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Do you have trouble picking starters?


keggerz
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Sure there is the "Always start your studs" mantra and it does have merit for sure...but what happens when and if one or more of your sleepers hit and you end up with more studs than starting spots? Would be a nice place to be wouldn't it. Or what happens when your studs are pretty much duds and your depth all seems pretty even? Well I formulated what I call A.I.M. (Assess, Investigate, Matchup) to help make lineup decisions. Here is how it works:

 

Don’t get caught in the same old rut that many do and just analyze your lineup trying to figure out who to start. Instead manage the entire process with what I call A.I.M.

 

Assess: The first thing you need to do is assess the risk/reward each of your starters presents. Do you have a couple of top RBs facing top 5 defenses? Is your top WR facing a shut down corner or an injury replacement nickel back thrust into the starting lineup?

 

Investigate: Many fantasy GM’s don’t “investigate” their opponents roster and probable starting lineup. “if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles;…”, Sun Tzu. Just like in war, you must know your opponent and just like you assess your team you should assess your opponent’s team. Broken down into basic laymen terms, you need to see if you need to “play it safe” or “swing for the fences”.

 

Matchup: This is where you are looking at all the variables from both lineups and you play the player that helps you to matchup best with your opponent based on your risk/reward assessment.

 

not rocket science but I stumbled back upon this in one of my old idp articles and thought it might help some people out.

Edited by keggerz
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I'm kind of applying this for week 4. I have AJ in 3 leagues, questionable, and facing Nnamdi. ASYS just doesn't make sense this week.

 

I'll probably dress him in 1-2 leagues and play it safe in another.

 

wrt knowing your opponents, I used to spend religious amounts of time going thru rosters, taunting my opponents into dressing someone they shouldn't, etc. Wish I had more time this year to do this kind of thing.

 

Hey it looks like the ultimate 'swing for the fences' guy Lee Evans has been officially replaced by Mike Wallace.

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For whatever reason I was assuming there was a dartboard somehow connected with this... :wacko:

If he were a motivational speaker using PowerPoint, you can bet your ass there would be one.

 

Dartboard outside ring Assess

Middle ring - Investigate

Inside ring - Matchup

 

Then the dart labelled "VICTORY" flies in and sticks in the bulls-eye.

 

Brings a tear to my corporate eye just thinking about it.

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Sure there is the "Always start your studs" mantra and it does have merit for sure...but what happens when and if one or more of your sleepers hit and you end up with more studs than starting spots? Would be a nice place to be wouldn't it. Or what happens when your studs are pretty much duds and your depth all seems pretty even? Well I formulated what I call A.I.M. (Assess, Investigate, Matchup) to help make lineup decisions. Here is how it works:

 

Don’t get caught in the same old rut that many do and just analyze your lineup trying to figure out who to start. Instead manage the entire process with what I call A.I.M.

 

Assess: The first thing you need to do is assess the risk/reward each of your starters presents. Do you have a couple of top RBs facing top 5 defenses? Is your top WR facing a shut down corner or an injury replacement nickel back thrust into the starting lineup?

 

Investigate: Many fantasy GM’s don’t “investigate” their opponents roster and probable starting lineup. “if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles;…”, Sun Tzu. Just like in war, you must know your opponent and just like you assess your team you should assess your opponent’s team. Broken down into basic laymen terms, you need to see if you need to “play it safe” or “swing for the fences”.

 

Matchup: This is where you are looking at all the variables from both lineups and you play the player that helps you to matchup best with your opponent based on your risk/reward assessment.

 

not rocket science but I stumbled back upon this in one of my old idp articles and thought it might help some people out.

A longer, more wordy way of saying "start the players you think will score the most points", aint it? :wacko:

 

And I disagree about looking at your opponents lineup and trying to guage whether you should be "playing it safe" or "swinging for the fences". Its hard enough to predict what your own players will do with their matchups let alone handicapping your opponent's team and deducing whether you need a "big week" or "just enough". I'd say any time you spend looking at your opponent's team is a waste of time as 1) you cant do anything about it, and 2) it has ZERO bearing on how many points your team will score.

