The 7/12 Theory

[bostonsoxandy]

I've been using this theory all the time during all my drafts every year for the past few years because it has proven to be effective. The idea is based off of the common fact that The Top-10 Running Backs have the biggest upturn from year-to-year.

 

In the data below, i did every 2 years, you only see two or three running backs stay in the top-12 each year, and usually only 1 per year proves they deserve that spot. But when looking further into the overturn, you will see that of the top-12 RB's projected that year, SEVEN of those are busts....heres some stats to break this down...

 

So how should you use this data? I think the best way to use it is during drafts in the first couple of rounds. Instead of coming in thinking I NEED to take a running back first round, you keep your options open. Like for this year, if the Top-4 RB's are off it may be worth to reach for Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers instead...or Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, or a different stud WR like Wayne who you KNOW will be there...

 

Concluding, the odds are against you when you take an RB projected in the top-12. Chances are the running back will be a disappointment for your team. Just thought these were some cool trending stats that show the shift of power from RB to WR and QB, especially in PPR leagues now with the RBBC especially.

 

 

Previous Years:

2005 Consensus Top 12:

LaDanian Tomlinson-3rd

Shaun Alexander-1st

Priest Holmes-huge bust (450 yds, 7 tot td) 32nd

Willis McGahee 13th

Dominack Davis-huge bust (950 yds, 2 tot tds) 17th

Edgerrin James-5th

Clinton Portis-6th

Julius Jones-borderline bust (950 yds, 5 tds) 21st

Jamaal Lewis-borderline bust (900 yds, 3 tds) 25th

Deuce McAllister-huge bust (350 yds, 3 tds) 54th

Correy Dillon-16th

Ahman Green-huge bust (255 yds, 0 tds) 70th

Overall: 4 huge busts, 2 borderline busts=6 busts/12 rb's

 

2006 Consensus Top 12:

LaDanian Tomlinson-1st

Larry Johnson-2nd

Shaun Alexander-huge bust (890 yds, 7 td) 28th

Clinton Portis-huge bust (520 yds, 7 td) 36

Tiki Barber- 7

Steven Jackson-3rd

Rudi Johnson-9th

Cadillac Williams-huge bust (230 yds, 4 td) 39th

Edgerrin James-borderline bust (1150 yds, 6 td) 20th

Lamont Jordan-huge bust (400 yds, 2 td) 55th

Ronnie Brown-borderline bust (1000 yds, 5 td) 25th

Brian Westbrook-[6th/i]

Overall: 4 huge busts, 2 borderline busts = 6 busts/12 running back's

 

2007 Consensus Top 12:

LaDanian Tomlinson-1st

Larry Johnson-huge bust (500 rush yds, 5 tds)40th

Steven Jackson-borderline bust (1000 rush yds, only 5 tds) (drafted too early)14th

Frank Gore-9th

Willie Parker-borderline bust (1300 rush yds, only 2 tds!) (drafted too early)16th

Brian Westbrook-2nd

Joseph Addai-5th

Rudi Johnson-huge bust (497 yds, 3 tds)47th

Shaun Alexander-huge bust (700 yds, 4tds)35th

Reggie Bush -huge bust (580 yds, 4 tds)24th

Travis Henry-huge bust (691 yds, 4 tds)[39th/i]

Willis McGahee-8th

Overall: 5 HUGE BUSTS, 2 BORDERLINE BUSTS =7 BUST/12 RB'S

***funny thing I saw while looking up rankings: a tidbit on Adrian Peterson @ RB30 position: "The upside is obvious, but he won't be rushed into a prime role and Peterson won't explode often enough to be a quality fantasy starter in his rookie year." yeah....about that...***

 

2008 Consensus Top 12:

LaDanian Tomlinson-[7th/i]

Adrian Peterson-3rd

Brian Westbrook-9th

Joseph Addai-huge bust (550 yds, 5 td)39th

Steven Jackson-12th

Frank Gore-borderline bust (1000 yds, 6 td)14th

Clinton Portis-10th

Marshawn Lynch-borderline bust (1000 yds, 8 td)15th

Marion Barber-borderline bust (885 yds, 7 td)16th

Larry Johnson-huge bust (870 yds, 5 td)29th

Ryan Grant-borderline bust (1200 yds, 4 td)[22nd/i]

