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Upon Further Review


ajh2
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Here are the players I think need to have their ratings explained. Thank you.

 

4.) Murphy, OAK S3; 80,1

Murphy is the 17th most targeted wr/te two weeks in - same as the Steve(s) Smith. The difference is that he has more receptions that either (10) a TD and 119 yards with a WR-friendly QB starting this weekend. And now Oakland is playing AZ, who is has allowed the 5th most points to opposing WRs thus far.

 

hope that helped.

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Here are the players I think need to have their ratings explained. Thank you.

 

1.) C. Benson, CIN S3; 80,1

2.) H. Nicks, NYG S2; 70,0

3.) Tolbert, SD X; 0,0

4.) Murphy, OAK S3; 80,1

 

70=S2 bro. Dont pay so much attention to predicted touchdowns and pay more attention to yards, as TD's are nearly impossible to predict.

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To All,

 

I wanted the projections ot be explained. I cannot submit an email using the Huddle. Here is the problem with the above players - the disparity between the projections.

 

S1 - Must start; Going to score definitely or a monster yardage day (for example - 100,1 or 150,0)

S2 - Good Start; Possibly scoring, good yardage - average day (for example - 40, 1 or 90,0)

S3 - Start but not ideal; some yardage only (for example - 30,0 or 40,0)

 

Notes:

Nicks has scored in both games, no score this week?

For Benson and Murphy big difference in value.

For Tolbert - Mathews looks out this week and usually if the Friday updates do not have an update for this there will not be one. That is everyone will be stuck with - X and 0,0; wondering what to do.

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To All,

 

I wanted the projections ot be explained. I cannot submit an email using the Huddle. Here is the problem with the above players - the disparity between the projections.

 

S1 - Must start; Going to score definitely or a monster yardage day (for example - 100,1 or 150,0)

S2 - Good Start; Possibly scoring, good yardage - average day (for example - 40, 1 or 90,0)

S3 - Start but not ideal; some yardage only (for example - 30,0 or 40,0)

 

Notes:

Nicks has scored in both games, no score this week?

For Benson and Murphy big difference in value.

For Tolbert - Mathews looks out this week and usually if the Friday updates do not have an update for this there will not be one. That is everyone will be stuck with - X and 0,0; wondering what to do.

So you think that Nicks will score a TD every week?

How can you think that Tolbert won't be updated on Friday?

And I am not sure what you mean by "big difference in value" with regards to Benson and Murphy....i can see where the 80, 1 each is projected for being very realistic. If you mean that the S3 doesn't match the projection I would be willing to bet that the S3 ranking is incorrect and would be updated.

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To All,

 

I wanted the projections ot be explained. I cannot submit an email using the Huddle. Here is the problem with the above players - the disparity between the projections.

 

S1 - Must start; Going to score definitely or a monster yardage day (for example - 100,1 or 150,0)

S2 - Good Start; Possibly scoring, good yardage - average day (for example - 40, 1 or 90,0)

S3 - Start but not ideal; some yardage only (for example - 30,0 or 40,0)

 

Notes:

Nicks has scored in both games, no score this week?

For Benson and Murphy big difference in value.

For Tolbert - Mathews looks out this week and usually if the Friday updates do not have an update for this there will not be one. That is everyone will be stuck with - X and 0,0; wondering what to do.

 

You do realize that one person does the projections and another person does the start/bench list don't you? As individuals they have their own research and come to their own conclusion on how players are going to perform.

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keggerz Posted Today, 4:03 AM

QUOTE (ajh2 @ 9/23/10 11:56pm)

To All,

 

I wanted the projections ot be explained. I cannot submit an email using the Huddle. Here is the problem with the above players - the disparity between the projections.

 

S1 - Must start; Going to score definitely or a monster yardage day (for example - 100,1 or 150,0)

S2 - Good Start; Possibly scoring, good yardage - average day (for example - 40, 1 or 90,0)

S3 - Start but not ideal; some yardage only (for example - 30,0 or 40,0)

 

Notes:

Nicks has scored in both games, no score this week?

For Benson and Murphy big difference in value.

For Tolbert - Mathews looks out this week and usually if the Friday updates do not have an update for this there will not be one. That is everyone will be stuck with - X and 0,0; wondering what to do.

So you think that Nicks will score a TD every week?

How can you think that Tolbert won't be updated on Friday?

