The 7/12 Theory

[bostonsoxandy]

Did a little research done on QB's and WR"s and the diversity in top-12 projections, a little. Got this year done and current results:

 

QB:

1. Drew Brees (4)

2. Aaron Rodgers (2)

3. Peyton Manning (3)

4. Tom Brady (9)

5. Matt Schaub (16)

6.Philip Rivers (1)

7. Tony Romo (18 + INJ)

8. Brett Favre (25)

9. Joe Flacco (11)

10. Jay Cutler (21)

11. Eli Manning (6)

12. Kevin Kolb (29)

Totals: 5 busts

***Important to Note***: Unlike RB's the top-12 QB's ADP's are not nearly as high as RB's, so remember when comparing taking a top QB to a top RB you can't use these numbers, because in a draft the bottom of the top 12 isn't going to be touched until around the 4th round usually. This year there was a clear Top-7 high end QB (4th/5th round and UP) and a huge drop-off in 8-12 QB's (those don't start to go until the 7/8 rounds). So if you were comparing the strategy of an early round QB (1/2/3) to taking a RB in the 1st/2nd/3rd rounds, you have to weigh this in.

 

WR

1. Andre Johnson (17)

2. Randy Moss (29)

3. Larry Fitzgerald (21)

4. Reggie Wayne (10)

5. Brandon Marshall (28)

6. Roddy White (4)

7. Calvin Johnson (5)

8. Miles Austin (20)

9. DeSean Jackson (12)

10. Steve Smith, CAR (62)

11. Greg Jennings (6)

12. Marques Colston (24)

Totals: 7 busts

Edited November 16, 2010 by bostonsoxandy

[Big Country]

***Important to Note***: Unlike RB's the top-12 QB's ADP's are not nearly as high as RB's, so remember when comparing taking a top QB to a top RB you can't use these numbers, because in a draft the bottom of the top 12 isn't going to be touched until around the 4th round usually. This year there was a clear Top-7 high end QB (4th/5th round and UP) and a huge drop-off in 8-12 QB's (those don't start to go until the 7/8 rounds). So if you were comparing the strategy of an early round QB (1/2/3) to taking a RB in the 1st/2nd/3rd rounds, you have to weigh this in.

 

In other words, with a similar "bust rate", a much lesser disparity in scoring and availability much later in the draft for similar production, I should most definitely wait on a QB?

[MikesVikes]

Does that mean that you shouldn't draft RBs early? Or is it better to have three or four solid options in case one or two don't pan out?

[stethant]

This is a very interesting discussion, but if there' s going to be a robust analysis we need a strict definition of a bust that applies to all positions. It doesn't matter exactly what it is but it needs to be something concrete. Like, bust=

a)<25% (or maybe 50%) of predicted points value

b)difference in ADP>10 (e.g. expected #1 WR but ranks #12 at year's end)

 

Since you know the expected value of ADP by position, you should be able to then directly compare "busts" across QB, WR, RB.

Edited November 16, 2010 by stethant

[keggerz]

This data, while interesting, does not tell us much other than it is hard to accurately predict performance.

 

To really get anything out of it, we would need to see the same analysis done on the QBs and WRs to see if this is something that affects only RBs, or if it is just simply true across the board for all positions.

 

And, to take it a step further, would really need to look at ADP info against actual performance (value, not actual points) to compare across positions to look to see if a particular position is not only easier to rank but more consistently lives up to it's ranking.

 

Additionally, what is your source for consensus top 12?

 

 

 

Not even going to get into another argument about taking a QB early, Slugs particular example is just another argument on why a QB early is generally a very bad idea unless you are in a start 2 QB league.

agreed you really need to do the same across all positions to see how it all relates...for those in IDP leagues that are interested I wrote an article earlier this year about IDP Turnover http://www.thehuddle.com/x10/articles/sg-1...dp-turnover.php

[Thews40]

Interesting read. As FF evolved from TD only to points per yard, PPR has also evolved to where a top WR counts more than a RB did years ago. In other words, as scoring systems change and even out the disparity between positions, so do the hits/misses.

 

I’d add to your data that stud QB’s would prolly have a much lower bust to predicted standings rank. This year, Manning, Rogers, Brees and Brady are all about where they were supposed to be, with Rivers exceeding expectations, though he was still ranked pretty high. I guess the moral of the story is drafting a quality QB early is lower risk that a stud RB.

 

The WR/WR draft strategy was common this year. While Randy Moss is healthy, who could have predicted what happened? AJ is a monster and worth the high pick, but I’m not sure if the WR’s drafted in round two were worth it? Season is still young, but I’d bet the data would prove that stud QB’s are required to make a WR worthy of a high draft pick, as Fitzgerald didn’t live up to the post Warner Cards.