Willie Parker-huge bust (790 yds, 5 td)40th

Overall: 3 huge busts, 4 borderline busts

 

2009 Consensus Top 12:

Michael Turner-huge bust22nd

Adrian Peterson-2nd

Matt Forte-huge bust18th

DeAngelo Williams-borderline bust (drafted too early, but performed ok)14th

LaDanian Tomlinson-huge bust19th

Maurice Jones-Drew-3rd

Steven Jackson-10th

Chris Johnson-1st

Steve Slaton-huge bust32nd

Brandon Jacobs-huge bust29th

Brian Westbrook-huge bust61st

Overall:6 HUGE BUSTS, 1 BORDERLINE BUSTS=7 Total/12 RB's

 

 

This Year Consensus Top 12:

1. Chris Johnson-#10 RB Currently

2. Adrian Peterson-#2 RB Currently

3. Maurice Jones-Drew-#16 RB Currently

4. Ray Rice-#28 RB Currently

5. Frank Gore-#7 RB Currently

6. Steven Jackson-#15 RB Currently

7. Michael Turner-#19 RB Currently

8. Rashard Mendenhall-#3 RB Currently

9. DeAngelo Williams-#21RB Currently

10. Cedric Benson-#17 RB Currently

11. Ryan Grant-out for year, this year's first HUGE BUST

12. Shonn Greene#39 RB Currently (7 points)

Total Busts so far: 1 Huge Bust

Possible/Likely Busts: Huge Busts: Shonn Greene, Cedric Benson, Rice, Turner, DeAngelo (5 Total)

 

seems like a recurring trend for sure...7 a year basically that dont live up to the hype.

Edited October 5, 2010 by bostonsoxandy

[LosGatosEnFuegos]

Previous Years:

2005 Consensus Top 12:

LaDanian Tomlinson

Shaun Alexander

Priest Holmes-huge bust (450 yds, 7 tot td)

Willis McGahee

Dominack Davis-huge bust (950 yds, 2 tot tds)

Edgerrin James

Clinton Portis

Julius Jones-borderline bust (950 yds, 5 tds)

Jamaal Lewis-borderline bust (900 yds, 3 tds)

Deuce McAllister-huge bust (350 yds, 3 tds)

Correy Dillon

Ahman Green-huge bust (255 yds, 0 tds)

Overall: 4 huge busts, 2 borderline busts=7 busts/12 rb's

4+2=6

[bostonsoxandy]

4+2=6

 

hahhaha, no one said i could add:p

[piratesownninjas]

I don't think you can call Priest Holmes, Ahman Green or Ryan Grant busts, as they failed to live up to expectations due to injury, not poor performance. I guess I'm nit-picking here.

 

Good read for sure.

[LosGatosEnFuegos]

I don't think you can call Priest Holmes, Ahman Green or Ryan Grant busts, as they failed to live up to expectations due to injury, not poor performance. I guess I'm nit-picking here.

 

Good read for sure.

This depends on how we're looking at it.

 

If we're discussing this for the purpose of projecting their next season's stats, we can't deem them a bust because there's no saying how they would have performed had they remained healthy. So "bust" may not be the right term in that case.

 

But if we're talking about the previous season from a purely statistical angle, no matter what the cause, players who do not deliver on their high ADPs are busts. Considering the topic of the post, I think the term fits.

[bostonsoxandy]

I don't think you can call Priest Holmes, Ahman Green or Ryan Grant busts, as they failed to live up to expectations due to injury, not poor performance. I guess I'm nit-picking here.

 

Good read for sure.

 

 

That is a toss-up really on how you define bust...I usually include injury players as a bust because whats the difference between a player injured and a player sucking...not much from the statistical point-they both have points totals that are busts....

