Arian Foster Troubling

[Company of Heroes]

Finally a bad game from Foster, but there are more troubling issues developing...

 

1. Bad outing coming on the heels of a first quarter benching last week, Does Kubiak start to mess with a good thing ???

2. Foster dinged up a bit.

3. General poor play from HOU in general, have teams started to figure out their Offense?

4. The HOU 'until the end of season' rushing strength of schedule is one of the toughest in the league...

 

May be time to deal...

 

-CoH

[giantsfan]

1. I don't hold Foster alone accountable for yesterday. The WHOLE team didin't show. They were awful. That is not on Foster. He had 2/3 guys on him right away every snap.

2. He was still in there and carrying the ball on their last series. He actually had their last touch of the day.

3. YES there is always concern with a Kubiak RB. He could pull him at any point. But what are the options? Ward who is at best average and Slaton who is been there done that and now 3rd on the depth chart? But YES this remains a concern no doubt.

4. The schedule looks good the next 4 games. KC, Indy, SD, Jacks is a nice schedule IMO. After that it gets tougher.

5. How can you deal him this week? Take yesterday as a 1 game hiccup and hope for a big outing vs. KC next week. He gets that and then you can deal him.

 

Just my opinion.

[Company of Heroes]

1. I don't hold Foster alone accountable for yesterday. The WHOLE team didin't show. They were awful. That is not on Foster. He had 2/3 guys on him right away every snap.

2. He was still in there and carrying the ball on their last series. He actually had their last touch of the day.

3. YES there is always concern with a Kubiak RB. He could pull him at any point. But what are the options? Ward who is at best average and Slaton who is been there done that and now 3rd on the depth chart? But YES this remains a concern no doubt.

4. The schedule looks good the next 4 games. KC, Indy, SD, Jacks is a nice schedule IMO. After that it gets tougher.

5. How can you deal him this week? Take yesterday as a 1 game hiccup and hope for a big outing vs. KC next week. He gets that and then you can deal him.

 

Just my opinion.

 

1. I'm head of the Foster fan club, so its not personal, its always about prospects for continued success.

4. I expect IND to be much better this time and KC has a surprisingly decent D.

5. Agreed. Depends on the deal this week, but next week would be a better time.

 

The biggest deal in evaluating a FF roster is projecting when the current production will change (drop-off or rise) and being prepared to deal or have a contingency plan ahead of time.

[daboz]

2. He was still in there and carrying the ball on their last series. He actually had their last touch of the day.

 

AND got most of his yards on that series, 16 of his 25 yards Slaton lost 4

 

1-10 (4:43) A.Foster right end pushed ob at HST 26 for 9 yards (K.Phillips).

2-1 (4:37) A.Foster left end to HST 32 for 6 yards (B.Cofield).

1-10 (4:07) M.Schaub pass short middle to A.Johnson to HST 38 for 6 yards (M.Boley).

2-4 (3:32) S.Slaton right tackle to HST 34 for -4 yards (L.Joseph; J.Tuck).

3-8 (2:54) (Shotgun) M.Schaub pass incomplete deep right to D.Anderson [D.Tollefson].

4-8 (2:48) (Shotgun) A.Foster left end to HST 35 for 1 yard (T.Thomas).

Edited October 11, 2010 by daboz

[BearBroncos]

4. The schedule looks good the next 4 games. KC, Indy, SD, Jacks is a nice schedule IMO. After that it gets tougher.

 

Interesting you think this is a nice schedule. KC and San Diego are ranked 6th and 7th against the rush while Indy is very squishy against the run, they've made vast improvements against the rush. Jacksonville is fairly strong against the run, but their weak receiver defense makes it tempting to pass on them rather than run.

 

BTW, I've never been high on Foster.. Don't get me wrong, he's a talented back but and was in a perfect situation where defenses had no clue how to defend him, however, the news is out how to defend him and teams will continue to focus in on him. We won't see numbers like we saw in weeks 1, 2 or 3. He will still be a solid RB1, low end, but I think he progressively loses value each week.

 

And that's my

Edited October 11, 2010 by BearBroncos

[MTSuper7]

I didn't watch the game or even highlights, but my best guess here is that this is a line of scrimmage issue. If the Texans' offensive line does its job, there's nothing to worry about. Didn't they just lose their LT to suspension? Not sure if there were some injuries up front as well or just the NYG front seven playing out of their minds.

[giantsfan]

Interesting you think this is a nice schedule. KC and San Diego are ranked 6th and 7th against the rush while Indy is very squishy against the run, they've made vast improvements against the rush. Jacksonville is fairly strong against the run, but their weak receiver defense makes it tempting to pass on them rather than run.

 

BTW, I've never been high on Foster.. Don't get me wrong, he's a talented back but and was in a perfect situation where defenses had no clue how to defend him, however, the news is out how to defend him and teams will continue to focus in on him. We won't see numbers like we saw in weeks 1, 2 or 3. He will still be a solid RB1, low end, but I think he progressively loses value each week.

