***Official Week 4 Wagering Thread***

[kroyrunner89]

Week 4 Lines:

Broncos +6.5 @ Titans 42.5

Ravens +1 @ Steelers 34.5

Bengals -3 @ Browns 37

Lions +14.5 @ Packers 46

Panthers +13.5 @ Saints 44.5

49ers +6.5 @ Falcons 42.5

Seahawks -1 @ Rams 40

Jets -5 @ Bills 36.5

Colts -9 @ Jaguars 46

Texans -3 @ Raiders 43

Cardinals +9 @ Chargers 45

Redskins +6 @ Eagles 43

Bears +4 @ Giants 44.5

Patriots -1 @ Dolphins 46.5

[Scooby's Hubby]

tossing around these ideas ...

 

under GB 46

New Orleans -13.5

Chicago +4

 

please advise ....

[osu1322]

The only one I'd call risky is GB under 46....

 

Personally I'd bet on

 

Bears +4

Colts/ Jags over 46

Steelers -1

 

in the colts jags match up Indy will put up a lot of points but indy's run D hasn't been all that great so I'm looking for MJD to have a breakout game.

 

I think the steelers have the ravens # this week with Patamalou being healthy

[nimal]

Like Miami +2, Bears +4, & Raiders + 3

 

I will probably lay low this week in terms of actually putting money on any of these games...while I do like a few

[SheikYerbuti]

The Bears getting 4 is the trap of the century. I'll probably jump all over it and feel dumb on Monday.

[Bronco Billy]

8-6 for the year after a 3-4 week last week.

 

Now that we're into week 4, going to have to dive into some numbers.

[rattsass]

This week looks like a gamblers wasteland. I really don't see much I like at all, but since I am a degenerate I will probably go Colts -7. I know they have given the Colts fits in the past, and on the surface it doesn't look like a great bet, but Jacksonville has just looked so awful it is hard to imagine they will put up much of a struggle this time around. Colts -7.

[THE SIX KINGS]

Ari/SD under 45.5

[Bronco Billy]

Week 4 Lines:

 

Broncos +6.5 @ Titans 42.5

 

Classic struggle of a dedicated very good passing team vs a dedicated very good running team. DEN is #1 in the league in passing and throws on average 42 times a game vs rushing 27 times. TEN on the opposite hand is the #8 rushing team and runs 34 times a game vs 23 passes. The TEN pass D at #5 is a match for the DEN O, and prevents giving up big plays just as much as DEN relies on big plays. DEN's QB rating is mid 90s while TEN's QB rating allowed is just above 70. The DEN run D is a good match for TEN also at #10 in the NFL. They don't give up a lot of long runs and have held opponents well below 4.0 ypc.

 

So where is this game decided? With each team's weakness. With TEN it is the passing O, ranked as #30 in the league - which is very misleading. The reason they are ranked #30 isn't because they don't throw effectively, it's that they don't throw as often. TEN QBs have a rating over 90, a completion percentage near 70%, and more TDs than INTs. DEN's pass D on the other hand is #30, and allows opponent QB ratings in the upper 90s, completion rates near 65%, and a lot of passing TDs. The DEN run O at #30 is just the opposite. The disaster starts with a terrible ypc of 2.5 and 0 runs of 20 yds or over, while the TEN run D is competent at 4.4 ypc but only allowing 1 rushing TD so far this season while recovering 4 fumbles.

 

Add that TEN gets over 3 sacks per game, while DEN puts no pressure on opposing QBs. So while TEN will be able to control the DEN passing O and DEN will be able to control the TEN running game, where this game breaks is that while TEN will be able to move the ball through the air - pretty well, I would suspect, DEN will not be able to move the ball on the ground. Add that TEN ought to get at least 2 more sacks than DEN and ought to force at least 1 more turnover, and with TEN at home I don't see where DEN can move the ball enough to score much.

 

This game looks like a TEN win going away, as well as a low scoring game. I'd be tempted to play the under as well although I won't advise playing a total as is normal for me.

 

*****************************************

 

Ravens +1 @ Steelers 34.5

 

Interesting game between bitter division rivals, who both like to dominate and intimidate opponents. You like old fashion enforce-your-will football? This game is for you.