 

But again, its all about interpretation there

 

thanks for the post

andy

[bostonsoxandy]

Added years 2006 and 2008 as well...feel free to discuss

[bostonsoxandy]

Updated Results for this year, any discussion from anyone? This year's current results (six weeks in):

 

This Year Consensus Top 12:

1. Chris Johnson-#2 RB Currently

2. Adrian Peterson-#4 RB Currently

3. Maurice Jones-Drew-#18 RB Currently

4. Ray Rice-#13 RB Currently

5. Frank Gore-#6 RB Currently

6. Steven Jackson-#12 RB Currently

7. Michael Turner-#19 RB Currently

8. Rashard Mendenhall-#8 RB Currently

9. DeAngelo Williams-#26RB Currently

10. Cedric Benson-#16RB Currently

11. Ryan Grant-out for year, this year's first HUGE BUST

12. Shonn Greene#32 RB Currently (7 points)

Bust Count currently: Grant, Greene, DeAngelo, Turner, and MJD conservatively, with Benson a borderline bust at 16

[piratesownninjas]

Updated Results for this year, any discussion from anyone? This year's current results (six weeks in):

 

This Year Consensus Top 12:

1. Chris Johnson-#2 RB Currently

2. Adrian Peterson-#4 RB Currently

3. Maurice Jones-Drew-#18 RB Currently

4. Ray Rice-#13 RB Currently

5. Frank Gore-#6 RB Currently

6. Steven Jackson-#12 RB Currently

7. Michael Turner-#19 RB Currently

8. Rashard Mendenhall-#8 RB Currently

9. DeAngelo Williams-#26RB Currently

10. Cedric Benson-#16RB Currently

11. Ryan Grant-out for year, this year's first HUGE BUST

12. Shonn Greene#32 RB Currently (7 points)

Bust Count currently: Grant, Greene, DeAngelo, Turner, and MJD conservatively, with Benson a borderline bust at 16

I would say that MJD should be leading the Bust train when you compare his ADP to his production, with Ray Rice in second. With Turner you knew the risks, likewise with DeAngelo Williams... MJD and Rice's lack of production Vs ADP is massive.

[Phantom Knight]

But if we're talking about the previous season from a purely statistical angle, no matter what the cause, players who do not deliver on their high ADPs are busts. Considering the topic of the post, I think the term fits.

As you say, I am sure the OP intends only to look at the odds that an rb drafted high will not live up to his draft position. The reason why is not important to his discussion.

[jetsfan]

Updated Results for this year, any discussion from anyone? This year's current results (six weeks in):

 

This Year Consensus Top 12:

1. Chris Johnson-#2 RB Currently

2. Adrian Peterson-#4 RB Currently

3. Maurice Jones-Drew-#18 RB Currently

4. Ray Rice-#13 RB Currently

5. Frank Gore-#6 RB Currently

6. Steven Jackson-#12 RB Currently

7. Michael Turner-#19 RB Currently

8. Rashard Mendenhall-#8 RB Currently

9. DeAngelo Williams-#26RB Currently

10. Cedric Benson-#16RB Currently

11. Ryan Grant-out for year, this year's first HUGE BUST

12. Shonn Greene#32 RB Currently (7 points)

Bust Count currently: Grant, Greene, DeAngelo, Turner, and MJD conservatively, with Benson a borderline bust at 16

 

Looks like picks #1 and #2 are panning out as usual.

[Chadman]

I think this is a great point. Something to think about for me... this kind of look and thinking is what we should all be looking at from year to year. Thanks for the work.

[Delicious_bass]

I've been using this theory all the time during all my drafts every year for the past few years because it has proven to be effective. The idea is based off of the common fact that The Top-10 Running Backs have the biggest upturn from year-to-year.

 

In the data below, i did every 2 years, you only see two or three running backs stay in the top-12 each year, and usually only 1 per year proves they deserve that spot. But when looking further into the overturn, you will see that of the top-12 RB's projected that year, SEVEN of those are busts....heres some stats to break this down...

 

So how should you use this data? I think the best way to use it is during drafts in the first couple of rounds. Instead of coming in thinking I NEED to take a running back first round, you keep your options open. Like for this year, if the Top-4 RB's are off it may be worth to reach for Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers instead...or Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, or a different stud WR like Wayne who you KNOW will be there...

 

Concluding, the odds are against you when you take an RB projected in the top-12. Chances are the running back will be a disappointment for your team. Just thought these were some cool trending stats that show the shift of power from RB to WR and QB, especially in PPR leagues now with the RBBC especially.