 

And that's my

Interesting to me that Michael Bush ran for 100 + on SD yesterday. Addai and Hart ran for 100 combined on KC yesterday. And Spiller and FJax ran for over 100 on Jacks yesterday.

 

Now I am not saying they are awful bottom 5 runs D's, but make no mistake about it, NONE of those run D's scare me at all.

 

AND Foster had like 180 total yards and 2 TD's just last week.

 

I will say what I have always said. He is a top 10ish RB. Upside to be 6/7. Downside around 12/13. A low mid to low # 1 in a 12 team league.

Edited October 11, 2010 by giantsfan

[Grits and Shins]

If you were going to deal Foster why would you do it on the heels of a bad performance? The timing only hurts your position.

[Company of Heroes]

If you were going to deal Foster why would you do it on the heels of a bad performance? The timing only hurts your position.

 

Fair enough. I concede after next week in KC may be better, but he still leads most leagues in RB fantasy scoring. And it always depends on the deal...

[yo mama]

 

Relax.

[damageinc]

Arian Foster - RB - Texans

 

Coach Gary Kubiak revealed that Arian Foster (knee) was able to run with the team Monday, and called his prognosis "good" for Week 6.

 

Foster said Sunday night that he felt "fine," and he did play on the Texans' final possession. He should be good to go against the Chiefs in Week 6. Despite Sunday's 25-yard clunker, Foster still leads the league with 562 rushing yards. Chris Johnson (485) is second. Ahmad Bradshaw (449) is third.

Oct. 11 - 4:52 p.m. ET

[Randall]

Relax.

 

 

That's when they should throw it to him.

[yo mama]

That's when they should throw it to him.

Believe it or not, they did. Foster had 4 pass targets, which tied for the 3rd most pass targets of any Texan in Week 5. Considering he got banged up a little and didn't play all four quarters, you can't really hang this one on Foster. He's still the NFL's leading rusher and should be good to go next week. The Texans just had a bad day.

[kingfish247]

Doubt it's time to panic but I think the Texans will face more game situations like this past Sunday going forward. The defense is really bad, the OL is struggling, and the injury to their downfield targets (AJ, Jones, Daniels) have made the offense pretty anemic. Starting LT Duane Brown has like 1 or 2 games left on his suspension.

 

Also, I don't completely trust Kubiak on his RB decisions. He has a quick hook.... after 2 good games and 2 great ones in the first 4 weeks, it may just be time to temper expectations.

[stethant]

Foster was relatively cheap in FFL drafts - 3rd to 6th rounder or lower depending on when you drafted - and has performed not just as an RB1 but as the #1 RB so far. One bad game as part of a complete team beatdown should not send you heading for the exits. A limited track record, injuries at other skill positions, an OL suspension, and a coach of VERY questionable decision-making skills are concerns, but even if he performs like an RB2 you're still more than getting your money's worth. How crappy will you feel if you bail out early only to watch his performances continue all year? Just don't make the mistake to overpay for him next year....

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Doubt it's time to panic but I think the Texans will face more game situations like this past Sunday going forward. The defense is really bad, the OL is struggling, and the injury to their downfield targets (AJ, Jones, Daniels) have made the offense pretty anemic. Starting LT Duane Brown has like 1 or 2 games left on his suspension.

 

Also, I don't completely trust Kubiak on his RB decisions. He has a quick hook.... after 2 good games and 2 great ones in the first 4 weeks, it may just be time to temper expectations.

 

 

Unlikely. The Giants defense is a one of a kind this season. He has chewed up everybody else...

[Company of Heroes]

Foster was relatively cheap in FFL drafts - 3rd to 6th rounder or lower depending on when you drafted - and has performed not just as an RB1 but as the #1 RB so far. One bad game as part of a complete team beatdown should not send you heading for the exits. A limited track record, injuries at other skill positions, an OL suspension, and a coach of VERY questionable decision-making skills are concerns, but even if he performs like an RB2 you're still more than getting your money's worth. How crappy will you feel if you bail out early only to watch his performances continue all year? Just don't make the mistake to overpay for him next year....

 

Where he was picked has NOTHING to do with this discussion. Forget the draft. Can't only look at past production either. We're talking about the likelihood for future production.

 

It is all about value, no one is talking about dumping him. The fact is he is the leading RB in fantasy right now. If you don't think that will continue, deal him for someone you think will do better from here on out.

 

The strength of schedule is a huge deal. In most cases, I rather have an RB2 with the easiest SoS than an RB1 with the worst.

[stethant]

Where he was picked has NOTHING to do with this discussion. Forget the draft. Can't only look at past production either. We're talking about the likelihood for future production.

 

It is all about value, no one is talking about dumping him. The fact is he is the leading RB in fantasy right now. If you don't think that will continue, deal him for someone you think will do better from here on out.

 

The strength of schedule is a huge deal. In most cases, I rather have an RB2 with the easiest SoS than an RB1 with the worst.