 

PIT has moved to becoming a throwing team while BAL attempts to run a very balanced O. The mediocre BAL passing O is almost a mirror image of the mediocre PIT passing D, except that BAL's QB rating is very poor while PIT's D forces opposing QBs to play near the same very low rating. PIT gets a lot of sacks and you can probably expect a couple of BAL INTs. The #3 PIT run D matches up very well with the #22 BAL run O, and PIT does not allow rushing TDs while BAL doesn't score them. Look for a decided edge to PIT when the BAL O is on the field.

 

The #1 BAL pass D should also be able to throttle the #31 PIT pass O. You aren't going to see a lot of long PIT pass plays, you'll see some solid BAL pressure, and we probably won't see more than 1 PIT passing TD, if that. The game changing stat in this game is the #3 PIT rush O vs the #22 BAL run D. Yep, that's right, the #22 BAL run D. What was once the most ferocious run D in the league is now a mere shadow of itself. PIT runs for 4.7 ypc, exactly what BAL gives up. PIT won't put the ball on the ground, and BAL doesn't force turnovers. PIT gets some long gainers while BAL gives them up on the ground. The BAL run D is completely vulnerable in this game.

 

So what makes this game bettable is that while both teams want to enforce their will on the other, PIT can actually do it whil BAL can't. This Ravens team is living on the past reputation of its run D, and that run D isn't very good any longer. That and the division game is why it is only a 1 pt spread even though the game is in PIT - that means the oddsmakers have determined that the betting public thinks BAL is actually the better team. But PIT ought to be able to literally run the ball down BAL's throat, and BAL won't have an answer. BAL doesn't seem to be able to be capable of putting many points on the board in this one, while the Steelers will grind the Ravens under their wheels, as long as they don't try to get cute and throw the ball a ton.

 

Give me the Steelers in what will likely be a low scoring, slog it out game that PIT figures to win by a TD and maybe more.

 

***************************

 

Bengals -3 @ Browns 37

 

Don't like this game at all. These teams are almost dead even in every statistical aspect across the board, with the exception of a marginal edge of the CIN pass D over the CLE pass O. That explains and reasonably accounts for that -3 pt margin. You could maybe make me pick this with a gun to my head, but otherwise: No thanks.

 

**********************

 

Lions +14.5 @ Packers 46

 

Huge spread in a division game that probably deserves the number. GB actually is statistically substantially better in every aspect of the matchups, which is a decided anomaly. Even when the mediocre #22 GB rushing game that average 3.8 ypc comes on the field, they face a #32 DET run D that gives up 5.0 ypc. There isn't anywhere that DET can gain any kind of edge no matter which team is rushing or passing. Then add in Jahvid Best's injury and we have a DET team that has no reason to find a way to stay in this game. The only place DET might find some solace is that they may be able to get some pressure on Rodgers, but on the other side GB is going to be all over DET's QB to the point of getting ugly.

 

I don't like division games giving up this many pts, which is why I won't make a play on it. But if you have a hankering, GB ought to cover this number early and run it up in a laugher.

 

****************

 

Panthers +13.5 @ Saints 44.5

 

You look at this game and think the exact same situation faces NO at home as does GB at home in the previous game. A top team coming off a tough loss playing at home against a decidedly weak division rival.

 

That's where the similarity ends. CAR actually matches up pretty well against NO. The high flying #6 NO passing game is offset by a #13 CAR pass D that is actually playing pretty well. CAR will give up a couple of passing TDs, but they'll also ballhawk and may end up with an INT or 2. CAR forces opponent QBs into mediocrity, with completion percentages in the mid 50s and QB ratings in the mid 70s. That's pretty solid for a team playing so poorly. CAR will struggle when passing the ball, but NO has had a tendancy to make opposing QBs look better than they actually are. They give up a lot of completions, don't force a lot f turnovers, and don't apply a lot of pressure. That won't make Claussen a stud this weekend, but it may make him average.

 

Where the fascinating part of this matchup lies is in the running games. CAR has a very significant edge both when it runs the ball and when NO tries to run. NO is well below average in both running and stopping the run - in fact, they are bottom 3 in the league in both. Meanwhile, CAR has shown that it still can run even though it really hasn't had the chance, and at the same time its run D is giving up a stingy 3.1 ypc.

 

What this all means is that CAR can actually control the tempo of this game. They should be able to string together long tedious drives and not force Claussen into throwing the ball a ton, while they keep the ball out of Brees' hands. They also ought to be able to find a way to win the turnoevr battle.