 

And lastly, my favorite, the stud TE’s. Gates was on track to be worthy of a round one pick. It’s not like injury wasn’t predictable, but the point is that I think the consensus “TE’s are deep this year” sort of didn’t pan out. Clark getting hurt didn’t help, but I guess the point for next year is that Gates is a sure #2 pick instead of a high #3.

[Turf Smurf]

Interesting read. As FF evolved from TD only to points per yard, PPR has also evolved to where a top WR counts more than a RB did years ago. In other words, as scoring systems change and even out the disparity between positions, so do the hits/misses.

 

I’d add to your data that stud QB’s would prolly have a much lower bust to predicted standings rank. This year, Manning, Rogers, Brees and Brady are all about where they were supposed to be, with Rivers exceeding expectations, though he was still ranked pretty high. I guess the moral of the story is drafting a quality QB early is lower risk that a stud RB.

 

The WR/WR draft strategy was common this year. While Randy Moss is healthy, who could have predicted what happened? AJ is a monster and worth the high pick, but I’m not sure if the WR’s drafted in round two were worth it? Season is still young, but I’d bet the data would prove that stud QB’s are required to make a WR worthy of a high draft pick, as Fitzgerald didn’t live up to the post Warner Cards.

 

And lastly, my favorite, the stud TE’s. Gates was on track to be worthy of a round one pick. It’s not like injury wasn’t predictable, but the point is that I think the consensus “TE’s are deep this year” sort of didn’t pan out. Clark getting hurt didn’t help, but I guess the point for next year is that Gates is a sure #2 pick instead of a high #3.

Best post in awhile.

 

We started the home league 10 years ago and I designed the scoring system to level RB, WR, and especially TEs via PPR and other performance (+ or -) achievements. With our flex position you are allowed to start an extra QB, RB, WR, or TE.

 

While it's a very interesting discussion, at the end of the day, it really depends on the structure of your league, and especially your particular scoring system. The other factor that hasn't been mentioned, is that you are able to keep (in my case) 1 player for next year. Who you choose to keep has a big impact on your draft strategy.

 

It's funny that you posted this, in that this year more people keep QBs and WRs then has ever happened before. (I kept an RB and drafted another RB with my first pick). Currently in 4th place in a 12 team league.

 

In the end, in my opinon, players get injured across the board in somewhat fairly equal distribution regardless of position (except kickers of course).

 

The draft (depending on your aversion to risk or not), is your best estimation of potential at that moment in time). The managers that win are the best at overcoming adversity i.e. injury, legal, cr8ppy player performance, etc.

 

It would be great to see WR and TE info as well, if you have the time. I'd do it myself, but there just aren't enough hours in the day.

[bostonsoxandy]

finals for this year...

 

 

This Year Consensus Top 12:

1. Chris Johnson-#5

2. Adrian Peterson-#2 RB

3. Maurice Jones-Drew-#12

4. Ray Rice-#10

5. Frank Gore-#20

6. Steven Jackson-#13

7. Michael Turner-#8

8. Rashard Mendenhall-#9

9. DeAngelo Williams-#60

10. Cedric Benson-#16

11. Ryan Grant-#116

12. Shonn Greene#36

 

Huge Busts: Shonn Greene, DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Grant, and Frank Gore

Borderline Busts: MJD and CedBens(?)

Total: 5/6 depending on your opinion on Benson

 

 

in conclusion, this year was a GOOD year for running backs as far as getting what you expected to get out of them.

 

-The "BIG 4" all finished within the top 20 and three finished within the top 10.

-gore, deangelo, grant were all impacted by injury which means they could have been replaced in those weeks (maybe not deangelo, he still played a good amount). and gore was a top-5 back for the majority of the year.

 

feel free to discuss!

[Turf Smurf]

'Turf Smurf' [/b]date='11/17/10 8:02am' post='3312858']

Best post in awhile.

 

We started the home league 10 years ago and I designed the scoring system to level RB, WR, and especially TEs via PPR and other performance (+ or -) achievements. With our flex position you are allowed to start an extra QB, RB, WR, or TE.

 

While it's a very interesting discussion, at the end of the day, it really depends on the structure of your league, and especially your particular scoring system. The other factor that hasn't been mentioned, is that you are able to keep (in my case) 1 player for next year. Who you choose to keep has a big impact on your draft strategy.

 

It's funny that you posted this, in that this year more people keep QBs and WRs then has ever happened before. (I kept an RB and drafted another RB with my first pick). Currently in 4th place in a 12 team league.

 

In the end, in my opinon, players get injured across the board in somewhat fairly equal distribution regardless of position (except kickers of course).

 

The draft (depending on your aversion to risk or not), is your best estimation of potential at that moment in time). The managers that win are the best at overcoming adversity i.e. injury, legal, cr8ppy player performance, etc.

 

It would be great to see WR and TE info as well, if you have the time. I'd do it myself, but there just aren't enough hours in the day.

 

Who the heck is this sober imposter?????