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***Official Week 3 Wagering Thread***


kroyrunner89
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Back to it this week, public got hammered in Week 2 but Week 3 is a new week! Here are the lines:

 

Titans +3 @ Giants 42.5

Bills +13 @ Patriots 42

Browns +10.5 @ Ravens 37

Steelers -2.5 @ Bucs 33 (This is the lowest total I've ever seen)

Bengals -3 @ Panthers 38.5

Falcons +4 @ Saints 49.5

49ers -1.5 @ Chiefs 36

Lions +10.5 @ Vikings 41.5

Cowboys +3 @ Texans 47.5

Redskins -3.5 @ Rams 38

Eagles -3 @ Jaguars 44.5

Colts -6 @ Broncos 48

Chargers -5.5 @ Seahawks 43.5

Raiders +4 @ Cardinals 40

Jets +2 @ Dolphins 34.5

Packers -3 @ Bears 45.5

 

Good luck this week everyone!

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5-2 on the season so far.

 

 

Bengals -3 @ Panthers 38.5

 

This has all the looks of a trap, but I honestly think CIN is a much better team than they are showing and CAR is terrible and starting a rook also. If I liked TB getting 3.5 in CAR last week, I sure think CIN can win by more than a FG there.

 

 

Falcons +4 @ Saints 49.5

 

The Saints are 4 points better than ATL right now if the two teams played anywhere. Giving only 4 at home with that team? I'll take it. My only concern here is a possible late back door cover by ATL.

 

 

Lions +10.5 @ Vikings 41.5

 

I don't know if DET can win this game. I do know that MIN is playing terribly, and I also know that DET has shown some moxy already in division games on the road. I just can't see the Vikes giving anyone 10.5 pts right now, so I'll hook up with the Lions here.

 

 

Cowboys +3 @ Texans 47.5

 

DAL has the earmarks of a team ready to implode. I also think that HOU is a very well built team on the rise. Two teams going in opposite directions and only a FG spread between them in Houston's lair? This looks like a bet-the-house game.

 

 

Redskins -3.5 @ Rams 38

 

Shanahan and his group of vets are playing pretty well despite losing last week to a very good HOU team. Even with the trip into STL, they aren't going to be fazed playing on the road. Starting against a still very raw Bradford and with STL having a very leaky D, I like the 'Skins a lot.

 

 

Colts -6 @ Broncos 48

 

This IS the bet-the-house game. IND has owned DEN for years now, and is playing against a lesser version than they've swamped in recent years. Then you add that DEN has generated absolutely no pass rush this season and that the statuesque Orton has Freeney and Mathis coming at him, and we are looking at a game where IND covers by halftime and laughs their way home. Champ looks onto to Wayne and Manning abuses DEN by throwing a ton to everyone else.

 

 

Chargers -5.5 @ Seahawks 43.5

 

How are the Chargers giving 5 and a half on the road to anyone? Norv's teams have a habit of starting very slowly, and SEA isn't going to turn the ball over at home like they did in DEN. I think we'll see the same SD team that showed up in KC in a matchup of two teams that probably will finish within a game of .500 either way by the time the season is done.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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Lions +10.5 @ Vikings 41.5

 

I don't know if DET can win this game. I do know that MIN is playing terribly, and I also know that DET has shown some moxy already in division games on the road. I just can't see the Vikes giving anyone 10.5 pts right now, so I'll hook up with the Lions here.

:wacko: Take this one the to bank...how could the Vikes be favored at all right now!

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5-2 on the season so far.

 

 

Bengals -3 @ Panthers 38.5

 

This has all the looks of a trap, but I honestly think CIN is a much better team than they are showing and CAR is terrible and starting a rook also. If I liked TB getting 3.5 in CAR last week, I sure think CIN can win by more than a FG there.

 

 

Falcons +4 @ Saints 49.5

 

The Saints are 4 points better than ATL right now if the two teams played anywhere. Giving only 4 at home with that team? I'll take it.

 

 

Lions +10.5 @ Vikings 41.5

 

I don't know if DET can win this game. I do know that MIN is playing terribly, and I also know that DET has shown some moxy already in division games on the road. I just can't see the Vikes giving anyone 10.5 pts right now, so I'll hook up with the Lions here.

 

 

Cowboys +3 @ Texans 47.5

 

DAL has the earmarks of a team ready to implode. I also think that HOU is a very well built team on the rise. Two teams going in opposite directions and only a FG spread between them in Houston's lair? This looks like a bet-the-house game.

