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Strength of Schedule Swings


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At about the halfway point in the season, I decided it would be interesting to look at remaining SoS compared to completed games SoS. This should give a more accurate way to evaluate players primed for an increase or decrease in value than a simple remaining SoS comparison.

 

For this exercise, I took the total remaining EoS divided by the remaining games (not including BYEs) and subtracted the completed SoS divided by the number of completed games. If positive, this indicates that the team has an easier SoS remaining than what it has previously completed.

 

Top 25%

1 DAL 3.18 Felix, Barber

2 MIA 2.72 Brown, Ricky

3 PIT 2.69 Mendy

4 BUF 2.09 FJax, Spiller?

5 KC 2.06 Jones, Charles

6 DEN 1.73 Moreno

7 MIN 1.69 AP

8 DET 1.60 Best

 

All is not well in Dallas, but the RBs could have an easier road. I find the MIA RBs intriguing as they have also underperformed and could step it up. I targeted Mendenhall in a couple trades last week, couldn't make it happen. Also really like the KC backs. Moreno is a potential buy low.

 

Bottom 25%

25 IND -1.34 Addai

26 CIN -1.55 Benson

27 NYJ -1.86 LT, Greene

28 JAC -1.87 MJD

29 NYG -2.04 ABradshaw, Jacobs

30 NOS -2.06 Pierre, Bush

31 HOU -2.39 Foster

32 GB -3.50 BJax

 

This schedule analysis is part of the reason I suggested Foster may be in for a harder second half and was a potential sell high. Addai, Pierre, and Reggie can come back just in time for the harder part of the schedule. Red flag for an underperforming MJD. I don't think the NYG RBs will struggle that much, this is more of an endorsement on the continued success of the passing game. Wouldn't worry too much about NYJ or CIN.

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The other thing that plays a big part is committee. Even if a guy has a better SOS, but shares carries, sometimes a guy 5 spots below who doesn't share is more valuable and sometimes vice/versa.....

 

RBBC has mad the SOS tool a little bit dicier to quantify for me. Sure, the Chiefs may have a great remaining schedule, but if Charles is only getting 15 touches he may not be as valuable as a guy like Torain, with a tougher schedule, who gets 90% of the work and the ball at the goal line....

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Anyone else intrigued by those MIA backs? How does that situation shake out?

 

 

I've been holding Ricky since draft day and refuse to drop him.....so Brown owners can thank me if he stays healthy all season....

 

and I concur with the 1st comment about PT...he gets it done catching and running.....the question is how many games will he last?

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The other thing that plays a big part is committee. Even if a guy has a better SOS, but shares carries, sometimes a guy 5 spots below who doesn't share is more valuable and sometimes vice/versa.....

 

RBBC has mad the SOS tool a little bit dicier to quantify for me. Sure, the Chiefs may have a great remaining schedule, but if Charles is only getting 15 touches he may not be as valuable as a guy like Torain, with a tougher schedule, who gets 90% of the work and the ball at the goal line....

 

 

it depends on who the RB is and what style of runner as well....

 

backs like Charles and Bradshaw thrive when sharing carries because they are at their best when fresh as opposed to other backs who need to get into a rhythm..

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