 

Play to win by starting the players YOU think will score the most points. Period. :tup:

Edited by Delicious_bass
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A longer, more wordy way of saying "start the players you think will score the most points", aint it? :wacko:

 

And I disagree about looking at your opponents lineup and trying to guage whether you should be "playing it safe" or "swinging for the fences". Its hard enough to predict what your own players will do with their matchups let alone handicapping your opponent's team and deducing whether you need a "big week" or "just enough". I'd say any time you spend looking at your opponent's team is a waste of time as 1) you cant do anything about it, and 2) it has ZERO bearing on how many points your team will score.

Play to win by starting the players YOU think will score the most points. Period. :tup:

but it can show how much risk you need to take to pull out a win....

the "safe" vs "swing" isn't necessarily for the entire lineup but more for when you have two players you are stuck on trying to decide between.

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but it can show how much risk you need to take to pull out a win....

the "safe" vs "swing" isn't necessarily for the entire lineup but more for when you have two players you are stuck on trying to decide between.

Disagree.

 

You have no idea how many points your opponent's team will score. Even if he's got a stacked lineup of all S1s who project to have a hugh week, doesnt mean they will. Nor is it guaranteed that the guy with the 0-3 team that hasnt topped 70pts yet wont score 100+ this weekend.

 

The only thing you have "control" over is your own lineup and that is where your focus should be. Start the lineup you feel will get you the highest total as that is (obviously) how you win.

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Disagree.

 

You have no idea how many points your opponent's team will score. Even if he's got a stacked lineup of all S1s who project to have a hugh week, doesnt mean they will. Nor is it guaranteed that the guy with the 0-3 team that hasnt topped 70pts yet wont score 100+ this weekend.

 

The only thing you have "control" over is your own lineup and that is where your focus should be. Start the lineup you feel will get you the highest total as that is (obviously) how you win.

we will just agree to disagree then

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You were born for govt work; I'm serious. If you're anywhere near D.C., consider it - you could be making 6 figures doing this kinda stuff.

I have no idea what the heck you are intimating, none whatsoever :wacko:

fwiw, I am an analytical person by nature so looking at things that way comes very easy to me...actually there aren't many things that I can't/don't look at in an analytical way...i guess not everyone can be analytical or critical thinkers :tup:

 

and most if not all people that have ever worked with me would describe me as a natural born leader too

Edited by keggerz
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A longer, more wordy way of saying "start the players you think will score the most points", aint it? :wacko:

 

And I disagree about looking at your opponents lineup and trying to guage whether you should be "playing it safe" or "swinging for the fences". Its hard enough to predict what your own players will do with their matchups let alone handicapping your opponent's team and deducing whether you need a "big week" or "just enough". I'd say any time you spend looking at your opponent's team is a waste of time as 1) you cant do anything about it, and 2) it has ZERO bearing on how many points your team will score.

 

Play to win by starting the players YOU think will score the most points. Period. :tup:

 

i agree. Granted I understand taking a risk like starting someone u just picked up on the WW who has potential to be huge due to an injury. However the goal to FF is pick the players that will give u the most points.

 

If we went by predictions I would have lost by a ton last week (I think I had +44 as my spread lol) and I ended up winning by over 40 points thanks to Collie.... Even then I started second guessing myself cause I start Ochocinco over Lyold (who had a steller week) I could have gotten another 20 points....

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Wow and I thought I needed to get out more.

 

OTOH you have a promising future working for the government young Jedi. You know Powerpoint?

 

 

You were born for govt work; I'm serious. If you're anywhere near D.C., consider it - you could be making 6 figures doing this kinda stuff.

 

 

And people wonder why traffic on the main board is down

Edited by whomper
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A longer, more wordy way of saying "start the players you think will score the most points", aint it? :wacko:

 

And I disagree about looking at your opponents lineup and trying to guage whether you should be "playing it safe" or "swinging for the fences". Its hard enough to predict what your own players will do with their matchups let alone handicapping your opponent's team and deducing whether you need a "big week" or "just enough". I'd say any time you spend looking at your opponent's team is a waste of time as 1) you cant do anything about it, and 2) it has ZERO bearing on how many points your team will score.

