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How to Evaluate Trades


jco207
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A couple of days ago I asked for advice on a trade (Gaffney or M. Floyd for Beanie) that I thought was equal because projected points on my league's site were about equal. But the consensus was that it definitely wasn't. (Thanks for your advice guys!) I obviously stink at evaluating trades. What kind of things do you all consider when evaluating a trade?

 

Also, I'm sure there is an art to how you craft your message when you propose a trade. Any tips?

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In redraft leagues I believe in offering multiple good players for 1 great player and leaving myself little depth. I try and keep my teams lean. Ill offer you 2-3 great players that can instantly be quality starters on your team for 1 stud and your scrubs

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A couple of days ago I asked for advice on a trade (Gaffney or M. Floyd for Beanie) that I thought was equal because projected points on my league's site were about equal. But the consensus was that it definitely wasn't. (Thanks for your advice guys!) I obviously stink at evaluating trades. What kind of things do you all consider when evaluating a trade?

 

Also, I'm sure there is an art to how you craft your message when you propose a trade. Any tips?

 

 

First off the reason Gaffney for Beanie isn't actually fair even though projected points is equal is because

1. Beanie Wells was injured

2. He isn't the starter yet-he will have more value in a few weeks

 

Second, in evaulating a trade or even just proposing a trade I think of these few factors:

1. Look at your team before/after the trade. Which team would you rather have?

2. Look at the waiver wire. If you are trading 3 RBs for 1 RB then you might need another RB so see whats available

3. Look at their upside, potential, etc. In-season stats and pre-season projections

 

Third, the art to how you craft your message is you want to make a good first offer first of all or else that may show disrespect to your trade partner and start you off on the wrong foot. Also show him what he would be losing if he doesn't take the trade (EG) "If you don't do this trade, you'd be losing 5-15 pts a week at the WR2 spot on your team!" Explain the reasoning using "because" so you give a full reason why YOU want to do this and why HE should do this. Also have the trade partner imagine owning the player's he's reiciving, use that before/after factor in his starting lineup. EG "Right now you have Chris Johnson, Chester Taylor, and Devin Hester at RB/RB/FLEX. Which leaves a HUGE hole in your lineup with Taylor and Hester. If you take this trade, you can start Matt Forte, Beanie Wells, and Brandon Jackson instead at those positions. You will get the depth you need and blah blah blah"

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Thanks for all the responses so far. Just curious, how do you evaluate fair value when you're trading multiple players for one stud? I was obviously wrong about the Gaffney for Beanie trade, but would M. Floyd and Gaffney for Beanie be fair for both teams?

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Thanks for all the responses so far. Just curious, how do you evaluate fair value when you're trading multiple players for one stud? I was obviously wrong about the Gaffney for Beanie trade, but would M. Floyd and Gaffney for Beanie be fair for both teams?

 

Trades aren't fair or unfair based on just the players in the trade. You (both traders) need to look at rosters before and after the trade. Will your overall team or starting lineup be better or worse after the trade.

 

In your above example, if Team B has Beanie but also has two (or 3) RB starters, but has a glaring hole at WR, the trade might make sense to him, whether it was one or two WRs. If you have 5 or 6 potential starters at WR but need a RB for later bye week protextion, or just assume Wells will come on strong later, the trade may make sense for you to include both WRs.

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A couple of days ago I asked for advice on a trade (Gaffney or M. Floyd for Beanie) that I thought was equal because projected points on my league's site were about equal. But the consensus was that it definitely wasn't. (Thanks for your advice guys!) I obviously stink at evaluating trades. What kind of things do you all consider when evaluating a trade?

 

Also, I'm sure there is an art to how you craft your message when you propose a trade. Any tips?

 

This is a great question for a new guy to ask. You have to be careful to not get sucked in to the "these two guys will score about the same number of points as that guy" mentality. The main thing to consider is not how many points each player will probably score for you, but how many points he will score for you compared to other guys at that position? Otherwise, in a QB-heavy league, a scrub QB would seem equivalent to a top- or second-tier receiver, and he's not. Kickers score a lot of points, but they rarely score a bunch more than the other kickers do, so their trade value is limited despite the points they put up. Wrapping my head around that helped when I first started.

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