Deathpig Posted October 20, 2010 Share Posted October 20, 2010 Homerism aside, I think the Cowboys would be one of the hardest teams to prognosticate this year. Even if you hate them (and I really dislike the Cowboys) you can't deny they have a VERY talented roster. Their record is terrible, but they have yet to lose a game by more than 7 points. You have to guess that in some game they are going to make just a few less terrible decisions/plays and win (like their one win this year). They have four losses where a single play going their way would likely have been enough to win. It's reminiscent of the Chargers of the last few years where they sleepwalk through the first handful of games and then close the season out strong. I don't think it's impossible for the Cowboys to do the same thing. I'd like their chances way more if they had a real head coach instead of a guy that will put up with Jerry Jones for a paycheck, but I don't consider the Cowboys favored by a narrow margin in a must-win game at home on MNF to be that big of a stretch. (Go Giants!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted October 21, 2010 Share Posted October 21, 2010 C'mon bro...I'm paying good money to be apart of the Huddle. That ain't right A bit late to the party but anyway... That is a misconception and in the past I proved it. So let me prove it again. Straight up (using Vegas line, my projections and the actual results: 2009 Vegas ME ACTUAL 1 W W W 2 W W L 3 W W W 4 W W L 5 W W W 7 W W W 8 W W W 9 L L W 10 W W L 11 W W W 12 W W W 13 W W L 14 W L L 15 L L W 16 W W W 17 W W W 14-2 13-3 11-5 2008 Vegas ME ACTUAL 1 W W W 2 W W W 3 W W W 4 W W L 5 W W W 6 W W L 7 W W W 8 W W W 9 L L L 10 BYE BYE BYE 11 W W W 12 W W W 13 W W W 14 L L L 15 W W W 16 W W L 17 W L L 14-2 13-3 10-6 In both years, I predicted one more loss for Dallas than Vegas did not even considering the line. As was noted previously in this thread and evident from the vegas take, the Cowboys have been enigmatic and lost more games than was commonly expected. The Cowboys were favored in 14 games in each of the last two seasons and often heavily so. Last year had I predicted a score so that the Cowboys would always cover the spread, I would have been 10-6 and yet I ended only 7-9 because in three games I predicted that Dallas would not cover the spread and yet they did. Were I siding even equal to the Vegas line, I would have done better predicting their game score than I did, let alone be more optimistic about them than the average guy (expressed in the line). Vegas SU Line me Predcted ACTUAL Actual Me DALcover1 W -5 -3 20-17 -7 34-21 L W2 W -3 -4 24-20 +2 31-33 L L3 W -9 -14 31-17 -14 21-7 W W4 W -3 -1 17-16 +7 10-17 L L5 W -9 -13 27-14 -6 26-20 L L7 W -5.5 -4 24-20 -16 37-21 L W8 W -10 -14 27-13 -21 38-17 W W9 L +3 +7 20-27 -4 20-16 L W10 W -3 -7 27-20 +10 7-17 L L11 W -11 -7 20-13 -1 7-6 W L12 W -13.5 -17 27-10 -17 24-7 W W13 W -1 -4 24-20 -7 24-31 W W14 W -3.5 +3 24-27 +3 17-20 W L15 L +7.5 +14 17-31 -7 24-17 W W16 W -7 -6 23-17 -17 17-0 L W17 W -3 -1 24-23 -24 24-0 L W14-2 7-9 10-6 Historically, I have been very good predicting them but these last couple of seasons have been major teasers with them losing several games in a manner I could not predict. They are a big problem to predict because I build a game considering the offense compared to the defense but projections go awry when there are so many penalties, special teams scores and turnovers that are extremely hard to forecast. I have been a Cowboys fan for about 40 years now. But that is separate from what I project and predict. I'd much rather be right than wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staniels12 Posted October 21, 2010 Share Posted October 21, 2010 There are lies, damn lies and statistics, but until Wade is gone you can throw out any modicum of hope for accurate Cowboys prognostication. They lose when they should win, win when they should lose, score and have it called back, find clever new ways to commit penalties, and seem hell-bent on fueling a never-ending stream of DADGUMMITS from Bum's son. It is what it is - a retarded pet that's just going to continue pissing on the couch. In my years on this site DMD has been plenty objective, but how do you account for this kind of madness? A bit late to the party but anyway... That is a misconception and in the past I proved it. So let me prove it again. Straight up (using Vegas line, my projections and the actual results: 2009 Vegas ME ACTUAL 1 W W W 2 W W L 3 W W W 4 W W L 5 W W W 7 W W W 8 W W W 9 L L W 10 W W L 11 W W W 12 W W W 13 W W L 14 W L L 15 L L W 16 W W W 17 W W W 14-2 13-3 11-5 2008 Vegas ME ACTUAL 1 W W W 2 W W W 3 W W W 4 W W L 5 W W W 6 W W L 7 W W W 8 W W W 9 L L L 10 BYE BYE BYE 11 W W W 12 W W W 13 W W W 14 L L L 15 W W W 16 W W L 17 W L L 14-2 13-3 10-6 In both years, I predicted one more loss for Dallas than Vegas did not even considering the line. As was noted previously in this thread and evident from the vegas take, the Cowboys have been enigmatic and lost more games than was commonly expected. The Cowboys were favored in 14 games in each of the last two seasons and often heavily so. Last year had I predicted a score so that the Cowboys would always cover the spread, I would have been 10-6 and yet I ended only 7-9 because in three games I predicted that Dallas would not cover the spread and yet they did. Were I siding even equal to the Vegas line, I would have done better predicting their game score than I did, let alone be more optimistic about them than the average guy (expressed in the line). Vegas SU Line me Predcted ACTUAL Actual Me DALcover1 W -5 -3 20-17 -7 34-21 L W2 W -3 -4 24-20 +2 31-33 L L3 W -9 -14 31-17 -14 21-7 W W4 W -3 -1 17-16 +7 10-17 L L5 W -9 -13 27-14 -6 26-20 L L7 W -5.5 -4 24-20 -16 37-21 L W8 W -10 -14 27-13 -21 38-17 W W9 L +3 +7 20-27 -4 20-16 L W10 W -3 -7 27-20 +10 7-17 L L11 W -11 -7 20-13 -1 7-6 W L12 W -13.5 -17 27-10 -17 24-7 W W13 W -1 -4 24-20 -7 24-31 W W14 W -3.5 +3 24-27 +3 17-20 W L15 L +7.5 +14 17-31 -7 24-17 W W16 W -7 -6 23-17 -17 17-0 L W17 W -3 -1 24-23 -24 24-0 L W14-2 7-9 10-6 Historically, I have been very good predicting them but these last couple of seasons have been major