Strength of Schedule Swings

[Company of Heroes]

I spend a lot of time looking at the SoS data, mainly to evaluate players and see which players are most likely to increase and decrease in value.

 

At about the halfway point in the season, I decided it would be interesting to look at remaining SoS compared to completed games SoS. This should give a more accurate way to evaluate players primed for an increase or decrease in value than a simple remaining SoS comparison.

 

For this exercise, I took the total remaining EoS divided by the remaining games (not including BYEs) and subtracted the completed SoS divided by the number of completed games. If positive, this indicates that the team has an easier SoS remaining than what it has previously completed.

 

I can post the QB and RB numbers tomorrow, but here are the WR results:

 

Top 25%

1. TBB 4.41 Mike Williams

2. JAX 4.34 MSW, Mike Thomas

3. DET 3.69 Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson

4. CLE 3.66 Moving right along...

5. CAR 3.22 Steve Smith

6. GBP 3.00 Jennings, etc.

7. NYG 2.24 Nicks, Smith

8. ARI 1.93 Larry Fitz

 

Bottom 25%

25. PHI -1.99 Maclin, DJax

26. BAL -2.37 Boldin

27. PIT -2.39 Ward, Wallace

28. SDC -2.41 Who knows

29. KCC -3.16 Bowe

30. BUF -3.92 Steve Johnson, Evans

31. DEN -3.93 Lloyd, Gaffney, etc.

32. CIN -4.62 Ocho, TO

 

This should give some idea of targets for buying low or selling high.

 

As for me, I'm liking the DET WRs, Fitz could be a buy low, Jennings could step it up, and Nicks and Smith may only get better.

On the other hand, I want to unload Lloyd if I can and see red flags for the CIN and BUF WRs.

Edited October 28, 2010 by Company of Heroes

[The Grey Pilgrim]

Nice!! Thank you. Looking forward to the QB and RB numbers too.

[historymike]

Nice!! Thank you. Looking forward to the QB and RB numbers too.

Very useful analysis - thanks! I was just thinking of finding room for Burleson now that Stafford is coming back.