 

Play to win by starting the players YOU think will score the most points. Period. :tup:

 

Here's one thing I used to do (no time this year sadly); in weeks 4-10 look for the opponent that plays 'team defense roulette' every week on the wire. 2 weeks before your matchup grab the D off the wire you know he was going to want. You may not need to dress that D, and while you are dressing your best players to score the most, you have also lowered your opponent's ceiling for the week. You can also use the WW to block potential RB, WR, etc moves guys might make trying to fill in bye week holes. It takes a lot of research to pull stuff like this off though and this year I'm just going week to week.

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My weekends usually follow the M.I.S.S. method:

 

Make a logical, informed decision (Saturday afternoon)

Imbibe heavily (Saturday night)

Second guess your gut instinct (Sunday morning)

Sob uncontrollably in the corner (Sunday afternoon into Monday)

 

Rinse and repeat.

:tup:

 

Thanks, that brightened my day. :wacko:

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You have chosen to ignore all posts from: BeeR.

 

· View this post

· Squeeze me a little harder BeeR

 

uglytuna Members 1162 Remove

BeeR Members 6753 Remove

klo91

 

Not sure why i didn't add you sooner, but welcome to the list.

 

Keggerz. I too look at my opponent and make decisions based off that. It has helped me. It's just teh way I am programmed as well. Thanks for sharing.

Edited by Hat Trick
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I have no idea what the heck you are intimating, none whatsoever :wacko:

fwiw, I am an analytical person by nature so looking at things that way comes very easy to me...actually there aren't many things that I can't/don't look at in an analytical way...i guess not everyone can be analytical or critical thinkers :tup:

 

and most if not all people that have ever worked with me would describe me as a natural born leader too

Look - you took a very simple thing and tried to make it sound far more complicated and structured (ie some "methodology") than it really is. Worse, you gave it a name. Even worse, the name was purposely made into some cutesy acronym. These are all hallmarks of gov't work, hence the cracks. I was mostly messing w/you though, so pardon - but you did tee it up pretty high. :tup:

 

lol @ Hat Trick's little hissy. I keep forgetting how many thin-skinned girls are on FF boards. I'll be up all night crying that he don't wub me.

Edited by BeeR
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You were born for govt work; I'm serious. If you're anywhere near D.C., consider it - you could be making 6 figures doing this kinda stuff.

 

I honestly don't of think this as an insult.

 

Breaking down complex ideas into simple strategies is indeed a valuable and needed skill. And yes, there are folks out there that get paid beau coup bucks for it.

 

Not just the government.

 

Go look up "Six Sigma Black Belt".

 

So perhaps BeeR was trying to crack wise, but there is truth in it that he doesn't realize.

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Here's one thing I used to do (no time this year sadly); in weeks 4-10 look for the opponent that plays 'team defense roulette' every week on the wire. 2 weeks before your matchup grab the D off the wire you know he was going to want. You may not need to dress that D, and while you are dressing your best players to score the most, you have also lowered your opponent's ceiling for the week. You can also use the WW to block potential RB, WR, etc moves guys might make trying to fill in bye week holes. It takes a lot of research to pull stuff like this off though and this year I'm just going week to week.

Mr. Wolfie, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

 

Keggerz. I too look at my opponent and make decisions based off that. It has helped me. It's just teh way I am programmed as well. Thanks for sharing.

Can you (or Keggers) give me a specific example of when looking at your opponent's lineup and changing your own (based on theirs) has helped you? :wacko:

 

I honestly don't of think this as an insult.

 

Breaking down complex ideas into simple strategies is indeed a valuable and needed skill. And yes, there are folks out there that get paid beau coup bucks for it.

Not just the government.

 

Go look up "Six Sigma Black Belt".

 

So perhaps BeeR was trying to crack wise, but there is truth in it that he doesn't realize.

I agree. That's not what is happening in this case, though. This is a case of pimping over-analysis in a futile attempt to push an unproven angle toward success.

 

And I believe it is you that is missing BeeR's point but not realizing it.

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