Essentially, you're suggesting doing the opposite of the old "stud RB theory". Very interesting

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hey 2V! How come none of your buddies come up with ideas like this?

Edited October 22, 2010 by Delicious_bass

[Easy n Dirty]

Great post and analysis - I have certainly sensed a trend away from the stud RB theory in drafts I've done, especially this year - seemed like alot more WRs and QBs going in round 1 this year than in years past. I attribute this primarily to the ploiferation of RBBC.

 

So I guess the premise is that high-end RBs are less predictable and this discounts their value in round 1, maybe early round 2 as well. In order to truly validate this, though, we'd have to do the same type of analysis for high-end WRs and QBs. Assuming they prove to be more reliable to their predicted value (I've no idea, but sense that that would likely be the case), I guess you still have to factor in VBD-type theories into the selection - arguably, the spread of RBBC makes a stud RB that much more valuable as there are alot less of them than in years past, but maybe that only holds true for the top 5 or 6 RBs on the board.

 

Very interesting post, good discussion fodder.

[detlef]

Great post and analysis - I have certainly sensed a trend away from the stud RB theory in drafts I've done, especially this year - seemed like alot more WRs and QBs going in round 1 this year than in years past. I attribute this primarily to the ploiferation of RBBC.

 

So I guess the premise is that high-end RBs are less predictable and this discounts their value in round 1, maybe early round 2 as well. In order to truly validate this, though, we'd have to do the same type of analysis for high-end WRs and QBs. Assuming they prove to be more reliable to their predicted value (I've no idea, but sense that that would likely be the case), I guess you still have to factor in VBD-type theories into the selection - arguably, the spread of RBBC makes a stud RB that much more valuable as there are alot less of them than in years past, but maybe that only holds true for the top 5 or 6 RBs on the board.

 

Very interesting post, good discussion fodder.

Exactly. When I was still doing this, I did some rather exhaustive studies on the likelihood of any player panning out based on ADP. That is, top 6 picks, next 6 picks, next 6, and so on. Now, given the fact that many drafts go RB in 9 or so of the first 12 picks and probably 15 of the top 24, you may as well be doing a study on RBs.

 

Regardless, what I recall finding is that the first round was OK but not great, and things dropped off to a pretty alarming level of failure by the 3rd round. Barely half, if that, I recall did much of anything.

 

Of course, what was the takeaway besides the fact that we all don't know crap? Well, that actually was the takeaway, that you shouldn't get cute and you should never pass on a guy that you do feel good about taking because you need to fill another position. Your odds are bad enough that anyone you take is going to actually be good, that you don't need to make them worse by sliding any further down your cheat sheet than you have to. It may not score you too many points when people start comparing teams after the draft and you took WRs with 4 of your first 6 picks, but that doesn't mean a whole lot when the "stud" RB you passed on to take one of those WRs ends up being crap anyway and half the top 12 RBs come from nowhere anyway.

 

Years when I had the discipline to do this always ended up better. Years where I panicked and took a RB because "I had to" even if I was luke warm about the dude, always came back to bite me in the ass.

[Slugs3511]

Yes, this is the correct analysis of the "stud RB," however, why many people go after RBs and take chances on RBs is that there are less of them out there to choose from as compared to WRs, and even QBs.....Why do I say QBs too...? Because the difference in scoring is too close based on most scoring of 25 yds or 50 yds per throwing....

I'll give you an example....This year, I made a mistake taking Aaron Rogers in the first round at the 8th pick in a league where all TDs are 6 points......even throwing...I laughed when I got him at 1.08..Thought it was a steal....I later traded him after four weeks for AP.....How about that....I had Kyle Orton as a backup that I picked up in round 12.......He is still outscoring Rodgers....

[Big Country]

This data, while interesting, does not tell us much other than it is hard to accurately predict performance.

 

To really get anything out of it, we would need to see the same analysis done on the QBs and WRs to see if this is something that affects only RBs, or if it is just simply true across the board for all positions.

 

And, to take it a step further, would really need to look at ADP info against actual performance (value, not actual points) to compare across positions to look to see if a particular position is not only easier to rank but more consistently lives up to it's ranking.