 

 

Redskins -3.5 @ Rams 38

 

Shanahan and his group of vets are playing pretty well despite losing last week to a very good HOU team. Even with the trip into STL, they aren't going to be phased playing on the road. Starting against a still very raw Bradford and with STL having a very leaky D, I like the 'Skins a lot.

 

 

Colts -6 @ Broncos 48

 

This IS the bet-the-house game. IND has owned DEN for years now, and is playing against a lesser version than they've swamped in recent years. Then you add that DEN has generated absolutely no pass rush this season and that the statuesque Orton has Freeney and Mathis coming at him, and we are looking at a game where IND covers by halftime and laughs their way home. Champ looks onto to Wayne and Manning abuses DEN by throwing a ton to everyone else.

 

 

Chargers -5.5 @ Seahawks 43.5

 

How are the Chargers giving 5 and a half on the road to anyone? Norv's teams have a habit of starting very slowly, and SEA isn't going to turn the ball over at home like they did in DEN. I think we'll see the same SD team that showed up in KC in a matchup of two teams that probably will finish within a game of .500 either way by the time the season is done.

I like CIN, DET, and SEA as well.

 

Carolina looks brutal, and although Clausen MAY be the better long-term plan, that's not going to be evident in his first NFL start. Cincy should win by double digits.

 

I remember talking LAST year about how Minnesota always plays down to Detroit's level. This year, they should be getting the 3 points for playing at home, and MAYBE another point or two. Anything more than that is crazy.

 

Seattle has one of the bigger home-field advantages in the NFL, simply because of the crowd noise. If there's anything the first two weeks should tell us about this team, it's that they're going to be far tougher to beat at home, than they will be on the road. They made a pretty decent SF team look terrible in Week 1, and I think they'll cause San Diego to struggle as well. Don't know if they've got enough to win outright, but I see this game possibly coming down to a late FG, by one side or the other. The key, for the Seahawks, will be not getting behind big early... Against SF, they were fortunate to only be down 6-0 after allowing the Niners into the red zone three times. Against San Diego, that 6 points could easily turn into 17 or 21. I think the SEA crowd will be even more amped up than opening day, and helps Seattle keep it close, right up to the end.

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If I had to make one bet on this week.....

 

I would take the OVER in the Green Bay/Chicago game.

 

 

I wouldn't touch that one - both Ds are underrated at the moment and both Briggs and Matthews are en fuego right now (especially Matthews :wacko: ) - if you want an over I'd take the Indy Denver game which looks to have clear, dry weather.

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I'm feeling SF -1.5 this week. I just don't think that KC is a 2-0 team and I know that SF is better than 0-2 , a couple less turnovers and they would have taken out the SB champs last week.

 

Nice analysis BB . I agree with you on the Lions + 10.5, It's almost as if they are handicapping that line purely based on last season and totally disregarding what we've seen so far this year and I like the Bengals -3 as well, the Panthers look like a mess so far this season.

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After researching a few games the Titans/Giants game is standing out the most based on stats and history...

 

The Titans are 4-0 vs the Giants going back to 1997.

 

Jeff Fisher pwns the NFC....The Titans are 8-0 the last 2 years...11-1 in the past 3 and 14-2 dating back to 2006. While the Giants are 5-3 in the last 2 and 9-7 dating back to 2006.

 

Take it or leave it...Titans +3 looks pretty good right now. :wacko:

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I gotta quit putting that one losing team in all my parlays :wacko:

I had PITT on the money line last week, but lost that winner when I parlayed them with the NYGs.

 

Im with you, I had eagles -6 in a bunch of my parlays last week....and that back door cover by detroit really hurt me big time

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After researching a few games the Titans/Giants game is standing out the most based on stats and history...

 

The Titans are 4-0 vs the Giants going back to 1997.

 

Jeff Fisher pwns the NFC....The Titans are 8-0 the last 2 years...11-1 in the past 3 and 14-2 dating back to 2006. While the Giants are 5-3 in the last 2 and 9-7 dating back to 2006.

 

Take it or leave it...Titans +3 looks pretty good right now. :wacko:

 

Does any of that matter in Sunday's game? What about the idea that the current Giants team is better than the current Titans team?

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Lions +10.5 @ Vikings 41.5

 

I don't know if DET can win this game. I do know that MIN is playing terribly, and I also know that DET has shown some moxy already in division games on the road. I just can't see the Vikes giving anyone 10.5 pts right now, so I'll hook up with the Lions here.

 

Take this one the to bank...how could the Vikes be favored at all right now!

 

Looks like the line is moving in the other direction. Up to 11 1/2.

