 75%.

 

It isn't a good matchup, but it isn't enough to make me bench my #1 RB, it's not even close.

 

2009 home games for PIT

 

WK 1 vs TEN, Chris Johnson had 57 rushing yards, 11 receiving yards, no TDs

WK 4 vs SDC, LT had 15 rushing yards, -1 yards receiving, no TDs

WK 6 vs CLE, Jamal Lewis and Jerome Harrison combined for 47 yards rushing, 15 yards receiving and no TDs

WK 7 vs MIN, AP had 69 yards rushing, 60 yards receiving and 1 rushing TD

WK 10 vs CIN, Scott/Weaver combined for 41 rushing yards and 45 receiving yards, no TDs

WK 13 vs OAK, Fargas/McFadden combined for 88 yards rushing, 13 yards receiving, no TDs

WK 15 vs GBP, Ryan Grant had 37 yards rushing, 1 rushing TD

WK 16 vs BAL, Rice had 141 yards rushing, no TDs

 

So ... they gave up 2 rushing TDs at home all year (unless a QB or WR got one that I didn't catch) and for the most part shut down opposing rush defenses. Now you might argue that some of those offenses were pretty bad ... but either way PIT at home looks pretty formidable

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Right now, as I see it, these guys are studs:

 

Rodgers

Brees

Manning

Brady

Chris Johnson

Peterson

Ray Rice

Jones-Drew

A. Johnson

R. Moss

R. White

Reggie Wayne

M. Austin

Gates

V. Davis

Clark

Witten

 

With these guys borderline (lets wait a few games):

 

Gore

S. Jackson

Turner

D. Williams

Calvin Johnson

Fitzgerald

Schaub

Romo <gulp>

Rivers

Celek

 

I'm probably missing a couple. (Edit: like D. Jackson - on the border) I don't think that you can consider rookies and players without a track record (for the most part - see Austin vs. Jamaal Charles for example)

 

Of course, this list will change as the season goes on.

 

 

Yup, but I would put Finley over Celek on the watch list.

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2009 home games for PIT

 

WK 1 vs TEN, Chris Johnson had 57 rushing yards, 11 receiving yards, no TDs

WK 4 vs SDC, LT had 15 rushing yards, -1 yards receiving, no TDs

WK 6 vs CLE, Jamal Lewis and Jerome Harrison combined for 47 yards rushing, 15 yards receiving and no TDs

WK 7 vs MIN, AP had 69 yards rushing, 60 yards receiving and 1 rushing TD

WK 10 vs CIN, Scott/Weaver combined for 41 rushing yards and 45 receiving yards, no TDs

WK 13 vs OAK, Fargas/McFadden combined for 88 yards rushing, 13 yards receiving, no TDs

WK 15 vs GBP, Ryan Grant had 37 yards rushing, 1 rushing TD

WK 16 vs BAL, Rice had 141 yards rushing, no TDs

 

So ... they gave up 2 rushing TDs at home all year (unless a QB or WR got one that I didn't catch) and for the most part shut down opposing rush defenses. Now you might argue that some of those offenses were pretty bad ... but either way PIT at home looks pretty formidable

 

SD, CLE, CIN, OAK all either had no rushing attack or no stud RB or both.

 

I agreed the PIT run D is formidable, no question. The Falcons have a good rushing offense, and a stud RB, strength against strength. I think Turner rushes for 65 yards with a TD on at least 20 carries. If he gets a YPC of 3.9, which is what the PIT D surrendered last year, that would be 78 yards. Home field, I adjust down to 65 yards.

 

Benching Turner this week is still a serious violation of ASYS. :wacko:

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SD, CLE, CIN, OAK all either had no rushing attack or no stud RB or both.

 

I agreed the PIT run D is formidable, no question. The Falcons have a good rushing offense, and a stud RB, strength against strength. I think Turner rushes for 65 yards with a TD on at least 20 carries. If he gets a YPC of 3.9, which is what the PIT D surrendered last year, that would be 78 yards. Home field, I adjust down to 65 yards.

 

Benching Turner this week is still a serious violation of ASYS. :wacko:

 

Really it will all come down to whether or not he gets a TD

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Really it will all come down to whether or not he gets a TD

 

Well, in the one and only league I own Turner, I also have Addai, M Bush and Hillis. (Yes, I am loaded elsewhere like Gates and V Davis in a doulbe yardage TE format with 2 TE flex) so for me it's a no brainer. This draft was before the Bush thumb injury. Still, I doubt I would have an RB3 that I would like more than Turner despite the matchup.

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