 

Additionally, what is your source for consensus top 12?

 

 

 

Not even going to get into another argument about taking a QB early, Slugs particular example is just another argument on why a QB early is generally a very bad idea unless you are in a start 2 QB league.

[kevinkris]

This is very true, but the same thing can happen at wr and at QB.

 

In my draft, only 8 teams, I went WR/WR and landed AJ and R.moss. They have both been huge busts, but were they not two of the top 3 picks for this year at the wr position? I haven't done it but moss is very low compared to many.

 

It would be very interesting to see if this also happens at wr/qb, and even with tes to some degree. I can see qb being alot more stable, unless they get injured as the top QBs rarely drop off from year to year as much.

 

I guess what I am trying to say is, you have to take some position in the first round, and there is a chance at any position to be a dud. I think the reason there is so many more dud rbs is people expect more out of them than wrs/qbs.

Edited October 22, 2010 by kevinkris

[detlef]

Yes, this is the correct analysis of the "stud RB," however, why many people go after RBs and take chances on RBs is that there are less of them out there to choose from as compared to WRs, and even QBs.....Why do I say QBs too...? Because the difference in scoring is too close based on most scoring of 25 yds or 50 yds per throwing....

I'll give you an example....This year, I made a mistake taking Aaron Rogers in the first round at the 8th pick in a league where all TDs are 6 points......even throwing...I laughed when I got him at 1.08..Thought it was a steal....I later traded him after four weeks for AP.....How about that....I had Kyle Orton as a backup that I picked up in round 12.......He is still outscoring Rodgers....

How bout that? You're in a league with idiots. Who the hell trades AP for a QB who'd put up nice enough numbers but was certainly not making a run at Tom Brady's season from a couple of years ago.

[BrooklynCrew]

The point about QB's is well taken. Never draft a QB early. Never ever do it. I know it's tempting, it's a bad move... (again, unless it's a multi-qb league)... but you start less of them and there are plenty to be had for weekly performance. I'd love to see the data on WR's and 'busts' as well... generally it makes sense to pile up RB's and WR's and hope you hit on some of your reaches. Somebody is draft the RB's who end up in the unexpected top 12 spots.. maybe not in rounds 1-2, but you need to pile up some to have a shot at those guys.

[bostonsoxandy]

Yeah, I'm not trying to be the spokesperson of 1st-Round QB's, because I know on here I would be assassinated pretty quickly if I was...I also recognize I do need to do the research into QB's and WR's to complete the "research" I guess, just haven't had any time to do it yet. Maybe next year. But to keep this current, he's where the top 12 is at now:

 

BTW to the person who asked, I use ESPN Consensus Rankings as my source...you may argue a guy here or there but this year it was pretty unanimous.

 

1. Chris Johnson-#5 RB Currently

2. Adrian Peterson-#2 RB Currently

3. Maurice Jones-Drew-#17 RB Currently

4. Ray Rice-#16 RB Currently

5. Frank Gore-#6 RB Currently

6. Steven Jackson-#15 RB Currently

7. Michael Turner-#10 RB Currently

8. Rashard Mendenhall-#7 RB Currently

9. DeAngelo Williams-#34RB Currently

10. Cedric Benson-#18 RB Currently

11. Ryan Grant-out for year, this year's first HUGE BUST

12. Shonn Greene#37 RB Currently

Totals=

Huge Bust: Ryan Grant, Shonn Greene, DeAngelo Williams, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew

Borderlines: Cedric Benson, (maybe) SJax (? Very very borderline...)

Total: 7/12 :P

matters if you include SJax or not, by the end of the year though I fully expect him to be injured at some point and drop off...

 

another point to consider is even though I'm classifying guys like Ray Rice and MJD as huge busts, and their owners would agree with that terminology, you gotta realize that if you drafted one of them you are still getting an above average RB, a top-20/30 RB who you can start every week albeit not as a sure-fire #1RB on a team like you expected when ya drafted them

 

food for though. have at it

[delusions of grandeur]

I think that you not only have to compare this to QBs and WRs, but also to the success rate of consensus-non-top-12 backs.