Edited by Jackass
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Does any of that matter in Sunday's game? What about the idea that the current Giants team is better than the current Titans team?

It means Jeff Fisher is good at prepping his teams for non conference games and that should be taking into consideration. Hence the reason I said take it or leave it....

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Take the Jets and the over, and thank me later. :lol:

Vegas loves guys like you :wacko: (rolling eyes at cheesy comment) There is more money being placed on the Jets than on Miami. Everyone wants to bet the Jets and the line may move toward a pick. Vegas wants the money and the experts know that Miami in a home opener versus the Jets' first road game where Brandon Marshall has a chance at a Revis-less Jet D backed up by an underrated Miami defense playing against a Jet offense that will rely on Sanchez to win this one (Greene is not running well and LT is having to pick up the slack). I think Vegas likes their odds with Miami. I will have to go with Vegas on this one 20-17 Miami (-2 35.5) and, so I guess I agree with the over, too.

 

I will say that defense usually trumps offense and the Jets always have a chance to win. But if this game moves toward a pick then Miami at their home opener it is in a close one. :tup::tup:

Edited by Scooby's Hubby
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Lions +10.5 @ Vikings 41.5

 

I don't know if DET can win this game. I do know that MIN is playing terribly, and I also know that DET has shown some moxy already in division games on the road. I just can't see the Vikes giving anyone 10.5 pts right now, so I'll hook up with the Lions here.

 

Take this one the to bank...how could the Vikes be favored at all right now!

 

Looks like the line is moving in the other direction. Up to 11 1/2.

Detroit must score to cover their end of the bargain. It is 12 where I am and I am trying to convince myself to not be suprised to see MINN go up 14-0 in the 1st quarter b/c their offensive line woke up. All but 2 of the 10 sacks Detroit have made all came from their D Line (see JUMBO's article at home page) so the battle is there in the trenches where MINN should be favored. I am looking at 1st half action in favor of the Vikes at -6.5 or -7 :wacko:

Edited by Scooby's Hubby
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1-1-1 last week_____3-2-1 on the year.

–––––––––––––––––

This week:

–––––––––––––––––

NEP +13

 

CIN -3

 

DET +10.5

 

I'm surprised no one else has brought up the Pats game. Everyone jumped on GB +13 at home against the Bills last week & they covered in the first quarter.

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* Baltimore Ravens -10.5 (-109 @ Pinnacle)

 

The Ravens' offense has struggled so far this season, but returning home against a very mediocre Browns team is just what they need. In the first two games the Ravens have played two of the better defense in the league, the Jets and the Bengals. The Browns' defense is nowhere near this level, and this week on the road at Baltimore will really be their first challenge of the season. I think we're going to see a big boost in the Ravens' offensive numbers this week since they're returning home rather than playing on the road. Last season, the Ravens scored about 10 points per game more at home, and the defense allowed about 9 points per game less. I feel like this is a setup for the Ravens to finally break out and put 3+ touchdowns on the board, scoring anywhere from 24-34 points. As for their defense, it's been stifling so far as their banged up secondary has yet to really be exposed. They've been able to generate a good amount of pressure on the QB, and their run defense remains the strongest part of the unit. The Browns are clearly a run first team with their lack of threats in the passing game on offense, and their inability to run against the Ravens on Sunday will force them to start throwing more than they like. Whether it's Delhomme or Wallace at QB for them, this is not a threatening passing game and they will struggle scoring points all afternoon. The ceiling for this Browns offense on Sunday is probably about 13 points, with that leaving only 24 required of the Ravens I feel like we should have an easy win here. I expect a 27-10 victory for the Ravens.

 

* Steelers/Bucs UNDER 33.5 (-110 @ Pinnacle)

 

While this is one of the lower totals I've seen in a while, it's set this low with good reason. The Steelers enter their third game of the season once again without Ben Roethlisberger, and with both Leftwich and Dixon hurt they turn to their final QB Charlie Batch. The Pittsburgh passing game has been abysmal this season no matter who's at QB, and Batch certainly brings nothing new to the table that will help this offense score points. Facing a Bucs defense that was one of the worst in the league at stopping the run in 2009, the Steelers will likely look to attack on the ground for the majority of the game and ask as little of Batch as possible. While this strategy will certainly keep the clock moving, I don't expect it to work out great for them. The Bucs defense has shown big signs of improvement this season, as they held a powerful Carolina rushing attack under 4 yards per carry last week. With the Pittsburgh offensive line still in a state of flux, I think the Steelers will struggle keeping drives alive and wind up being forced to punt more times than not. As for their defense - it looks like it's back in a big way. They've shut down two very powerful offenses so far this season in the Titans and Falcons, and the Bucs look to be a step in the easier direction for them. Tampa Bay has also shown improvement on the offensive side of the ball, with Freeman handling himself much better thus far this season. However, the big plays they've been relying on from WR Mike Williams and TE Kellen Winslow won't be as readily available against this Pittsburgh defense (6th in yards per pass attempt allowed), and their rushing game which has been 9th worst in the NFL so far will be smothered by Pittsburgh's 4th ranked rushing defense. I don't see how either team is going to be able to generate points in this contest, and we should have ourselves a very low scoring game, with the winner taking it 13-10.