And I am not sure what you mean by "big difference in value" with regards to Benson and Murphy....i can see where the 80, 1 each is projected for being very realistic. If you mean that the S3 doesn't match the projection I would be willing to bet that the S3 ranking is incorrect and would be updated.

 

Sir,

 

In the past I have had situations where one or the other updated their respective projection for a player but both did not for a player like Tolbert.

Nicks appears to be the hot hand for NYG right (Eli's Favorite target for now). I do not expect Nicks to score every week for the season just this week based on the match-up and have an average yard day of something like 60,1 - 12pts instead of 70,0 - 7 pts.

For Benson and Murphy, there is a big difference between 60,0 (6 pts) and 80,1 (14 pts) - difference 8 pts. I have lossed games by less than a point - fractional point league - therefore every yard counts. Last week - Loss by .82 points. I started Naanee (80,0 - S2) over Moss (30,0 - S3) at WR. The point I am making is I prefer not to lose if I can help it and I really value your opinions on your projections to set me straight/ prevent me from starting a zero production day (which I have done when I have not read your information) which is downside risk aka S3 territory while an 80,1 is an excellent day.

Edited by ajh2
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Grins, I do and that is why I asking these questions so I have their reasoning behind their positions. So I can make an informed decision on potential busts and smashes for the week. I have these players on several of my teams and I am trying to decide on what to do with them.

Edited by ajh2
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Grins, I do and that is why I asking these questions. I have these players on several of my teams and I am trying to decide on what to do with them.

 

So there is the answer to your question why the disparity between projections and start/bench. Two DIFFERENT individuals did THEIR OWN INDEPENDENT analysis and arrived at THEIR OWN conclusion to how players would perform. I speculate that you will find that other sites have even different projections. Heck ... you might even come to a different conclusion on your own. That is the nature of not knowing the future, everybody has their own opinion on how it will play out.

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Grins, I do and that is why I asking these questions so I have their reasoning behind their positions. So I can make an informed decision on potential busts and smashes for the week. I have these players on several of my teams and I am trying to decide on what to do with them.

 

This is an educated guessing game we play. Just use the projections and start/sit and then make your own projections. Play long enough and you'll realize there is no crystal ball.

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Dude, if you think Nicks is the hot hand and he is going to score a TD this week, start him!! It isn't physics. About half the projections out there will have him scoring a TD, about half will not. When I look at the two projections for him, I come to the conclusion that it looks like he has a better chance to have a good game this week than lots of other receivers do. What else do you want? Are you trying to decide whether or not to start him over Murphy? Do what the rest of us do....agonize about it until Sunday morning, contemplate flipping a coin, and then ultimately make the wrong decision and watch the other one go off for 120 and 2.

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I just updated mine and added Tolbert in which the write up said would happen if Mathews did not practice.

 

The reason we ask people to send us in an email is because we cannot hope to answer every question people have if they are the only one. It is why we have writeups to explain our reasoning in addition to the Projections or SBL codes. To answer them here would certainly encourage more of that. This week we were emailed 24 different names and only three had more than one person asking. One of those was Tolbert who has been added in during my projections. I am not counting others who literally send in their roster and ask to explain all the names. Both John and I do write ups on every player we project/cetegorize and we want the UFR to be a vehicle for when we differ greatly on players and several people still want more after reading our explanations in the Predictions and Projections and the Start Bench List.

 

As noted above, touchdowns are not something you can place nearly as high confidence in as you can yardage. TD's are a "single play event" and much can happen on just one play. Outside of a handful of top RB and WR, TDs are pretty hard to get consistent accuracy.

 

And of course two other dynamics are at play. John does the SBL considering the relative advantage (or not) he sees in using each player as a fantasy starter. I am building a game with projections and when I believe the QB is going to throw for 250 yards, I try to distribute at least 220 yards of it and whatever passing scores. I assign them out based on a host variables of course but bottom line it is only about which player is most likely to do whatever. That could be a very high confidence or just 1% more than any of the other WRs.

 

And also in the end, he and I see some games differently of course. Whatever we think the outcome is has an obvious impact on what we expect to happen. We're amazingly close on most things far as I see.

 

As for the others,

 

We are pretty much even on Benson but I like a rushing TD.

Nicks S2 and 70 yards is pretty much the same, isn't it?

Tolbert I already updated

Murphy - I think OAK wins and Murphy is the most likely WR to do much. He thnks ARI will win. I think he sees the risk in Gradkowski whereas I have to generate numbers that cannot indicate risk outside of the writeups.

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