 

That means that as weak as a team as CAR is, they actually have a puncher's chance of causing NO some serious problems. Don't be surprised if you look at the score sometime near halftime and ask yourself, "How in the hell is that possible?" It probably isn't nearly enough for CAR to win the game, but chances are it will be enough to cover that massive spread. Give me the dog Panthers and the pts, please.

 

**************

 

49ers +6.5 @ Falcons 42.5

 

There is every reason in the world to like ATL in this game. ATL's pass D is very bland, but the SF passing O matching it is terrible. In the meanwhile, ATL's pass O is clicking well with high passer ratings and very good TD/INT ratio and completion percentages, while the SF pass D makes every opposing QB look like a superstar, with opposing QBs rating at almost 110 on average and giving up a lot of scores.

 

The SF run D vs the ATL rushing O is a bit misleading, so be careful not to get fooled. While ATL has the #2 run O and SF has the #15 run D, ATL also runs a lot more than it passes, and SF opponents are choosing to run as much as pass, probably because they are ahead a lot. But the ypc of each unit is right around the 4.0 Mendoza line, so while ATL may look dominating in this phase, they may not "run away" with it. On the other side of the rushing game, while SF is ranked #27, they also hit close to that mediocre 4.0 ypc line, while ATL gives up a whopping 5.1 ypc despite being the #12 run D. It's all about opportunity - both SF's run O and ATL's run D have had 60 rushing attempts this year - so don't be fooled. SF actually runs the ball much better than ATL stops it despite the rankings.

 

In fact, if it weren't for the turnover margins so far, I'd probably lay off this game. But while ATL doesn't give the ball up and SF doesn't take it, it's the opposite the other way around, and ATL ought to be good for a +2 turnover margin in this game. That, playing at home, and SF making all opposing QBs look like Hall of Famers so far. is why I'll lay the 6 1/2. Don't put a ton on it though. These two teams are closer than they look in a lot of aspects.

 

********************

 

Seahawks -1 @ Rams 40

 

I don't like this game. Both teams are very, very mediocre with the single exception of the Seahawks' run D, which is playing stellar. Expect to see very average QB play on both sides, maybe some more effective running from SEA than STL in that part of the game, a couple of turnovers by both teams, and maybe another SEA special team highlight reel play. If SEA has the patience and gumption just to turn this into a slapfight, they probably pull off the road win in division. If they decide to take a break on the road (something they are prone to do) and try some cutesy stuff, they could end up handing STL a win here.

 

I do not like this game at all, and would only play an under on the total, and only if someone told me they'd kick me in the nuts if I didn't make some play on the game.

 

*****************

 

Whew.

 

I'll get around to the other games in a while.

Edited September 30, 2010 by Bronco Billy

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Waiting to see what you have to say about the Colts game ?

It is the only game that I like a side this week and believe the Colts should win this game by (2) scores

 

If I play anything else it is going to be the over unders on the other games ( I see many low scoring games this week )

Edited September 30, 2010 by MustOfBeenDrunk

[Bronco Billy]

Week 4 Round 2

 

Jets -5 @ Bills 36.5

 

I am definitely no favorite of choosing road favorites in divisional games. Yet here we are, road divisional game, Jets a road dog by well over a FG, and you are saying, "Hey, BB, looks at the rankings. Bills with an edge in pass D at #18 over the Jets at #26 passing O. Almost dead even and both at terrible ranking when the Jets defend against the Bills passing. Jets with a good edge at #9 in run O over the #27 Bills run D. Bills #17 run O going to struggle against the #4 Jets' run D. Got to be careful after last week. So what's to like? It looks like a fairly close Jets win on the road."

 

Not so fast my friend! This is the case where looking into the numbers tells a different story.

 

True, the Bills' pass D ranks out much better than the Jets' pass O. But look deeper: The Bills' opposing QBs are rated at an average of 109 and are completeing nearly 68% of their passes. Coincidently the Jets QB rating so far is almost 105. In the meantime, the Bills' QBs are rated at an average of just over 70, while opposing QBs have a rating under 76. That makes for a massive advantage for the Jets when the passing games are operating - I mean, just massive, even though the per game yardage rankings don't bear that out.

 

Then you have the Jets gaining almost 5 ypc while the Bills are giving up 4.2, while the Bills are averaging 4.2 ypc on O against an incredibly superb 2.4 ypc on run D by the Jets. The Bills have also scored only 1 rushing TD while giving up 5 so far. That spells a huge edge in to the Jets when the teams are running the football.