 

* Jaguars/Eagles OVER 44.5 (-113 @ Pinnacle)

 

The big storyline in this game is the Eagles' decision to make Michael Vick their starter for the rest of the season. While it's certainly a controversial decision, I consider it to be the right one. Vick brings so much more to the table than Kolb does, especially his mobility as the Eagles' offensive line is very weak this year. Vick's scampering ability allows the Eagles to keep drives alive even when their receivers can't get open, and he's shown very good decision making thus-far as he hasn't been turning the ball over. The Eagles face a Jacksonville pass defense this week that looks to be one of the worst in the league yet again. They've been getting minimal pressure on opposing QBs, and are allowing a whopping 9.1 yards per pass attempt. We should see Vick perform well once again this week, as when he's not finding the big plays down the field he's creating them with his legs. For the Jaguars, while last week's offensive showing was disappointing there were some positives to be taken from it. Jacksonville had absolutely no problem moving the ball on the San Diego defense, their biggest issue was that they turned the ball over six times. I expect the Jaguars to do a much better job of taking care of the ball in this game, and with the Eagles keying in on stopping Maurice Jones-Drew I think that Garrard can lead the offense well enough to give the Jaguars a shot at stealing this game. I think these teams put on an offensive show and the over comes through, with whoever has the ball last possibly winning the game.

 

* Chiefs/49ers UNDER 37 (-101 @ Pinnacle)

 

Let's start with the Chiefs' offense here. KC has been very fortunate to get off to a 2-0 start so far this season because their passing game has been borderline non-existent. Cassel has thrown for an abysmal 4.5 yards per pass attempt, and as a result of his shotty passing the Chiefs have converted only 23.1% of 3rd downs, third worst in the NFL. The strength of this KC team has been running the ball, unfortunately for the Chiefs they're matched up against the run stopping 49ers. The biggest threat in the Chiefs' offense is clearly Jamaal Charles, yet for some reason Thomas Jones continues to get more carries than him and all indications are that this pattern will continue. The Chiefs will likely have trouble establishing the run in this contest, and if forced to turn to Cassel and the passing game things will get no better. When examining the 49ers offense, it's a bit tougher to figure out what to make of them. While they struggled on the road in Week 1 against the Seahawks, they came home Monday night and put forth a much better offensive effort against the Saints, moving the ball with ease. Ultimately, a few dumb mistakes and unlucky breaks kept them from winning that game, and cost them points on the scoreboard. In Seattle, there was talk that in that game the 49ers had trouble getting their plays in on time and struggled with the noise. At Arrowhead this week, that's again a similar area of concern as it's a very tough stadium to play in. I think we're going to see something similar out of the 49ers this week as they struggle to get the run going and then find themselves in more 3rd and long situations like they were in Week 1. Given that the 49ers are fifth worst in the league with a 25% conversion ratio on 3rd downs, I think we'll also see quite a few drives out of them that fizzle out without putting points on the scoreboard. I think both offenses will struggle in this one, with the winner coming out with a 17-13 win.

 

 

I've probably eliminated enough people so far with my shotty survivor picks, but for anyone still alive and still interested I think the Ravens are a great play and so are the Patriots. That's all for this week, good luck to everyone!

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I am hanging my hat on PITT (now -3) and CINCY (-3) almost sounds too good to be true. I also parlayed them with Miami (-2.5)and NYG (-3) FOR 10:1 ODDS (4 Teamer)

 

I also took Balt 1st half (-6.5) and MINN 1st Half (-7) ... there are more but these are the ones I went heavy on.

Edited by Scooby's Hubby
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OK, I got back in. Here are my plays for this week:

 

1. Hou/Dal over 47

2. 4 team parlay(NYG -3, CLE/BAL under 37, CIN/CAR under 38, DAL/HOU over 47)

3. 3 team money line parlay (CIN -170, NO -200, WAS -200)

 

I'll probably do something for the late games, haven't decided on anything yet.

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