 

Yes, of course you can warn people of the risk that their first round RB could be a bust, but in an age of RBBCs, the stud ones that do live up to the hype or surpass it have become ultra valuable and rare (not to mention more consistent)... That is why trying to land the non-bust stud RB is so coveted, and why people try early and often to do so. I think you're only decreasing your chances by deciding that you'll probably pass on one when one might be out there to draft... That isn't to say you SHOULD draft a RB early, but it doesn't mean you shouldn't either...

 

In waiting to try to maybe hit on a Hillis or Foster later in the draft or on the wire, you could instead end up with a Pierre Thomas, Moreno, Wells, Best, etc., etc. This is why I think you sometimes have to throw the statistics out the window that may suggest otherwise, and go with the guys you objectively think will do well.

[Seahawk]

Updated Results for this year, any discussion from anyone? This year's current results (six weeks in):

 

This Year Consensus Top 12:

7. Michael Turner-#19 RB Currently

Bust Count currently: Grant, Greene, DeAngelo, Turner, and MJD conservatively, with Benson a borderline bust at 16

 

Hands down one of the most interesting posts ive read on the Huddle since being here for a very short time. Great job.

 

I got ride of DeAngelo Last week. Greene I've keep since week two as a hopeful pay off. I think he's already a bust but for someone like me who got him for nothing there still might be value.

 

Where does Pierre Thomas figure into all this. I know were he is currently but were was he drafted ?

 

Turner: I own him and I'm scared. Injury prone, Snelling's potential but I do love his schedule so so much. What would you suggest I should do?

[Big Country]

Rbs and Qbs might be as difficult to compare as apples and oranges, but just as when you are hungry and choosing between an apple and an orange, if you are deciding between a rb and qb, you are inevitably comparing them. Not easy, but unavoidable. This year has had quite a few injuries for wrs, however when a wr gets injured, it's usually for 2 or 3 weeks and you'll still have them for the fantasy playoffs. I just looked at the adp for the top 50 wide receivers. There hasn't been one season-ending injury so far for a top 50 receiver. Though Kenny Britt at an adp of 44 is close to having his season ended.

 

I like to draft quarterbacks in the first round or second round, so I have to compare rbs and qbs yearly and it's never an easy choice. Next year, CJ, AP, and Foster are probably the only 3 running backs that I won't be able to pass up and will take over any qb. But after those three, I'll take Peyton, ARod, or Brees over any other rb, assuming 6 points for a qb td and no weird scoring rules. I like my early picks to be as predictable as possible. They don't have to win me my championship, but I don't want them to lose it for me either.

 

 

6 point passing TDs have almost no affect on value... so I assume you would make this same statement for the more standard 4 pt passing TD scoring?

[Big Country]

I disagree with your premise that 6 point passing TDs have almost no effect on value. I've read your reasons before and didn't find them convincing. But I do love how you now state it as fact instead of opinion. Big Country has decreed that 6 point passing TDs have little effect on value, so it shall be......................

 

But here would probably be a good place to copy and paste your post. It's well thought out and explained. I tried looking it up but couldn't find it.

 

 

Here's the basic premise.

 

 

The number of passing TDs between the top QB and the #12 QB is minimal. In 2009, it was a difference of 8 TDs between the top 12 QBs. In other words, when going from 4 to 6 point passing TDs, you are talking a whopping 16 point increase in scoring differential over the course of an entire season, or 1 PPG, and this is between the #1 and #12 QB. THe difference within that group is obviously small, less than a PPG.

 

Is your disagreement with the above in the math or in the idea that a 1 PPG difference between the top 12 QBs is not a significant affect on value?

 

 

In addition, and I have to do some searching for it, I did provide a post that showed the idea that the top 3-4 QBs were significantly more consistent than say QBs in the 8-12 range was not an accurate statement either.

 

 

Now, a more impactful change is PPR, which for WRs caused a 59 point swing for the #1 vs #36 WR (assuming 12 team league, start 3 WRs) in 2008 and a 68 point swing in 2009.

 

An even more impactful change than that is changes to the starting lineup, either by adding a 2nd required QB or including QBs as options for the flex.