 

The cherry on the cake? BUF has generated exactly 1 turnover - not an INT, just one single fumble recovery - so far in three games. In the meantime, the Jets have not thrown an INT while picking off 4 passes and recovering 2 fumbles. The turnovers are also swinging wildly to the Jets, and that BUF hasn't even picked off one pass yet while the Jets haven't thrown an INT bodes very well for NY.

 

So while the rankings don't show it as much, the deeper numbers show that the Jets are a much, much better team than the Bills. They can absolutely cover more than a TD on the road against this BUF team. Give me the Jets, take the points.

 

***************

 

Colts -9 @ Jaguars 46

 

Then there is the obvious that is actually obvious. This matchup shows us the #3 passing O of IND vs the #29 pass D of JAX as a glaring mismatch. And the deeper numbers bear that out. IND completes nearly 70% of its passes, whilee JAX allows 65% completions. Manning's QB rating is almost an astonishing 117, while JAX opposing QBs are compiling almost a 109 rating. The Colts can't run even against JAX, but don't need to. The Jags can't pass against IND, even though they'll have to.

 

But then there's those quirky little caveats. IND has some real trouble stopping the run at #28 and giving up 5.0 ypc. JAX is about average running the ball. That could be a sticking point.

 

The turnovers go to IND, with Manning putting up a mindboggling 9-0 TD/INT ratio, while JAX does get picked off a bit. But it's that lack of a run D that really bothers me on the road. JAX could decide to run the ball right at IND all day, and that shortens the game while keeping Manning off the field. IND should cover that number, but playing outside on grass against MJD makes me think the Jags can find a way to hang in there in the first half, and if they do they may cover that spread even while losing. I watched IND struggle on grass for a while against a team in DEN that has no one near close to what Jones-Drew is capable of.

 

I'll leave this seeming no-brainer alone. There's better places to put my money, IMO.

 

**************

 

Texans -3 @ Raiders 43

 

I'm so far off this game that I'll need a bus to get back and finish this. Both teams run the ball very, very well. HOU has an edge there because their run D is very good while the OAK run D is well, swiss-cheese like. HOU should be able to pound the ball on the ground. HOU can throw up an aerial circus, but AJ is hurting and OAK has a very strong pass D, so those that matchup breaks even.

 

It's the HOU pass D that really worries me. Opposing QBs are throwing at a rating almost exactly what Peyton Manning's rating is so far this season. They can literally turn chicken #### into chicken salad when it comes to opposing QBs.

 

There's no way I'll play this game. It could swing wildly either, and don't be surprised if one team wins the first half and then gets blown out by the other team in the second half. Stay away. Far away.

 

***************

 

Cardinals +9 @ Chargers 45

 

The only place AZ holds a statistical advantage in this game is when they run the ball. While the rankings are close, with AZ's run O being ranked #12 against SD's #9 run D, the Cards run at about 5.0 ypc while SD is a middle of the road near 4.0 ypc. The Cards' run D is actually much more credible than their #31 ranking, though SD should have the capability to run as it sees fit.

 

Unfortunately for AZ, that's the only place where they even remotely match up with SD. They get crushed in all other statistical analyses, and the Chargers are especially hard on opposing QBs. We should see some turnovers in this one, and that does dampen the enthusiasm, but SD ought to win that battle by at least 1. I see SD having great field position all day and being able to rack up some good scores against a team that frankly does not have enough on D to stop them from either running or passing. This could be one of those games that SD cruises to a 10 pt lead at halftime and then slowly pulls away as AZ is forced to throw the ball in the second half - which it most defintely is very bad at, and which SD is very good against.

 

******************

 

Redskins +6 @ Eagles 43

 

Way off of this one too. The teams match up almost dead even when one's run O is pitted against the other's run D. It's the passing that tilts the game, with PHI's pass O being much better than the 'Skins pass D, and with a lights-out re-emergent Michael Vick leading the charge. The PHI pass D is also strong, making opposing QBs play poorly and picking off almost 2 passes a game.

 

That 6 pt spread might be a little light, but I don't like PHI enough in this one to jump on board, and I worry about McNabb knowing enough about the PHI DB weaknesses that he can exploit them.