teasers with them losing several games in a manner I could not predict. They are a big problem to predict because I build a game considering the offense compared to the defense but projections go awry when there are so many penalties, special teams scores and turnovers that are extremely hard to forecast. I have been a Cowboys fan for about 40 years now. But that is separate from what I project and predict. I'd much rather be right than wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted October 21, 2010 Share Posted October 21, 2010 Homerism aside, I think the Cowboys would be one of the hardest teams to prognosticate this year. Even if you hate them (and I really dislike the Cowboys) you can't deny they have a VERY talented roster. Their record is terrible, but they have yet to lose a game by more than 7 points. I believe the average of the points that Dallas has lost by is 5.75. Just to throw some perspective another team that has the same record has lost their games by an average score of 6.4 and very few people say that they have a very talented roster (Detroit ). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted October 21, 2010 Share Posted October 21, 2010 (edited) I believe the average of the points that Dallas has lost by is 5.75. Discipline and guts enables teams to win those tight close hard fought games. We seem to lack those qualities Edited October 21, 2010 by whomper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted October 21, 2010 Share Posted October 21, 2010 Discipline and guts enables teams to win those tight close hard fought games. We seem to lack those qualities Personally, I'm just hoping this isn't the week that Dallas puts it together. I'm playing against our Cowboy homer this week in my main local and I have to start some Giants. So I have 3 Giants players (Eli, Bradshaw, Def) and he has 4 Dallas players (Romo, Felix, Witten, R. Williams) so I'm a big Giants fan this weekend and hope the the boys continue the downward spiral. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Holy Roller Posted October 21, 2010 Share Posted October 21, 2010 Is it that far fetched to say its a homer call ? Must win at home on Monday night . I actually think Dallas is going to win this game as well and if you look at my posts I am highly critical and disgusted with them I'm agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted October 21, 2010 Share Posted October 21, 2010 Maybe some of you guys should send DMD a nice pair of tube socks after the Cowboys beat the Giants this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilm Posted October 21, 2010 Share Posted October 21, 2010 Going to a conference in Dallas next week and have a party pass for MNF. What are some of the cool things to do at the stadium before and during the game??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboyz1 Posted October 22, 2010 Share Posted October 22, 2010 (edited) The Cowboys need the Victory Pants in the worst way. PLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAs................PLEASE I beg of you. I promise not to post anything homer for one week.............................PLEASE. You da man DMD. I knew you had it in ya...........Your mind thinks stats but you heart pumps blue baby.............. Edited October 22, 2010 by Cowboyz1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted October 22, 2010 Share Posted October 22, 2010 PLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAs................PLEASE I beg of you. I promise not to post anything homer for one week.............................PLEASE. This is really tempting.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 Bump for Eagles week....here's hoping DMD's prediction works out the same way it did last time he predicted a win over a division foe. Kinda funny looking back at this thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It's sad, but I'm considering starting Kitna in the first round of the playoffs. If the weather is bad in another game I might have to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lkirc Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I have a couple of questions: Why is this a "must-win" game for Dallas? This makes no sense...... Why do people think Vegas tries to predict the actual winner? Vegas sets the line to try to get equal money on each side. Because there are so many Dallas fans, the line usually favors them more so more bettors put money on the other side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I have a couple of questions: Why is this a "must-win" game for Dallas? This makes no sense...... Why do people think Vegas tries to predict the actual winner? Vegas sets the line to try to get equal money on each side. Because there are so many Dallas fans, the line usually favors them more so more bettors put money on the other side. This is a bump of an old thread . Must win games waved bye bye to Dallas 4 weeks ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lkirc Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 (edited) This is a bump of an old thread . Must win games waved bye bye to Dallas 4 weeks ago. Thanks for clearing that up Whomper. You are always there to save the day. I don't care what these other people say about you...... Edited December 8, 2010 by lkirc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 This is a bump of an old thread . Must win games waved bye bye to Dallas 4 weeks ago. The grasp of the obvious is strong with this one. /yoda Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboyz1 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Swamm that's just like you to add a few heaps of salt to the wound.........I sincerely hope to return the favor. Here's to hoping Philly gets mud stomped by a 4-8 team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Swamm that's just like you to add a few heaps of salt to the wound.........I sincerely hope to return the favor. Here's to hoping Philly gets mud stomped by a 4-8 team. Hey hey whoa whoa. Philly is playing with house money man. It doesnt matter what happens the rest of the way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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