muck Posted October 26, 2010 Share Posted October 26, 2010 (edited) As I first posted last week ... A few years ago, I ran a weekly projection model, forecasting year-end W/L % for each team. Historically, it did an excellent job of finding teams that would make the playoffs well before the rest of the NFL projected it. Well, I decided to dust off the model after not running it last year, and adding some items that I had wanted to add previously. So, this season, the model is enhanced (hopefully) and includes much more data -- now it includes the following inputs: Wins, team Losses, team Wins, historic opponents Losses, historic opponents Wins, future opponents Losses, future opponents Points scored Points allowed Points scored, historic opponents Points allowed, historic opponents Points scored, future opponents Points allowed, future opponents Plays from scrimmage, offense Plays from scrimmage, defense Yards from scrimmage, offense Yards from scrimmage, defense Yards per play, offense Yards per play, defense 3rd and 4th down conversion, offense 3rd and 4th down conversion, defense Time of posession, team Time of posession, historic opponents Penalty yards, team Penalty yards, historic opponents Turnover margin *********************************** So, without further delay, here are the projected playoffs for the coming season and the top 10 draft picks for next years' draft: AFC seedings 12-4 PIT 12-4 NYJ 10-6 TEN 10-6 KC 11-5 NE 10-6 IND NFC seedings 10-6 ATL 10-6 NYG 9-7 SEA 9-7 CHI 9-7 PHI 9-7 GB Top 10 Draft Picks: 3-13 BUF 4-12 CAR 4-12 SF 5-11 DAL 5-11 DET 6-10 DEN 6-10 CLE 6-10 JAC 6-10 CIN 6-10 MIN *********************************** DIVISIONAL STANDINGS AFC East 12-4 NYJ 11-5 NE 8-8 MIA 3-13 BUF AFC North 12-4 PIT 10-6 BAL 6-10 CIN 6-10 CLE AFC South 10-6 TEN 10-6 IND 9-7 HOU 6-10 JAC AFC West 10-6 KC 7-9 OAK 7-9 SD 6-10 DEN NFC East 10-6 NYG 9-7 PHI 9-7 WAS 5-11 DAL NFC North 9-7 CHI 9-7 GB 6-10 MIN 5-11 DET NFC South 10-6 ATL 9-7 TB 8-8 NO 4-12 CAR NFC West 9-7 SEA 8-8 ARI 8-8 STL 4-12 SF NOTE: The wins/losses are off by 1 games' outcome (255 wins v. 257 losses) across the entire NFL due to rounding, as I project a W/L percentage, and then convert that into a round number of wins and losses, the playoffs and draft orders are determined by the W/L percentage. *********************************** Teams with the easiest schedule here on out -- future opponents W/L %: 0.359 ARI 0.403 KC 0.471 STL 0.441 DEN 0.453 PIT Teams with the hardest schedule here on out -- future opponents W/L %: 0.606 CAR 0.561 TEN 0.559 HOU 0.547 CIN 0.544 OAK *********************************** Power Ranks: 1.259 PIT 1.207 NYJ 1.187 TEN 1.166 NE 1.157 IND 1.120 NYG 1.119 ATL 1.108 BAL 1.089 KC 1.056 PHI 1.054 HOU 1.035 GB 1.027 SEA 1.019 WAS 1.017 NO 1.015 CHI 1.008 SD 0.995 MIA 0.987 TB 0.961 OAK 0.953 CIN 0.941 STL 0.927 CLE 0.917 MIN 0.901 DAL 0.889 DET 0.883 DEN 0.878 ARI 0.828 JAC 0.810 SF 0.769 CAR 0.719 BUF (even though they lost, their power ranking went up 0.037 vs. last week, which I believe was the 2nd biggest improvement in the NFL behind CARs 0.059 improvement vs. last week -- note that if BUF had kicked the game winning FG instead of BAL, then BUF's Power Rank would have gone to 0.782 and their projected W/L would have moved to 4-12 and CAR would be projected to have the #1 pick in the upcoming draft) ETA: Some typos in the power ranking have been fixed. Edited October 27, 2010 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 26, 2010 Author Share Posted October 26, 2010 Below is my first attempt at projecting margin of victory based on the power rank (listed above), plus a few 'points scored' and 'points allowed' calculations: TB at ARI ... ARI beats TB by 1.4 BUF at KC ... KC beats BUF by 11.6 