 

**********

 

Bears +4 @ Giants 44.5

 

The odd spread of the week. CHI's undefeated lucky bunch headed into an underperforming and up-and-down NYG team.

 

CHI's O, both running and passing, is matched pretty well by the Giants' D. The Giants do have a tendancy to allow opposing QBs to play pretty well, but I worry about the Giant pass rush against that Bears' O-line. Statistically its pretty even, and I think we'll see some of the gotcha' type plays by both teams when the Bears have the football. The Bears probably won't be able to run very well, but we have seen Mad Mikey use the short passing game as a good substitute for running the ball.

 

The fun really begins when the Giants have the ball. CHI has the #1 run D, and the Giants have pretty much conceded that they are a passing team anyhow. The game won't turn there as the Bears won't see enough running by the Giants to use that to put them in bad down-and-distance situations. It's when the Giants throw the ball that all hell could break loose. But don't make a mistake of underestimating the Bears pass D. They allow pretty average to slightly above opposing QB ratings, while Eli sits in about the same range. And the CHI pass D has twice as many INTs as passing TDs allowed - and Eli will throw picks. That's where the Bears can really hang in this game.

 

I see this as being a FG game either way, but with the Giants at home on Sunday night, I'll concede that the -4 is right about on the money. I think the real sucker bet here making the same mistake people made on Monday night with the Bears/Packers and thinking both teams will move up & down the field. I think we may be looking at the Ds having more of an impact and seeing both punters getting some good work in.

 

I'll lay off of this one, simply because while gambling is fun, flipping a coin and hoping for the best isn't gambling - it's guessing.

 

****************

 

Patriots -1 @ Dolphins 46.5

 

Wowser. What a nice way to close out the week. AFC East match up of big boy teams.

 

The Dolphin pass D is ranked #10 and is playing very, very well. They are fully capable of bringing down the #9 Pats' pass O to their level. They don't give up a lot of big plays and they apply very solid pressure. The Dolphin run D is an achilles heel at #19 giving up 4.5 ypc. And that's a point that NE ought to exploit, being the #10 run O and clicking for 4.6 ypc.

 

On the other hand, we have a solid but not pretty #18 MIA pass O up against a ranked slightly worse #25 NE pass D. But here's when things get sticky. While the MIA pass O has been conservative but playing very solid, the NE pass D has been allowing opposing QBs to play very well, and they are giving up a lot of passing TDs while not getting a lot of pressure. The Pats' run D, while being solid in only giving up 1 rushing TD, is also allowing teams to gain at 4.4 ypc, and the MIA run O at #16 ought to be able to use that to sustain drives and keep Henne out of 3rd & long situations.

 

I like MIA's chances of containing Brady better than I like NE being able to stop both facets of the MIA O, and I don't think that NE is going to settle for runnig the ball a lot when up to now they've thrown almost 25% more than they've run. I also don't see MIA losing back-to-back divisional games at home with this team. I like MIA to win straight up, and so the -1 doesn't mean a thing to me. NE is starting to fall out of their playoff window, while MIA is an up & coming team getting pts at home on MNF.

 

Give me the Phins & that pt!

Edited October 1, 2010 by Bronco Billy

[Rovers]

BB good stuff.

 

I really like Mia this week. To lose consecutive home games against NY and NE would pretty much crush any chance at a division title for the Phins. However, I think that #10 PD rating of MIA is a bit misleading. In the first two weeks of the season, both low scoring affairs, they faced an awful Bills team, and then a struggling Viking team with a depleted WR corp, but they gave up a lot of yardage. Jason Allen can make the big play, but he's easy to burn too. Moss could have one of those HUGH games. Favre threw for 3 INT's something Brady isn't going to do. That MIA cover 2 is vulnerable to being attacked by TE's, and NE has a couple of very good ones.

 

For both teams, having played BUF skews the numbers. Both passing D's are worse than the numbers indicate. On the other hand, the MIA pass O is capable of putting up big numbers IF they take the handcuffs off of Henne. The Jets pass D is far better than NE, and Henne had a decent week. NE's D backfield is NOT good. They are also having trouble generating pressure on the QB. If MIA let's Henne play, Marshall, Bess and Hartline with a decent TE (Fasano), and if the MIA OC gets his head out of his keester...

 

I think it all boils down to how conservative the MIA O play calling is. I'm banking on them using the wildcat as a decoy and opening it up. If they do, I like Miami big. MIA and the over.