 

I think you missed my point - in most cases he was not being drafted as an indispensable early round player. So, if he has a bad game, no big deal as there are other parts of your team to pick him up. If your RB depth is thin, though, I admit that this is a larger problem.

 

If you want to deal Foster, fair enough. I just think there's plenty of gas left in the tank for a very productive season, and none of his upcoming defenses (including Baltimore who gave up >100 to Hillis) are fear-inspiring.

[Company of Heroes]

A ton of early round RBs have been plagued by injuries, low production, or poor team play (MJD, Rice, Greene, Pierre, Knowshon, Mathews, Dwill, Beanie, & SJax to name a few) it is more than likely that many owners have been relying on Foster.

 

Late in the draft season you needed to use a first 5 round pick or better to nab Foster and for those like me that went WR/WR, Foster has been vital.

Edited October 12, 2010 by Company of Heroes

[kingfish247]

Unlikely. The Giants defense is a one of a kind this season. He has chewed up everybody else...

This is a different team than it was in week 1. AJ is nicked. Jones is nicked too. Their starting LT was suspended. Cushing was suspended (due to return). Daniels had a setback. Schaub is getting tossed around.

 

There was barely a decent run D amongst their first 4 opponents. He only managed a TD in the two easiest of the pretty easy matchups. Next up is KC (meh but playing well), bye, @IND, SD, @JAC, @NYJ, TEN, @PHI. Save for JAC that's hardly many gimmes. First 2 weeks of FF playoffs are ugly too.

 

Giants are a good team but HOU was just dismantled at home. They have a horrible D with a slate of mostly average to bad matchups the rest of the way. There are a handful of matchups that could definitely turn out like this past week. Throw in Ward's semi-emergence and Foster maintaining his #1 status is unlikely.

Edited October 12, 2010 by kingfish247

[MrTed46]

I think you missed my point - in most cases he was not being drafted as an indispensable early round player. So, if he has a bad game, no big deal as there are other parts of your team to pick him up. If your RB depth is thin, though, I admit that this is a larger problem.

 

If you want to deal Foster, fair enough. I just think there's plenty of gas left in the tank for a very productive season, and none of his upcoming defenses (including Baltimore who gave up >100 to Hillis) are fear-inspiring.

 

You can't look back and determine where you drafted a player. This is now that was then... bad mentality. I trade Foster after week 1 for White, do you think the guy who traded was saying hey Foster was a 7th round pick White was my second? No, he looked at future production.

[Capt. Stanky]

The NFL is a game all about adjustments. Why did Foster find such huge running lanes weeks 1-4? It's because teams were focused on trying to slow down the Houston passing attack. Now that AJ is hobbled, Jones is out and Daniels isn't close to 100% the defenses they face have shifted their focus to stopping the Texans running game. All it's going to take to see those huge running lanes again is a couple of big games from Schaub and AJ, or just an inferior defense, like the Raiders. Like someone stated earlier, the Giants D is playing out of its mind right now. No other team can bring in fresh DE's with great pass rushing skills that also hold up against the run all game long. Do I think Foster will remian the #1 FF RB, no. Do I think Foster will remain top 5? You bet your sweet AZZ I do.

Edited October 12, 2010 by Capt. Stanky

[MrTed46]

The NFL is a game all about adjustments. Why did Foster find such huge running lanes weeks 1-4? It's because teams were focused on trying to slow down the Houston passing attack. Now that AJ is hobbled, Jones is out and Daniels isn't close to 100% the defenses they face have shifted their focus to stopping the Texans running game. All it's going to take to see those huge running lanes again is a couple of big games from Schaub and AJ, or just an inferior defense, like the Raiders. Like someone stated earlier, the Giants D is playing out of its mind right now. No other team can bring in fresh DE's with great pass rushing skills that also hold up against the run all game long. Do I think Foster will remian the #1 FF RB, no. Do I think Foster will remain top 5? You bet your sweet AZZ I do.

 

You think he will be top 5 from here on out?

[Square]

I have been collected other RBs just in case but I'm still going to plug in Foster and see what happens this week. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst. I'll know what he is by the time playoffs roll around.

[BeeR]

The NFL is a game all about adjustments. Why did Foster find such huge running lanes weeks 1-4? It's because teams were focused on trying to slow down the Houston passing attack. Now that AJ is hobbled, Jones is out and Daniels isn't close to 100% the defenses they face have shifted their focus to stopping the Texans running game. All it's going to take to see those huge running lanes again is a couple of big games from Schaub and AJ, or just an inferior defense, like the Raiders. Like someone stated earlier, the Giants D is playing out of its mind right now. No other team can bring in fresh DE's with great pass rushing skills that also hold up against the run all game long. Do I think Foster will remian the #1 FF RB, no. Do I think Foster will remain top 5? You bet your sweet AZZ I do.

I don't, but as stated it really keys on how well the passing game can rebound. Getting Brown back and key players healthy would make all the diff.