CAR at STL ... STL beats CAR by 8.1 MIA at CIN ... CIN beats MIA by 2.5 JAC at DAL ... DAL beats JAC by 6.7 DEN at SF ... SF beats DEN by 5.7 WAS at DET ... DET beats WAS by 1.8 GB at NYJ ... NYJ beats GB by 6.0 HOU at IND ... IND beats HOU by 5.0 MIN at NE ... NE beats MIN by 7.1 PIT at NO ... PIT beats NO by 3.3 SEA at OAK ... OAK beats SEA by 2.6 TEN at SD ... TEN beats SD by 1.2 These margin of victory calculations including giving 3.0pts to the home team. *********************************** The only two travelling teams to win are projected as being PIT (over NO) and TEN (over SD). All other home teams win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skilly Posted October 26, 2010 Share Posted October 26, 2010 Excellent work. I can't wait to see how these projections play out. For the record I think you have the AFC West nailed, and a slightly optimistic result for the Broncos at 6-10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 27, 2010 Author Share Posted October 27, 2010 Excellent work. I can't wait to see how these projections play out. For the record I think you have the AFC West nailed, and a slightly optimistic result for the Broncos at 6-10. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted October 27, 2010 Share Posted October 27, 2010 Good stuff. If the Bears make the playoffs, I will buy you a sammich. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 28, 2010 Author Share Posted October 28, 2010 I'm more than a little bummed that all this work I put into this has resulted in so little conversation... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeachBum Posted October 28, 2010 Share Posted October 28, 2010 I'm more than a little bummed that all this work I put into this has resulted in so little conversation... What's left to say? We simply buy into these numbers as gospel! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doing_it_live Posted October 28, 2010 Share Posted October 28, 2010 I'm more than a little bummed that all this work I put into this has resulted in so little conversation... I think once we have the actual results we can compare them to yours and go from there . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted October 28, 2010 Share Posted October 28, 2010 I'm more than a little bummed that all this work I put into this has resulted in so little conversation... I wouldn't sweat it. This is a thread that will provoke discussion after the games this weekend. FWIW, my first reaction was to call you crazy for predicting the Pats to finish 11-5 and second in the division, but I figured I would sit on that for a few weeks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alchico Posted October 29, 2010 Share Posted October 29, 2010 Below is my first attempt at projecting margin of victory based on the power rank (listed above), plus a few 'points scored' and 'points allowed' calculations: TB at ARI ... ARI beats TB by 1.4 BUF at KC ... KC beats BUF by 11.6 CAR at STL ... STL beats CAR by 8.1 MIA at CIN ... CIN beats MIA by 2.5 JAC at DAL ... DAL beats JAC by 6.7 DEN at SF ... SF beats DEN by 5.7 WAS at DET ... DET beats WAS by 1.8 GB at NYJ ... NYJ beats GB by 6.0 HOU at IND ... IND beats HOU by 5.0 MIN at NE ... NE beats MIN by 7.1 PIT at NO ... PIT beats NO by 3.3 SEA at OAK ... OAK beats SEA by 2.6 TEN at SD ... TEN beats SD by 1.2 These margin of victory calculations including giving 3.0pts to the home team. *********************************** The only two travelling teams to win are projected as being PIT (over NO) and TEN (over SD). All other home teams win. While I agree for the most part, DEN @ SF is in England so those numbers don't look anywhere close to real. Denver will Should win this one