 

 

While I thought the Jets-Bills would be a stay away this week... I think the Jets will methodically destroy BUF with the running game, and Greene has his break out game. Also remember that the Jets passing O numbers are throttled by that "no-pass beyong 5 yards" conservative game plan against the Ravens in week 1, something that I doubt they return to, even against the Bills on the road. Buffalo is without 2 straters on D, although Poz returns, they lose their other 3-4 IBL this week. For the Jets, Calvin Pace returns at OLB and the Jets just signed Trevor Pryce, who will play this week in Ryan's defense. Buffalo will have no time to throw the ball unless it's on first down. The Bills rush D did not look good against NE last week, and the Jets running game is far better.

 

Unless Spiller or Evans have a big play, I don't see the Bills crossing the goal line in this game at all.

 

As far as I am concerned, both of these games hinge on the same thing. How conservative will the offensive game plans be for MIA and NY, especially MIA. NE will score 24 or more. MIA is capable of breaking 30 with a decent game plan IMO.

 

I'll take the Jets and Dolphins.

[Scooby's Hubby]

Dolphins? How dare you! And after I took the Dolphins (last week) over the Jets against your advise?

 

I am concerned that the Dolphins cannot score more than 20 points, honestly. But I probably like your call b/c NE -1 looks like a Vegas set-up for all those gung-ho Patriot fans who still think their offense is the best in the league and Brady will throw 50 TDs again.

 

AND, I do like your Jets call this time. If Rex Ryan can keep his team focused on the Bills and hungry to win then those guys can win on the road anywhere.

Edited October 2, 2010 by Scooby's Hubby

[SheikYerbuti]

Reading about how dinged up the Giants D-Line is was the last straw. Took the Bears and 3.5.

 

Also bet Indy and laid 7. They should dismantle Jax.

[kroyrunner89]

* Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-114 @ Pinnacle)

* Steelers/Ravens UNDER 34 (-103 @ Pinnacle)

 

Before the season started the last thing I would have expected would've been for the Steelers to be opening the year 4-0 without Roethlisberger. However, it looks like there's a very high chance of that becoming a reality after this weekend. The Ravens enter this contest with some questions on offense, first and foremost the status of Ray Rice. While he's expected to play, how effective will he be with his injured knee? Baltimore is only running the ball for 3.14 yards per carry right now, 4th worst in the league, and with their star RB at less than 100% and against the stout Pittsburgh defense I can't see them mustering much production on the ground. As far as their passing game goes, it's been less than impressive so far this season, with their best numbers this season coming last week against a Cleveland defense that's nowhere near as good as the Steelers'. In their first two games, matched up with the Jets and Bengals, Flacco struggled handling the pressure these two defensive units put on him and he made mistakes as a result. With a Pittsburgh offense that's just as good, if not better than both of these defenses, I expect to see Flacco struggle again as the Ravens' offense fails to produce many points.

 

 

On Pittsburgh's side of the ball, their defense has been the big story so far this season. However, their offense has quietly done just enough to win games, even with their 4th string QB Charlie Batch running the offense. Rashard Mendenhall has been very effective running the ball for the Steelers, as Pittsburgh is 6th in the NFL with 4.69 yards per rush attempt. While Baltimore has the reputation of an elite run defense, their performance hasn't indicated it so far this year. Baltimore's defense is allowing a surprising 4.73 yards per carry, 7th worst in the league. This indicates to me that Mendenhall will still be able to produce on the ground this week for the Steelers, a very important aspect in this game as the Steelers then won't be forced to ask as much of their QB. Furthermore, while Baltimore's pass defense has actually held up alright so far, there are still issues in that secondary. We may see Mike Wallace get free for a big play much like last week against Tampa Bay, but overall I do think that Batch will struggle a bit against this defense and the big plays will be limited. This will stay a low scoring game, with both defenses bearing down and playing good football. However, I just see Pittsburgh with a better chance to generate offense and force Flacco into mistakes with their elite defense. Steelers should win this one and cruise to their 4-0 start.

 

* Cleveland Browns +3 (-121 @ Pinnacle)

 

It's very strange to me to be picking the Browns rather than against them for once, however I love their chances in this situation. The Bengals are currently one of the most overrated teams in football in my opinion. Their offense is nothing special at all, and Carson Palmer's current level of play is making it look like he's lucky to be a starter. The Bengals currently have the 8th worst passing game and 6th worst running game in the NFL, and the Browns' defense may not be great, but it's definitely on the rise from where it was last year. While Palmer has only thrown three interceptions so far this year, he really should have thrown about 10 now as defenders keep dropping easy interceptions. Palmer will continue making these bad decisions, and sooner or later his luck is going to run out. I think this is that week, and he turns the ball over at least two times against this improved Cleveland defense. On Cleveland's side of the ball, while it's uncertain who will be starting at QB for them this week I don't think it really makes much of a difference as both Delhomme and Wallace play at a very similar level. I think the real area that the Browns can excel at offense though this week is running the ball. Peyton Hillis has been running the ball great so far this year, as he's running for 5.6 yards per carry. The Browns finally got him more involved in the offense last week, giving him 22 carries for 144 yards. Matched up this week against the Bengals, I think we could see another game in the vicinity of 150 yards for Hillis, as the Bengals are allowing 4.5 yards per carry on defense, 10th worst in the league. The Browns will be able to move the ball on the Bengals, and given that Cinci has a habit of playing down to the level of their opponents I think there's a great chance the Browns win this game outright.

 

 

I'm still mulling over a Monday night play, I'll post it up tomorrow if I decide on it. Good luck this week everyone!

[bostonsoxandy]

3 Lines I would roll with:

 

New England (-1) @ Miami

New England beats Miami 99% of the time...no reason to think this time will be any different and the Patriots are looking pretty good so far and are undervalued after a closer-than-it-seemed loss to the Jets

 

Jets (-5) @ Buffalo

Basically this is a how much do the Jets win by matchup. The Bills have no shot. They are 0-3 about to be 0-4 and have lost by 5, 28, and 8 so far to the Dolphins, Packers, and Pats respectively. Expect the Jets to win by double digits

 

Texans (-3) @ Oakland

Too easy here....the Texans beat the Colts with an attitude and are undervalued because of that Cowboys loss. Whoopy-doo...they aren't losing to Oakland and its not going to be close. Foster, Schaub, Andre and Walter will carry them to an easy big win

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Throwing out the lines that I believe have the most value and have played either straght up , in parleys or teased

 

Broncos +6.5

Ravens + 2.5

Bengals -3

Saints - 13.5

Falcons - 7

Colts -7

Texans -3

Bears +4

[Rovers]

3 Lines I would roll with:

 

New England (-1) @ Miami

New England beats Miami 99% of the time...no reason to think this time will be any different and the Patriots are looking pretty good so far and are undervalued after a closer-than-it-seemed loss to the Jets

 

Jets (-5) @ Buffalo

Basically this is a how much do the Jets win by matchup. The Bills have no shot. They are 0-3 about to be 0-4 and have lost by 5, 28, and 8 so far to the Dolphins, Packers, and Pats respectively. Expect the Jets to win by double digits

 

Texans (-3) @ Oakland

Too easy here....the Texans beat the Colts with an attitude and are undervalued because of that Cowboys loss. Whoopy-doo...they aren't losing to Oakland and its not going to be close. Foster, Schaub, Andre and Walter will carry them to an easy big win

 

Not really. MIA leads the all time W-L 49-37. The two teams have split the series 5 out of the last 6 years, the odd ball being the Pats 16-0 regular season. Mia has a 33-11 home recored all time against the Pats. Mia has a better defense, NE gets the edge on offense. The Pats can definitely be beaten on the road.

[Scooby's Hubby]

teasing miami and the under peace and love

[Scooby's Hubby]

tossing around these ideas ...

 

under GB 46

New Orleans -13.5

Chicago +4

 

please advise ....

 

well, i got burned on the GB, CHI and NO, won HOU, SD, WASH, BALT, NYJ so miami and the under are gonna send me one way or the other.

Edited October 4, 2010 by Scooby's Hubby

[SheikYerbuti]

Reading about how dinged up the Giants D-Line is was the last straw. Took the Bears and 3.5.

 

Also bet Indy and laid 7. They should dismantle Jax.

 

FML.

[CowboysDiehard]

FML.

 

 

I saw your picks today, and I feel your pain. I made one small deposit last weekend and already crashed and burned through it. Decided I'm pretty much done with trying to figure out the NFL.

 

I can barely pick winners straight up at this point, never mind point spreads.