easily Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 29, 2010 Author Share Posted October 29, 2010 While I agree for the most part, DEN @ SF is in England so those numbers don't look anywhere close to real. Denver will Should win this one easily Completely forgot about that. The line I have there gives 3 additional points to SF as the home team ... so, I still say SF wins, but by 2.7 points not 5.7 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted November 2, 2010 Author Share Posted November 2, 2010 (edited) TB at ARI ... ARI beats TB by 1.4BUF at KC ... KC beats BUF by 11.6 CAR at STL ... STL beats CAR by 8.1 MIA at CIN ... CIN beats MIA by 2.5 JAC at DAL ... DAL beats JAC by 6.7 DEN at SF ... SF beats DEN by 5.7 WAS at DET ... DET beats WAS by 1.8 GB at NYJ ... NYJ beats GB by 6.0 HOU at IND ... IND beats HOU by 5.0 MIN at NE ... NE beats MIN by 7.1 PIT at NO ... PIT beats NO by 3.3 SEA at OAK ... OAK beats SEA by 2.6 TEN at SD ... TEN beats SD by 1.2 These margin of victory calculations including giving 3.0pts to the home team. Actual -- 7-6: TB at ARI ... TB won by 3pts (wrong) BUF at KC ... KC won by 3pts (right) CAR at STL ... STL won by 10pts (right) MIA at CIN ... MIA won by 8pts (wrong) JAC at DAL ... JAC won by 18pts (wrong) DEN at SF ... SF won by 8pts (right) WAS at DET ... DET won by 12pts (right) GB at NYJ ... GB won by 9pts (wrong) HOU at IND ... IND won by 13pts (right) MIN at NE ... NE won by 10pts (right) PIT at NO ... NO won by 10pts (wrong) SEA at OAK ... OAK won by 30pts (right) TEN at SD ... SD won by 12pts (wrong) Edited November 2, 2010 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Fan Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 I went 7-6 in my pool this week, so your math did as well as my "knowledge." Sometimes parity kinda sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 Below is my first attempt at projecting margin of victory based on the power rank (listed above), plus a few 'points scored' and 'points allowed' calculations: TB at ARI ... ARI beats TB by 1.4 TB 38-35 BUF at KC ... KC beats BUF by 11.6 KC 13-10 CAR at STL ... STL beats CAR by 8.1 StL 20-10 MIA at CIN ... CIN beats MIA by 2.5 MIA 22-14 JAC at DAL ... DAL beats JAC by 6.7 JAC 35-17 DEN at SF ... SF beats DEN by 5.7 SF 24-16 WAS at DET ... DET beats WAS by 1.8 DET 37-25 GB at NYJ ... NYJ beats GB by 6.0 GB 9-0 HOU at IND ... IND beats HOU by 5.0 IND 30-17 MIN at NE ... NE beats MIN by 7.1 NE 28-18 PIT at NO ... PIT beats NO by 3.3 NO 20-10 SEA at OAK ... OAK beats SEA by 2.6 OAK 33-3 TEN at SD ... TEN beats SD by 1.2 SD 33-25 These margin of victory calculations including giving 3.0pts to the home team. *********************************** The only two travelling teams to win are projected as being PIT (over NO) and TEN (over SD). All other home teams win. 7-6 for picking winners. You came close to the spread in 3 games (green). It's hard to beat Vegas, Muck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted November 2, 2010 Author Share Posted November 2, 2010 Thanks. A few things: 1) The 3pt MOV for home teams is purely arbitrary. 2) I have done NO statistical analysis to determine whether or not the factors / statistics I've come up with are predictive in the slightest ... they should be, but I don't know if they actually are or not. 3) This is completely and totally on the fly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slugs3511 Posted November 3, 2010 Share Posted November 3, 2010 So, you doing it again this week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted November 3, 2010 Author Share Posted November 3, 2010 So, you doing it again this week? HELLOOOOO... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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